Measuring the impact of COVID-19 on cancer survival using an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer survival. Those studies that have included pandemic vs prepandemic comparisons can mask differences during different periods of the pandemic such as COVID-19 waves. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer survival using an interrupted time series analysis and to identify time points during the pandemic when observed survival deviated from expected survival. METHODS: A retrospective population-based cohort study that included individuals diagnosed with cancer between January 2015 and September 2021 from Manitoba, Canada, was performed. Interrupted time series analyses with Royston-Parmar models as well as Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and delta restricted mean survival times at 1 year were used to compare survival rates for those diagnosed before and after the pandemic. Analyses were performed for 11 cancer types. RESULTS: Survival at 1 year for most cancer types was not statistically different during the pandemic compared with prepandemic except for individuals aged 50-74 years who were diagnosed with lung cancer from April to June 2021 (delta restricted mean survival times = -31.6 days, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -58.3 to -7.2 days). CONCLUSIONS: With the exception of individuals diagnosed with lung cancer, the COVID-19 pandemic did not impact overall 1-year survival in Manitoba. Additional research is needed to examine the impact of the pandemic on long-term cancer survival.

Real-world predictors of survival in patients with limited-stage small-cell lung cancer in Manitoba, Canada.

Background: Although therapy for limited-stage small-cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) is administered with curative intent, most patients relapse and eventually die of recurrent disease. Chemotherapy (CT) with concurrent radiotherapy (RT) remains the standard of care for LS-SCLC; however, this could evolve in the near future. Therefore, understanding the current prognostic factors associated with survival is essential. Objective: This real-world analysis examines factors associated with long-term survival in patients with LS-SCLC treated with CT in Manitoba, Canada. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using Manitoba Cancer Registry and CancerCare Manitoba records. Eligible patients were aged >18 years and had cytologically confirmed LS-SCLC diagnosed between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2018, for which they received CT ± RT. Baseline patient, disease, and treatment characteristics and survival duration, characterized as short (<6 months), medium (6-24 months), and long term (>24 months), were extracted. Overall survival (OS) was estimated at one, two, and five years and assessed using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Over the 15-year study period, 304 patients met the eligibility criteria. Long-term survivors comprised 39.1% of the cohort; at diagnosis, this subgroup was younger, more likely to have Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG PS) 0, and have normal lactate dehydrogenase, sodium, and hemoglobin levels. OS estimates for the entire cohort at one, two, and five years were 66%, 38%, and 18%, respectively. In the ECOG PS 0 subgroup, OS estimates at one, two, and five years were 85%, 52%, and 24%, respectively; OS estimates were 60%, 35%, and 17%, respectively, for ECOG PS 1-2 and were 47%, 23%, and 10%, respectively, for ECOG PS 3-4. OS was significantly higher among patients with normal serum sodium and hemoglobin levels than those with abnormal levels. Univariable hazard regression models found that ECOG PS, age at diagnosis, receipt of prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI), and thoracic RT were associated with survival. On multivariable hazard regression, ECOG PS and receipt of PCI were associated with survival. Conclusion: Survival for greater than two years in patients with LS-SCLC treated with CT ± RT was associated with ECOG PS and receipt of PCI.

Cancer incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic by region of residence in Manitoba, Canada: A cancer registry-based interrupted time series study.

INTRODUCTION: Health care in Manitoba, Canada is divided into five regions, each with unique geographies, demographics, health care access, and health status. COVID-19-related restrictions and subsequent responses also differed by region. To understand the impact of the pandemic on cancer incidence in the context of these differences, we examined age-standardized cancer incidence rates by region over time before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We used a population-based quasi-experimental study design, population-based data, and an interrupted time series analysis to examine the rate of new cancer diagnoses before (January 2015 until December 2019) and after the start of COVID-19 and the interventions implemented to mitigate its impact (April 2020 until December 2021) by region. RESULTS: Overall cancer incidence differed by region and remained lower than expected in Winnipeg (4.6% deficit, 447 cases), Prairie Mountain (6.9% deficit, 125 cases), and Southern (13.0% deficit, 238 cases). Southern was the only region that had a significantly higher deficit in cases compared to Manitoba (ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.86, 0.99). Breast and colorectal cancer incidence decreased at the start of the pandemic in all regions except Northern. Lung cancer incidence decreased in the Interlake-Eastern region and increased in the Northern region. Prostate cancer incidence increased in Interlake-Eastern. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer incidence differed by region. The deficit in the number of cases was largest in the southern region and was highest for breast and prostate cancers. Cancer incidence did not significantly decrease in the most northern, remote region.

Real-world predictors of survival in patients with extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer in Manitoba, Canada: a retrospective cohort study.

Background: Extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) is an incurable cancer with poor prognosis in which characteristics predictive of long-term survival are debated. The utility of agents such as immune checkpoint inhibitors highlights the importance of identifying key characteristics and treatment strategies that contribute to long-term survival and could help guide therapeutic decisions. Objective: This real-world analysis examines the characteristics, treatment patterns, and clinical outcomes of patients receiving chemotherapy without immunotherapy for ES-SCLC in Manitoba, Canada. Methods: A retrospective cohort study assessed patient characteristics, treatment, and survival duration (short: <6 months; medium: 6-24 months; long: >24 months) using the Manitoba Cancer Registry and CancerCare Manitoba records. Eligible patients were aged >18 years with cytologically confirmed ES-SCLC diagnosed between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2018, and received cytotoxic chemotherapy (CT). The one-, two-, and five-year probabilities of overall survival (OS) were assessed relative to patient, disease, and treatment characteristics using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards models. Results: This analysis included 537 patients. Cisplatin was used in 56.1% of patients, 45.6% received thoracic radiotherapy (RT), and few received prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI). In the overall cohort, one-, two- and five-year OS rates were 26%, 8%, and 3%, respectively. For patients with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG PS) 0, OS rates at one, two, and five years were 43%, 17%, and 10%, respectively, vs. 27%, 8%, and 2% for those with ECOG PS 1-2, and 16%, 3%, and 3% for those with ECOG PS 3-4. In long-term survivors, ECOG PS scores were lower and abnormal laboratory test results were less frequent. Overall, 74.4% of long-term survivors received thoracic RT and 53.5% received PCI. Known poor prognostic factors - including brain/liver metastases, high lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), abnormal sodium, and low hemoglobin levels - were less common but still seen in long-term survivors. Conclusion: Although rare, patients with ES-SCLC may experience long-term survival with CT ± thoracic RT ± PCI. Factors predicting long-term survival include traditional prognostic factors such as ECOG PS, LDH level, and receipt of thoracic RT or PCI. These findings support current treatment algorithms for ES-SCLC and provide baseline survival estimates to assess the real-world impact of adding immune checkpoint inhibitors in the future.

Evaluation of the Impact of the Urgent Cancer Care Clinic on Emergency Department Visits, Primary Care Clinician Visits, and Hospitalizations in Winnipeg, Manitoba.

The urgent cancer care (UCC) clinic at CancerCare Manitoba (CCMB) opened in 2013 to provide care to individuals diagnosed with cancer and serious blood disorders experiencing complications from the underlying disorder or its treatment. This study examined the impact of the UCC clinic on other health care utilization in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. An interrupted time series study design was used to compare the rates of emergency department (ED) visits, primary care clinician (PCC) visits, and hospitalizations from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015. Rates of ED visits were also stratified by ED location, severity, and cancer type. We found a 6% (95% CI 1.00-1.13, p-value = 0.0389) increase in PCC visits, a 7% (95% CI 0.99-1.15, p-value = 0.0737) increase in hospitalizations, a 4% (95% CI 0.86-1.08, p-value = 0.5053) decrease in the rate of ED visits, and a 3% (95% CI 0.92-1.17, p-value = 0.5778) increase in the rate of ED visits during the UCC clinic hours after the UCC clinic opened. The implementation of the UCC clinic had minimal impact on health care utilization. Future work should examine the impact of the UCC clinic on other aspects of healthcare utilization (e.g., number of tests ordered and time spent waiting in CCMB's main clinics) and patient quality of life and patient and health care provider experience.

Predictors of Urgent Cancer Care Clinic and Emergency Department Visits for Individuals Diagnosed with Cancer.

In 2013, CancerCare Manitoba (CCMB) launched an urgent cancer care clinic (UCC) to meet the needs of individuals diagnosed with cancer experiencing acute complications of cancer or its treatment. This retrospective cohort study compared the characteristics of individuals diagnosed with cancer that visited the UCC to those who visited an emergency department (ED) and determined predictors of use. Multivariable logistic mixed models were run to predict an individual's likelihood of visiting the UCC or an ED. Scaled Brier scores were calculated to determine how greatly each predictor impacted UCC or ED use. We found that UCC visits increased up to 4 months after eligibility to visit and then decreased. ED visits were highest immediately after eligibility and then decreased. The median number of hours between triage and discharge was 2 h for UCC visits and 9 h for ED visits. Chemotherapy had the strongest association with UCC visits, whereas ED visits prior to diagnosis had the strongest association with ED visits. Variables related to socioeconomic status were less strongly associated with UCC or ED visits. Future studies would be beneficial to planning service delivery and improving clinical outcomes and patient satisfaction.

Examining the impact of the number of regions used in cluster detection methods: An application to childhood asthma visits to a hospital in Manitoba, Canada.

The level of spatial aggregation is a major concern in cluster investigations. Combining regions to protect privacy may result in a loss of power and thus, can limit the information researchers can obtain. The impact of spatial aggregation on the ability to detect clusters is examined in this study, which shows the importance of choosing the correct level of spatial aggregation in cluster investigations. We applied the circular spatial scan statistic (CSS), flexible spatial scan statistic (FSS) and Bayesian disease mapping (BYM) approaches to a dataset containing childhood asthma visits to a hospital in Manitoba, Canada, using three different levels of spatial aggregation. Specifically, we used 56, 67 and 220 regions in the analysis, respectively. It is expected that the three scenarios will yield different results and will highlight the importance of using the right level of spatial aggregation. The three methods (CSS, FSS, BYM) examined in this study performed similarly when detecting potential clusters. However, for different levels of spatial aggregation, the potential clusters identified were different. As the number of regions used in the analysis increased, the total area identified in the cluster decreased. In general, potential clusters were identified in the central and northern parts of Manitoba. Overall, it is crucial to identify the appropriate number of regions to study spatial patterns of disease as it directly affects the results and consequently the conclusions. Additional investigation through future work is needed to determine which scenario of spatial aggregation is best.

Predictors of Residual Disease After Breast Conservation Surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Breast-conserving therapy is the standard of care for early-stage breast cancer. In the era of multimodality therapy, the debate on the value of revision surgery for compromised margins continues, and high re-excision rates persist despite updated guidelines. Our study sought to identify the local re-excision rate for compromised margins after lumpectomy, and identify predictors of residual disease at re-excision. METHODS: This population-based retrospective cohort study included women with breast cancer who underwent a lumpectomy between 2009 and 2012 in Manitoba, with close (≤ 2 mm) or positive margins that led to re-excision. Patient demographics and tumor characteristics were identified through provincial cancer registries and chart reviews. For patients with invasive cancer, the six anatomical margins were reported for margin status, width, and pathology type at the margin. RESULTS: Of the 2494 patients identified, 556 women underwent re-excision, yielding a re-excision rate of 22.29%. Of our 311 patients with invasive cancer who underwent re-excision, 62.7% had residual disease identified on revision. On univariable analysis, the size and grade of the invasive component, nodal stage, and the number of positive margins were associated with residual disease on re-excision (p < 0.05). With the exception of nodal stage, the same variables remained statistically significant on multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that even in the absence of 'no ink on tumor', the cancer size and grade in lumpectomy specimens are high-risk factors for residual disease, and this subgroup of patients may benefit from re-excision. Long-term follow-up of this cohort is required to determine their risk of recurrence after adjuvant treatment.

Targeting the Tumor: Assessing the Impact of Bladder Volume and Position on Accuracy of Radiation Delivery for Patients with Bladder Cancer.

Context Daily variations in bladder size and position can negatively impact the ability to accurately deliver radiation. Aims We attempted to quantify how bladder volumes and positions change over the course of radiotherapy for muscle invasive bladder cancer and the planning target volume (PTV) margins required to account for such changes. Methods and material Cone-beam computed tomography (CT) images of 28 patients during their first, second, and third fractions and weekly thereafter were acquired. Bladders were contoured and the volume, centre of mass, and the maximal positions were recorded and compared to the planning CT scan. Statistical analysis Bladder parameters were analysed using regression analysis examining for time trends and correlation to the patient, tumour, or treatment-related factors. Results There was great variability in the mean bladder volumes during the radiotherapy courses (154.17 +/- 129.38 cm3). There were no statistically significant trends for volume changes. Deviations in bladder positions were seen but were small in magnitude. No patient factors were identified which could help predict bladder changes clinically. Bladder variability resulted in a high percentage of fractions (39.6%) in which part of the bladder was outside the PTV. Calculated PTV margins (for 90% of the population to receive 95% of the prescription dose) were 1.48 cm right, 1.15 cm left, 2.13 cm posterior, 1.52 cm anterior, 2.23 cm superior, and 0.52 cm inferior. Conclusions Because of random bladder changes, a significant number of fractions were treated in which the clinical target volume (CTV) fell outside of the PTV. Methods to minimize the amount of CTV that is missed on a fraction to fraction basis should be explored.

Small Cell Cancer of the Bladder and Prostate: A Retrospective Review from a Tertiary Cancer Center.

BACKGROUND:  Genitourinary small cell cancer (GUSCC) is a rare malignancy. Most of the published data on how to manage this malignancy is based on institutional experience. We undertook the current retrospective review to determine the outcome of the patients with GUSCC treated at CancerCare Manitoba, Canada over a period of 18 years. METHODS: The Manitoba Cancer Registry was used to identify patients with a confirmed pathological diagnosis of small cell cancer (SCC) of the bladder or prostate between January 1, 1995, and October 31, 2013. RESULTS:  There were 42 patients identified, 28 bladder SCC (17 limited, 11 extensive stage) and 14 prostate SCC (one limited, 12 extensive, and one unknown stage). The median age was 70.7 years. There were 22 patients who were treated with chemotherapy and radiation, five received radiation only, four received chemo only, nine did not receive any treatment, one patient had surgery only, and one had surgery and radiation. The median and one-year overall survival for all patients was 10.7 months and 43%. The median and one-year overall survival of SCC of the bladder was 55.1 months and 71% for the limited stage and 10.1 months and 36% for the extensive stage. The median and one-year overall survival for extensive stage SCC of the prostate was 4.1 months and 17%. There was only one patient with limited stage SCC of the prostate who did not receive any treatment and died of progressive disease 11 months from diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS:  Our findings suggest that patients with limited stage SCC of the bladder can have a surprisingly good outcome with multimodality treatment. The outcome of the patients with extensive stage SCC of the bladder and prostate remains dismal and optimal therapeutic options have yet to be determined.

Geographical variation in the incidence of childhood leukaemia in Manitoba.

BACKGROUND: Identification of geographical areas and ecological factors associated with higher incidence of childhood leukaemias can direct further study for preventable factors and location of health services to manage such individuals. AIM: The aim of this study was to describe the geographical variation and the socio-demographic factors associated with childhood leukaemia in Manitoba. METHODS: Information on childhood leukaemia incidence between 1992 and 2008 was obtained from the Canadian Cancer Registry and the socio-demographic characteristics for the area of residence from the 2006 Canadian Census. Bayesian spatial Poisson mixed models were used to describe the geographical variation of childhood leukaemia and to determine the association between childhood leukaemia and socio-demographic factors. RESULTS: The south-eastern part of the province had a higher incidence of childhood leukaemia than other parts of the province. In the age and sex-adjusted Poisson regression models, areas with higher proportions of visible minorities and immigrant residents had higher childhood leukaemia incidence rate ratios. In the saturated Poisson regression model, the childhood leukaemia rates were higher in areas with higher proportions of immigrant residents. Unemployment rates were not a significant factor in leukaemia incidence. CONCLUSION: In Manitoba, areas with higher proportions of immigrants experience higher incidence rates of childhood leukaemia. We have identified geographical areas with higher incidence, which require further study and attention.

Nabilone as an adjunctive to gabapentin for multiple sclerosis-induced neuropathic pain: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Neuropathic pain (NPP) is a chronic syndrome suffered by patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), for which there is no cure. Underlying cellular mechanisms involved in its pathogenesis are multifaceted, presenting significant challenges in its management. METHODS: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study involving 15 relapsing-remitting MS patients with MS-induced NPP was conducted to evaluate nabilone combined with gabapentin (GBP). Eligible patients stabilized on GBP (≥1,800 mg/day) with inadequate pain relief were recruited. Nabilone or placebo was titrated over 4 weeks (0.5 mg/week increase) followed by 5-week maintenance of 1 mg oral nabilone (placebo) twice daily. Primary outcomes included two daily patient-reported measures using a 100-mm visual analog scale (VAS), pain intensity (VASpain), and impact of pain on daily activities (VASimpact). Hierarchical regression modeling was conducted on each outcome to determine if within-person pain trajectory differed across study groups, during 63-day follow-up. RESULTS: After adjustment for key patient-level covariates (e.g., age, sex, Expanded Disability Status Scale, duration of MS, baseline pain), a significant group × time(2) interaction term was reported for both the VASpain (P < 0.01) and VASimpact score (P < 0.01), demonstrating the adjusted rate of decrease for both outcomes was statistically greater in nabilone vs placebo study group. No significant difference in attrition rates was noted between treatments. Nabilone was well tolerated, with dizziness/drowsiness most frequently reported. CONCLUSION: Nabilone as an adjunctive to GBP is an effective, well-tolerated combination for MS-induced NPP. The results of this study identify a novel therapeutic combination for use in this population of patients predisposed to tolerability issues that may otherwise prevent effective pain management.