Coastal warming under climate change: Global, faster and heterogeneous.

The assessment of expected changes in coastal sea surface temperature (SST) on a global scale is becoming increasingly important due to the growing pressure on coastal ecosystems caused by climate change. To achieve this objective, 17 Global Climate Models from CMIP6 were used, with data from historical and hist-1950 experiments spanning 1982-2050. This analysis highlights significant warming of coastal areas worldwide, with higher and more variable rates of warming than observed in previous decades. All basins are projected to experience an increase in coastal SST near 1 °C by mid-century, with some regions exhibiting nearshore SST anomalies exceeding 2 °C for the period 2031-2050 relative to 1995-2014. Regarding the Eastern Upwelling Boundary Systems, only the Canary upwelling system and the southern part of the Humboldt upwelling system manage to show lower-than-average SST warming rates, maintaining, to a certain extent, their ability to buffer global warming.

Does global warming threaten small-scale bivalve fisheries in NW Spain?

Shellfisheries of the intertidal and shallow subtidal infaunal bivalves Ruditapes decussatus, Ruditapes philippinarum, Venerupis corrugata and Cerastoderma edule are of great socio-economic importance (in terms of landings) in Europe, specifically in the Galician Rías Baixas (NW Spain). However, ocean warming may threaten these fisheries by modifying the geographic distribution of the species and thus affecting productive areas. The present study analysed the impact of rising ocean temperature on the geographical distribution of the thermal comfort areas of these bivalves throughout the 21st century. The Delft3D model was used to downscale climate data from CORDEX and CMIP5 and was run for July and August in three future periods (2025-2049, 2050-2074 and 2075-2099) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The areas with optimal temperature conditions for shellfish harvesting located in the middle and outer parts of the rias may increase in the near future for R. decussatus, V. corrugata and C. edule and decrease in the far future for R. philippinarum. Moreover, shellfish beds located in the shallower areas of the inner parts of the Rías Baixas could be affected by increased water temperature, reducing the productive areas of the four species by the end of the century. The projected changes in thermal condition will probably lead to changes in shellfish harvesting modality (on foot or aboard vessels) with further socio-economic consequences.

Historical and future naturalization of Magallana gigas in the Galician coast in a context of climate change.

Magallana gigas is a naturalized species on the north coast of Galicia (Rías Altas, Northwest Iberian Peninsula), where it was unintentionally introduced. In recent decades, a greater abundance of M. gigas has been observed on the Galician coast, expanding towards the south, reaching the Artabro Gulf (Rías Centrales, NW Galician coast), probably due to ocean warming. Although this species has been cultivated in the Rías Baixas since the early 1990s and spawning has been reported, recruitment was never observed, which is likely due to the cold water upwelled during the spawning months. The future rise in seawater temperature may favor the naturalization of the non-indigenous species M. gigas southwards, in the Rías Baixas. Thermally, the Ría de Arousa seems to be the most favorable estuary for the future settlement of M. gigas, which may occur in the next decades. The extent of thermally favorable zones within estuaries is projected to increase rapidly by mid-century, and reaching 100 % of the estuarine area by the end of the century. As has already happened in other areas of the world, the expansion and naturalization of the Pacific oyster on the Galician coast will likely affect the native communities and economic activities, making it necessary to implement monitoring and management strategies to mitigate its effect.

Modeling salinity drop in estuarine areas under extreme precipitation events within a context of climate change: Effect on bivalve mortality in Galician Rías Baixas.

The mortality of infaunal bivalves (Venerupis corrugata, Cerastoderma edule, Ruditapes decussatus and Ruditapes philippinarum) due to a drop in salinity caused by extreme precipitation events in estuarine areas has been analyzed within a context of climate change. The Rías Baixas (NW Iberian Peninsula) were selected as a representative area of the estuarine environments where bivalve gathering is performed. Bivalve mortality under extreme precipitation events was analyzed both for historical (1990-2019) and future (2070-2099) periods. Precipitation data were retrieved from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and were converted into river discharges using the HEC-HMS hydrological model. The calculated river discharges were introduced into the Delft3D hydrodynamic model and simulations were performed in order to calculate transport conditions in the Rías Baixas. Salinity data were analyzed to estimate the mortality of the species due to salinity drops. In general, future conditions of moderate and severe mortality may be worse than historically observed, being more intense and covering larger areas. This is mainly observed under neap tides due to less dilution of freshwater plumes when compared with spring tides. Although all the Rías Baixas may be potentially affected, the impact will differ for each ria, being Arousa, where the highest discharges occur, the most affected. The differences among rias, especially those with a similar discharge pattern as Pontevedra and Vigo, suggest that bathymetric features also play a key role in the extent of the area affected by mortality.

Influence of the mightiest rivers worldwide on coastal sea surface temperature warming.

Ocean warming as a consequence of climate change occurred during the last decades is not homogeneous. This is especially patent for coastal areas, where the warming is influenced by local processes that occur at different time and spatial scales. In this sense, plumes formed by rivers discharge can play a key role in sea surface temperature (SST) warming. SST trends for the coastal points affected by the plumes of the 19 world's mightiest rivers (south 60°N) and their oceanic counterparts were analyzed by means of NOAA's AVHRR OISST data over the period 1982-2019. Coastal areas affected by river plumes showed an annual less intense warming trend than observed at the adjacent ocean in all cases. In average, warming trend was 0.088 °C dec-1 lower for coastal areas, ranging from 0.027 °C dec-1 for Mekong and Irrawaddy/Salween River plume systems to 0.208 °C dec-1 and 0.278 °C dec-1 for Mississippi and Paraná River plumes. The differences in coastal-ocean warming obtained for rivers debouching into inland seas (Danube and Volga Rivers) are similar to the ones observed for the rest of the rivers, even if inland seas are prone to higher warming rates than open seas. As the main conclusion, river plumes seem to have the ability to modulate SST warming near coast within the current context of global warming.

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of habitat-forming macroalgae in the Rías Baixas.

In the current scenario of climate change characterized by a generalized warming, many species are facing local extinctions in areas with conditions near their thermal tolerance threshold. At present, the southern limit of the geographical distribution of several habitat-forming algae of cold-temperate affinities is located in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula, and the Rías Baixas may be acting as contemporary refugia at the range edge. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future changes induced by ocean warming in this area that may induce changes in macroalgae populations. The Delft3D-Flow model forced with climatic data was used to calculate July-August sea surface temperature (SST) for the present (1999-2018) and for the far future (2080-2099). Mean daily SST was used to develop and calibrate a mechanistic geographical distribution model based on the thermal survival threshold of two intertidal habitat-forming macroalgae, namely Himanthalia elongata (L.) S.F.Gray and Bifurcaria bifurcata R. Ross. Results show that H. elongata will become extinct in the Rías Baixas by the end of the century, while B. bifurcata will persist and may occupy potential free space left by the decline in H. elongata.

How can ocean warming at the NW Iberian Peninsula affect mussel aquaculture?

Understanding and forecasting future consequences of climate change in mussel aquaculture industry require the assessment of changes in physical parameters which may affect mussel growth. The FLOW module of Delft3D model forced with climatic data was validated and calibrated for the Rías Baixas (NW Iberian Peninsula), one of the areas with the highest mussel production in the world. This model was used to perform historical (1999-2018) and future (2080-2099) projections. Temperature and stratification water conditions were compared in order to determine at what extent climate change can affect mussel production. Thermal stress will increase in a non-homogeneous throughout the water column and the comfort level of mussels will be reduced by more than 60% in the upper layers and more than 30% in deep layers in most of the mussel raft polygons. Water column stratification will increase ~ 5-10 cycles h-1 in most of the polygons reducing the vertical exchange of nutrients and oxygen. Hereby changes in water temperature and stratification at the end of the century will not be favorable for mussel growth.

Influence of main forcing affecting the Tagus turbid plume under high river discharges using MODIS imagery.

The role of river discharge, wind and tide on the extension and variability of the Tagus River plume was analyzed from 2003 to 2015. This study was performed combining daily images obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor located onboard the Aqua and Terra satellites. Composites were generated by averaging pixels with the same forcing conditions. River discharge shows a strong relation with the extension of the Tagus plume. The plume grows with the increasing river discharge and express a two day lag caused by the long residence time of water within the estuary. The Tagus turbid plume was found to be smaller under northerly and easterly winds, than under southerly and westerly winds. It is suggested that upwelling favoring winds provoke the offshore movement of the plume material with a rapidly decrease in turbidity values whereas downwelling favoring winds retain plume material in the north coast close to the Tagus mouth. Eastern cross-shore (oceanward) winds spread the plume seaward and to the north following the coast geometry, whereas western cross-shore (landward) winds keep the plume material in both alongshore directions occupying a large part of the area enclosed by the bay. Low tides produce larger and more turbid plumes than high tides. In terms of fortnightly periodicity, the maximum plume extension corresponding to the highest turbidity is observed during and after spring tides. Minimum plume extension associated with the lowest turbidity occurs during and after neap tides.

Influence of Coastal Upwelling on SST Trends along the South Coast of Java.

The south coast of Java has warmed at a much lower rate than adjacent ocean locations over the last three decades (1982-2015). This behavior can be observed during the upwelling season (July-October) and it is especially patent in August and September when upwelling attains the highest values. Although different warming rates (ocean-coast) had been previously observed in other areas around the world, this behavior was always linked to situations where upwelling increased or remained unchanged. South Java warming is observed at ocean locations and cooling near shore but under a scenario of decreasing upwelling (~30% in some cases). The origin of coastal cooling is due to changes in the vertical structure of the water column. A vein of subsurface water, which has cooled at a rate higher than 0.3°C per decade, is observed to enter from the northwestern part of the study area following the South Java Current. This water only manifests at surface near coast, where it is pumped up by coastal upwelling.

How will Somali coastal upwelling evolve under future warming scenarios?

Somali upwelling system, the fifth in the world, presents some unique features compared with the other major upwelling systems: 1) it is a Western Boundary Upwelling System located near the Equator and 2) upwelling affects the moisture responsible for monsoon rainfall. The intensity of Somali coastal upwelling during summer was projected for the twenty first century by means of an ensemble of Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models within the framework of CMIP5 and CORDEX projects, respectively. Regardless global or regional circulation models and the chosen greenhouse warming scenario, the strengthening of Somali coastal upwelling, which increases with latitude, is even higher than observed for the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System. In addition, coastal upwelling strengthening is mainly due to Ekman transport since Ekman pumping shows no clear trend for most of the latitudes. Projected land-sea air temperature and pressure show a clear intensification of land-sea thermal and pressure gradient as a consequence of the global warming, which is likely to affect the strengthening of Somali upwelling verifying the hypothesis of Bakun. As a consequence, projected sea surface temperature warming is less intense nearshore than at oceanic locations, especially at latitudes where upwelling strengthening is more intense.

Has upwelling strengthened along worldwide coasts over 1982-2010?

Changes in coastal upwelling strength have been widely studied since 1990 when Bakun proposed that global warming can induce the intensification of upwelling in coastal areas. Whether present wind trends support this hypothesis remains controversial, as results of previous studies seem to depend on the study area, the length of the time series, the season, and even the database used. In this study, temporal and spatial trends in the coastal upwelling regime worldwide were investigated during upwelling seasons from 1982 to 2010 using a single wind database (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) with high spatial resolution (0.3°). Of the major upwelling systems, increasing trends were only observed in the coastal areas of Benguela, Peru, Canary, and northern California. A tendency for an increase in upwelling-favourable winds was also identified along several less studied regions, such as the western Australian and southern Caribbean coasts.

Spatio-temporal upwelling trends along the Canary Upwelling System (1967-2006).

Spatio-temporal trends in upwelling patterns were studied along the Canary Upwelling System for the period 1967-2006. The northwestern coast of African from lat 20 degrees N to 32 degrees N is observed to be under a permanent upwelling regime characterized by coastal sea surface temperatures (SST) colder than the oceanic ones at the same latitude. The temperature difference is termed the temperature upwelling index (UI(SST)). This regime is consistent with the wind-derived Ekman transport (UI(W)), which is observed near the coast and is directed offshore. This index shows the existence of upwelling-favorable conditions all year but has an annual cycle characterized by more upwelling-favorable conditions from April to September, with a maximum in July, and less upwelling-favorable conditions from October to March, with a minimum in December to January. Although both indices can be used to characterize the phenomenon, only UI(W) values were used to quantify upwelling change during the four decades under review because this index is less sensitive to external factors compared to UI(SST). A strong decrease in upwelling intensity has been observed in all seasons. In particular, the summer (winter) decrease is on the order of 45% (20%) of the mean amplitude of the upwelling cycle.

Kinematic description of wave propagation through a chemical diode.

The geometry of an active medium can cause wave blocking and induce unidirectional propagation. This well established phenomenon was studied in a previous paper within the framework of the photosensitive Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction and the associated Oregonator model. In the present paper, as an extension of that study, the main factors that influence this phenomenon are interpreted in terms of a kinematic model.

Transient oceanic and tidal contributions to water exchange and residence times in a coastal upwelling system in the NE Atlantic: the Pontevedra Ria, Galicia.

An analysis of the intra-annual variability of hydrographic residence times, tau, is presented for the Pontevedra Ria--a large coastal system in NW Spain with a deep, unobstructed connection with the Atlantic Ocean. Ria-offshore water exchange and tau were quantified with an iterative approach to the fraction of freshwater method using 23 quasi-steady state water-salt budgets. Excluding prolonged flushing due to downwelling events at the end of the upwelling season, mean was 6 +/- 2 day in the central ria and 2 +/- 1 day in the internal ria. The tidal contribution, equal to 10-25% of total water renewal, was quantified for the first time for a Galician ria with the hydrodynamic model estuarine contaminant simulator (ECoS). The relationship between tau and residual freshwater input, Qz, was atypical, since Qz played a minor role in water exchange in comparison to periodic upwelling of East North Atlantic Central Water (ENACW) from the continental shelf mainly during spring and summer. During positive upwelling stress, the intrusion of ENACW into the ria produced enhanced flushing and tau < 4 day in the central ria and < 2 days in the internal ria. Under downwelling favourable conditions, water was retained and tau prolonged to >8 and >5 days, respectively. A quantitative parameterisation of tau with upwelling and Qz was weakly significant, due to the short-term variability in ria salinity. This paper elucidates problems associated with the use of water budgets to transient coastal systems such as the Pontevedra Ria.

Brownian motion of spiral waves driven by spatiotemporal structured noise

Spiral chemical waves subjected to a spatiotemporal random excitability are experimentally and numerically investigated in relation to the light-sensitive Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction. Brownian motion is identified and characterized by an effective diffusion coefficient which shows a rather complex dependence on the time and length scales of the noise relative to those of the spiral. A kinematically based model is proposed whose results are in good qualitative agreement with experiments and numerics.

Using parasites as biological tags of fish populations: a dynamical model.

A simple model of macro-parasitic infections has been used to evaluate the potential use of parasites as biological tags of fish populations. In the model, the parasite-host interaction is regulated by a birth-death process, and parasites can only be acquired by the non-specific migratory host population in a particular area of the space domain. In this case, we show that parasites can be successfully used for stocks identification and to describe the migratory routes taken by some marine fish species.

Comparison between the role of discontinuities in cardiac conduction and in a one-dimensional hardware model.

In real electrophysiological experiments, irregularities in the extracellular excitation spread are believed to depend on cardiac tissue microstructure. An electronic hardware model was developed to analyze this dependence by placing some inhomogeneities (slow propagation areas) in the medium. The position of such inhomogeneities is correlated with abnormal delays and irregularities measured in signal propagation.