A machine learning approach to predict mortality due to immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura.

Background: Mortality due to immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP) remains significant. Predicting mortality risk may potentially help individualize treatment. The French Thrombotic Microangiopathy (TMA) Reference Score has not been externally validated in the United States. Recent advances in machine learning technology can help analyze large numbers of variables with complex interactions for the development of prediction models. Objectives: To validate the French TMA Reference Score in the United States Thrombotic Microangiopathy (USTMA) iTTP database and subsequently develop a novel mortality prediction tool, the USTMA TTP Mortality Index. Methods: We analyzed variables available at the time of initial presentation, including demographics, symptoms, and laboratory findings. We developed our model using gradient boosting machine, a machine learning ensemble method based on classification trees, implemented in the R package gbm. Results: In our cohort (n = 419), the French score predicted mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.63 (95% CI: 0.50-0.77), sensitivity of 0.35, and specificity of 0.84. Our gradient boosting machine model selected 8 variables to predict acute mortality with a cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.71-0.82). The 2 cutoffs corresponded to sensitivities of 0.64 and 0.50 and specificities of 0.76 and 0.87, respectively. Conclusion: The USTMA Mortality Index was acceptable for predicting mortality due to acute iTTP in the USTMA registry, but not sensitive enough to rule out death. Identifying patients at high risk of iTTP-related mortality may help individualize care and ultimately improve iTTP survival outcomes. Further studies are needed to provide external validation. Our model is one of many recent examples where machine learning models may show promise in clinical prediction tools in healthcare.

Biomarkers of bleeding and venous thromboembolism in patients with acute leukemia.

BACKGROUND: Coagulopathy and associated bleeding and deep vein thrombosis (DVT) are major causes of morbidity and mortality in patients with acute leukemia. The underlying mechanisms of these complications have not been fully elucidated. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the associations between biomarker levels and bleeding and DVT in acute leukemia patients. METHODS: We examined plasma levels of activators, inhibitors, and biomarkers of the coagulation and fibrinolytic pathways in patients aged ≥18 years with newly diagnosed acute leukemia compared with those of normal controls. Multivariable regression models were used to examine the association of biomarkers with bleeding and DVT in acute leukemia patients. The study included 358 patients with acute leukemia (29 with acute promyelocytic leukemia [APL], 253 with non-APL acute myeloid leukemia, and 76 with acute lymphoblastic leukemia) and 30 normal controls. RESULTS: Patients with acute leukemia had higher levels of extracellular vesicle tissue factor (EVTF) activity, phosphatidylserine-positive extracellular vesicles, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, plasmin-antiplasmin complexes, and cell-free DNA and lower levels of citrullinated histone H3-DNA complexes compared with normal controls. APL patients had the highest levels of EVTF activity and the lowest levels of tissue plasminogen activator among acute leukemia patients. There were 41 bleeding and 23 DVT events in acute leukemia patients. High EVTF activity was associated with increased risk of bleeding (subdistribution hazard ratio, 2.30; 95% CI, 0.99-5.31), whereas high levels of plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 were associated with increased risk of DVT (subdistribution hazard ratio, 3.00; 95% CI, 0.95-9.47) in these patients. CONCLUSION: Our study shows alterations in several biomarkers in acute leukemia and identifies biomarkers associated with risk of bleeding and DVT.

Development and validation of a risk model for hospital-acquired venous thrombosis: the Medical Inpatients Thrombosis and Hemostasis study.

BACKGROUND: Regulatory organizations recommend assessing hospital-acquired (HA) venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk for medical inpatients. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a risk assessment model (RAM) for HA-VTE in medical inpatients using objective and assessable risk factors knowable at admission. METHODS: The development cohort included people admitted to medical services at the University of Vermont Medical Center (Burlington, Vermont) between 2010 and 2019, and the validation cohorts included people admitted to Hennepin County Medical Center (Minneapolis, Minnesota), University of Michigan Medical Center (Ann Arbor, Michigan), and Harris Health Systems (Houston, Texas). Individuals with VTE at admission, aged <18 years, and admitted for <1 midnight were excluded. We used a Bayesian penalized regression technique to select candidate HA-VTE risk factors for final inclusion in the RAM. RESULTS: The development cohort included 60 633 admissions and 227 HA-VTE, and the validation cohorts included 111 269 admissions and 651 HA-VTE. Seven HA-VTE risk factors with t statistics ≥1.5 were included in the RAM: history of VTE, low hemoglobin level, elevated creatinine level, active cancer, hyponatremia, increased red cell distribution width, and malnutrition. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration slope were 0.72 and 1.10, respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration slope were 0.70 and 0.93 at Hennepin County Medical Center, 0.70 and 0.87 at the University of Michigan Medical Center, and 0.71 and 1.00 at Harris Health Systems, respectively. The RAM performed well stratified by age, sex, and race. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated a RAM for HA-VTE in medical inpatients. By quantifying risk, clinicians can determine the potential benefits of measures to reduce HA-VTE.

Biomarkers of bleeding and venous thromboembolism in patients with acute leukemia.

Background: Coagulopathy and associated bleeding and venous thromboembolism (VTE) are major causes of morbidity and mortality in patients with acute leukemia. The underlying mechanisms of these complications have not been fully elucidated. Objectives: To evaluate the associations between biomarker levels and bleeding and VTE in acute leukemia patients. Patients/Method: We examined plasma levels of activators, inhibitors and biomarkers of the coagulation and fibrinolytic pathways in patients ≥18 years with newly diagnosed acute leukemia compared to healthy controls. Multivariable regression models were used to examine the association of biomarkers with bleeding and VTE in acute leukemia patients. The study included 358 patients with acute leukemia (29 acute promyelocytic leukemia [APL], 253 non-APL acute myeloid leukemia [AML] and 76 acute lymphoblastic leukemia [ALL]), and 30 healthy controls. Results: Patients with acute leukemia had higher levels of extracellular vesicle (EV) tissue factor (TF) activity, phosphatidylserine-positive EVs, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1), plasmin-antiplasmin complexes, cell-free DNA and lower levels of citrullinated histone H3-DNA complexes compared to healthy controls. APL patients had the highest levels of EVTF activity and the lowest levels of tissue plasminogen activator among the acute leukemia patients. There were 41 bleeding and 37 VTE events in acute leukemia patients. High EVTF activity was associated with increased risk of bleeding (sHR 2.30, 95%CI 0.99-5.31) whereas high PAI-1 was associated with increased risk of VTE (sHR 3.79, 95%CI 1.40-10.28) in these patients. Conclusions: Our study shows alterations in several biomarkers in acute leukemia and identifies biomarkers associated with risk of bleeding and VTE.

Challenges in the diagnosis of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura.

INTRODUCTION: Immune-mediated TTP (iTTP) is a rare condition without pathognomonic signs and symptoms. For this reason, the diagnosis of iTTP may be delayed or even missed, with potentially catastrophic consequences. AREAS COVERED: The authors performed an extensive literature review on the diagnosis of iTTP and its challenges combined with their own experience in a referral center for patients with iTTP. EXPERT OPINION: Although a definitive diagnosis of iTTP depends on the ADAMTS13 activity result, timely testing is rarely available at many centers to which patients present. If less complex tests were to become available, they would decrease the chances of late and/or missed diagnoses of iTTP throughout the world. While clinical scores to estimate the likelihood of iTTP exist, they are not well known, and can be misleading if used in the wrong context. Furthermore, the three scoring systems (PLASMIC, Bentley, and French) only moderately correlate with each other, which further complicates the landscape. The existence of these scores and how they should be used in practice is but one opportunity that can be seized through more robust programs to educate nonspecialist clinicians on how to recognize and treat patients with iTTP.

Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Events in Blood or Marrow Transplantation Recipients.

Background: The long-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and clinical models that predict this risk remain understudied in blood or marrow transplantation (BMT) recipients. Objectives: This study sought to examine the risk of CHD after BMT and identify the associated risk factors. Methods: Participants included patients transplanted between 1974 and 2014 at City of Hope, University of Minnesota, or University of Alabama at Birmingham and those who survived ≥2 years after BMT. Multivariable logistic regression models assessed CHD risk in BMT survivors compared with a sibling cohort. A self-reported questionnaire and medical records provided information regarding sociodemographics, comorbidities, and therapeutic exposures, which were used to develop a CHD risk prediction nomogram. Results: Overall, 6,677 BMT recipients participated; the mean age at BMT was 43.9 ± 17.7 years, 58.3% were male, and 73.3% were non-Hispanic Whites. The median length of follow-up was 6.9 years (range: 2-46.2 years) from BMT. CHD was reported in 249 participants, with a 20-year cumulative incidence of 5.45% ± 0.39%. BMT survivors had a 1.6-fold greater odds of CHD compared with a sibling cohort (95% CI: 1.09-2.40). A nomogram was then developed to predict the risk of CHD at 10 and 20 years after BMT including age at BMT (HR: 1.06/y; 95% CI: 1.04-1.08), male sex (HR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.15-3.11), a history of smoking (HR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.01-2.58), diabetes (HR: 2.45; 95% CI: 1.23-4.89), hypertension (HR: 2.02; 95% CI: 1.15-3.54), arrhythmia (HR: 1.90; 95% CI: 0.89-4.06), and pre-BMT chest radiation (yes vs no: HR: 2.83; 95% CI: 1.20-6.67; unknown vs no: HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.34-2.28). The C-statistic was 0.77 in the test set (95% CI: 0.70-0.83). Conclusions: This study identified BMT recipients at high risk for CHD, informing targeted screening for early detection and aggressive control of risk factors.

Increased blood reactive oxygen species and hepcidin in obstructive sleep apnea precludes expected erythrocytosis.

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) causes intermittent hypoxia during sleep. Hypoxia predictably initiates an increase in the blood hemoglobin concentration (Hb); yet in our analysis of 527 patients with OSA, >98% did not have an elevated Hb. To understand why patients with OSA do not develop secondary erythrocytosis due to intermittent hypoxia, we first hypothesized that erythrocytosis occurs in these patients, but is masked by a concomitant increase in plasma volume. However, we excluded that explanation by finding that the red cell mass was normal (measured by radionuclide labeling of erythrocytes and carbon monoxide inhalation). We next studied 45 patients with OSA before and after applying continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP). We found accelerated erythropoiesis in these patients (increased erythropoietin and reticulocytosis), but it was offset by neocytolysis (lysis of erythrocytes newly generated in hypoxia upon return to normoxia). Parameters of neocytolysis included increased reactive oxygen species from expanded reticulocytes' mitochondria. The antioxidant catalase was also downregulated in these cells from hypoxia-stimulated microRNA-21. In addition, inflammation-induced hepcidin limited iron availability for erythropoiesis. After CPAP, some of these intermediaries diminished but Hb did not change. We conclude that in OSA, the absence of significant increase in red cell mass is integral to the pathogenesis, and results from hemolysis via neocytolysis combined with inflammation-mediated suppression of erythropoiesis.

Association between peripheral blood cytopenia and cancer mortality: A race-specific risk factor for cancer death.

BACKGROUND: Cytopenia is associated with cancer through mechanisms including clonal hematopoiesis and chronic inflammation. Cytopenia is more prevalent in Black people but its relationship with racial disparities in cancer mortality is unknown. METHODS: Cytopenia was defined in 19,028 Black and White participants recruited between 2003 and 2007 for the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke cohort, based on age-, sex-, and race-adjusted ranges for blood counts. Cancer death was ascertained from Social Security Death and National Death Indexes. Multivariable Cox models estimated the risk of cancer mortality associated with cytopenia, adjusting for demographics (model1), anemia and cancer risk factors (model2), and socioeconomics (model3). Racial differences in the cytopenia-cancer death association were tested by cross-product interaction terms. RESULTS: Cytopenia was identified in 383 (2%) participants, 250 (65%) White, and 113 (35%) Black people. With median follow-up 11.3 years, 1,224 (6.4%) cancer deaths occurred. Cytopenia was associated with increased risk of cancer mortality in model1 (HR = 1.57, 95%CI 1.15-2.24), model2 (HR = 1.67, 95%CI 1.22-2.30), and model3 (HR = 1.59, 95%CI 1.17-2.17). Participants with cytopenia had twofold increased cumulative incidence of cancer death (13% vs. 6.5%, p < 0.01). Race by cytopenia interaction terms showed higher HR for cancer death in Black compared to White participants: 2.01 versus 1.41 (pinteraction  = 0.016, model1), 2.12 versus 1.45 (pinteraction  = 0.009, model2), and 1.82 versus 1.44 (pinteraction  = 0.04, model3). CONCLUSION: In this large, observational biracial prospective study, cytopenia was a risk factor for cancer death, with stronger association in Black than White people. Though race impacted the association of cytopenia with cancer mortality, cytopenia was not a mediator of the racial disparity in cancer mortality.

Pitfalls in Diagnosing Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura in Sickle Cell Disease.

Thrombotic thrombocytopenia purpura is characterised by microangiopathic haemolytic anaemia and red cell fragmentation on the peripheral smear, neurological involvement and thrombocytopenia. Diagnosis in the context of sickle cell disease can be challenging due to the inherent haemolytic state and the multitude of other associated complications of the latter. Specifically, fat embolism syndrome characterised by respiratory failure, neurological impairment and thrombocytopenia can be misdiagnosed this way. Confirmation of a diagnosis of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura requires demonstration of very low levels (<10%) of the metalloproteinase ADAMTS13 which in fat embolism syndrome is normal. Existing scoring systems used to estimate the pre-test probability for thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura cannot be applied in patients with sickle cell disease due to the chronic underlying haemolysis. Here, we analyse the diagnostic approach in published cases of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura affecting patients with sickle-cell disease. The vast majority of cases were characterised by severe respiratory failure before any other manifestation, a feature of fat embolism syndrome but not of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, and all received red cell transfusion prior to receiving therapeutic plasma exchange. Despite the potential overestimation of the pre-test probability using the existing scoring systems, a large number of cases still scored low. There were no cases with documented low ADAMTS13. In the majority this was not tested, while in the 3 cases that ADAMTS13 was tested, levels were normal. Our review suggests that due to many overlapping clinical and laboratory features thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura may be erroneously diagnosed in sickle cell disease instead of other complications such as fat embolism syndrome and confirmation with ADAMTS13 testing is essential.

Race, rituximab, and relapse in TTP.

Immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP) is characterized by recurring episodes of thrombotic microangiopathy, causing ischemic organ impairment. Black patients are overrepresented in iTTP cohorts in the United States, but racial disparities in iTTP outcome and response to therapy have not been studied. Using the United States Thrombotic Microangiopathies Consortium iTTP Registry, we evaluated the impact of race on mortality and relapse-free survival (RFS) in confirmed iTTP in the United States from 1995 to 2020. We separately examined the impact of rituximab therapy and presentation with newly diagnosed (de novo) or relapsed iTTP on RFS by race. A total of 645 participants with 1308 iTTP episodes were available for analysis. Acute iTTP mortality did not differ by race. When all episodes of iTTP were included, Black race was associated with shorter RFS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.60; 95% CI, 1.16-2.21); the addition of rituximab to corticosteroids improved RFS in White (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.18-0.73) but not Black patients (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.71-1.31). In de novo iTTP, rituximab delayed relapse, but Black patients had shorter RFS than White patients, regardless of treatment. In relapsed iTTP, rituximab significantly improved RFS in White but not Black patients. Race affects overall relapse risk and response to rituximab in iTTP. Black patients may require closer monitoring, earlier retreatment, and alternative immunosuppression after rituximab treatment. How race, racism, and social determinants of health contribute to the disparity in relapse risk in iTTP deserves further study.

Venous-thromboembolism and associated health care utilization in elderly patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: Patients with lymphoma have an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). The authors examined the risk of VTE and subsequent health care utilization in elderly patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL). METHODS: A total of 5537 DLBCL patients ≥66 years old enrolled in Medicare from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry and a noncancer control group of Medicare beneficiaries (n = 5537) were identified. Cumulative incidence function to examine the risk of VTE 12 months after DLBCL diagnosis was used. Fine and Gray method was used to examine the risk factors associated with VTE risk in multivariable models. Total number of hospitalizations, outpatient visits, and Medicare spending were compared in DLBCL patients with and without VTE. RESULTS: VTE was diagnosed in 8.3% DLBCL patients and 1.5% controls, yielding an 8.6-fold higher risk of VTE in DLBCL in adjusted analysis (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.62-11.20; P < .001). Multivariable regression analysis showed that precancer VTE history was associated with an increased risk of developing VTE after a DLBCL diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 5.39; 95% CI, 4.39-6.63), and Asian individuals were associated with a lower risk (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.29-1.00). Patients newly diagnosed with VTE after lymphoma had a 1.7-fold higher rate of hospitalization and a 1.2-fold higher rate of outpatient visits compared to those without, resulting in excess Medicare spending of $22,208 in the first year after DLBCL diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Elderly patients with DLBCL have an elevated risk of VTE resulting in excess health care utilization. VTE history before DLBCL was associated with increased risk of post-DLBCL VTE, and Asian individuals were associated with a lower risk of VTE.

From Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time to Antifactor Xa and Back Again.

OBJECTIVES: Monitoring is essential to safe anticoagulation prescribing and requires close collaboration among pathologists, clinicians, and pharmacists. METHODS: We describe our experience in the evolving strategy for laboratory testing of unfractionated heparin (UFH). RESULTS: An intrainstitutional investigation revealed significant discordance between activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) and antifactor Xa (anti-Xa) assays, prompting a transition from the former to the latter in 2013. With the increasing use of oral factor Xa inhibitors (eg, apixaban, rivaroxaban, edoxaban, betrixaban), which interfere with the anti-Xa assay, we adapted our protocol again to incorporate aPTT in patients admitted on oral Xa inhibitors who require transition to UFH. CONCLUSIONS: Our experience demonstrates key challenges in anticoagulation and highlights the importance of clinical pathologists in helping health systems adapt to the changing anticoagulation landscape.

Peripheral Blood Cytopenia and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

Background Individual blood cell count abnormalities have been associated with cardiovascular disease and increased mortality. In this study, we defined a "cytopenia phenotype," reflecting bone marrow hypoproliferation, to determine if peripheral blood cytopenia is associated with increased cardiovascular disease and mortality risk. Methods and Results Study participants were derived from a biracial observational cohort study, REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke), that enrolled 30 239 Black and White participants aged ≥45 years between 2003 and 2007. Median follow up was ≈9 years. The current study included 19 864 participants from REGARDS study (37.9% men, 40% Black participants) who have complete blood count available at study enrollment. We defined a cytopenia phenotype based on age-, sex-, and race-adjusted lowest fifth percentile of blood counts. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models estimated the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI of cytopenia for mortality and incident cardiovascular disease in adjusted models. Mean age of the study participants was 64 years (SD:9.7). The prevalence of cytopenia was 1.9% (n=378). Cytopenia was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.34-2.22) and cardiovascular disease mortality (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.11-2.29). Cytopenia was associated with stroke risk in Black but not White participants (HR, 1.96 versus 0.86; P-interaction for race=0.08) and was not associated with coronary heart disease risk. Conclusions We defined a cytopenia phenotype with clinical implications for mortality and stroke risk in a large biracial and geographically diverse population. Whether generated through somatic mutations or decreased organ function, cytopenia was associated with mortality risk and was a race-specific risk factor for stroke.

Late-occurring venous thromboembolism in allogeneic blood or marrow transplant survivors: a BMTSS-HiGHS2 risk model.

Allogeneic blood or marrow transplant (BMT) recipients are at risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) because of high-intensity therapeutic exposures, comorbidities, and a proinflammatory state due to chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). The long-term risk of VTE in allogeneic BMT survivors remains unstudied. Participants were drawn from the Blood or Marrow Transplant Survivor Study (BMTSS), a retrospective cohort study that included patients who underwent transplantation between 1974 and 2014 and survived ≥2 years after BMT. We analyzed the risk of VTE in 1554 2-year survivors of allogeneic BMT compared with 907 siblings. Using backward variable selection guided by minimizing Akaike information criterion, we created a prediction model for risk of late-occurring VTE. Allogeneic BMT survivors had a 7.3-fold higher risk of VTE compared with siblings (95% CI, 4.69-11.46; P < .0001). After a median follow-up of 11 years, conditional on surviving the first 2 years after BMT, the cumulative incidence of late-occurring VTE was 2.4% at 5 years, 4.9% at 10 years, and 7.1% at 20 years after BMT. The final model for VTE risk at 2 years post-BMT included History of stroke, chronic GVHD, Hypertension, Sex (male vs female) and Stem cell source (peripheral blood stem cells vs other) ("HiGHS2") (corrected C-statistics: 0.73; 95% CI = 0.67-0.79). This model was able to classify patients at high and low VTE risk (10-year cumulative incidence, 9.3% vs 2.4% respectively; P < .0001). The BMTSS HiGHS2 risk model when applied at 2 years post-BMT can be used to inform targeted prevention strategies for patients at high risk for late-occurring VTE.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients on concurrent direct oral anticoagulants and targeted anticancer therapies-TacDOAC registry: Communication from the ISTH SSC Subcommittee on Hemostasis and Malignancy.

BACKGROUND: Cancer patients are increasingly prescribed direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and targeted anticancer therapies, but limited data are available on the outcomes during concurrent use. OBJECTIVES: We conducted an international registry through the Scientific and Standardization Committee of the ISTH to evaluate the characteristics, bleeding, and thrombotic outcomes in patients receiving concurrent DOACs and targeted anticancer therapies. PATIENTS/METHODS: Patients receiving concurrent DOACs for venous thromboembolism (VTE) or atrial fibrillation and selected targeted anticancer therapies were followed for 6 months after the start of concurrent use. Data including patient and cancer characteristics, major bleeding, non-major bleeding events, and venous or arterial thromboses were collected. RESULTS: Two hundred and two patients were included from six institutions in the United States and Israel. The most common malignancies were hematologic (N = 57, 28.2%), followed by breast (N = 50, 24.8%) and lung (N = 44, 21.8%). The most common anticancer therapies were epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) inhibitors (N = 43, 21.3%), followed by Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitors (N = 42, 20.8%) and palbociclib (N = 42, 20.8%). During follow-up, there were 9 major bleeding and 12 non-major bleeding events, corresponding to cumulative incidences of 4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2-8%) and 6% (95% CI: 3-10%), respectively. The cumulative incidence of major bleeding events was highest in BTK inhibitor users (10%). There were 3 VTE and 2 arterial thromboses, corresponding to cumulative incidences of 1.5% (95% CI: 0.4-4.0%) and 1.0% (95% CI: 0.2-3.3%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort receiving concurrent DOACs and targeted anticancer therapies, the incidence of bleeding is higher compared to thrombosis, particularly with BTK inhibitors. Future larger prospective studies are needed.

High incidence of thromboembolism in patients with chronic GVHD: association with severity of GVHD and donor-recipient ABO blood group.

Chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is associated with systemic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction, increasing risk for thromboembolic events (TEE). In 145 adult recipients who developed cGVHD after a matched sibling or umbilical cord blood donor HCT from 2010 to 2018, 32(22%) developed at least 1 TEE event, and 14(10%) developed 2 TEE events. The 5-year cumulative incidence of TEE was 22% (95% CI, 15-29%) with a median time from cGVHD to TEE of 234 days (range, 12-2050). Median time to the development of LE DVT or PE was 107 (range, 12-1925) compared to 450 days (range, 158-1300) for UE DVT. Cumulative incidence of TEE was 9% (95% CI, 0-20%), 17% (95% CI, 9-25%), and 38% (95% CI, 22-55%) in those with mild, moderate, and severe GVHD, respectively. Higher risk for TEE was associated with cGVHD severity (hazard ratio [HR] 4.9, [95% CI, 1.1-22.0]; p = 0.03), non-O-donor to recipient ABO match compared to O-donor to O-recipient match (HR 2.7, [95% CI, 1.0-7.5]; p = 0.053), and personal history of coronary artery disease (HR 2.4, [95% CI, 1.1-5.3]; p = 0.03). TEE was not associated with 2-year non-relapse mortality or 5-year overall survival.