Good-Moderate boundary setting for the environmental status assessment of the macrozoobenthos communities with the Benthic Quality Index (BQI) in the south-western Baltic Sea.

The status assessment of the macrofauna community under the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires threshold values that mark the transition from good to moderate conditions (G-M boundaries). Using the example of the Benthic Quality Index (BQI) in the south-western Baltic Sea, we demonstrate the possibilities and restrictions of i) defining G-M boundaries using reference areas, historical data and a statistical method and ii) the subsequent evaluation of the resulting G-M boundaries using disturbance data. The historical data from the period 1911 to 1929 proved to be unsuitable for defining G-M boundaries due to their data quality. The G-M boundaries calculated using the statistical method delineated high disturbance values more reliably than those based on reference areas. We conclude that disturbance data are very useful to evaluate G-M boundaries for their suitability, but data on all state conditions are needed.

Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate.

For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission's Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution's lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate.

Applying a combined geospatial and farm scale model to identify suitable locations for mussel farming.

Mussel farming has increasingly come into focus as a potential mitigation measure for fish farms and eutrophication, in addition to being a food source. This study presents a GIS-based suitability analysis combined with a farm scale model to identify appropriate mussel farming sites. The sites are investigated in terms of potential mussel harvest, nutrient removal, and effects on water transparency. The model is applied to the south-western Baltic Sea. The identified suitable area is about 5-8% of the case study extent. The model shows that elevated chlorophyll levels stimulate mussel growth and that upon mussel harvest, nutrients can be removed. A single mussel farm cannot compensate for all nutrients emitted by a fish farm, but it can increase water transparency up to at least 200 m from the farm. Potential nutrient removal and water transparency increases are essential criteria for site selection in eutrophic seas, such as the Baltic Sea.

Variation in benthic long-term data of transitional waters: Is interpretation more than speculation?

Biological long-term data series in marine habitats are often used to identify anthropogenic impacts on the environment or climate induced regime shifts. However, particularly in transitional waters, environmental properties like water mass dynamics, salinity variability and the occurrence of oxygen minima not necessarily caused by either human activities or climate change can attenuate or mask apparent signals. At first glance it very often seems impossible to interpret the strong fluctuations of e.g. abundances or species richness, since abiotic variables like salinity and oxygen content vary simultaneously as well as in apparently erratic ways. The long-term development of major macrozoobenthic parameters (abundance, biomass, species numbers) and derivative macrozoobenthic indices (Shannon diversity, Margalef, Pilou's evenness and Hurlbert) has been successfully interpreted and related to the long-term fluctuations of salinity and oxygen, incorporation of the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO index), relying on the statistical analysis of modelled and measured data during 35 years of observation at three stations in the south-western Baltic Sea. Our results suggest that even at a restricted spatial scale the benthic system does not appear to be tightly controlled by any single environmental driver and highlight the complexity of spatially varying temporal response.

Biotope map of the German Baltic Sea.

Full-coverage maps on the distribution of marine biotopes are a necessary basis for Nature Conservation and Marine Spatial Planning. Yet biotope maps do not exist in many regions. We are generating the first full-coverage biotope map for the German Baltic Sea according to the HELCOM Underwater biotope and habitat classification system (HUB). Species distribution modelling is applied to create full-coverage spatial information of biological features. The results of biomass modelling of twelve target taxa and presence/absence modelling of three target taxa enabled the identification of biological levels up to HUB level 6. Environmental data on bathymetry, light penetration depth and substrate are used to identify habitat levels. HUB biotope levels were combined with HUB habitat levels to create a biotope map. Altogether, 68 HUB biotopes are identified in the German Baltic Sea. The new biotope map combining substrate characteristics and biological communities will facilitate marine management in the area.