Italian SARS-CoV-2 patients in intensive care: towards an identikit for subjects at risk?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate patient characteristics and factors that increase the risk of being admitted to intensive care and that influence survival in cases of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One-hundred and ninety-one SARS-CoV-2 patients were admitted to the "Fondazione Poliambulanza di Brescia" Hospital (Brescia, Lombardy, Italy) in the period 1st March 2020 to 11th April 2020. Data on demographics, clinical presentation at admission, co-morbidities, pharmacological treatment, admission to intensive care and death was recorded. Logistic regression and survival analysis were carried out to investigate the risk of being admitted to intensive care and the risk of death. RESULTS: The mean age of the study cohort was 64.6±9.9 years (range 20-88). Median BMI was 28.5±5 kg/m2. Fever (81%) and dyspnea (65%) were the most common symptoms on admission. Most of patients (63%) had at least one co-existing disease. The 157 (82%) patients admitted to intensive care were more likely to be of intermediate age (60-69 years; OR 3.23, 95% CI 1.32-8.38), overweight (OR 2.66, 95% CI 1.02-7.07) or obese (OR 5.63, 95% CI 1.73-21.09) and with lymphocytopenia (OR 2.75, 95% CI 1.17-6.89) than the 34 patients admitted to the ordinary ward. During intensive care, 50% of patients died and their death was associated with older age (HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.07-3.97), obesity (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.15-4.35) and male gender (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.02-3.57). CONCLUSIONS: We found that admission to intensive care and poor survival were associated with advanced age and higher body mass index, albeit with differences in statistical significance. Pre-existing diseases and symptoms on admission were not associated with different clinical outcomes. Interestingly, male gender was more prevalent among SARS-CoV-2 patients and was related negatively to survival, but it was not associated with more frequent admission to intensive care.

Bayesian spatial modelling for quasi-experimental designs: An interrupted time series study of the opening of Municipal Waste Incinerators in relation to infant mortality and sex ratio.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on potential health risks from Municipal Waste Incinerators (MWIs), and previous studies on birth outcomes show inconsistent results. Here, we evaluate whether the opening of MWIs is associated with infant mortality and sex ratio in the surrounding areas, extending the Interrupted Time Series (ITS) methodological approach to account for spatial dependencies at the small area level. METHODS: We specified a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate the annual risks of infant mortality and sex-ratio (female relative to male) within 10 km of eight MWIs in England and Wales, during the period 1996-2012. We included comparative areas matched one-to-one of similar size and area characteristics. RESULTS: During the study period, infant mortality rates decreased overall by 2.5% per year in England. The opening of an incinerator in the MWI area was associated with -8 deaths per 100,000 infants (95% CI -62, 40) and with a difference in sex ratio of -0.004 (95% CI -0.02, 0.01), comparing the period after opening with that before, corrected for before-after trends in the comparator areas. CONCLUSION: Our method is suitable for the analysis of quasi-experimental time series studies in the presence of spatial structure and when there are global time trends in the outcome variable. Based on our approach, we do not find evidence of an association of MWI opening with changes in risks of infant mortality or sex ratio in comparison with control areas.

A comparison between self-reported and GIS-based proxies of residential exposure to environmental pollution in a case-control study on lung cancer.

In epidemiological studies both questionnaire results and GIS modeling have been used to assess exposure to environmental risk factors. Nevertheless, few studies have used both these techniques to evaluate the degree of agreement between different exposure assessment methodologies. As part of a case-control study on lung cancer, we present a comparison between self-reported and GIS-derived proxies of residential exposure to environmental pollution. 649 subjects were asked to fill out a questionnaire and give information about residential history and perceived exposure. Using GIS, for each residence we evaluated land use patterns, proximity to major roads and exposure to industrial pollution. We then compared the GIS exposure-index values among groups created on the basis of questionnaire responses. Our results showed a relatively high agreement between the two methods. Although none of these methods is the "exposure gold standard", understanding similarities, weaknesses and strengths of each method is essential to strengthen epidemiological evidence.