Kernel density estimation of allele frequency including undetected alleles.

Whereas undetected species contribute to estimation of species diversity, undetected alleles have not been used to estimated genetic diversity. Although random sampling guarantees unbiased estimation of allele frequency and genetic diversity measures, using undetected alleles may provide biased but more precise estimators useful for conservation. We newly devised kernel density estimation (KDE) for allele frequency including undetected alleles and tested it in estimation of allele frequency and nucleotide diversity using population generated by coalescent simulation as well as well as real population data. Contrary to expectations, nucleotide diversity estimated by KDE had worse bias and accuracy. Allele frequency estimated by KDE was also worse except when the sample size was small. These might be due to finity of population and/or the curse of dimensionality. In conclusion, KDE of allele frequency does not contribute to genetic diversity estimation.

Robustness of genetic diversity measures under spatial sampling and a new frequency-independent measure.

The genetic diversity of a taxon has often been estimated by genetic diversity measures. However, they assume random sampling of individuals which is often inapplicable. Except when the distribution of the taxon is limited, researchers conventionally choose several sampling locations from the known distribution and then collect individuals from each location. Spatial sampling is a formalized version of the conventional sampling, which objectively provides geographically even sampling locations to cover genetic variation in a taxon assuming isolation by distance. To evaluate the validity of the spatial sampling in estimating genetic diversity, we conducted coalescent simulation experiments. The sampling locations were selected by spatial sampling and one sample was collected from each location for the sake of theoretical simplicity. We also devised a new measure of genetic diversity, ς, which assumes spatial sampling and is independent of allele frequency. This new measure places an emphasis on rare and phylogenetically distant alleles which have relatively small effect on nucleotide diversity. Therefore, it can complementarily serve for conservation studies although it cannot be used to estimate population mutation rate. We compared ς with the other diversity measures in the experiments. Nucleotide diversity, expected heterozygosity and ς showed within 3% relative biases on average while Watterson's theta was 31% overestimation on average. Thus, genetic diversities other than Watterson's theta held good robustness under the spatial sampling.

Quiz-style online training tool helps to learn birdsong identification and support citizen science.

Citizen science is an important approach to monitoring for biodiversity conservation because it allows for data acquisition or analysis on a scale that is not possible for researchers alone. In citizen science projects, the use of online training is increasing to improve such skills. However, the effectiveness of quiz-style online training, assumed to be efficient to enhance participants' skills, has not been evaluated adequately on species identification for citizen science biodiversity monitoring projects. Memory mechanisms in adaptive learning were hypothesized to guide the development of quiz-based online training tools for learning birdsong identification and for improving interest in birds and natural environments. To examine the hypothesis, we developed a quiz-style online training tool called TORI-TORE. We experimentally applied TORI-TORE in Fukushima, Japan, and examined its effectiveness for bird identification training using test scores and questionnaires to determine participants' attitudes in a randomized control trial. We obtained the following key results: (1) TORI-TORE had positive effects on test scores and trainees' attitudes toward birds. (2) Adaptive training, in which questions focused preferentially on unmastered bird species based on the answer history of individual trainees inspired by adaptive learning, unexpectedly led to lower scores and satisfaction in TORI-TORE. (3) Focusing on species that are relatively easy to remember, short lag times between training and testing, and long question intervals positively affected scores. While there is room for improvement, we expect TORI-TORE to contribute to online capacity building and to increase interest in natural environments.

Camera-trapping estimates of the relative population density of Sympetrum dragonflies: application to multihabitat users in agricultural landscapes.

Although camera trapping has been effectively used for wildlife monitoring, its application to multihabitat insects (i.e., insects requiring terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems) is limited. Among such insects, perching dragonflies of the genus Sympetrum (darter dragonflies) are agroenvironmental indicators that substantially contribute to agricultural biodiversity. To examine whether custom-developed camera traps for perching dragonflies can be used to assess the relative population density of darter dragonflies, camera trapping, a line-transect survey of mature adult dragonflies, and a line-transect survey of exuviae were conducted for three years in rice paddy fields in Japan. The detection frequency of camera traps in autumn was significantly correlated with the density index of mature adults recorded during the transect surveys in the same season for both Sympetrum infuscatum and other darter species. In analyses of camera-detection frequency in autumn and exuviae in early summer, a significant correlation was observed between the camera-detection frequency of mature adults and the exuviae-density index in the following year for S. infuscatum; however, a similar correlation was not observed for other darter species. These results suggest that terrestrial camera trapping has the potential to be effective for monitoring the relative density of multihabitat users such as S. infuscatum, which shows frequent perching behavior and relatively short-distance dispersal.

Estimation of breeding population size using DNA-based pedigree reconstruction in brown bears.

Robust estimates of demographic parameters are critical for effective wildlife conservation and management but are difficult to obtain for elusive species. We estimated the breeding and adult population sizes, as well as the minimum population size, in a high-density brown bear population on the Shiretoko Peninsula, in Hokkaido, Japan, using DNA-based pedigree reconstruction. A total of 1288 individuals, collected in and around the Shiretoko Peninsula between 1998 and 2020, were genotyped at 21 microsatellite loci. Among them, 499 individuals were identified by intensive genetic sampling conducted in two consecutive years (2019 and 2020) mainly by noninvasive methods (e.g., hair and fecal DNA). Among them, both parents were assigned for 330 bears, and either maternity or paternity was assigned to 47 and 76 individuals, respectively. The subsequent pedigree reconstruction indicated a range of breeding and adult (≥4 years old) population sizes: 128-173 for female breeders and 66-91 male breeders, and 155-200 for female adults and 84-109 male adults. The minimum population size was estimated to be 449 (252 females and 197 males) in 2019. Long-term continuous genetic sampling prior to a short-term intensive survey would enable parentage to be identified in a population with a high probability, thus enabling reliable estimates of breeding population size for elusive species.

Positive and negative effects of land abandonment on butterfly communities revealed by a hierarchical sampling design across climatic regions.

Land abandonment may decrease biodiversity but also provides an opportunity for rewilding. It is therefore necessary to identify areas that may benefit from traditional land management practices and those that may benefit from a lack of human intervention. In this study, we conducted comparative field surveys of butterfly occurrence in abandoned and inhabited settlements in 18 regions of diverse climatic zones in Japan to test the hypotheses that species-specific responses to land abandonment correlate with climatic niches and habitat preferences. Hierarchical models that unified species occurrence and habitat preferences revealed that negative responses to land abandonment were associated with species that have cold climatic niches and use open habitats, suggesting that species negatively impacted by land abandonment will decline more due to future climate warming. Maps representing species gains and losses due to land abandonment, which were created from the model estimates, showed similar geographical patterns, but some areas exhibited high species losses relative to gains. Our hierarchical modelling approach was useful for scaling up local-scale effects of land abandonment to a macro-scale assessment, which is crucial to developing spatial conservation strategies in the era of depopulation.

Occurrence patterns of crop-foraging sika deer distribution in an agriculture-forest landscape revealed by nitrogen stable isotopes.

Conflicts arising from the consumption of anthropogenic foods by wildlife are increasing worldwide. Conventional tools for evaluating the spatial distribution pattern of large terrestrial mammals that consume anthropogenic foods have various limitations, despite their importance in management to mitigate conflicts. In this study, we examined the spatial distribution pattern of crop-foraging sika deer by performing nitrogen stable isotope analyses of bone collagen. We evaluated whether crop-foraging deer lived closer to agricultural crop fields during the winter and spring, when crop production decreases. We found that female deer in proximity to agricultural crop fields during the winter and spring were more likely to be crop-foraging individuals. Furthermore, the likelihood of crop consumption by females decreased by half as the distance to agricultural crop fields increased to 5-10 km. We did not detect a significant trend in the spatial distribution of crop-foraging male deer. The findings of spatial distribution patterns of crop-foraging female deer will be useful for the establishment of management areas, such as zonation, for efficient removal of them.

Estimations and projections of Avena fatua dynamics under multiple management scenarios in crop fields using simplified longitudinal monitoring.

Integrated weed management (IWM) is currently the most appropriate and effective method of agricultural weed control. To determine the most effective strategy, it is necessary to compare the effects of different control options and their rotation. Avena fatua (common wild oat) is one of the most common and economically threatening grass weed species of cereal crops worldwide. To examine the effects of non-chemical weed management options (farmland use, delayed sowing, and summer irrigation) on control of A. fatua, we recorded coverage levels and field conditions in 41 sites during the spring growing season of winter wheat for about 10 years. A transition matrix model was then constructed to project coverage levels of A. fatua under each management option using ordinal logistic regression. The results showed that farmland use had a remarkable effect on coverage; notably, planting of paddy rice and vegetables, which respectively eliminated the effect of coverage in the previous year and facilitated rapid convergence of coverage to 0%. Thus, although 90% of fields under continuous wheat cultivation were found to be at risk of A. fatua colonization, the risk was reduced to almost 0% with rotation of effective farmland use. As summer irrigation was also effective, more than 50% of wheat fields with the option continuously converged to no risk for A. fatua colonization. When the different management cycles were repeated, the effects were observed within 3 years, with a steady state reached in less than 10 years. Overall, these results suggest that simplified monitoring data could help decision-making on IWM, thereby helping to improve the efficiency of agricultural production.

Spatial optimization of invasive species control informed by management practices.

Optimization of spatial resource allocation is crucial for the successful control of invasive species under a limited budget but requires labor-intensive surveys to estimate population parameters. In this study, we devised a novel framework for the spatially explicit optimization of capture effort allocation using state-space population models from past capture records. We applied it to a control program for invasive snapping turtles to determine effort allocation strategies that minimize the population density over the whole area. We found that spatially heterogeneous density dependence and capture pressure limit the abundance of snapping turtles. Optimal effort allocation effectively improved the control effect, but the degree of improvement varied substantially depending on the total effort. The degree of improvement by the spatial optimization of allocation effort was only 3.21% when the total effort was maintained at the 2016 level. However, when the total effort was increased by two, four, and eight times, spatial optimization resulted in improvements of 4.65%, 8.33%, and 20.35%, respectively. To achieve the management goal for snapping turtles in our study area, increasing the current total effort by more than four times was necessary, in addition to optimizing the spatial effort. The snapping turtle population is expected to reach the target density one year after the optimal management strategy is implemented, and this rapid response can be explained by high population growth rate coupled with density-dependent feedback regulation. Our results demonstrated that combining a state-space model with optimization makes it possible to adaptively improve the management of invasive species and decision-making. The method used in this study, based on removal records from an invasive management program, can be easily applied to monitoring data for wildlife and pest control management using traps in a variety of ecosystems.

Development of a camera trap for perching dragonflies: a new tool for freshwater environmental assessment.

Although dragonflies are excellent environmental indicators for monitoring terrestrial water ecosystems, automatic monitoring techniques using digital tools are limited. We designed a novel camera trapping system with an original dragonfly detector based on the hypothesis that perching dragonflies can be automatically detected using inexpensive and energy-saving photosensors built in a perch-like structure. A trial version of the camera trap was developed and evaluated in a case study targeting red dragonflies (Sympetrum spp.) in Japan. During an approximately 2-month period, the detector successfully detected Sympetrum dragonflies while using extremely low power consumption (less than 5 mW). Furthermore, a short-term field experiment using time-lapse cameras for validation at three locations indicated that the detection accuracy was sufficient for practical applications. The frequency of false positive detection ranged from 17 to 51 over an approximately 2-day period. The detection sensitivities were 0.67 and 1.0 at two locations, where a time-lapse camera confirmed that Sympetrum dragonflies perched on the trap more than once. However, the correspondence between the detection frequency by the camera trap and the abundance of Sympetrum dragonflies determined by field observations conducted in parallel was low when the dragonfly density was relatively high. Despite the potential for improvements in our camera trap and its application to the quantitative monitoring of dragonflies, the low cost and low power consumption of the detector make it a promising tool.

Long-lasting effects of historical land use on the current distribution of mammals revealed by ecological and archaeological patterns.

Past land-use activity has massively altered the environment and vegetation over centuries, resulting in range contractions and expansions of species. When habitat recovery and species recolonization require a long time, the fingerprint of past land use can remain on the current distribution of species. To evaluate millennial-scale effects of land use in Japan, we explained the current ranges of 29 mammalian genera based on three types of archaeological land-use patterns (settlement, ironwork and kiln) considering potential confounding factors. The results indicate that archaeological human activity associated with ironwork and pottery production had severe negative effects on many genera of small and medium-sized mammals. Despite positive effects on some genera, the magnitudes were less than those of the negative effects. The relative importance of archaeological factors on small mammals was greater than those for medium- to-large mammals. The persistent imprint of past land-use patterns was non-negligible, explaining current mammalian diversity. Spatial ecological and archaeological information can provide meaningful insights into long-term socio-ecological processes, which are crucial for the development of sustainable societies in the Anthropocene.

Ecological dissimilarity among land-use/land-cover types improves a heterogeneity index for predicting biodiversity in agricultural landscapes.

Land-use/land-cover heterogeneity is among the most important factors influencing biodiversity in agricultural landscapes and is the key to the conservation of multi-habitat dwellers that use both terrestrial and aquatic habitats. Heterogeneity indices based on land-use/land-cover maps typically do not integrate ecological dissimilarity between land-use/land-cover types. Here, we applied the concept of functional diversity to an existing land-use/land-cover diversity index (Satoyama index) to incorporate ecological dissimilarity and proposed a new index called the dissimilarity-based Satoyama index (DSI). Using Japan as a case study, we calculated the DSI for three land-use/land-cover maps with different spatial resolutions and derived similarity information from normalized difference vegetation index values. The DSI showed better performance in the prediction of Japanese damselfly species richness than that of the existing index, and a higher correlation between the index and species richness was obtained for higher resolution maps. Thus, our approach to improve the land-use/land-cover diversity index holds promise for future development and can be effective for conservation and monitoring efforts.

Context Dependent Effect of Landscape on the Occurrence of an Apex Predator across Different Climate Regions.

In studies of habitat suitability at landscape scales, transferability of species-landscape associations among sites are likely to be critical because it is often impractical to collect datasets across various regions. However, limiting factors, such as prey availability, are not likely to be constant across scales because of the differences in species pools. This is particularly true for top predators that are often the target for conservation concern. Here we focus on gray-faced buzzards, apex predators of farmland-dominated landscapes in East Asia. We investigated context dependency of "buzzard-landscape relationship", using nest location datasets from five sites, each differing in landscape composition. Based on the similarities of prey items and landscape compositions across the sites, we determined several alternative ways of grouping the sites, and then examined whether buzzard-landscape relationship change among groups, which was conducted separately for each way of grouping. As a result, the model of study-sites grouping based on similarities in prey items showed the smallest ΔAICc. Because the terms of interaction between group IDs and areas of broad-leaved forests and grasslands were selected, buzzard-landscape relationship showed a context dependency, i.e., these two landscape elements strengthen the relationship in southern region. The difference in prey fauna, which is associated with the difference in climate, might generate regional differences in the buzzard-landscape associations.

Pollinators and Other Flying Insects inside and outside the Fukushima Evacuation Zone.

Following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants in 2011, a large evacuation zone was imposed in an area where residents had historically managed forests and farmlands. Thus, the human activities that had maintained biodiversity and ecosystem services in the zone were discontinued. Such change can affect insects, a biodiversity component that is relatively tolerant to radiation exposure. In this study, we investigated flying insects, including pollinators, important ecosystem providers inside and outside the zone, using Malaise traps. The results showed that the number of individuals of Xylocopa appendiculata, the largest Apidae species in the region, was significantly lower inside the evacuation zone than outside it, whereas those of other insects were not lower significantly. Although we suggest that flying insects and their ecosystem services (i.e., benefits from them such as pollination) 3 years after the disaster were not critically impacted, it is important to monitor the long-term effects of the evacuation in the future.

Mixed Mating System Are Regulated by Fecundity in Shorea curtisii (Dipterocarpaceae) as Revealed by Comparison under Different Pollen Limited Conditions.

The maintenance of mixed mating was studied in Shorea curtisii, a dominant and widely distributed dipterocarp species in Southeast Asia. Paternity and hierarchical Bayesian analyses were used to estimate the parameters of pollen dispersal kernel, male fecundity and self-pollen affinity. We hypothesized that partial self incompatibility and/or inbreeding depression reduce the number of selfed seeds if the mother trees receive sufficient pollen, whereas reproductive assurance increases the numbers of selfed seeds under low amounts of pollen. Comparison of estimated parameters of self-pollen affinity between high density undisturbed and low density selectively logged forests indicated that self-pollen was selectively excluded from mating in the former, probably due to partial self incompatibility or inbreeding depression until seed maturation. By estimating the self-pollen affinity of each mother tree in both forests, mother trees with higher amount of self-pollen indicated significance of self-pollen affinity with negative estimated value. The exclusion of self-fertilization and/or inbreeding depression during seed maturation occurred in the mother trees with large female fecundity, whereas reproductive assurance increased self-fertilization in the mother trees with lower female fecundity.

Differential population responses of native and alien rodents to an invasive predator, habitat alteration and plant masting.

Invasive species and anthropogenic habitat alteration are major drivers of biodiversity loss. When multiple invasive species occupy different trophic levels, removing an invasive predator might cause unexpected outcomes owing to complex interactions among native and non-native prey. Moreover, external factors such as habitat alteration and resource availability can affect such dynamics. We hypothesized that native and non-native prey respond differently to an invasive predator, habitat alteration and bottom-up effects. To test the hypothesis, we used Bayesian state-space modelling to analyse 8-year data on the spatio-temporal patterns of two endemic rat species and the non-native black rat in response to the continual removal of the invasive small Indian mongoose on Amami Island, Japan. Despite low reproductive potentials, the endemic rats recovered better after mongoose removal than did the black rat. The endemic species appeared to be vulnerable to predation by mongooses, whose eradication increased the abundances of the endemic rats, but not of the black rat. Habitat alteration increased the black rat's carrying capacity, but decreased those of the endemic species. We propose that spatio-temporal monitoring data from eradication programmes will clarify the underlying ecological impacts of land-use change and invasive species, and will be useful for future habitat management.

Anion conductive block poly(arylene ether)s: synthesis, properties, and application in alkaline fuel cells.

Anion conductive aromatic multiblock copolymers, poly(arylene ether)s containing quaternized ammonio-substituted fluorene groups, were synthesized via block copolycondensation of fluorene-containing (later hydrophilic) oligomers and linear hydrophobic oligomers, chloromethylation, quaternization, and ion-exchange reactions. The ammonio groups were selectively introduced onto the fluorene-containing units. The quaternized multiblock copolymers (QPEs) produced ductile, transparent membranes. A well-controlled multiblock structure was responsible for the developed hydrophobic/hydrophilic phase separation and interconnected ion transporting pathway, as confirmed by scanning transmission electron microscopic (STEM) observation. The ionomer membranes showed considerably higher hydroxide ion conductivities, up to 144 mS/cm at 80 °C, than those of existing anion conductive ionomer membranes. The durabilities of the QPE membranes were evaluated under severe, accelerated-aging conditions, and minor degradation was recognized by (1)H NMR spectra. The QPE membrane retained high conductivity in hot water at 80 °C for 5000 h. A noble metal-free direct hydrazine fuel cell was operated with the QPE membrane at 80 °C. The maximum power density, 297 mW/cm(2), was achieved at a current density of 826 mA/cm(2).