Neurodevelopment in preschool children exposed and unexposed to Zika virus in utero in Nicaragua: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Data on long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes of normocephalic children (born with normal head circumference) exposed to Zika virus in utero are scarce. We aimed to compare neurodevelopmental outcomes in normocephalic children up to age 48 months with and without Zika virus exposure in utero. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we included infants from two cohorts of normocephalic children born in León and Managua, Nicaragua during the 2016 Zika epidemic. In León, all women pregnant during the two enrolment periods were eligible. In Managua, mother-child pairs were included from three districts in the municipality of Managua: all women who became pregnant before June 15, 2016, and had a due date of Sept 15, 2016 or later were eligible. Infants were serologically classified as Zika virus-exposed or Zika virus-unexposed in utero and were followed up prospectively until age 48 months. At 36 months and 48 months of age, the Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL) assessment was administered. Primary outcomes were MSEL early learning composite (ELC) scores at 30-48 months in León and 36-48 months in Managua. We used an inverse probability weighting generalised estimating equations model to assess the effect of Zika virus exposure on individual MSEL cognitive domain scores and ELC scores, adjusted for maternal education and age, poverty status, and infant sex. FINDINGS: The initial enrolment period for the León cohort was between Jan 31 and April 5, 2017 and the second was between Aug 30, 2017, and Feb 22, 2018. The enrolment period for the Managua cohort was between Oct 24, 2019, and May 5, 2020. 478 mothers (482 infants) from the León cohort and 615 mothers (609 infants) from the Managua cohort were enrolled, of whom 622 children (303 from the León cohort; 319 from the Managua cohort) were included in the final analysis; four children had microcephaly at birth and thus were excluded from analyses, two from each cohort. 33 (11%) of 303 children enrolled in León and 219 (69%) of 319 children enrolled in Managua were exposed to Zika virus in utero. In both cohorts, no significant differences were identified in adjusted mean ELC scores between Zika virus-exposed and unexposed infants at 36 months (between-group difference 1·2 points [95% CI -4·2 to 6·5] in the León cohort; 2·8 [-2·4 to 8·1] in the Managua cohort) or at 48 months (-0·9 [-10·8 to 8·8] in the León cohort; 0·1 [-5·1 to 5·2] in the Managua cohort). No differences in ELC scores between Zika virus-exposed and unexposed infants exceeded 6 points at any time between 30 months and 48 months in León or between 36 months and 48 months in Managua, which was considered clinically significant in other settings. INTERPRETATION: We found no significant differences in neurodevelopmental scores between normocephalic children with in-utero Zika virus exposure and Zika virus-unexposed children at age 36 months or 48 months. These findings are promising, supporting typical neurodevelopment in Zika virus-exposed normocephalic children, although additional follow-up and research is warranted. FUNDING: National Institute of Child Health and Development, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Fogarty International Center. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Clinical Spectrum of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection and Protection From Symptomatic Reinfection.

BACKGROUND: There are few data on the full spectrum of disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection across the lifespan from community-based or nonclinical settings. METHODS: We followed 2338 people in Managua, Nicaragua, aged <94 years from March 2020 through March 2021. SARS-CoV-2 infection was identified through real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or through enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Disease presentation was assessed at the time of infection or retrospectively by survey at the time of blood collection. RESULTS: There was a large epidemic that peaked between March and August 2020. In total, 129 RT-PCR-positive infections were detected, for an overall incidence rate of 5.3 infections per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.4-6.3). Seroprevalence was 56.7% (95% CI, 53.5%-60.1%) and was consistent from age 11 through adulthood but was lower in children aged ≤10 years. Overall, 31.0% of the infections were symptomatic, with 54.7% mild, 41.6% moderate, and 3.7% severe. There were 2 deaths that were likely due to SARS-CoV-2 infection, yielding an infection fatality rate of 0.2%. Antibody titers exhibited a J-shaped curve with respect to age, with the lowest titers observed among older children and young adults and the highest among older adults. When compared to SARS-CoV-2-seronegative individuals, SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity at the midyear sample was associated with 93.6% protection from symptomatic reinfection (95% CI, 51.1%-99.2%). CONCLUSIONS: This population exhibited a very high SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity with lower-than-expected severity, and immunity from natural infection was protective against symptomatic reinfection.

Epidemics of chikungunya, Zika, and COVID-19 reveal bias in case-based mapping.

Accurate tracing of epidemic spread over space enables effective control measures. We examined three metrics of infection and disease in a pediatric cohort (N≈3,000) over two chikungunya and one Zika epidemic, and in a household cohort (N=1,793) over one COVID-19 epidemic in Managua, Nicaragua. We compared spatial incidence rates (cases/total population), infection risks (infections/total population), and disease risks (cases/infected population). We used generalized additive and mixed-effects models, Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic, and intracluster correlation coefficients. Across different analyses and all epidemics, incidence rates considerably underestimated infection and disease risks, producing large and spatially non-uniform biases distinct from biases due to incomplete case ascertainment. Infection and disease risks exhibited distinct spatial patterns, and incidence clusters inconsistently identified areas of either risk. While incidence rates are commonly used to infer infection and disease risk in a population, we find that this can induce substantial biases and adversely impact policies to control epidemics.