COPD classification models and mortality prediction capacity.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to assess the impact of comorbidities on existing COPD prognosis scores. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 543 patients with COPD (FEV1 <80% and FEV1/FVC <70%) were included between January 2003 and January 2004. Patients were stable for at least 6 weeks before inclusion and were followed for 5 years without any intervention by the research team. Comorbidities and causes of death were established from medical reports or information from primary care medical records. The GOLD system and the body mass index, obstruction, dyspnea and exercise (BODE) index were used for COPD classification. Patients were also classified into four clusters depending on the respiratory disease and comorbidities. Cluster analysis was performed by combining multiple correspondence analyses and automatic classification. Receiver operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC) were calculated for each model, and the DeLong test was used to evaluate differences between AUCs. Improvement in prediction ability was analyzed by the DeLong test, category-free net reclassification improvement and the integrated discrimination index. RESULTS: Among the 543 patients enrolled, 521 (96%) were male, with a mean age of 68 years, mean body mass index 28.3 and mean FEV1% 55%. A total of 167 patients died during the study follow-up. Comorbidities were prevalent in our cohort, with a mean Charlson index of 2.4. The most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension, diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases. On comparing the BODE index, GOLDABCD, GOLD2017 and cluster analysis for predicting mortality, cluster system was found to be superior compared with GOLD2017 (0.654 vs 0.722, P=0.006), without significant differences between other classification models. When cardiovascular comorbidities and chronic renal failure were added to the existing scores, their prognostic capacity was statistically superior (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Comorbidities should be taken into account in COPD management scores due to their prevalence and impact on mortality.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Subtypes. Transitions over Time.

BACKGROUND: Although subtypes of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are recognized, it is unknown what happens to these subtypes over time. Our objectives were to assess the stability of cluster-based subtypes in patients with stable disease and explore changes in clusters over 1 year. METHODS: Multiple correspondence and cluster analysis were used to evaluate data collected from 543 stable patients included consecutively from 5 respiratory outpatient clinics. RESULTS: Four subtypes were identified. Three of them, A, B, and C, had marked respiratory profiles with a continuum in severity of several variables, while the fourth, subtype D, had a more systemic profile with intermediate respiratory disease severity. Subtype A was associated with less dyspnea, better health-related quality of life and lower Charlson comorbidity scores, and subtype C with the most severe dyspnea, and poorer pulmonary function and quality of life, while subtype B was between subtypes A and C. Subtype D had higher rates of hospitalization the previous year, and comorbidities. After 1 year, all clusters remained stable. Generally, patients continued in the same subtype but 28% migrated to another cluster. Together with movement across clusters, patients showed changes in certain characteristics (especially exercise capacity, some variables of pulmonary function and physical activity) and changes in outcomes (quality of life, hospitalization and mortality) depending on the new cluster they belonged to. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease clusters remained stable over 1 year. Most patients stayed in their initial subtype cluster, but some moved to another subtype and accordingly had different outcomes.