ABSTRACT
Coastal economies and ecosystems have historically depended on oyster reefs, but this habitat has declined globally by 85% because of anthropogenic activities. In a Florida estuary, we investigated the cause of newly reported losses of oysters. We found that the oyster reefs have deteriorated from north to south and that this deterioration was positively correlated with the abundance of carnivorous conchs and water salinity. In experiments across these gradients, oysters survived regardless of salinity if conchs were excluded. After determining that conchs were the proximal cause of oyster loss, we tested whether elevated water salinity was linked to conch abundance either by increasing conch growth and survivorship or by decreasing the abundance of a predator of conchs. In field experiments across a salinity gradient, we failed to detect spatial variation in predation on conchs or in conch growth and survivorship. A laboratory experiment, however, demonstrated the role of salinity by showing that conch larvae failed to survive at low salinities. Because this estuary's salinity increased in 2006 in response to reduced inputs of freshwater, we concluded that the ultimate cause of oyster decline was an increase in salinity. According to records from 2002 to 2012, oyster harvests have remained steady in the northernmost estuaries of this ecoregion (characterized by high reef biomass, low salinity, and low conch abundance) but have declined in the southernmost estuaries (characterized by lower reef biomass, increases in salinity, and increases in conch abundance). Oyster conservation in this ecoregion, which is probably one of the few that still support viable oyster populations, may be undermined by drought-induced increases in salinity causing an increased abundance of carnivorous conchs.
