ABSTRACT
The future as well as the past development of cancer incidents in Germany is of continuous importance for health policy. Cancer incidence data observed over more than 20 years are analysed by log-linear models with polynomial trend components. The estimated trend models are used for a trend extrapolation until the year 2020. Since cancer registration in Germany is not complete yet and does not cover the whole area of the country national incidences are estimated by the data of the existing complete regional cancer registries. In this way it can be assessed that the number of new cancer diseases increased from 270,000 cases in 1980 to 420,000 cases in 2002. Extrapolating the trends and taking into account the demographic prognosis of the German Federal Statistical Office 570,000 (version 1) or 590,000 (version 9) annual cancer cases are predicted for the year 2020. From 1980 to 2002 a decrease of cancer mortality was observed. If this trend continues until 2020, the number of deaths caused by cancer would decrease from 209,000 in 2002 to 153,000 (or 158,000) in 2020, although the number of cancer cases are predicted to increase. Assuming constant mortality rates the number of deaths caused by cancer would be much higher.
Subject(s)
Neoplasms/epidemiology , Registries , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Breast Neoplasms/epidemiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Forecasting , Germany/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Intestinal Neoplasms/epidemiology , Linear Models , Lung Neoplasms/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Neoplasms/mortality , Prostatic Neoplasms/epidemiology , Sex Factors , Stomach Neoplasms/epidemiologyABSTRACT
For 20 years the Federal Cancer Reporting Unit has been processing and analyzing the comprehensive data of the population-based cancer registries in the Federal Republic of Germany. For this purpose the registries transfer their epidemiological records that have been made anonymous to the Federal Cancer Reporting Unit in the Robert Koch Institute once a year. An essential task of the Federal Cancer Reporting Unit is to check the data coherence and especially the completeness of cancer registration. The completeness of registration is estimated by site- and register-specific log-linear models. Based on data from sufficiently complete registries, national incidence rates and their time trends are estimated. Cancer survival rates, lifetime, and age-conditional probability of developing cancer and risk of dying from cancer are calculated and interpreted. The results are published regularly. With increasing completeness of registration, multiple notification of cases in different registries and their exclusion by matching procedures becomes more important. With increasing completeness of registration, further problems can be addressed such as the incidence of rare cancer sites or the analysis of regional patterns of cancer incidence and their underlying causes. Given the different legal requirements of cancer registration in the federal states of Germany, a national institution such as the Federal Cancer Reporting Unit in the Robert Koch Institute, which is not directly involved in cancer registration, can perform these activities best.
Subject(s)
Neoplasms/epidemiology , Population Surveillance , Registries , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Germany/epidemiology , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Linear Models , Male , Middle Aged , Neoplasms/mortality , Risk Factors , SEER Program , Sex FactorsABSTRACT
In Germany presently no nationwide cancer registration exists. To estimate national cancer incidence, Poisson regression models were fitted to incidence/mortality ratios using age and sex specific data of the cancer registry of Saarland, Germany and were then applied to national mortality. The models estimate the absolute number of incident cases at a given point in time and moreover allow the assessment of time trends. Applied to nationwide mortality the models imply a total of 347,000 new cancer cases in Germany for 1998 with 179,000 females and 168,000 males. During the nineties the age-standardised rate (European standard) has slightly decreased for males and slightly increased for females.
