Survival analysis for AdVerse events with VarYing follow-up times (SAVVY): summary of findings and assessment of existing guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The SAVVY project aims to improve the analyses of adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times and competing events (CEs). This paper summarizes key features and conclusions from the various SAVVY papers. METHODS: Summarizing several papers reporting theoretical investigations using simulations and an empirical study including randomized clinical trials from several sponsor organizations, biases from ignoring varying follow-up times or CEs are investigated. The bias of commonly used estimators of the absolute (incidence proportion and one minus Kaplan-Meier) and relative (risk and hazard ratio) AE risk is quantified. Furthermore, we provide a cursory assessment of how pertinent guidelines for the analysis of safety data deal with the features of varying follow-up time and CEs. RESULTS: SAVVY finds that for both, avoiding bias and categorization of evidence with respect to treatment effect on AE risk into categories, the choice of the estimator is key and more important than features of the underlying data such as percentage of censoring, CEs, amount of follow-up, or value of the gold-standard. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of the estimator of the cumulative AE probability and the definition of CEs are crucial. Whenever varying follow-up times and/or CEs are present in the assessment of AEs, SAVVY recommends using the Aalen-Johansen estimator (AJE) with an appropriate definition of CEs to quantify AE risk. There is an urgent need to improve pertinent clinical trial reporting guidelines for reporting AEs so that incidence proportions or one minus Kaplan-Meier estimators are finally replaced by the AJE with appropriate definition of CEs.

Percutaneous repair of moderate-to-severe or severe functional mitral regurgitation in patients with symptomatic heart failure: Baseline characteristics of patients in the RESHAPE-HF2 trial and comparison to COAPT and MITRA-FR trials.

AIM: The RESHAPE-HF2 trial is designed to assess the efficacy and safety of the MitraClip device system for the treatment of clinically important functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) in patients with heart failure (HF). This report describes the baseline characteristics of patients enrolled in the RESHAPE-HF2 trial compared to those enrolled in the COAPT and MITRA-FR trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: The RESHAPE-HF2 study is an investigator-initiated, prospective, randomized, multicentre trial including patients with symptomatic HF, a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) between 20% and 50% with moderate-to-severe or severe FMR, for whom isolated mitral valve surgery was not recommended. Patients were randomized 1:1 to a strategy of delivering or withholding MitraClip. Of 506 patients randomized, the mean age of the patients was 70 ± 10 years, and 99 of them (20%) were women. The median EuroSCORE II was 5.3 (2.8-9.0) and median plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was 2745 (1407-5385) pg/ml. Most patients were prescribed beta-blockers (96%), diuretics (96%), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers/angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (82%) and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (82%). The use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors was rare (7%). Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) devices had been previously implanted in 29% of patients. Mean LVEF, left ventricular end-diastolic volume and effective regurgitant orifice area (EROA) were 31 ± 8%, 211 ± 76 ml and 0.25 ± 0.08 cm2, respectively, whereas 44% of patients had mitral regurgitation severity of grade 4+. Compared to patients enrolled in COAPT and MITRA-FR, those enrolled in RESHAPE-HF2 were less likely to have mitral regurgitation grade 4+ and, on average, HAD lower EROA, and plasma NT-proBNP and higher estimated glomerular filtration rate, but otherwise had similar age, comorbidities, CRT therapy and LVEF. CONCLUSION: Patients enrolled in RESHAPE-HF2 represent a third distinct population where MitraClip was tested in, that is one mainly comprising of patients with moderate-to-severe FMR instead of only severe FMR, as enrolled in the COAPT and MITRA-FR trials. The results of RESHAPE-HF2 will provide crucial insights regarding broader application of the transcatheter edge-to-edge repair procedure in clinical practice.

Evaluating palliative care case conferences in primary care for patients with advanced non-malignant chronic conditions: a cluster-randomised controlled trial (KOPAL).

BACKGROUND: Patients with congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and dementia are underrepresented in specialist palliative home care (SPHC). However, the complexity of their conditions requires collaboration between general practitioners (GPs) and SPHC teams and timely integration into SPHC to effectively meet their needs. OBJECTIVE: To facilitate joint palliative care planning and the timely transfer of patients with advanced chronic non-malignant conditions to SPHC. METHODS: A two-arm, unblinded, cluster-randomised controlled trial. 49 GP practices in northern Germany were randomised using web-based block randomisation. We included patients with advanced CHF, COPD and/or dementia. The KOPAL intervention consisted of a SPHC nurse-patient consultation followed by an interprofessional telephone case conference between SPHC team and GP. The primary outcome was the number of hospital admissions 48 weeks after baseline. Secondary analyses examined the effects on health-related quality of life and self-rated health status, as measured by the EuroQol 5D scale. RESULTS: A total of 172 patients were included in the analyses. 80.4% of GP practices had worked with SHPC before, most of them exclusively for cancer patients. At baseline, patients reported a mean EQ-VAS of 48.4, a mean quality of life index (EQ-5D-5L) of 0.63 and an average of 0.80 hospital admissions in the previous year. The intervention did not significantly reduce hospital admissions (incidence rate ratio = 0.79, 95%CI: [0.49, 1.26], P = 0.31) or the number of days spent in hospital (incidence rate ratio = 0.65, 95%CI: [0.28, 1.49], P = 0.29). There was also no significant effect on quality of life (∆ = -0.02, 95%CI: [-0.09, 0.05], P = 0.53) or self-rated health (∆ = -2.48, 95%CI: [-9.95, 4.99], P = 0.51). CONCLUSIONS: The study did not show the hypothesised effect on hospitalisations and health-related quality of life. Future research should focus on refining this approach, with particular emphasis on optimising the timing of case conferences and implementing discussed changes to treatment plans, to improve collaboration between GPs and SPHC teams.

Lack of Prognostic Value of T-Wave Alternans for Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Benefit in Primary Prevention.

BACKGROUND: New methods to identify patients who benefit from a primary prophylactic implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) are needed. T-wave alternans (TWA) has been shown to associate with arrhythmogenesis of the heart and sudden cardiac death. We hypothesized that TWA might be associated with benefit from ICD implantation in primary prevention. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the EU-CERT-ICD (European Comparative Effectiveness Research to Assess the Use of Primary Prophylactic Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators) study, we prospectively enrolled 2327 candidates for primary prophylactic ICD. A 24-hour Holter monitor reading was taken from all recruited patients at enrollment. TWA was assessed from Holter monitoring using the modified moving average method. Study outcomes were all-cause death, appropriate shock, and survival benefit. TWA was assessed both as a contiguous variable and as a dichotomized variable with cutoff points <47 µV and <60 µV. The final cohort included 1734 valid T-wave alternans samples, 1211 patients with ICD, and 523 control patients with conservative treatment, with a mean follow-up time of 2.3 years. TWA ≥60 µV was a predicter for a higher all-cause death in patients with an ICD on the basis of a univariate Cox regression model (hazard ratio, 1.484 [95% CI, 1.024-2.151]; P=0.0374; concordance statistic, 0.51). In multivariable models, TWA was not prognostic of death or appropriate shocks in patients with an ICD. In addition, TWA was not prognostic of death in control patients. In a propensity score-adjusted Cox regression model, TWA was not a predictor of ICD benefit. CONCLUSIONS: T-wave alternans is poorly prognostic in patients with a primary prophylactic ICD. Although it may be prognostic of life-threatening arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in several patient populations, it does not seem to be useful in assessing benefit from ICD therapy in primary prevention among patients with an ejection fraction of ≤35%.

Effect of SGLT2 inhibitors on heart failure outcomes and cardiovascular death across the cardiometabolic disease spectrum: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have been studied in patients with heart failure, type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and acute myocardial infarction. Individual trials were powered to study composite outcomes in one disease state. We aimed to evaluate the treatment effect of SGLT2 inhibitors on specific clinical endpoints across multiple demographic and disease subgroups. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we queried online databases (PubMed, Cochrane CENTRAL, and SCOPUS) up to Feb 10, 2024, for primary and secondary analyses of large trials (n>1000) of SGLT2 inhibitors in patients with heart failure, type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (including acute myocardial infarction). Outcomes studied included composite of first hospitalisation for heart failure or cardiovascular death, first hospitalisation for heart failure, cardiovascular death, total (first and recurrent) hospitalisation for heart failure, and all-cause mortality. Effect sizes were pooled using random-effects models. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42024513836. FINDINGS: We included 15 trials (N=100 952). Compared with placebo, SGLT2 inhibitors reduced the risk of first hospitalisation for heart failure by 29% in patients with heart failure (hazard ratio [HR] 0·71 [95% CI 0·67-0·77]), 28% in patients with type 2 diabetes (0·72 [0·67-0·77]), 32% in patients with chronic kidney disease (0·68 [0·61-0·77]), and 28% in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (0·72 [0·66-0·79]). SGLT2 inhibitors reduced cardiovascular death by 14% in patients with heart failure (HR 0·86 [95% CI 0·79-0·93]), 15% in patients with type 2 diabetes (0·85 [0·79-0·91]), 11% in patients with chronic kidney disease (0·89 [0·82-0·96]), and 13% in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (0·87 [0·78-0·97]). The benefit of SGLT2 inhibitors on both first hospitalisation for heart failure and cardiovascular death was consistent across the majority of the 51 subgroups studied. Notable exceptions included acute myocardial infarction (22% reduction in first hospitalisation for heart failure; no effect on cardiovascular death) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (26% reduction in first hospitalisation for heart failure; no effect on cardiovascular death). INTERPRETATION: SGLT2 inhibitors reduced heart failure events and cardiovascular death in patients with heart failure, type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. These effects were consistent across a wide range of subgroups within these populations. This supports the eligibility of a large population with cardiorenal-metabolic diseases for treatment with SGLT2 inhibitors. FUNDING: None.

Transition from asymptomatic to symptomatic systolic chronic heart failure: rationale and design of TransitionCHF.

AIMS: Chronic systolic heart failure (CHF) is a major health burden. A relevant number of patients shows asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction (ALVSD) before symptomatic CHF or becomes asymptomatic after initiating heart failure therapy. Clinical course, prognosis, and response to pharmacological and device-based treatment are largely unknown in these two distinct groups of patients. Current pharmacological and interventional therapies do neither properly address the underlying pathophysiology nor prevent malignant loss of function. New therapeutic paradigms are needed to stop the progression from asymptomatic to symptomatic heart failure. Key questions are what causes progression of clinically asymptomatic New York Heart Association (NYHA) I heart failure to overt heart failure (>NYHA I) in some but not all patients and the underlying reasons for this transition. This requires the identification of disease mechanisms and biomarkers that predict outcome in well-defined cohorts for innovative preclinical and clinical trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: TransitionCHF is a prospective, multicentre, longitudinal pathophysiological evaluation cohort study in patients with asymptomatic systolic dysfunction NYHA I and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40%. The cohort comprises both incidental findings and patients who had become asymptomatic after a previous symptomatic event. TransitionCHF has recruited 1000 patients with ALVSD caused by various aetiologies in 20 university heart failure clinics across Germany. Both patients with and without comorbidities at study entry will be recruited. Patients will be systematically investigated and followed up annually over the course of the study. The primary composite endpoint is time to hospitalization for heart failure and cardiovascular death. The secondary endpoints assess time to all-cause mortality, to cardiovascular mortality, to heart failure mortality, to all-cause hospitalization, to heart failure hospitalization, and to recurrent heart failure hospitalizations, as well as time to assist device implantation/transplantation. Additional investigations focusing on biomarkers, comorbidities, gender aspects, nutrition, and functional parameters including quality of life will be performed. CONCLUSIONS: TransitionCHF will provide a more thorough pathophysiological understanding of the progression of asymptomatic systolic dysfunction into symptomatic heart failure that will help develop therapies tailored to prevent progressive heart failure.

Randomized investigation of the MitraClip device in heart failure: Design and rationale of the RESHAPE-HF2 trial design.

AIMS: The safety and effectiveness of the MitraClip device to treat functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) has been tested in previous clinical trials yielding somewhat heterogeneous results in heart failure (HF) patients. Over time, the MitraClip device system has been modified and clinical practice evolved to consider also less severely diseased HF patients with FMR for this therapeutic option. The RESHAPE-HF2 trial aims to assess the safety and effectiveness of the MitraClip device system on top of medical therapy considered optimal in the treatment of clinically significant FMR in symptomatic patients with chronic HF. METHODS: The RESHAPE-HF2 is an investigator-initiated, prospective, randomized, parallel-controlled, multicentre trial designed to evaluate the use of the MitraClip device (used in the most up-to-date version as available at sites) plus optimal standard of care therapy (device group) compared to optimal standard of care therapy alone (control group). Eligible subjects have signs and symptoms of HF (New York Heart Association [NYHA] class II-IV despite optimal therapy), and have moderate-to-severe or severe FMR, as confirmed by a central echocardiography core laboratory; have an ejection fraction between ≥20% and ≤50% (initially 15-35% for NYHA class II patients, and 15-45% for NYHA class III/IV patients); have been adequately treated per applicable standards, and have received appropriate revascularization and cardiac resynchronization therapy, if eligible; had a HF hospitalization or elevated natriuretic peptides (B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP] ≥300 pg/ml or N-terminal proBNP ≥1000 pg/ml) in the last 90 days; and in whom isolated mitral valve surgery is not a recommended treatment option. The trial has three primary endpoints, which are these: (i) the composite rate of total (first and recurrent) HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death during 24 months of follow-up, (ii) the rate of total (i.e. first and recurrent) HF hospitalizations within 24 months, and (iii) the change from baseline to 12 months in the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire overall score. The three primary endpoints will be analysed using the Hochberg procedure to control the familywise type I error rate across the three hypotheses. CONCLUSIONS: The RESHAPE-HF2 trial will provide sound evidence on the MitraClip device and its effects in HF patients with FMR. The recruitment was recently completed with 506 randomized patients.

Methods for non-proportional hazards in clinical trials: A systematic review.

For the analysis of time-to-event data, frequently used methods such as the log-rank test or the Cox proportional hazards model are based on the proportional hazards assumption, which is often debatable. Although a wide range of parametric and non-parametric methods for non-proportional hazards has been proposed, there is no consensus on the best approaches. To close this gap, we conducted a systematic literature search to identify statistical methods and software appropriate under non-proportional hazard. Our literature search identified 907 abstracts, out of which we included 211 articles, mostly methodological ones. Review articles and applications were less frequently identified. The articles discuss effect measures, effect estimation and regression approaches, hypothesis tests, and sample size calculation approaches, which are often tailored to specific non-proportional hazard situations. Using a unified notation, we provide an overview of methods available. Furthermore, we derive some guidance from the identified articles.

Health economic evaluation of blended collaborative care for older multimorbid heart failure patients: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Integrated care, in particular the 'Blended Collaborative Care (BCC)' strategy, may have the potential to improve health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in multimorbid patients with heart failure (HF) and psychosocial burden at no or low additional cost. The ESCAPE trial is a randomised controlled trial for the evaluation of a BCC approach in five European countries. For the economic evaluation of alongside this trial, the four main objectives were: (i) to document the costs of delivering the intervention, (ii) to assess the running costs across study sites, (iii) to evaluate short-term cost-effectiveness and cost-utility compared to providers' usual care, and (iv) to examine the budgetary implications. METHODS: The trial-based economic analyses will include cross-country cost-effectiveness and cost-utility assessments from a payer perspective. The cost-utility analysis will calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) using the EQ-5D-5L and national value sets. Cost-effectiveness will include the cost per hospital admission avoided and the cost per depression-free days (DFD). Resource use will be measured from different sources, including electronic medical health records, standardised questionnaires, patient receipts and a care manager survey. Uncertainty will be addressed using bootstrapping. DISCUSSION: The various methods and approaches used for data acquisition should provide insights into the potential benefits and cost-effectiveness of a BCC intervention. Providing the economic evaluation of ESCAPE will contribute to a country-based structural and organisational planning of BCC (e.g., the number of patients that may benefit, how many care managers are needed). Improved care is expected to enhance health-related quality of life at little or no extra cost. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study follows CHEERS2022 and is registered at the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS00025120).

[OPTINOFA-Intelligent assistance service for structured assessment in the emergency department]. / OPTINOFA ­ Intelligenter Assistenzdienst zur strukturierten Ersteinschätzung in der Notaufnahme.

BACKGROUND: Case numbers in central emergency departments (EDs) have risen during the past decade in Germany, leading to recurrent overcrowding, increased risks in emergency care, and elevated costs. Particularly the fraction of outpatient emergency treatments has increased disproportionately. Within the framework of the Optimization of emergency care by structured triage with intelligent assistant service (OPTINOFA, Förderkennzeichen [FKZ] 01NVF17035) project, an intelligent assistance service was developed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: New triage algorithms were developed for the 20 most frequent leading symptoms on the basis of established triage systems (emergency severity index, ESI; Manchester triage system, MTS) and provided as web-based intelligent assistance services on mobile devices. To evaluate the validity, reliability, and safety of the new OPTINOFA triage instrument, a pilot study was conducted in three EDs after ethics committee approval. RESULTS: In the pilot study, n = 718 ED patients were included (age 59.1 ± 22 years; 349 male, 369 female). With respect to disposition (out-/inpatient), a sensitivity of 91.1% and a specificity of 40.7%, and a good correlation with the OPTINOFA triage levels were detected (Spearman's rank correlation ρ = 0.41). Furthermore, the area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of disposition according to the OPTINOFA triage level was 0.73. The in-hospital mortality rate of OPTINOFA triage levels 4 and 5 was 0%. The association between the length of ED stay and the OPTINOFA triage level was shown to be significant (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The results of the pilot study demonstrate the safety and validity of the new triage system OPTINOFA. By definition of both urgency and emergency care level, new customized perspectives for load reduction in German EDs via a closer cooperation between out- and inpatient sectors of emergency care could be established.

A diagnostic phase III/IV seamless design to investigate the diagnostic accuracy and clinical effectiveness using the example of HEDOS and HEDOS II.

The development process of medical devices can be streamlined by combining different study phases. Here, for a diagnostic medical device, we present the combination of confirmation of diagnostic accuracy (phase III) and evaluation of clinical effectiveness regarding patient-relevant endpoints (phase IV) using a seamless design. This approach is used in the Thyroid HEmorrhage DetectOr Study (HEDOS & HEDOS II) investigating a post-operative hemorrhage detector named ISAR-M THYRO® in patients after thyroid surgery. Data from the phase III trial are reused as external controls in the control group of the phase IV trial. An unblinded interim analysis is planned between the two study stages which includes a recalculation of the sample size for the phase IV part after completion of the first stage of the seamless design. The study concept presented here is the first seamless design proposed in the field of diagnostic studies. Hence, the aim of this work is to emphasize the statistical methodology as well as feasibility of the proposed design in relation to the planning and implementation of the seamless design. Seamless designs can accelerate the overall trial duration and increase its efficiency in terms of sample size and recruitment. However, careful planning addressing numerous methodological and procedural challenges is necessary for successful implementation as well as agreement with regulatory bodies.

On the role of benchmarking data sets and simulations in method comparison studies.

Method comparisons are essential to provide recommendations and guidance for applied researchers, who often have to choose from a plethora of available approaches. While many comparisons exist in the literature, these are often not neutral but favor a novel method. Apart from the choice of design and a proper reporting of the findings, there are different approaches concerning the underlying data for such method comparison studies. Most manuscripts on statistical methodology rely on simulation studies and provide a single real-world data set as an example to motivate and illustrate the methodology investigated. In the context of supervised learning, in contrast, methods are often evaluated using so-called benchmarking data sets, that is, real-world data that serve as gold standard in the community. Simulation studies, on the other hand, are much less common in this context. The aim of this paper is to investigate differences and similarities between these approaches, to discuss their advantages and disadvantages, and ultimately to develop new approaches to the evaluation of methods picking the best of both worlds. To this aim, we borrow ideas from different contexts such as mixed methods research and Clinical Scenario Evaluation.

QRS complex and T wave planarity for the efficacy prediction of automatic implantable defibrillators.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that in recipients of primary prophylactic implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs), the non-planarity of ECG vector loops predicts (a) deaths despite ICD protection and (b) appropriate ICD shocks. METHODS: Digital pre-implant ECGs were collected in 1948 ICD recipients: 21.4% females, median age 65 years, 61.5% ischaemic heart disease (IHD). QRS and T wave three-dimensional loops were constructed using singular value decomposition that allowed to measure the vector loop planarity. The non-planarity, that is, the twist of the three-dimensional loops out of a single plane, was related to all-cause mortality (n=294; 15.3% females; 68.7% IHD) and appropriate ICD shocks (n=162; 10.5% females; 87.7% IHD) during 5-year follow-up after device implantation. Using multivariable Cox regression, the predictive power of QRS and T wave non-planarity was compared with that of age, heart rate, left ventricular ejection fraction, QRS duration, spatial QRS-T angle, QTc interval and T-peak to T-end interval. RESULTS: QRS non-planarity was significantly (p<0.001) associated with follow-up deaths despite ICD protection with HR of 1.339 (95% CI 1.165 to 1.540) but was only univariably associated with appropriate ICD shocks. Non-planarity of the T wave loop was the only ECG-derived index significantly (p<0.001) associated with appropriate ICD shocks with multivariable Cox regression HR of 1.364 (1.180 to 1.576) but was not associated with follow-up mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The analysed data suggest that QRS and T wave non-planarity might offer distinction between patients who are at greater risk of death despite ICD protection and those who are likely to use the defibrillator protection.

Time to Disability Milestones and Annualized Relapse Rates in NMOSD and MOGAD.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate accumulation of disability in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein-antibody-associated disease (MOGAD) in a changing treatment landscape. We aimed to identify risk factors for the development of disability milestones in relation to disease duration, number of attacks, and age. METHODS: We analyzed data from individuals with NMOSD and MOGAD from the German Neuromyelitis Optica Study Group registry. Applying survival analyses, we estimated risk factors and computed time to disability milestones as defined by the Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS). RESULTS: We included 483 patients: 298 AQP4-IgG+ NMOSD, 52 AQP4-IgG-/MOG-IgG- NMOSD patients, and 133 patients with MOGAD. Despite comparable annualized attack rates, disability milestones occurred earlier and after less attacks in NMOSD patients than MOGAD patients (median time to EDSS 3: AQP4-IgG+ NMOSD 7.7 (95% CI 6.6-9.6) years, AQP4-IgG-/MOG-IgG- NMOSD 8.7) years, MOGAD 14.1 (95% CI 10.4-27.6) years; EDSS 4: 11.9 (95% CI 9.7-14.7), 11.6 (95% lower CI 7.6) and 20.4 (95% lower CI 14.1) years; EDSS 6: 20.1 (95% CI 16.5-32.1), 20.7 (95% lower CI 11.6), and 37.3 (95% lower CI 29.4) years; and EDSS 7: 34.2 (95% lower CI 31.1) for AQP4-IgG+ NMOSD). Higher age at onset increased the risk for all disability milestones, while risk of disability decreased over time. INTERPRETATION: AQP4-IgG+ NMOSD, AQP4-IgG-/MOG-IgG- NMOSD, and MOGAD patients show distinctive relapse-associated disability progression, with MOGAD having a less severe disease course. Investigator-initiated research has led to increasing awareness and improved treatment strategies appearing to ameliorate disease outcomes for NMOSD and MOGAD. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:720-732.

Patient-reported outcome parameters and disability worsening in progressive multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: Detection and prediction of disability progression is a significant unmet need in people with progressive multiple sclerosis (PwPMS). Government and health agencies have deemed the use of patient-reported outcomes measurements (PROMs) in clinical practice and clinical trials a major strategic priority. Nevertheless, data documenting the clinical utility of PROMs in neurological diseases is scarce. This study evaluates if assessment of PROMs could track progression in PwPMS. METHODS: Emerging blood Biomarkers in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (EmBioProMS) investigated PROMs (Beck depression inventory-II (BDI-II), multiple sclerosis impact scale-29 (MSIS-29), fatigue scale for motor and cognition (FSMC)) in PwPMS (primary [PPMS] and secondary progressive MS [SPMS]). PROMs were evaluated longitudinally and compared between participants with disability progression (at baseline; retrospective evidence of disability progression (EDP), and during follow up (FU); prospective evidence of confirmed disability progression (CDP)) and those without progression. In an independent cohort of placebo participants of the phase III ORATORIO trial in PPMS, the diagnostic and prognostic value of another PROMs score (36-Item Short Form Survey [SF-36]) regarding CDP was evaluated. RESULTS: EmBioProMS participants with EDP in the two years prior to inclusion (n = 136/227), or who suffered from CDP during FU (number of events= 88) had worse BDI-II, MSIS-29, and FSMC scores compared to PwPMS without progression. In addition, baseline MSIS29physical above 70th, 80th, and 90th percentiles predicted future CDP/ progression independent of relapse activity in EmBioProMS PPMS participants (HR of 3.7, 6.9, 6.7, p = 0.002, <0.001, and 0.001, respectively). In the placebo arm of ORATORIO (n = 137), the physical component score (PCS) of SF-36 worsened at week 120 compared to baseline, in cases who experienced progression over the preceding trial period (P = 0.018). Worse PCS at baseline was associated with higher hazard ratios of disability accumulation over the subsequent 120 weeks (HR: 2.01 [30th-], 2.11 [20th-], and 2.8 [10th percentile], P = 0.007, 0.012 and 0.005, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: PROMs could provide additional, practical, cost-efficient, and remotely accessible insight about disability progression in PMS through standardized, structured, and quantifiable patient feedback.

Interim decision making in seamless trial designs: An application in an adaptive dose-finding study in a rare kidney disease.

Adaptive seamless trial designs, combining the learning and confirming cycles of drug development in a single trial, have gained popularity in recent years. Adaptations may include dose selection, sample size re-estimation and enrichment of the study population. Despite methodological advances and recognition of the potential efficiency gains such designs offer, their implementation, including how to enable efficient decision making on the adaptations in interim analyzes, remains a key challenge in their adoption. This manuscript uses a case study of an adaptive seamless proof-of-concept (Phase 2a)/dose-finding (Phase 2b) to showcase potential adaptive features that can be implemented in trial designs at earlier development stages and the role of simulations in assessing the design operating characteristics and specifying the decision rules for the adaptations. It further outlines the elements needed to support successful interim analysis decision making on the adaptations while safeguarding study integrity, including the role of different stakeholders, interactive simulation-based tools to facilitate decision making and operational aspects requiring preplanning. The benefits of the adaptive Phase 2a/2b design chosen compared to following the traditional two separate studies (2a and 2b) paradigm are discussed. With careful planning and appreciation of their complexity and components needed for their implementation, seamless adaptive designs have the potential to yield significant savings both in terms of time and resources.

How trace plots help interpret meta-analysis results.

The trace plot is seldom used in meta-analysis, yet it is a very informative plot. In this article, we define and illustrate what the trace plot is, and discuss why it is important. The Bayesian version of the plot combines the posterior density of τ , the between-study standard deviation, and the shrunken estimates of the study effects as a function of τ . With a small or moderate number of studies, τ is not estimated with much precision, and parameter estimates and shrunken study effect estimates can vary widely depending on the correct value of τ . The trace plot allows visualization of the sensitivity to τ along with a plot that shows which values of τ are plausible and which are implausible. A comparable frequentist or empirical Bayes version provides similar results. The concepts are illustrated using examples in meta-analysis and meta-regression; implementation in R is facilitated in a Bayesian or frequentist framework using the bayesmeta and metafor packages, respectively.

High Levels of Perivascular Inflammation and Active Demyelinating Lesions at Time of Death Associated with Rapidly Progressive Multiple Sclerosis Disease Course: A Retrospective Postmortem Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Analysis of postmortem multiple sclerosis (MS) tissues combined with in vivo disease milestones suggests that whereas perivascular white matter infiltrates are associated with demyelinating activity in the initial stages, leptomeningeal immune cell infiltration, enriched in B cells, and associated cortical lesions contribute to disease progression. We systematically examine the association of inflammatory features and white matter demyelination at postmortem with clinical milestones. METHODS: In 269 MS brains, 20 sites were examined using immunohistochemistry for active lesions (ALs) and perivenular inflammation (PVI). In a subset of 22, a detailed count of CD20+ B cells and CD3+ T cells in PVIs was performed. RESULTS: ALs were detected in 22%, whereas high levels of PVI were detected in 52% of cases. ALs were present in 35% of cases with high levels of PVI. Shorter time from onset of progression to death was associated with increased prevalence and higher levels of PVI (both p < 0.0001). Shorter time from onset of progression to wheelchair use was associated with higher prevalence of ALs (odds ratio [OR] = 0.921, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.858-0.989, p = 0.0230) and higher level of PVI (OR = 0.932, 95% CI = 0.886-0.981, p = 0.0071). High levels of PVI were associated with meningeal inflammation and increased cortical demyelination and significantly higher levels of B lymphocytes within the PVI. INTERPRETATION: ALs, a feature of early disease stage, persist up to death in a subgroup with high levels of PVI. These features link to a rapid progressive phase and higher levels of meningeal inflammation and B-cell infiltrates, supporting the hypothesis that chronic inflammation drives progression in MS. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:706-719.