Global assessment of effective population sizes: Consistent taxonomic differences in meeting the 50/500 rule.

Effective population size (Ne) is a particularly useful metric for conservation as it affects genetic drift, inbreeding and adaptive potential within populations. Current guidelines recommend a minimum Ne of 50 and 500 to avoid short-term inbreeding and to preserve long-term adaptive potential respectively. However, the extent to which wild populations reach these thresholds globally has not been investigated, nor has the relationship between Ne and human activities. Through a quantitative review, we generated a dataset with 4610 georeferenced Ne estimates from 3829 populations, extracted from 723 articles. These data show that certain taxonomic groups are less likely to meet 50/500 thresholds and are disproportionately impacted by human activities; plant, mammal and amphibian populations had a <54% probability of reaching N ̂ e = 50 and a <9% probability of reaching N ̂ e = 500. Populations listed as being of conservation concern according to the IUCN Red List had a smaller median N ̂ e than unlisted populations, and this was consistent across all taxonomic groups. N ̂ e was reduced in areas with a greater Global Human Footprint, especially for amphibians, birds and mammals, however relationships varied between taxa. We also highlight several considerations for future works, including the role that gene flow and subpopulation structure plays in the estimation of N ̂ e in wild populations, and the need for finer-scale taxonomic analyses. Our findings provide guidance for more specific thresholds based on Ne and help prioritise assessment of populations from taxa most at risk of failing to meet conservation thresholds.

Microgeographic variation in demography and thermal regimes stabilize regional abundance of a widespread freshwater fish.

Predicting the persistence of species under climate change is an increasingly important objective in ecological research and management. However, biotic and abiotic heterogeneity can drive asynchrony in population responses at small spatial scales, complicating species-level assessments. For widely distributed species consisting of many fragmented populations, such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), understanding the drivers of asynchrony in population dynamics can improve the predictions of range-wide climate impacts. We analyzed the demographic time series from mark-recapture surveys of 11 natural brook trout populations in eastern Canada over 13 years to examine the extent, drivers, and consequences of fine-scale population variation. The focal populations were genetically differentiated, occupied a small area (~25 km2 ) with few human impacts, and experienced similar climate conditions. Recruitment was highly asynchronous, weakly related to climate variables and showed population-specific relationships with other demographic processes, generating diverse population dynamics. In contrast, individual growth was mostly synchronized among populations and driven by a shared positive relationship with stream temperature. Outputs from population-specific models were unrelated to four of the five hypothesized drivers (recruitment, growth, reproductive success, phylogenetic distance), but variation in groundwater inputs strongly influenced stream temperature regimes and stock-recruitment relationships. Finally, population asynchrony generated a portfolio effect that stabilized regional species abundance. Our results demonstrated that population demographics and habitat diversity at microgeographic scales can play a significant role in moderating species responses to climate change. Moreover, we suggest that the absence of human activities within study streams preserved natural habitat variation and contributed to asynchrony in brook trout abundance, while the small study area eased monitoring and increased the likelihood of detecting asynchrony. Therefore, anthropogenic habitat degradation, landscape context, and spatial scale must be considered when developing management strategies to monitor and maintain populations that are diverse, stable, and resilient to climate change.

Effects of climate on salmonid productivity: A global meta-analysis across freshwater ecosystems.

Salmonids are of immense socio-economic importance in much of the world, but are threatened by climate change. This has generated a substantial literature documenting the effects of climate variation on salmonid productivity in freshwater ecosystems, but there has been no global quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to gain quantitative insight into key factors shaping the effects of climate on salmonid productivity, ultimately collecting 1321 correlations from 156 studies, representing 23 species across 24 countries. Fisher's Z was used as the standardized effect size, and a series of weighted mixed-effects models were compared to identify covariates that best explained variation in effects. Patterns in climate effects were complex and were driven by spatial (latitude, elevation), temporal (time-period, age-class), and biological (range, habitat type, anadromy) variation within and among study populations. These trends were often consistent with predictions based on salmonid thermal tolerances. Namely, warming and decreased precipitation tended to reduce productivity when high temperatures challenged upper thermal limits, while opposite patterns were common when cold temperatures limited productivity. Overall, variable climate impacts on salmonids suggest that future declines in some locations may be counterbalanced by gains in others. In particular, we suggest that future warming should (1) increase salmonid productivity at high latitudes and elevations (especially >60° and >1500 m), (2) reduce productivity in populations experiencing hotter and dryer growing season conditions, (3) favor non-native over native salmonids, and (4) impact lentic populations less negatively than lotic ones. These patterns should help conservation and management organizations identify populations most vulnerable to climate change, which can then be prioritized for protective measures. Our framework enables broad inferences about future productivity that can inform decision-making under climate change for salmonids and other taxa, but more widespread, standardized, and hypothesis-driven research is needed to expand current knowledge.

Opioid Prescriptions Among Women of Reproductive Age Enrolled in Medicaid - New York, 2008-2013.

Exposure to opioids during pregnancy can lead to adverse infant outcomes, including neonatal abstinence syndrome (1) and birth defects (2). Ascertaining opioid prescriptions for women who become pregnant or have no indication of contraceptive use is important to determine the number of women who are at potential risk for adverse fetal outcomes. The New York State (NYS) Department of Health (DOH) analyzed data for women aged 15-44 years (i.e., reproductive-aged women) enrolled in Medicaid to examine opioid drug prescriptions during 2008-2013. On the basis of Medicaid drug claims for any drug with an opioid ingredient, prescriptions were identified for the enrolled population of reproductive-aged women and for three subgroups: women whose diagnosis, procedure, and drug codes indicated contraceptive use or infertility; women who were not using contraceptives and not infertile; and women who had had a live birth during the reporting year. During 2008-2013, among all women of reproductive age, 20.0% received a prescription for a drug with an opioid component; the proportion was highest (27.3%) among women with an indication of contraceptive use or infertility, intermediate (17.3%) among women who had no indication of contraceptive use, and lowest (9.5%) among women who had had a live birth. Although New York's proportion of opioid prescriptions among female Medicaid recipients who had a live birth is lower than a recent U.S. estimate (3), these results suggest nearly one in 10 women in this group may have been exposed to opioids in the prenatal period.

The postoperative hemorrhage and hematoma patient safety indicator and its risk factors.

This study employed a retrospective cohort analysis using New York State's Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) to improve the Patient Safety Indicator (PSI) definition of postoperative hemorrhage/hematoma (POHH) and to identify patient risk factors associated with POHH. Study participants were nonobstetric, inpatient surgical admissions in SPARCS and readmissions within 30 days with a principal diagnosis of POHH. The main outcome measures were mortality rate, length of stay, and readmissions. The mortality rates of events identified by a secondary diagnosis only and by the PSI were not significantly different. The number of POHH events increased by 9.3% when readmissions were captured. The PSI definition of POHH may need modification to capture events with no secondary procedure. The PSI misses events identified on readmission, but the consequences of these events are not as severe as those currently captured. A variety of patient and hospital characteristics are predictive of a higher risk of POHH.

Readmissions for venous thromboembolism: expanding the definition of patient safety indicators.

BACKGROUND: The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) defines its venous thromboembolism (VTE) patient safety indicator (PSI) as surgical cases with a secondary diagnosis of pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis. Short-term readmissions for VTE are excluded because most state administrative databases are unable to track readmissions. METHODS: Patients meeting the AHRQ VTE PSI definition and those readmitted with a VTE principal diagnosis within 30 days of a prior surgical hospitalization were identified on the basis of inpatient discharge data. RESULTS: A total of 4,906 surgical discharges in New York met the AHRQ VTE PSI definition in 2001. An additional 1,059 cases of VTE were found when surgical patients with a short-term readmission for VTE were identified. Patients readmitted with VTE were less likely to die but were more likely to have a pulmonary embolism and were more likely to be white and non-Hispanic compared to those who met the AHRQ VTE PSI definition. DISCUSSION: Short-term readmissions for VTE represent potentially important cases to capture when monitoring adverse events. Prophylaxis, monitoring, and patient education may be required after hospital discharge to prevent or treat VTE as early as possible. Data systems that can track patients across multiple admissions to identify complications resulting in short-term readmissions are needed.

Prevalence of genotypic drug resistance among a cohort of HIV-infected newborns.

A retrospective, blinded study was conducted to examine the prevalence of antiretroviral drug resistance among a cohort of HIV-infected infants born in 1998 and 1999 in New York State. The earliest available HIV-positive specimen was tested. Most samples were from infants younger than 60 days of age. Genotype data were generated for the protease and reverse transcriptase genes of HIV-1 proviral DNA from 91 infected infants. Eleven infants (12.1%) had provirus with mutations associated with drug resistance, with all three classes of antiretroviral drugs represented. Two infants (2.2%) had mutations associated with resistance to two classes of antiretrovirals. Perinatal antiretroviral drug exposure was examined; it was not found to be significantly associated with the presence of resistance mutations. However, for those infants who had perinatal antiretroviral exposure and genotypic evidence of drug resistance to HIV, the mutations that were detected correlated with at least one antiretroviral from the perinatal period. The prevalence of genotypic drug resistance among this infant cohort is comparable with that found among recently infected adults. These results suggest that resistance testing should be strongly considered for perinatally infected infants, at the earliest possible time point, to avoid use of antiretroviral drugs to which the infant has preexisting resistance.