Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a sustainable obesity prevention programme for preschool children delivered at scale 'HENRY' (Health, Exercise, Nutrition for the Really Young): protocol for the HENRY III cluster randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: One-fifth of children start school already overweight or living with obesity, with rates disproportionately impacting those living in the most deprived areas. Social, environmental and biological factors contribute to excess weight gain and programmes delivered in early years settings aim to support families to navigate these in order to prevent obesity. One of these programmes (Health, Exercise and Nutrition for the Really Young, HENRY) has been delivered in UK community venues (hereon named 'centres') in high deprivation areas since 2008 and aims to help families to provide a healthy start for their preschool children. We aim to establish the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HENRY, including its potential role from a wider systems perspective. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a multicentre, open-labelled, two-group, prospective, cluster randomised controlled trial, with cost-effectiveness analysis, systems-based process evaluation and internal pilot. Primary analysis will compare body mass index (BMI) z-score at 12 months in children (n=984) whose parents have attended HENRY to those who have not attended. Secondary outcomes include parent and staff BMI and waist circumference, parenting efficacy, feeding, eating habits, quality of life, resource use and medium term (3 years) BMI z-scores (child and siblings). 82 centres in ~14 local authority areas will be randomised (1:1) to receive HENRY or continue with standard practice. Intention-to-treat analysis will compare outcomes using mixed effects linear regression. Economic evaluation will estimate a within-trial calculation of cost-per unit change in BMI z-score and longer-term trajectories to determine lifelong cost savings (long-term outcomes). A systems process evaluation will explore whether (and how) implementation of HENRY impacts (and is impacted by) the early years obesity system. An established parent advisory group will support delivery and dissemination. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been granted by the University of York, Health Sciences' Research Governance Committee (HSRGC/2022/537/E). Dissemination includes policy reports, community resources, social media and academic outputs. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN16529380.

Meta-evaluation of a whole systems programme, ActEarly: A study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Living in an area with high levels of child poverty predisposes children to poorer mental and physical health. ActEarly is a 5-year research programme that comprises a large number of interventions (>20) with citizen science and co-production embedded. It aims to improve the health and well-being of children and families living in two areas of the UK with high levels of deprivation; Bradford in West Yorkshire, and the London Borough of Tower Hamlets. This protocol outlines the meta-evaluation (an evaluation of evaluations) of the ActEarly programme from a systems perspective, where individual interventions are viewed as events in the wider policy system across the two geographical areas. It includes investigating the programme's impact on early life health and well-being outcomes, interdisciplinary prevention research collaboration and capacity building, and local and national decision making. METHODS: The ActEarly meta-evaluation will follow and adapt the five iterative stages of the 'Evaluation of Programmes in Complex Adaptive Systems' (ENCOMPASS) framework for evaluation of public health programmes in complex adaptive systems. Theory-based and mixed-methods approaches will be used to investigate the fidelity of the ActEarly research programme, and whether, why and how ActEarly contributes to changes in the policy system, and whether alternative explanations can be ruled out. Ripple effects and systems mapping will be used to explore the relationships between interventions and their outcomes, and the degree to which the ActEarly programme encouraged interdisciplinary and prevention research collaboration as intended. A computer simulation model ("LifeSim") will also be used to evaluate the scale of the potential long-term benefits of cross-sectoral action to tackle the financial, educational and health disadvantages faced by children in Bradford and Tower Hamlets. Together, these approaches will be used to evaluate ActEarly's dynamic programme outputs at different system levels and measure the programme's system changes on early life health and well-being. DISCUSSION: This meta-evaluation protocol presents our plans for using and adapting the ENCOMPASS framework to evaluate the system-wide impact of the early life health and well-being programme, ActEarly. Due to the collaborative and non-linear nature of the work, we reserve the option to change and query some of our evaluation choices based on the feedback we receive from stakeholders to ensure that our evaluation remains relevant and fit for purpose.

Development of Public Health Core Outcome Sets for Systems-Wide Promotion of Early Life Health and Wellbeing.

We aimed to develop a core outcome set (COS) for systems-wide public health interventions seeking to promote early life health and wellbeing. Research was embedded within the existing systems-based intervention research programme 'ActEarly', located in two different areas with high rates of child poverty, Bradford (West Yorkshire) and the Borough of Tower Hamlets (London). 168 potential outcomes were derived from five local government outcome frameworks, a community-led survey and an ActEarly consortium workshop. Two rounds of a Delphi study (Round 1: 37 participants; Round 2: 56 participants) reduced the number of outcomes to 64. 199 members of the community then took part in consultations across ActEarly sites, resulting in a final COS for systems-based public health interventions of 40 outcomes. These were grouped into the domains of: Development & education (N = 6); Physical health & health behaviors (N = 6); Mental health (N = 5); Social environment (N = 4); Physical environment (N = 7); and Poverty & inequality (N = 7). This process has led to a COS with outcomes prioritized from the perspectives of local communities. It provides the means to increase standardization and guide the selection of outcome measures for systems-based evaluation of public health programmes and supports evaluation of individual interventions within system change approaches.

ActEarly: a City Collaboratory approach to early promotion of good health and wellbeing.

Economic, physical, built, cultural, learning, social and service environments have a profound effect on lifelong health. However, policy thinking about health research is dominated by the 'biomedical model' which promotes medicalisation and an emphasis on diagnosis and treatment at the expense of prevention. Prevention research has tended to focus on 'downstream' interventions that rely on individual behaviour change, frequently increasing inequalities. Preventive strategies often focus on isolated leverage points and are scattered across different settings. This paper describes a major new prevention research programme that aims to create City Collaboratory testbeds to support the identification, implementation and evaluation of upstream interventions within a whole system city setting. Prevention of physical and mental ill-health will come from the cumulative effect of multiple system-wide interventions. Rather than scatter these interventions across many settings and evaluate single outcomes, we will test their collective impact across multiple outcomes with the goal of achieving a tipping point for better health. Our focus is on early life (ActEarly) in recognition of childhood and adolescence being such critical periods for influencing lifelong health and wellbeing.

Total systemic failure?

While the world argues about whether climate change is real, what if all systems are failing? This paper seeks to ignite further discussion concerning human impact on all aspects of our environment as we move further into the Anthropocene, not only in terms of the pressure we produce, but also how our activity changes the nature of the relationships between Earth's systems. The paper suggests that we currently lack the tools and analytical capacity to understand the significance of these changes and therefore we cannot answer the question, "are all systems failing?". We discuss how complexity theory, complex networks, and Artificial Intelligence, could contribute part of a solution.

The expression of emotions in 20th century books.

We report here trends in the usage of "mood" words, that is, words carrying emotional content, in 20th century English language books, using the data set provided by Google that includes word frequencies in roughly 4% of all books published up to the year 2008. We find evidence for distinct historical periods of positive and negative moods, underlain by a general decrease in the use of emotion-related words through time. Finally, we show that, in books, American English has become decidedly more "emotional" than British English in the last half-century, as a part of a more general increase of the stylistic divergence between the two variants of English language.

Word diffusion and climate science.

As public and political debates often demonstrate, a substantial disjoint can exist between the findings of science and the impact it has on the public. Using climate-change science as a case example, we reconsider the role of scientists in the information-dissemination process, our hypothesis being that important keywords used in climate science follow "boom and bust" fashion cycles in public usage. Representing this public usage through extraordinary new data on word frequencies in books published up to the year 2008, we show that a classic two-parameter social-diffusion model closely fits the comings and goings of many keywords over generational or longer time scales. We suggest that the fashions of word usage contributes an empirical, possibly regular, correlate to the impact of climate science on society.

Computer simulation: the imaginary friend of auxin transport biology.

Regulated transport of the plant hormone auxin is central to many aspects of plant development. Directional transport, mediated by membrane transporters, produces patterns of auxin distribution in tissues that trigger developmental processes, such as vascular patterning or leaf formation. Experimentation has produced many, largely qualitative, data providing strong evidence for multiple feedback systems between auxin and its transport. However, the exact mechanisms concerned remain elusive and the experiments required to evaluate alternative hypotheses are challenging. Because of this, computational modelling now plays an important role in auxin transport research. Here we review some current approaches and underlying assumptions of computational auxin transport models. We focus on self-organising models for polar auxin transport and on recent attempts to unify conflicting mechanistic explanations. In addition, we discuss in general how these computer simulations are proving to be increasingly effective in hypothesis generation and testing, and how simulation can be used to direct future experiments.Editor's suggested further reading in BioEssays Local auxin production: a small contribution to a big field Abstract.