Autoregressive spatial modeling of possible cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in the capital of Northeastern Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are a growing global health problem. This study analyzed the spatial distribution of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika cases in São Luís, Maranhão, from 2015 to 2016 and investigated the association between socio-environmental and economic factors and hotspots for mosquito proliferation. METHODS: This was a socio-ecological study using data from the National Information System of Notifiable Diseases. The spatial units of analysis were census tracts. The incidence rates of the combined cases of the three diseases were calculated and smoothed using empirical local Bayes estimates. The spatial autocorrelation of the smoothed incidence rate was measured using Local Moran's I and Global Moran's I. Multiple linear regression and spatial autoregressive models were fitted using the log of the smoothed disease incidence rate as the dependent variable and socio-environmental factors, demographics, and mosquito hotspots as independent variables. RESULTS: The findings showed a significant spatial autocorrelation of the smoothed incidence rate. The model that best fit the data was the spatial lag model, revealing a positive association between disease incidence and the proportion of households with surrounding garbage accumulation. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika cases showed a significant spatial pattern, in which the high-risk areas for the three diseases were explained by the variable "garbage accumulated in the surrounding environment," demonstrating the need for an intersectoral approach for vector control and prevention that goes beyond health actions.

Autoregressive spatial modeling of possible cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in the capital of Northeastern Brazil

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are a growing global health problem. This study analyzed the spatial distribution of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika cases in São Luís, Maranhão, from 2015 to 2016 and investigated the association between socio-environmental and economic factors and hotspots for mosquito proliferation. METHODS: This was a socio-ecological study using data from the National Information System of Notifiable Diseases. The spatial units of analysis were census tracts. The incidence rates of the combined cases of the three diseases were calculated and smoothed using empirical local Bayes estimates. The spatial autocorrelation of the smoothed incidence rate was measured using Local Moran's I and Global Moran's I. Multiple linear regression and spatial autoregressive models were fitted using the log of the smoothed disease incidence rate as the dependent variable and socio-environmental factors, demographics, and mosquito hotspots as independent variables. RESULTS: The findings showed a significant spatial autocorrelation of the smoothed incidence rate. The model that best fit the data was the spatial lag model, revealing a positive association between disease incidence and the proportion of households with surrounding garbage accumulation. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika cases showed a significant spatial pattern, in which the high-risk areas for the three diseases were explained by the variable "garbage accumulated in the surrounding environment," demonstrating the need for an intersectoral approach for vector control and prevention that goes beyond health actions.

Effects of habitat suitability for vectors, environmental factors and host characteristics on the spatial distribution of the diversity and prevalence of haemosporidians in waterbirds from three Brazilian wetlands.

BACKGROUND: Wetlands are ecosystems in which vectors of avian haemosporidians live and reproduce and where waterbirds join to breed in colonies. Brazil has wetlands at different latitudes, which enables testing the influence of the ecological factors on the prevalence and diversity of haemosporidians. We identified avian haemosporidians in waterbird species in three wetlands and investigated the effects of vector habitat suitability, landscape and host characteristics on the diversity and prevalence of these parasites. METHODS: We created a map with the probability of occurrence of avian haemosporidian vectors using maximum-entropy modelling based on references addressing species known to be vectors of haemosporidians in birds in Brazil. We determined the prevalence and diversity index of haemosporidians in the great egret (Ardea alba) (n = 129) and roseate spoonbill (Platalea ajaja) (n = 180) and compared the findings to data for the wood stork (Mycteria americana) (n = 199). RESULTS: We report the first record of Plasmodium in the family Threskiornithidae: four lineages in the roseate spoonbill, which also presented one lineage of Haemoproteus. In the family Ardeidae, we found three Plasmodium lineages in the great egret. The similar habitat suitability for vectors found in three wetlands explains the pattern of haemosporidian diversity determined for great egret and wood stork populations. Comparisons of haemosporidian diversity within each waterbird species and between regions showed a higher level in the central-western roseate spoonbill population than in the northern population (P = 0.021). Removing the host effect, we discussed the results obtained in terms of characteristics of the Pantanal region. Comparisons of Plasmodium spp. prevalence among waterbird species within the same wetland showed higher level in roseate spoonbill (74%) than those found in the great egret (21%) and wood stork (11%). Excluding the environmental effect, we interpreted result focusing host characteristics that favour infection: time required for nestlings to be covered by feathers and migratory behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: The map of habitat suitability showed that wetlands located in a 30° latitudinal range offer similar conditions for avian vectors species and diversity of haemosporidians. The lineages described in waterbirds were previously identified in birds of prey as Plasmodium paranucleophilum.

Land Use and Environmental Zoning of Mixed Ombrophilous Forests for Sustainable Use (Irati National Forest, Brazil Southern Region)

ABSTRACT An environmental zoning proposal due to the demand to develop strategies to ensure biodiversity scenarios for the remaining mixed ombrophilous forests was carried out for the Irati National Forest, a legally protected area for sustainable use located in southern Brazil. To identify land use and cover, Ikonos PSM images dated from December 2004, based on the interpretation of visual character and vectorization of orbital data were used. Qualitative and quantitative classifications identified six types of land and cover use: native forest, forestry, capoeira grass, wetland, araucaria plantation, and anthropic. The native forest relative to the mixed ombrophilous forest was the prevailing type of land cover. The environmental zoning proposal defined seven zones of use, some that involved several potentially harmful activities to the biodiversity of the Irati National Forest. The environmental zone proposal, based on ecosystem conservation, outlined specific factors that enhanced ecosystem and community viability, supporting the design and evaluation of the management plan of the Irati National Forest.