Representing the function and sensitivity of coastal interfaces in Earth system models.

Between the land and ocean, diverse coastal ecosystems transform, store, and transport material. Across these interfaces, the dynamic exchange of energy and matter is driven by hydrological and hydrodynamic processes such as river and groundwater discharge, tides, waves, and storms. These dynamics regulate ecosystem functions and Earth's climate, yet global models lack representation of coastal processes and related feedbacks, impeding their predictions of coastal and global responses to change. Here, we assess existing coastal monitoring networks and regional models, existing challenges in these efforts, and recommend a path towards development of global models that more robustly reflect the coastal interface.

A geospatially resolved wetland vulnerability index: Synthesis of physical drivers.

Assessing wetland vulnerability to chronic and episodic physical drivers is fundamental for establishing restoration priorities. We synthesized multiple data sets from E.B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey, to establish a wetland vulnerability metric that integrates a range of physical processes, anthropogenic impact and physical/biophysical features. The geospatial data are based on aerial imagery, remote sensing, regulatory information, and hydrodynamic modeling; and include elevation, tidal range, unvegetated to vegetated marsh ratio (UVVR), shoreline erosion, potential exposure to contaminants, residence time, marsh condition change, change in salinity, salinity exposure and sediment concentration. First, we delineated the wetland complex into individual marsh units based on surface contours, and then defined a wetland vulnerability index that combined contributions from all parameters. We applied principal component and cluster analyses to explore the interrelations between the data layers, and separate regions that exhibited common characteristics. Our analysis shows that the spatial variation of vulnerability in this domain cannot be explained satisfactorily by a smaller subset of the variables. The most influential factor on the vulnerability index was the combined effect of elevation, tide range, residence time, and UVVR. Tide range and residence time had the highest correlation, and similar bay-wide spatial variation. Some variables (e.g., shoreline erosion) had no significant correlation with the rest of the variables. The aggregated index based on the complete dataset allows us to assess the overall state of a given marsh unit and quickly locate the most vulnerable units in a larger marsh complex. The application of geospatially complete datasets and consideration of chronic and episodic physical drivers represents an advance over traditional point-based methods for wetland assessment.

Applying cumulative effects to strategically advance large-scale ecosystem restoration.

International efforts to restore degraded ecosystems will continue to expand over the coming decades, yet the factors contributing to the effectiveness of long-term restoration across large areas remain largely unexplored. At large scales, outcomes are more complex and synergistic than the additive impacts of individual restoration projects. Here, we propose a cumulative-effects conceptual framework to inform restoration design and implementation and to comprehensively measure ecological outcomes. To evaluate and illustrate this approach, we reviewed long-term restoration in several large coastal and riverine areas across the US: the greater Florida Everglades; Gulf of Mexico coast; lower Columbia River and estuary; Puget Sound; San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta; Missouri River; and northeastern coastal states. Evidence supported eight modes of cumulative effects of interacting restoration projects, which improved outcomes for species and ecosystems at landscape and regional scales. We conclude that cumulative effects, usually measured for ecosystem degradation, are also measurable for ecosystem restoration. The consideration of evidence-based cumulative effects will help managers of large-scale restoration capitalize on positive feedback and reduce countervailing effects.

Dataset of numerical modelling results of wave thrust on salt marsh boundaries with different seagrass coverages in a shallow back-barrier estuary.

This article contains data on the effects of seagrass decline on wave energy along the shoreline of Barnegat Bay (USA) previously evaluated in Donatelli et al., 2019. This study was carried out applying the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) numerical modelling framework to six historical maps of seagrass distribution. A new routine recently implemented in COAWST was used, which explicitly computes the wave thrust acting on salt marsh boundaries. The numerical modelling results are reported in terms of wind-wave heights for different seagrass coverages, wind speeds and directions. From a comparison with a numerical experiment without submerged aquatic vegetation, we show how the computed wave thrust on marsh boundaries can be reduced by seagrass beds.

Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes.

Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling.

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear, because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a "theory of everything" for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

Sediment chemistry and toxicity in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey: Pre- and post-Hurricane Sandy, 2012-13.

Hurricane Sandy made landfall in Barnegat Bay, October, 29, 2012, damaging shorelines and infrastructure. Estuarine sediment chemistry and toxicity were investigated before and after to evaluate potential environmental health impacts and to establish post-event baseline sediment-quality conditions. Trace element concentrations increased throughout Barnegat Bay up to two orders of magnitude, especially north of Barnegat Inlet, consistent with northward redistribution of silt. Loss of organic compounds, clay, and organic carbon is consistent with sediment winnowing and transport through the inlets and sediment transport modeling results. The number of sites exceeding sediment quality guidance levels for trace elements tripled post-Sandy. Sediment toxicity post-Sandy was mostly unaffected relative to pre-Sandy conditions, but at the site with the greatest relative increase for trace elements, survival rate of the test amphipod decreased (indicating degradation). This study would not have been possible without comprehensive baseline data enabling the evaluation of storm-derived changes in sediment quality.

A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes.

Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

Mercury concentrations and loads in a large river system tributary to San Francisco Bay, California, U.S.A.

In order to estimate total mercury (HgT) loads entering San Francisco Bay, U.S.A., via the Sacramento-San Joaquin River system, unfiltered water samples were collected between January 2002 and January 2006 during high flow events and analyzed for HgT. Unfiltered HgT concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 75 ng/L and showed a strong correlation (r2 = 0.8, p < 0.001, n=78) to suspended sediment concentrations (SSC). During infrequent large floods, HgT concentrations relative to SSC were approximately twice as high as observed during smaller floods. This difference indicates the transport of more Hg-contaminated particles during high discharge events. Daily HgT loads in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River at Mallard Island ranged from below the limit of detection to 35 kg. Annual HgT loads varied from 61 +/- 22 kg (n=5) in water year (WY) 2002 to 470 +/- 170 kg (n=25) in WY 2006. The data collected will assist in understanding the long-term recovery of San Francisco Bay from Hg contamination and in implementing the Hg total maximum daily load, the long-term cleanup plan for Hg in the Bay.