A shift in transitional forests of the North American boreal will persist through 2100.

High northern latitude changes with Arctic amplification across a latitudinal forest gradient suggest a shift towards an increased presence of trees and shrubs. The persistence of change may depend on the future scenarios of climate and on the current state, and site history, of forest structure. Here, we explore the persistence of a gradient-based shift in the boreal by connecting current forest patterns to recent tree cover trends and future modeled estimates of canopy height through 2100. Results show variation in the predicted potential height changes across the structural gradient from the boreal forest through the taiga-tundra ecotone. Positive potential changes in height are concentrated in transitional forests, where recent positive changes in cover prevail, while potential change in boreal forest is highly variable. Results are consistent across climate scenarios, revealing a persistent biome shift through 2100 in North America concentrated in transitional landscapes regardless of climate scenario.

Prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity and associated factors in Peru / Prevalencia de sobrepeso y obesidad infantiles y de sus factores asociados en el Perú

Objective. To determine the prevalence of and factors associated with childhood overweight and obesity among a cohort of children 7–8 years of age in Peru. Methods. This was a cross-sectional secondary analysis of data from the Young Lives longitudinal study of childhood poverty. The sample was a cohort of 1 737 children 7–8 years of age in 2009. Prevalence of overweight and obesity was assessed using body mass index-forage Z-scores. Logistic regression was used to determine associations with a number of individual, household, and community factors. Results. Prevalences of overweight and obesity were 19.2% and 8.6%, respectively. A prevalence of 32.0% and 23.5% overweight and obesity was found among males and females, respectively. High socioeconomic status, living in Lima, having a mother who was overweight or obese, being male, and being an only child or having only one sibling were associated with being overweight and obese at this age. Conclusions. This study shows a high prevalence of childhood and maternal overweight and obesity in Peru. In contrast to findings in many high-income countries, the findings in Peru indicate that children from wealthier households were more likely to be overweight or obese than those from poorer households. In addition, there is something particularly obesogenic about the Lima environment that merits further investigation, and several key issues to consider when targeting future interventions and research.

Objetivo. Determinar la prevalencia de sobrepeso y obesidad infantiles y de sus factores asociados en una cohorte de niños de 7 y 8 años de edad en el Perú. Métodos. El presente estudio es un análisis secundario, de tipo transversal, de los datos generados por el ensayo longitudinal sobre la pobreza en la niñez conocido por Vidas jóvenes. La muestra se compuso de una cohorte de 1 737 niños que tenían 7 y 8 años de edad en 2009. La prevalencia de sobrepeso y obesidad se evaluó mediante el uso de la puntuación z del índice de masa corporal para la edad. Se llevó a cabo una regresión logística con objeto de detectar posibles asociaciones con diversos factores individuales, domésticos y comunitarios. Resultados. El sobrepeso y la obesidad mostraron prevalencias de 19,2% y 8,6%, respectivamente. Se halló una prevalencia de sobrepeso y obesidad de 32,0% y 23,5% en niños y niñas, respectivamente. Varios factores mostraron una asociación con el sobrepeso y la obesidad a esta edad: pertenecer a un estrato socioeconómico alto; vivir en Lima; tener una madre con sobrepeso u obesidad; ser de sexo masculino; y ser hijo único o tener un solo hermano o hermana. Conclusiones. El presente estudio pone de manifiesto la alta prevalencia de obesidad materna e infantil en el Perú. Los resultados observados en este país, que contrastan con los provenientes de muchos países de ingresos altos, apuntan a una mayor propensión al exceso de peso o a la obesidad entre los niños de hogares más ricos que entre los de hogares más pobres. Además, existe algún factor especialmente obesógeno en el ambiente de Lima que debe investigarse más a fondo, así como varios factores esenciales que deberán tenerse en cuenta a la hora de determinar cómo enfocar las intervenciones e investigaciones en un futuro.

Prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity and associated factors in Peru / Prevalencia de sobrepeso y obesidad infantiles y de sus factores asociados en el Perú

OBJECTIVE:To determine the prevalence of and factors associated with childhood overweight and obesity among a cohort of children 7-8 years of age in Peru. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional secondary analysis of data from the Young Lives longitudinal study of childhood poverty. The sample was a cohort of 1 737 children 7-8 years of age in 2009. Prevalence of overweight and obesity was assessed using body mass index-forage Z-scores. Logistic regression was used to determine associations with a number of individual, household, and community factors. RESULTS: Prevalences of overweight and obesity were 19.2% and 8.6%, respectively. A prevalence of 32.0% and 23.5% overweight and obesity was found among males and females, respectively. High socioeconomic status, living in Lima, having a mother who was overweight or obese, being male, and being an only child or having only one sibling were associated with being overweight and obese at this age. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a high prevalence of childhood and maternal overweight and obesity in Peru. In contrast to findings in many high-income countries, the findings in Peru indicate that children from wealthier households were more likely to be overweight or obese than those from poorer households. In addition, there is something particularly obesogenic about the Lima environment that merits further investigation, and several key issues to consider when targeting future interventions and research.

OBJETIVO:Determinar la prevalencia de sobrepeso y obesidad infantiles y de sus factores asociados en una cohorte de niños de 7 y 8 años de edad en el Perú. MÉTODOS: El presente estudio es un análisis secundario, de tipo transversal, de los datos generados por el ensayo longitudinal sobre la pobreza en la niñez conocido por Vidas jóvenes. La muestra se compuso de una cohorte de 1 737 niños que tenían 7 y 8 años de edad en 2009. La prevalencia de sobrepeso y obesidad se evaluó mediante el uso de la puntuación z del índice de masa corporal para la edad. Se llevó a cabo una regresión logística con objeto de detectar posibles asociaciones con diversos factores individuales, domésticos y comunitarios. RESULTADOS: El sobrepeso y la obesidad mostraron prevalencias de 19,2% y 8,6%, respectivamente. Se halló una prevalencia de sobrepeso y obesidad de 32,0% y 23,5% en niños y niñas, respectivamente. Varios factores mostraron una asociación con el sobrepeso y la obesidad a esta edad: pertenecer a un estrato socioeconómico alto; vivir en Lima; tener una madre con sobrepeso u obesidad; ser de sexo masculino; y ser hijo único o tener un solo hermano o hermana. CONCLUSIONES: El presente estudio pone de manifiesto la alta prevalencia de obesidad materna e infantil en el Perú. Los resultados observados en este país, que contrastan con los provenientes de muchos países de ingresos altos, apuntan a una mayor propensión al exceso de peso o a la obesidad entre los niños de hogares más ricos que entre los de hogares más pobres. Además, existe algún factor especialmente obesógeno en el ambiente de Lima que debe investigarse más a fondo, así como varios factores esenciales que deberán tenerse en cuenta a la hora de determinar cómo enfocar las intervenciones e investigaciones en un futuro.

Prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity and associated factors in Peru.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of and factors associated with childhood overweight and obesity among a cohort of children 7-8 years of age in Peru. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional secondary analysis of data from the Young Lives longitudinal study of childhood poverty. The sample was a cohort of 1 737 children 7-8 years of age in 2009. Prevalence of overweight and obesity was assessed using body mass index-forage Z-scores. Logistic regression was used to determine associations with a number of individual, household, and community factors. RESULTS: Prevalences of overweight and obesity were 19.2% and 8.6%, respectively. A prevalence of 32.0% and 23.5% overweight and obesity was found among males and females, respectively. High socioeconomic status, living in Lima, having a mother who was overweight or obese, being male, and being an only child or having only one sibling were associated with being overweight and obese at this age. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a high prevalence of childhood and maternal overweight and obesity in Peru. In contrast to findings in many high-income countries, the findings in Peru indicate that children from wealthier households were more likely to be overweight or obese than those from poorer households. In addition, there is something particularly obesogenic about the Lima environment that merits further investigation, and several key issues to consider when targeting future interventions and research.

Falling sex ratios and emerging evidence of sex-selective abortion in Nepal: evidence from nationally representative survey data.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify trends in changing sex ratios of births before and after the legalisation of abortion in Nepal. While sex-selective abortion is common in some Asian countries, it is not clear whether the legal status of abortion is associated with the prevalence of sex-selection when sex-selection is illegal. In this context, Nepal provides an interesting case study. Abortion was legalised in 2002 and prior to that, there was no evidence of sex-selective abortion. Changes in the sex ratio at birth since legalisation would suggest an association with legalisation, even though sex-selection is expressly prohibited. DESIGN: Analysis of data from four Demographic and Health Surveys, conducted in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011. SETTING: Nepal. PARTICIPANTS: 31 842 women aged 15-49. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Conditional sex ratios (CSRs) were calculated, specifically the CSR for second-born children where the first-born was female. This CSR is where the evidence of sex-selective abortion will be most visible. CSRs were looked at over time to assess the impact of legalisation as well as for population sub-groups in order to identify characteristics of women using sex-selection. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2010, the CSR for second-order births where the first-born was a girl was found to be 742 girls per 1000 boys (95% CI 599 to 913). Prior to legalisation of abortion (1998-2000), the same CSR was 1021 (906-1150). After legalisation, it dropped most among educated and richer women, especially in urban areas. Just 325 girls were born for every 1000 boys among the richest urban women. CONCLUSIONS: The fall in CSRs witnessed post-legalisation indicates that sex-selective abortion is becoming more common. This change is very likely driven by both supply and demand factors. Falling fertility has intensified the need to bear a son sooner, while legal abortion services have reduced the costs and risks associated with obtaining an abortion.

The prevalence and determinants of sexual violence against young married women by husbands in rural Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Sexual violence within marriage is a public health and human rights issue; yet it remains a much neglected research area, especially in Nepal. This paper represents one of the first attempts to quantify the extent of sexual violence and its determinants among young married women in Nepal. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 1,296 married women aged 15-24 years in four major ethnic groups in rural Nepal. The survey data were used to estimate the prevalence and identify determinants of sexual violence. The relative importance of different correlates of sexual violence in the past 12 months at the individual, household and community levels were examined by using a multi-level multivariate statistical approach. RESULTS: Of the young women surveyed 46% had experienced sexual violence at some point and 31% had experienced sexual violence in the past 12 months. Women's autonomy was found to be particularly protective against sexual violence both at the individual and community level. Women's educational level was not found to be protective, while the educational level of the husband was found to be highly protective. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of sexual violence against young women by husbands found in this study is a matter for serious concern and underscores the need for a comprehensive response by policymakers.

Childbearing in adolescents aged 12-15 years in low resource countries: a neglected issue. New estimates from demographic and household surveys in 42 countries.

There is strong evidence that the health risks associated with adolescent pregnancy are concentrated among the youngest girls (e.g. those under 16 years). Fertility rates in this age group have not previously been comprehensively estimated and published. By drawing data from 42 large, nationally representative household surveys in low resource countries carried out since 2003 this article presents estimates of age-specific birth rates for girls aged 12-15, and the percentage of girls who give birth at age 15 or younger. From these we estimate that approximately 2.5 million births occur to girls aged under 16 in low resource countries each year. The highest rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa, where in Chad, Guinea, Mali, Mozambique, Niger and Sierra Leone more than 10% of girls become mothers before they are 16. Strategies to reduce these high levels are vital if we are to alleviate poor reproductive health.