The relative efficiency of time-to-threshold and rate of change in longitudinal data.

Randomized, placebo-controlled trials often use time-to-event as the primary endpoint, even when a continuous measure of disease severity is available. We compare the power to detect a treatment effect using either rate of change, as estimated by linear models of longitudinal continuous data, or time-to-event estimated by Cox proportional hazards models. We propose an analytic inflation factor for comparing the two types of analyses assuming that the time-to-event can be expressed as a time-to-threshold of the continuous measure. We conduct simulations based on a publicly available Alzheimer's disease data set in which the time-to-event is algorithmically defined based on a battery of assessments. A Cox proportional hazards model of the time-to-event endpoint is compared to a linear model of a single assessment from the battery. The simulations also explore the impact of baseline covariates in either analysis.

Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI): clinical characterization.

BACKGROUND: Neuroimaging measures and chemical biomarkers may be important indices of clinical progression in normal aging and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and need to be evaluated longitudinally. OBJECTIVE: To characterize cross-sectionally and longitudinally clinical measures in normal controls, subjects with MCI, and subjects with mild Alzheimer disease (AD) to enable the assessment of the utility of neuroimaging and chemical biomarker measures. METHODS: A total of 819 subjects (229 cognitively normal, 398 with MCI, and 192 with AD) were enrolled at baseline and followed for 12 months using standard cognitive and functional measures typical of clinical trials. RESULTS: The subjects with MCI were more memory impaired than the cognitively normal subjects but not as impaired as the subjects with AD. Nonmemory cognitive measures were only minimally impaired in the subjects with MCI. The subjects with MCI progressed to dementia in 12 months at a rate of 16.5% per year. Approximately 50% of the subjects with MCI were on antidementia therapies. There was minimal movement on the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale for the normal control subjects, slight movement for the subjects with MCI of 1.1, and a modest change for the subjects with AD of 4.3. Baseline CSF measures of Abeta-42 separated the 3 groups as expected and successfully predicted the 12-month change in cognitive measures. CONCLUSION: The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative has successfully recruited cohorts of cognitively normal subjects, subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and subjects with Alzheimer disease with anticipated baseline characteristics. The 12-month progression rate of MCI was as predicted, and the CSF measures heralded progression of clinical measures over 12 months.

Volumetric MRI vs clinical predictors of Alzheimer disease in mild cognitive impairment.

OBJECTIVE: To compare volumetric MRI of whole brain and medial temporal lobe structures to clinical measures for predicting progression from amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer disease (AD). METHODS: Baseline MRI scans from 129 subjects with amnestic MCI were obtained from participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study group's randomized, placebo-controlled clinical drug trial of donepezil, vitamin E, or placebo. Measures of whole brain, ventricular, hippocampal, and entorhinal cortex volumes were acquired. Participants were followed with clinical and cognitive evaluations until formal criteria for AD were met, or completion of 36 months of follow-up. Logistic regression modeling was done to assess the predictive value of all MRI measures, risk factors such as APOE genotype, age, family history of AD, education, sex, and cognitive test scores for progression to AD. Least angle regression modeling was used to determine which variables would produce an optimal predictive model, and whether adding MRI measures to a model with only clinical measures would improve predictive accuracy. RESULTS: Of the four MRI measures evaluated, only ventricular volumes and hippocampal volumes were predictive of progression to AD. Maximal predictive accuracy using only MRI measures was obtained by hippocampal volumes by themselves (60.4%). When clinical variables were added to the model, the predictive accuracy increased to 78.8%. Use of MRI measures did not improve predictive accuracy beyond that obtained by cognitive measures alone. APOE status, MRI, or demographic variables were not necessary for the optimal predictive model. This optimal model included the Delayed 10-word list recall, New York University Delayed Paragraph Recall, and the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale total score. CONCLUSION: In moderate stages of amnestic mild cognitive impairment, common cognitive tests provide better predictive accuracy than measures of whole brain, ventricular, entorhinal cortex, or hippocampal volumes for assessing progression to Alzheimer disease.

Clinical predictors of progression to Alzheimer disease in amnestic mild cognitive impairment.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the neurocognitive measures that best predict progression from amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) to Alzheimer disease (AD). METHODS: We evaluated 539 participants with aMCI from the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study clinical drug trial of donepezil, vitamin E, or placebo. During the study period of 36 months, 212 aMCI participants progressed to AD. Using progression from aMCI to AD within 36 months as the dependent variable, a generalized linear model was fit to the data using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Independent variables included in this analysis were age, sex, education, APOE-e4 (APOE4) status, family history of dementia, Mini-Mental State Examination score, Digits Backwards (Wechsler Memory Scale), Maze Time and Errors, Number Cancellation, Delayed Recall of Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Word List, New York University Paragraph Recall Test (Immediate and Delayed), Boston Naming Test, Category Fluency, Clock Drawing Test, and the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog). RESULTS: The model that best predicted progression from aMCI to AD over 36 months included APOE4 status, the Symbol Digit Modalities Test, Delayed 10-Word List Recall, New York University Paragraph Recall Test (Delayed), and the ADAS-cog total score. When APOE4 was removed from the analysis the resulting model had a similar estimated predictive accuracy as the full model. As determined by cross-validation, the estimated predictive accuracy of the final model was 80%. CONCLUSION: Progression from amnestic mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease in this cohort was best determined by combining four common, easily administered, cognitive measures.

In vivo evidence of cerebellar atrophy and cerebral white matter loss in Huntington disease.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the regional pattern of white matter and cerebellar changes, as well as subcortical and cortical changes, in Huntington disease (HD) using morphometric analyses of structural MRI. METHODS: Fifteen individuals with HD and 22 controls were studied; groups were similar in age and education. Primary analyses defined six subcortical regions, the gray and white matter of primary cortical lobes and cerebellum, and abnormal signal in the cerebral white matter. RESULTS: As expected, basal ganglia and cerebral cortical gray matter volumes were significantly smaller in HD. The HD group also demonstrated significant cerebral white matter loss and an increase in the amount of abnormal signal in the white matter; occipital white matter appeared more affected than other cerebral white matter regions. Cortical gray and white matter measures were significantly related to caudate volume. Cerebellar gray and white matter volumes were both smaller in HD. CONCLUSIONS: The cerebellum and the integrity of cerebral white matter may play a more significant role in the symptomatology of HD than previously thought. Furthermore, changes in cortical gray and cerebral white matter were related to caudate atrophy, supporting a similar mechanism of degeneration.

Depression, visual acuity, comorbidity, and disability associated with age-related macular degeneration.

OBJECTIVE: To examine (1) the prevalence of depressive disorders in community-dwelling adults with advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and (2) the relationship in this population between depression, visual acuity, the number of comorbid medical conditions, disability caused by vision loss as measured by the National Eye Institute-Vision Function Questionnaire (NEI-VFQ) and the vision-specific Sickness Impact Profile (SIPV), and disability caused by overall health status as measured by the Sickness Impact Profile-68 (SIP). DESIGN: Analysis of cross-sectional baseline data from a randomized clinical trial. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were 151 adults aged 60 and older (mean age, 80 years) with advanced macular degeneration whose vision was 20/60 or worse in their better eye. METHODS: Subjects were interviewed using measures of depression, disability, and chronic medical conditions. Visual acuity was obtained. Nonparametric correlation analyses and linear regression analyses were performed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SCID-IV), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), NEI-VFQ, SIPV, and SIP. RESULTS: Of the participants, 32.5% (n = 49) met SCID-IV criteria for depressive disorder, twice the rate observed in previous studies of community-dwelling elderly. Over and above depression (GDS), visual acuity aided in prediction of the level of vision-specific disability (NEI-VFQ and SIPV). CONCLUSIONS: Depressive disorder is a significant problem for the elderly afflicted with advanced macular degeneration. Further research on psychopharmacologic and psychotherapeutic interventions for depressed AMD patients is warranted to improve depression and enhance functioning. Over and above depression, visual acuity aided in predicting vision-specific disability. Treatment strategies that teach patients to cope with vision loss should be developed and evaluated.

Effects of age on tissues and regions of the cerebrum and cerebellum.

Normal volunteers, aged 30 to 99 years, were studied with MRI. Age was related to estimated volumes of: gray matter, white matter, and CSF of the cerebrum and cerebellum; gray matter, white matter, white matter abnormality, and CSF within each cerebral lobe; and gray matter of eight subcortical structures. The results were: 1) Age-related losses in the hippocampus were significantly accelerated relative to gray matter losses elsewhere in the brain. 2) Among the cerebral lobes, the frontal lobes were disproportionately affected by cortical volume loss and increased white matter abnormality. 3) Loss of cerebral and cerebellar white matter occurred later than, but was ultimately greater than, loss of gray matter. It is estimated that between the ages of 30 and 90 volume loss averages 14% in the cerebral cortex, 35% in the hippocampus, and 26% in the cerebral white matter. Separate analyses were conducted in which genetic risk associated with the Apolipoprotein E epsilon4 allele was either overrepresented or underrepresented among elderly participants. Accelerated loss of hippocampal volume was observed with both analyses and thus does not appear to be due to the presence of at-risk subjects. MR signal alterations in the tissues of older individuals pose challenges to the validity of current methods of tissue segmentation, and should be considered in the interpretation of the results.

Region and tissue differences of metabolites in normally aged brain using multislice 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging.

Quantitative measurements of regional and tissue specific concentrations of brain metabolites were measured in elderly subjects using multislice proton magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging ((1)H MRSI). Selective k-space extrapolation and an inversion-recovery sequence were used to minimize lipid contamination and linear regression was used to account for partial volume problems. The technique was applied to measure the concentrations of N-acetyl aspartate (NAA), and creatine (Cr)- and choline (Cho)-containing compounds in cortical gray and white matter, and white matter lesions of the frontal and the parietal lobe in 40 normal elderly subjects (22 females and 18 males, 56-89 years old, mean age 74 +/- 8). NAA was about 15% lower in cortical gray matter and 23% lower in white matter lesions when compared to normal white matter. Cr was 11% higher in cortical gray matter than in white matter, and also about 15% higher in the parietal cortex than in the frontal cortex. Cho was 28% lower in cortical gray matter than in white matter. Furthermore, NAA and Cr changes correlated with age. In conclusion, regional and tissue differences of brain metabolites must be considered in addition to age-related changes when interpreting (1)H MRSI data.

Cerebrospinal fluid HIV RNA originates from both local CNS and systemic sources.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the sources of HIV virions in CSF by modeling treatment-associated HIV dynamics. BACKGROUND: We postulated a model in which cell-free CSF virions originate from two major sources, namely, systemic non-CNS and CNS tissues, the latter including brain parenchyma and meninges. The model predicted that with initiation of antiretroviral therapy, the acute-phase decline in CSF HIV RNA levels would be controlled by the kinetics of the dominant virion source (systemic versus CNS). Based on prior observations, we hypothesized that the dominant source of CSF virions would shift from systemic to CNS in more advanced disease. METHODS: Three patient groups were studied: Group 1 (n = 5): nondemented, with early HIV disease (CD4+ lymphocytes > or = 400/microL) or pleocytosis (CSF leukocytes > or = 4/microL); Group 2 (n = 5): nondemented, with advanced HIV disease (CD4+ < 400/microL) and no pleocytosis; Group 3 (n = 2): patients with HIV-associated dementia (HAD). All patients began a new, highly active antiretroviral treatment regimen and underwent serial lumbar punctures and phlebotomies. RESULTS: For patients in Group 2, the rate of decline in CSF HIV RNA was slower than in plasma (p < 0.00001). For Group 1, the rate of decline in CSF was not different from plasma (p > 0.25). Patients with HAD showed high CSF HIV RNA after 5 to 6 weeks of treatment despite a 100-fold decrease in plasma HIV RNA. CONCLUSIONS: CSF and plasma HIV dynamics became increasingly independent in advanced HIV disease, and the compartmental discrepancy was largest in HAD. Our findings suggest that viral replication in CNS tissues may constitute a major, independent source of CSF HIV RNA. In patients with HAD, brain parenchyma itself may be the principal CNS tissue source, and CNS-targeted treatment strategies may be required to eradicate this infection.