Multi-year data from satellite- and ground-based sensors show details and scale matter in assessing climate's effects on wetland surface water, amphibians, and landscape conditions.

Long-term, interdisciplinary studies of relations between climate and ecological conditions on wetland-upland landscapes have been lacking, especially studies integrated across scales meaningful for adaptive resource management. We collected data in situ at individual wetlands, and via satellite for surrounding 4-km2 landscape blocks, to assess relations between annual weather dynamics, snow duration, phenology, wetland surface-water availability, amphibian presence and calling activity, greenness, and evapotranspiration in four U.S. conservation areas from 2008 to 2012. Amid recent decades of relatively warm growing seasons, 2012 and 2010 were the first and second warmest seasons, respectively, dating back to 1895. Accordingly, we observed the earliest starts of springtime biological activity during those two years. In all years, early-season amphibians first called soon after daily mean air temperatures were ≥ 0°C and snow had mostly melted. Similarly, satellite-based indicators suggested seasonal leaf-out happened soon after snowmelt and temperature thresholds for plant growth had occurred. Daily fluctuations in weather and water levels were related to amphibian calling activity, including decoupling the timing of the onset of calling at the start of season from the onset of calling events later in the season. Within-season variation in temperature and precipitation also was related to vegetation greenness and evapotranspiration, but more at monthly and seasonal scales. Wetland water levels were moderately to strongly associated with precipitation and early or intermittent wetland drying likely reduced amphibian reproduction success in some years, even though Pseudacris crucifer occupied sites at consistently high levels. Notably, satellite-based indicators of landscape water availability did not suggest such consequential, intra-seasonal variability in wetland surface-water availability. Our cross-disciplinary data show how temperature and precipitation interacted to affect key ecological relations and outcomes on our study landscapes. These results demonstrate the value of multi-year studies and the importance of scale for understanding actual climate-related effects in these areas.

Past role and future outlook of the Conservation Reserve Program for supporting honey bees in the Great Plains.

Human dependence on insect pollinators continues to grow even as pollinators face global declines. The Northern Great Plains (NGP), a region often referred to as America's last honey bee (Apis mellifera) refuge, has undergone rapid land-cover change due to cropland expansion and weakened land conservation programs. We conducted a trend analysis and estimated conversion rates of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) enrollments around bee apiaries from 2006 to 2016 and developed models to identify areas of habitat loss. Our analysis revealed that NGP apiaries lost over 53% of lands enrolled in the CRP, and the rate of loss was highest in areas of high apiary density. We estimated over 163,000 ha of CRP lands in 2006 within 1.6 km of apiaries was converted to row crops by 2012. We also evaluated how alternative scenarios of future CRP acreage caps may affect habitat suitability for supporting honey bee colonies. Our scenario revealed that a further reduction in CRP lands to 7.7 million ha nationally would reduce the number of apiaries in the NGP that meet defined forage criteria by 28% on average. Alternatively, increasing the national cap to 15 million ha would increase the number of NGP apiaries that meet defined forage criteria by 155%. Our scenarios also show that strategic placement of CRP lands near existing apiaries increased the number of apiaries that meet forage criteria by 182%. Our research will be useful for informing the potential consequences of future US farm bill policy and land management in the epicenter of the US beekeeping industry.

Challenges in Complementing Data from Ground-Based Sensors with Satellite-Derived Products to Measure Ecological Changes in Relation to Climate-Lessons from Temperate Wetland-Upland Landscapes.

Assessing climate-related ecological changes across spatiotemporal scales meaningful to resource managers is challenging because no one method reliably produces essential data at both fine and broad scales. We recently confronted such challenges while integrating data from ground- and satellite-based sensors for an assessment of four wetland-rich study areas in the U.S. Midwest. We examined relations between temperature and precipitation and a set of variables measured on the ground at individual wetlands and another set measured via satellite sensors within surrounding 4 km² landscape blocks. At the block scale, we used evapotranspiration and vegetation greenness as remotely sensed proxies for water availability and to estimate seasonal photosynthetic activity. We used sensors on the ground to coincidentally measure surface-water availability and amphibian calling activity at individual wetlands within blocks. Responses of landscape blocks generally paralleled changes in conditions measured on the ground, but the latter were more dynamic, and changes in ecological conditions on the ground that were critical for biota were not always apparent in measurements of related parameters in blocks. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of decisions and assumptions we made in applying the remotely sensed data for the assessment and the value of integrating observations across scales, sensors, and disciplines.

Mapping large-area landscape suitability for honey bees to assess the influence of land-use change on sustainability of national pollination services.

Pollination is a critical ecosystem service affected by various drivers of land-use change, such as policies and programs aimed at land resources, market values for crop commodities, local land-management decisions, and shifts in climate. The United States is the world's most active market for pollination services by honey bees, and the Northern Great Plains provide the majority of bee colonies used to meet the Nation's annual pollination needs. Legislation requiring increased production of biofuel crops, increasing commodity prices for crops of little nutritional value for bees in the Northern Great Plains, and reductions in government programs aimed at promoting land conservation are converging to alter the regional landscape in ways that challenge beekeepers to provide adequate numbers of hives for national pollination services. We developed a spatially explicit model that identifies sites with the potential to support large apiaries based on local-scale land-cover requirements for honey bees. We produced maps of potential apiary locations for North Dakota, a leading producer of honey, based on land-cover maps representing (1) an annual time series compiled from existing operational products and (2) a realistic scenario of land change. We found that existing land-cover products lack sufficient local accuracy to monitor actual changes in landscape suitability for honey bees, but our model proved informative for evaluating effects on suitability under scenarios of land change. The scenario we implemented was aligned with current drivers of land-use change in the Northern Great Plains and highlighted the importance of conservation lands in landscapes intensively and extensively managed for crops.

Predicting impacts of increased CO2 and climate change on the water cycle and water quality in the semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA.

Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO(2) concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO(3)-N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO(2), precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO(2) concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO(3)-N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO(3)-N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin.

Predicting breeding habitat for amphibians: a spatiotemporal analysis across Yellowstone National Park.

The ability to predict amphibian breeding across landscapes is important for informing land management decisions and helping biologists better understand and remediate factors contributing to declines in amphibian populations. We built geospatial models of likely breeding habitats for each of four amphibian species that breed in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). We used field data collected in 2000-2002 from 497 sites among 16 basins and predictor variables from geospatial models produced from remotely sensed data (e.g., digital elevation model, complex topographic index, landform data, wetland probability, and vegetative cover). Except for 31 sites in one basin that were surveyed in both 2000 and 2002, all sites were surveyed once. We used polytomous regression to build statistical models for each species of amphibian from (1) field survey site data only, (2) field data combined with data from geospatial models, and (3) data from geospatial models only. Based on measures of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores, models of the second type best explained likely breeding habitat because they contained the most information (ROC values ranged from 0.70 to 0.88). However, models of the third type could be applied to the entire YNP landscape and produced maps that could be verified with reserve field data. Accuracy rates for models built for single years were highly variable, ranging from 0.30 to 0.78. Accuracy rates for models built with data combined from multiple years were higher and less variable, ranging from 0.60 to 0.80. Combining results from the geospatial multiyear models yielded maps of "core" breeding areas (areas with high probability values for all three years) surrounded by areas that scored high for only one or two years, providing an estimate of variability among years. Such information can highlight landscape options for amphibian conservation. For example, our models identify alternative areas that could be protected for each species, including 6828-10 764 ha for tiger salamanders, 971-3017 ha for western toads, 4732-16 696 ha for boreal chorus frogs, and 4940-19 690 ha for Columbia spotted frogs.

Using an ecoregion framework to analyze land-cover and land-use dynamics.

The United States has a highly varied landscape because of wide-ranging differences in combinations of climatic, geologic, edaphic, hydrologic, vegetative, and human management (land use) factors. Land uses are dynamic, with the types and rates of change dependent on a host of variables, including land accessibility, economic considerations, and the internal increase and movement of the human population. There is a convergence of evidence that ecoregions are very useful for organizing, interpreting, and reporting information about land-use dynamics. Ecoregion boundaries correspond well with patterns of land cover, urban settlement, agricultural variables, and resource-based industries. We implemented an ecoregion framework to document trends in contemporary land-cover and land-use dynamics over the conterminous United States from 1973 to 2000. Examples of results from six eastern ecoregions show that the relative abundance, grain of pattern, and human alteration of land-cover types organize well by ecoregion and that these characteristics of change, themselves, change through time.