Recent population trends in nonmetropolitan cities and villages: from the turnaround, through reversal, to the rebound.

"The purpose of this study is to track and contrast the patterns of local concentration and deconcentration in nonmetropolitan America between 1950 and 1996. We consider the growth of places by initial size as well as the growth of population living in the countryside or in unincorporated hamlets.... To determine how widespread and consistent the trends are, we compare patterns of growth by nearness to metropolitan areas, and by region of the country. We also examine differences among a subset of nonmetropolitan places distinguished by the primary socioeconomic character of their county. Using a detailed data file from the 1990 census, we are able to give some consideration to commuting."

Recent trends in nonmetropolitan migration: toward a new turnaround?

An attempt is made to review migration trends in the United States over the past 30 years. The emphasis is on changes in migration patterns between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. "Annual net migration estimates are examined, considering the changing metropolitan-nonmetropolitan differential, and differences across geographic and functional county types in nonmetropolitan areas. Some differences stand out across the 24-year period, but the most notable finding is the widespread nature of the turnaround, the reversal, and the current recovery. There are differences between the present and the 1970s, but a trend toward greater retention and/or acquisition of people in rural and small town areas is clear."

The changing concentration of the older nonmetropolitan population, 1960-90.

Changes in the absolute and relative size of the elderly population since 1960 are decomposed into the underlying demographic components for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas and for subregions of the United States. Specifically, we examine the components of net migration and natural increase for those aged 0-64 and those 65 or older. Generally, the natural increase component for those 65 and over has increased since 1960, whereas that for those under 65 has declined. Metropolitan areas have consistently lost, and nonmetropolitan areas gained elderly migrants. Trends in elderly population change are far from uniform across nonmetropolitan America. In general, the "aging" of the nonmetropolitan population was predominantly due to elderly migration during the 1970-80 decade, and to the loss of young people both before and afterward. Recent trends give little support for the view that the 1970s was the beginning of a new phase of deconcentrated settlement, even for elderly persons.

Residential preferences and population redistribution: 1972-1988.

In seeking to explain recent trends in population distribution, there has been increased interest in residential preferences. This study is a comparison of preferences based on 1972 and 1988 national surveys, years that bracket a period of considerable change in distribution patterns. Over time there has been a small shift in preference toward cities less than 500,000 in size, primarily by those already living there. Rural settings, especially near cities, continue to be very attractive. At both times studied, more than half of those preferring a smaller or more remote place would retain this preference even if it meant 10% less income. Nevertheless, the proportion preferring to live more than 30 miles from a large city was unchanged and approximately equal to the proportion already living there at both times, indicating that a discrepancy between where people live and where they want to live is not an important basis for the upturn in nonmetropolitan growth away from large cities in the 1970s or the downturn in the 1980s.

Monitoring the metropolitanization process.

Alternative approaches have led to different interpretations of the metropolitanization process in the United States. We identify and illustrate several methods and procedures for monitoring metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change using the 1950-1980 U.S. decennial censuses. Two basic approaches are compared: constant area approaches and component methods. In addition, we assess the effects of changing metropolitan definitions on metropolitan-nonmetropolitan growth. The results clearly reveal that the underlying mechanics of metropolitanization not only are complex but have changed substantially during the 1950-1980 period. We conclude with observations regarding the use of these procedures in future research.

The nonmetropolitan population turnaround.

From 1970-1980, US nonmetropolitan areas grew more rapidly than previously, achieving overall a faster growth rate than metropolitan areas, with more migrants going from metropolitan to nonmetropolian areas than in the opposite direction. This paper reviews the literature that has emerged in seeking to understand this new trend, which was contrary to expectations and became known as the nonmetropolitan turnaround. Work includes macroanalyses of changes in nonmetropolitan settlement structure, changes in the distribution of employment, migration streams and differentials, as well as research on residential preferences and migration decison making. This is a new trend in terms of population distribution processes, although evidence that it reflects a greater importance of noneconomic factors in migration is mixed. Nonmetropolitan growth slowed in the latter part of the 1970s and overall the turnaround reversed in the early 1980s, but a return to a generally concentrated settlement pattern appears unlikely. The amount of research accomplished over a short span of time as a consequence of the turnaround is noteworthy, and the findings have contributed to increased understanding of US population change.

The transition to nonmetropolitan population deconcentration.

A major aim of this study is to address our lack of understanding of rural-urban population change within nonmetropolitan counties of the United States. Specifically, we (a) examine trends between 1950 and 1975 in differential rural and urban growth rates within nonmetropolitan countries, and (b) examine the relationship between county location/function and within-county deconcentration. We show that the post-1970 period has not simply marked the net shift of population from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas, but has also ushered in a pattern of population deconcentration within most nonmetropolitan areas. It is also clear that traditional ecological base variables have been of diminishing utility in explaining deconcentration during the 1970s, suggesting that deconcentration is now evident in nonmetropolitan counties characterized by a broad spectrum of economic and sociodemographic traits.

Components of change in the residential concentration of the elderly population: 1950-1975.

Changes in the absolute and relative size of the elderly population within metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas are decomposed into the underlying demographic components for three time periods: 1950 to 1960, 1960 to 1970, 1970 to 1975. Specifically, we examine the components of net migration and natural increase of those aged 0 to 64 and those 64 or older. Using published migration estimates for the U.S., this study demonstrates that elderly migration has represented an increasingly important component of the absolute growth of the elderly population within nonmetropolitan areas and a corresponding decline in large SMSAs. Although "aging-in-place" was a dominant component of change in he elderly percentage irrespective of residence, we show that the demographic components of the young also exercise an important and often overlooked effect on the aging process. Most prominent was the slowing of relative aging in remote nonmetropolitan areas, due largely to the post-1970 changeover from net outmigration to net inmigration of those less than 65 years of age.

Residential mobility and living arrangements among the elderly: changing patterns in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas.

Using data from the 1960 and 1970 Public Use Samples and the 1975 Current Population Survey, this study examines the relationship between residential mobility and living arrangements among the elderly. Particular attention is given to temporal change in that relationship as well as to metropolitan-nonmetropolitan differentials. Persons with living arrangements indicative of greater dependency (i.e., persons who are other relatives of household heads) evidence greater mobility than those with greater independence (i.e., primary individuals and heads or spouses of heads). Results further suggest that outmigration from nonmetropolitan areas is particularly selective of those elderly in dependent type living arrangements. Over time, there is also a noticeable increase in migration of heads or spouses, especially from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan environments. It appears that temporal shifts in living arrangements partly account for changes in residential mobility within and between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas.

Residential preferences, community satisfaction, and the intention to move.

This paper explores the role of size of place residential preference in the evolution of the intention to move out of the present community using data from the March 1974 NORC Amalgam Survey. People who prefer to live in a community having different size or location characteristics than their present residence are five times more likely to intend to move than those who have attained their preferred type of residence. Within these two groups, however, the particular configuration of current and preferred residence has no significant effect on the likelihood of intending to move. This finding justifies the creation of a simple dichotomous variable, preference status, contrasting these two groups. Community satisfaction and preference status are highly interrelated and each has an independent effect on intentions to move. Moreover, the effect of preference status on mobility intentions is somewhat larger than that for community satisfaction, indicating that residential preference plays a significant role in the decision-making process regarding migration.

Population trends of nonmetropolitan cities and villages in subregions of the United States.

This is a comparison of the 1950-1970 trends in population size of U.S. nonmetropolitan cities and villages among 26 homogeneous subregions. There are wide variations in the proportion of the nonmetropolitan population in incorporated places, and, though this proportion generally increased over the 1950-1970 period, decentralizing tendencies also are evident. There was most often a decline in the differential between the growth rate of incorporated places and of open country over the two decades. The positive association between initial size of place and growth, present in half of the subregions in the 1950s and indicative of population centralization, was found only in the Corn Belt, Great Plains, and Rocky Mountain subregions in the 1960s. There were regionally distinctive differences in all variables considered; most notably, the percent of places growing ranged 50 percentage points over the 26 subregions. The extent of subregional variation revealed by this analysis indicates how differences in physiography, climate, history, and economy continue to be reflected in settlement trends which are obscured when larger regional groupings are used.

Annexation as a factor in the growth of U.S. cities, 1950--1960 and 1960--1970.

The incidence of annexation, the growth in the original area and in the area annexed, and the proportion of growth due to annexation between 1950 and 1970 are analyzed for U.S. cities grouped by size, metropolitan status, and region of the country. Over this period, annexation was a principal means of population growth for incorporated places outside the Northeast. Though often associated with metropolitan growth, annexation was even more important in the growth of nonmetropolitan cities. Overall growth differences by size of place, metropolitan status, and decade (1950--1960 or 1960--1970) could not be explained by the incidence and nature of annexation.

Residential preferences and population distribution.

Public opinion research has revealed decided preferences for living in rural areas and small towns, and proponents of population deconcentration have interpreted this as support for their policies. This study, based on a national sample, yielded similar results, but when we introduced the additional possibility of a preference for proximity to a larger city, then the rural areas preferred were found, for most respondents, to be those within the commuting range of a metropolitan central city. Although persons wishing to live near large cities were found to be looking for the same qualities of living sought by those who prefer a more remote location, these findings are not, in general, consistent with the argument that public preferences support strategies of population dispersal into nonmetropolitan areas. Instead they indicate that most of those who wish to live in a different location favor the peripheral metropolitan ring areas that have, in fact, been growing rapidly by in-migration.

Small town growth in the United States: An analysis by size class and by place.

Small town population change is an important factor in the urbanization process. We analyzed changes in incorporated places under 10,000 in the United States during the 1940-60 period, making a distinction between changes in population size classes and changes in places grouped by initial size. We made balance sheets for size classes under 1,000, 1,000-2,500, and 2,500-10,000 in order to divide the percent increase by size class into five additive components: (1)growth of places staying in the class, (2) net shifts of growing towns into and out of the class, (8) net shifts of declining towns into and out of the class, (4) addition of new places, and (5) disappearance of places during the time period. Separate tabulations were made by metropolitan location, region, and decade. p ]Places under 10,000 population the initial year grew during both census decades considered. Growth differentials paralleled those generally found for the total population, with the most rapid growth near large cities in the West and (except for non-metropolitan places) over the 1940-60 decade.We found results to be different for population changes of particular size classes. Except in some Urbanized Area locations, the two larger size classes increased in population over both decades. In contrast, the under-1,000 size class declined in almost every case. This decline was not due to decreasing population of places within the class or to the disappearance of places between censuses but rather to the growth of places into larger classes not compensated for by decline of other places into the class or new incorporations.