Rapid rise in the incidence of type 2 diabetes from 1987 to 1996: results from the San Antonio Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes has increased in the early part of the 20th century, particularly in developing countries. There is now evidence that the prevalence also continues to increase in developed countries, including the United States. However, it is unknown whether this increase is due to a rise in the incidence of diabetes or to decreasing diabetic mortality or both. METHODS: Participants in the San Antonio Heart Study, who were nondiabetic at baseline and who returned for a 7- to 8-year follow-up examination, were examined for secular trends in the incidence of type 2 diabetes. Risk factors for diabetes, such as obesity, were also examined. Patients were enrolled in the San Antonio Heart Study from 1979 to 1988 and 7- to 8-year incidence of diabetes was determined from 1987 to 1996. RESULTS: A significant secular trend in the 7- to 8-year incidence of type 2 diabetes was observed in Mexican Americans (5.7% for participants enrolled in 1979 to 15.7% for participants enrolled in 1988). In non-Hispanic whites, the incidence increased from 2.6% for participants enrolled in 1980 to 9.4% for participants enrolled in 1988 (P = .07) . After adjusting for age and sex, the secular trend remained significant in Mexican Americans and borderline significant in non-Hispanic whites. This indicates that between 1987 and 1996 the 7- to 8-year incidence of type 2 diabetes approximately tripled in both ethnic groups. The overall secular trend also remained significant after adjusting for additional risk factors for diabetes, such as obesity. A rising secular trend in obesity was also observed. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a significant increasing secular trend in the incidence of type 2 diabetes in Mexican Americans and a borderline significant trend in non-Hispanic whites participating in the San Antonio Heart Study. Unlike other cardiovascular risk factors such as lipid levels, cigarette smoking, and blood pressure, which are either declining or under progressively better medical management and control, and unlike cardiovascular mortality, which is also declining, obesity and type 2 diabetes are exhibiting increasing trends. Thus, obesity and diabetes could easily become the preeminent US public health problem.

Continuing medical education versus clinic-based STD and HIV education interventions for primary care service providers: replication and extension.

An evaluation of a 2-day sexually transmitted disease (STD) and HIV and AIDS curriculum for primary care providers is presented which compares large scale continuing medical education (CME) conferences with smaller clinic workshop (CW) models with regard to short-term (2-month) and long-term (10-month) program effects on STD and HIV knowledge, attitudes toward risk assessment, and frequency of both STD diagnosis and STD and HIV risk counseling. Data from interventions held in San Antonio, Texas (328 CME; 95 CW) replicate and extend earlier findings from a preliminary intervention, indicating nonsignificant CME-CW differences and dramatic and long-lasting gains from baseline among those with lower knowledge and experience levels preintervention. Similar program effect magnitudes were found for attitude and practice dimensions at 2 months postintervention, with the strongest consistent short and long-term program effects observed for STD and HIV knowledge among service providers.

Reversion from type 2 diabetes to nondiabetic status. Influence of the 1997 American Diabetes Association criteria.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence and the rate of reversion of type 2 diabetes to a nondiabetic status in the 7- to 8-year follow-up of the San Antonio Heart Study, and to determine the influence of the recent 1997 American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria for diabetes on these rates. Individuals who revert have been problematic for those developing criteria for the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes. Few studies have addressed this issue using 1979 National Diabetes Data Group/1980 World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied 3,682 Mexican-American and non-Hispanic white men and nonpregnant women who completed both the baseline and follow-up examination of the San Antonio Heart Study. Incidence and reversion rates were calculated using both the 1980 WHO and the 1997 ADA criteria. Risk factors for reversion were identified, and the best fitting model using multiple logistic regression was determined using both the 1980 WHO and the 1997 ADA criteria. RESULTS: Using the 1997 ADA criteria, the age-adjusted incidences of type 2 diabetes for Mexican-American men and women were 10.8 and 12.2%, respectively. For non-Hispanic white men and women, the age-adjusted incidence rates were 5.5 and 5.1%, respectively. Similar age-adjusted incidences were recorded using the 1980 WHO criteria. The reversion rate for individuals with type 2 diabetes was 11.5% using the 1980 WHO criteria and 12.5% using the 1997 ADA criteria. These rates were not significantly different. Numerous risk factors for reversion were identified. The best fitting model, after controlling for age, sex, and ethnicity, included baseline 2-h glucose level, baseline HDL cholesterol, and previous diagnosis of diabetes. The models were the same for both the 1980 WHO and the 1997 ADA criteria. CONCLUSIONS: There was no significant difference in the incidence or the reversion rates for diabetic subjects using either 1980 WHO or 1997 ADA criteria. In addition, the risk factors for reversion were very similar using either set of criteria. The revision of the ADA criteria did not have a significant influence on reversion in this study.

Effects of diabetes and level of glycemia on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. The San Antonio Heart Study.

OBJECTIVE: Although the level of hyperglycemia is clearly a risk factor for microvascular complications in diabetic patients, its role in macrovascular complications remains controversial. We followed 4,875 subjects (65% Mexican-American) for 7-8 years to investigate the effects of diabetes and hyperglycemia on all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. These end points were also analyzed according to quartiles of baseline fasting plasma glucose among diabetic participants. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the relative risks (RRs) for all-cause and CVD mortality. RESULTS: Diabetes was significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality (RR [95% CI] = 2.1 [1.3-3.5] in men; 3.2 [1.9-5.4] in women) and increased CVD mortality (3.2 [1.4-7.1] in men; 8.5 [2.8-25.2] in women). Among diabetic subjects, those in quartile 4 had a 4.2-fold greater risk of all-cause mortality (P < 0.001) and a 4.7-fold greater risk of CVD mortality (P = 0.01) than those in quartiles 1 and 2 combined. After further adjustment for other potential risk factors, subjects in quartile 4 had a 4.9-fold greater risk of all-cause mortality and a 4.9-fold greater risk of CVD mortality than those in quartiles 1 and 2. In addition, hypertension, current smoking, and cholesterol > 6.2 mmol/l were significant predictors of CVD mortality using Cox models. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that diabetes is a predictor of both all-cause and CVD mortality in the general population and that both hyperglycemia and common CVD risk factors are important predictors of all-cause and CVD mortality in diabetic subjects.

Waist circumference as the best predictor of noninsulin dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) compared to body mass index, waist/hip ratio and other anthropometric measurements in Mexican Americans--a 7-year prospective study.

Although a number of obesity-related variables are recognized risk factors for NIDDM, few studies have addressed which one is the best predictor. A cohort of 721 Mexican Americans aged 25-64 years who were free of NIDDM at baseline were followed for an average of 7.2 years; 105 new cases of NIDDM were diagnosed. Body weight, body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumferences, waist/hip ratio (WHR), triceps and subscapular skinfolds were all positively predictive of NIDDM independent of age and sex. There were modest to strong correlations between these anthropometric variables, however, waist circumference was the strongest predictor of NIDDM. The predictive power of a single measurement of waist circumference was at least equal to that of WHR and BMI combined. The risk of NIDDM for those in the highest quartile of waist circumference was 11 times greater than for those in the lowest quartile (95% confidence interval: 4.2-28.8). The waist-NIDDM relation was stronger in subjects with BMI < or = 27 kg/m2 (OR: 6.0 for a 1 SD difference) than in subjects with BMI > 27 kg/m2 (OR: 1.7 for a 1 SD difference). In multivariate analysis, waist circumference was the only significant predictor of NIDDM in models that included other anthropometric variables either separately or simultaneously. WHR and BMI were independent predictors of NIDDM after adjustment for each other, however, their predictive abilities disappeared after adjustment for waist circumference. The data indicate that waist is the best obesity-related predictor of NIDDM. This finding suggests that the distribution of body fat, especially abdominal localization, is a more important determinant than the total amount of body fat of the development of NIDDM in Mexican Americans.

Decreased insulin action and insulin secretion predict the development of impaired glucose tolerance.

The relative importance of insulin resistance and abnormal insulin secretion as risk factors for the development of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) is controversial. Few prospective data are available on metabolic precursors of IGT. We examined the relation of fasting serum insulin level (as a marker of insulin resistance) and change in insulin/glucose ratio (delta I30/ delta G30) over the first 30 min after glucose ingestion (as a marker of insulin secretion) as predictors of the 7-year development of IGT in 839 Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites with normal glucose tolerance at baseline from the San Antonio Heart Study. IGT eventually developed in 148 subjects. When modelled separately, fasting serum insulin (odds ratio (OR) = 2.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.58, 4.28, p < 0.005), but not delta I30/ delta G30 (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.50, 1.27, p = 0.339) predicted the development of IGT. However, when both variables were included in the same logistic regression model, fasting serum insulin (OR = 3.50, 95% CI = 1.97, 6.21, p < 0.001) and low delta I30/ delta G30 (OR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.28, 0.82, p = 0.008) both predicted IGT. These results were basically unchanged after further adjustment for obesity, body fat distribution and fasting plasma glucose level. We conclude that both decreased insulin secretion (as assessed by low delta I30/ delta G30) and increased insulin resistance (as assessed by fasting serum insulin) predict the development of IGT and are thus early precursors of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus; further studies of insulin secretion should take into account the level of basal insulin resistance.

Metabolic precursors of hypertension. The San Antonio Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: The relation of possible metabolic precursors (especially insulin resistance) to hypertension has been controversial. In addition, these associations may differ by level of obesity or ethnicity. METHODS: We followed up 1039 initially nondiabetic, nonhypertensive subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study for 7 years. RESULTS: Hypertension developed in 93 subjects. Age, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and fasting insulin and triglyceride levels predicted the development of hypertension in univariate analyses. After adjustment for age, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, gender, ethnicity, and fasting glucose levels, higher levels of triglyceride and fasting insulin predicted the development of hypertension. Body mass index and fasting insulin and triglyceride levels predicted the development of hypertension in Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites. In addition, fasting insulin levels predicted the development of hypertension in lean and obese subjects. Increased insulin secretion (as judged by the 30-minute insulin increment) on an oral glucose tolerance test also predicted the development of hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: A cluster of atherogenic changes may precede the development of hypertension, and increased fasting insulin concentration predicts hypertension in important subgroups of subjects.

Decreased insulin secretion and increased insulin resistance are independently related to the 7-year risk of NIDDM in Mexican-Americans.

The relative importance of insulin resistance and abnormal insulin secretion as risk factors for the development of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) is still controversial. Few data are available on insulin secretion as a risk factor for the development of NIDDM, especially in subjects with normal glucose tolerance. We examined the relation of fasting insulin (as a marker of insulin resistance) and the ratio of change in insulin to change in glucose during the first 30 min after glucose ingestion (delta I30/delta G30) (as a marker of insulin secretion) as predictors of the 7-year development of NIDDM in 714 initially nondiabetic Mexican-Americans. NIDDM developed in 99 subjects. The relative risk of NIDDM increased with higher quartiles of fasting insulin (quartile 1 [low], 1.0; quartile 2, 1.5; quartile 3, 2.0; and quartile 4 [high], 3.7; P < 0.0001) and lower delta I30/delta G30 (quartile 1 [low], 6.9; quartile 2, 1.9; quartile 3, 1.1; quartile 4 [high], 1.0; P < 0.001). Subjects with both increased fasting insulin and decreased delta I30/delta G30 had independent increases in NIDDM incidence (P < 0.001). Further, when we stratified subjects by baseline glucose tolerance, both increased fasting insulin and decreased delta I30/delta G30 significantly predicted NIDDM in subjects with both impaired and normal glucose tolerance at baseline. We conclude that both decreased insulin secretion (as assessed by low delta I30/delta G30) and increased insulin resistance (as assessed by fasting insulin) predict the development of NIDDM in Mexican-Americans, a group previously characterized as having hyperinsulinemia and insulin resistance.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Prevalence of diabetes in Mexican Americans. Relationship to percent of gene pool derived from native American sources.

We have estimated the prevalence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) in Mexican Americans and Anglos in three San Antonio neighborhoods. The age-adjusted NIDDM rates (both sexes pooled) for Mexican Americans were 14.5%, 10%, and 5% for residents of a low-income barrio, a middle-income transitional neighborhood, and a high-income suburb, respectively. In Mexican American women, though not in men, obesity also declined from barrio to suburbs. We have previously shown, however, that, although obesity is an important cause of NIDDM in Mexican Americans, there is a two- to fourfold excess in the rate of NIDDM in this ethnic group over and above that which can be attributed to obesity. We therefore speculated that genetic factors might also contribute to excess NIDDM in this ethnic group. The percent native American admixture of Mexican Americans as estimated from skin color measurements was 46% in the barrio, 27% in the transitional neighborhood, and 18% in the suburbs. The NIDDM rates in Mexican Americans thus paralleled the proportion of native American genes. Furthermore, the San Antonio Mexican American rates were intermediate between the NIDDM rates of "full-blooded" Pima Indians (49.9%), who presumably have close to 100% native American genes, and the San Antonio Anglo population (3.0%) and the predominantly Anglo HANES II population (3.1%), both of which presumably have few if any native American genes. The association of genetic admixture with NIDDM rates suggests that much of the epidemic of NIDDM in Mexican Americans is confined to that part of the population with a substantial native American heritage.

Ethnic differences in health knowledge and behaviors related to the prevention and treatment of coronary heart disease. The San Antonio Heart Study.

From a public health perspective, Mexican Americans are widely recognized as an understudied population. Available evidence suggests that Mexican Americans shared equally with non-Hispanic Caucasians (Anglo Americans or "Anglos") in the national decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality during 1970-1976. This finding is somewhat unexpected in view of Mexican Americans' relatively lower socioeconomic status, and it suggests that studying this ethnic group may be strategic in understanding which factors have operated to produce the decline in general. Data obtained from a random sample of Mexican Americans and Anglos residing in three socioeconomically and culturally distinct neighborhoods in San Antonio, Texas, indicated that Anglos were significantly more informed than Mexican Americans about CHD prevention and generally reported engaging in more behaviors specifically aimed toward prevention than did Mexican Americans. Levels of knowledge were not particularly high in either ethnic group; moreover, reported behavior lagged considerably behind knowledge. While Mexican Americans were significantly less likely than Anglos to volunteer knowledge about major heart attack symptoms, there were negligible ethnic differences in awareness of the need for prompt utilization of medical treatment resources when a heart attack actually occurs. Awareness of the need for prompt action was notably high among both ethnic groups. Although limitations in the nature and scope of the data dictate that these findings should be interpreted with caution, the results tend to argue in the direction that prompt access to medical treatment when coronary emergencies occur may have made a relatively greater contribution to the CHD mortality decline in both Mexican Americans and Anglos than did changes in life-style. Much additional data are needed, however, before a definitive explanation of the decline will be possible.

Social class, admixture, and skin color variation in Mexican-Americans and Anglo-Americans living in San Antonio, Texas.

Social class may act in different ways as a barrier to gene flow in urban populations, depending on ethnicity. We test the hypothesis that biological variation is affected by social class subdivision using skin reflectance data collected for 393 Anglo-American and 930 Mexican-American adults in the major urban population of San Antonio, Texas. Two socioeconomic groups were sampled for the Anglo-American population: a middle-income transitional group and a high-income suburban group. In addition, we sampled a third socioeconomic group for Mexican-Americans: a low income barrio. Sex and age effects on skin color are minimal. Social class has no effect on skin color variation for Anglo-Americans, whereas there is a highly significant effect on social class subdivision for Mexican-Americans. Admixture estimates were derived from skin reflectance data and show that the proportion of native American ancestry decreases as social class increases.

Does obesity explain excess prevalence of diabetes among Mexican Americans? Results of the San Antonio Heart Study.

Obesity and Type 2 (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus are common in the Mexican American population. It is not clear whether this is merely a specific instance of the more general phenomenon of excess Type 2 diabetes and obesity among poor people, or whether Mexican Americans have a discrete genetic susceptibility to Type 2 diabetes. The latter consideration arises because Mexican Americans are of mixed native American and European ancestry and native Americans may have a genetic predisposition to Type 2 diabetes which Mexican Americans could share. We studied 936 Mexican Americans and 398 Anglo-Americans randomly selected from three socially and culturally distinct neighborhoods in San Antonio, Texas. Three categories of obesity--lean, average, and obese--were defined using the Anglo-American distribution of the sum of the triceps and subscapular skinfold. Mexican Americans were two to four times as likely to fall into the obese category as Anglo-Americans, but within categories, the two ethnic groups were closely matched in terms of sum of skinfolds. The prevalence of Type 2 diabetes, however, was significantly greater in Mexican Americans than in Anglo-Americans even when the comparisons were made within the three obesity categories. The summary prevalence ratio, controlling for obesity, was 2.54 for men (p = 0.004) and 1.70 for women (p = 0.036). Thus, lean Mexican Americans are still at greater risk of Type 2 diabetes than equally lean Anglo-Americans. Conversely, although Type 2 diabetes prevalence increases as expected with increasing obesity in both ethnic groups, obese Anglo-Americans are still relatively protected compared with equally obese Mexican Americans. Plasma glucose was significantly higher in Mexican Americans than in Anglo-Americans even after controlling for obesity. These results indicate that, although obesity contributes to Type 2 diabetes in Mexican Americans, it does not by itself explain the entire excess prevalence rate.

Knowledge, attitudes, and behavior related to obesity and dieting in Mexican Americans and Anglos: the San Antonio Heart Study.

An epidemiologic study was carried out on Mexican Americans and Anglos residing in two socioeconomically and culturally distinct target areas in San Antonio: a middle income, ethnically integrated area ("transitional") and an upper income, predominantly Anglo area ("suburbs"). Although suburbanite Mexican Americans were leaner than their lower income counterparts, they were still more overweight than suburbanite Anglos. Even after adjusting for these differences in relative weight, however, Mexican Americans were still more likely than Anglos to express the opinion that Americans are too concerned about losing weight. Expressed as a per cent of the maximum score, Mexican American women in the transitional neighborhood scored 77% on this attitude item compared with 60% for Angle women (p less than 0.0005). Comparable ethnic differences on this attitude item were found in men in the transitional neighborhood and in suburbanites of both sexes. In the transitional neighborhood Mexican American women scored lower than Anglo women on a "sugar avoidance" and a "dieting behavior" scale: 23% for Mexican Americans and 45% for Anglos (p less than 0.0005) on the "sugar avoidance" scale. Comparable ethnic differences on this scale were found for men in the transitional neighborhood and for both sexes on the "dieting behavior" scale. Although no ethnic differences on these behavioral scales were found in the more affluent suburbs, these results nevertheless have public health relevance because the majority of Mexican Americans in the United States are of low socioeconomic status.

Cardiovascular risk factors in Mexican Americans in Laredo, Texas. I. Prevalence of overweight and diabetes and distributions of serum lipids.

An epidemiologic survey of cardiovascular risk factors was carried out on a random sample of Mexican Americans living in two low income census tracts in Laredo, Texas. The prevalence of overweight was found to be intermediate between US national estimates and the rates recorded for Pima Indians. Similarly, the prevalence of fasting hyperglycemia was intermediate between the rates observed in a sample or predominantly Caucasian individuals and those observed in Pima Indians. Excess hyperglycemia in the Laredo Mexican American population compared to predominantly Caucasian populations does not appear to be due to a lower level of medical control of diabetes in the former. Rather, it probably reflects a true excess in the prevalence of diabetes. Serum cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations were also higher in Laredo Mexican Americans than in a Caucasian comparison population. Mexican Americans are of mixed European and native American ancestry. Native Americans have high rates of diabetes which could be on a genetic basis. The intermediate rates of hyperglycemia in Mexican Americans could thus have a genetic explanation. On the other hand, sociocultural determinants could be important since these are known to influence obesity which is a major precursor of diabetes.

Cardiovascular risk factors in Mexican Americans in Laredo, Texas. II. Prevalence and control of hypertension.

In recent years there has been a marked improvement in the level of hypertension control nationally in both blacks and whites. Information is still lacking, however, on the level of hypertension control in Mexican Americans. The authors carried out a cardiovascular risk factor survey on a random sample of Mexican Americans living in two low income census tracts in Laredo, Texas. The percentages of hypertensive women who had been previously diagnosed, were under treatment, and were "under control" compared favorably with national figures for blacks and whites. Corresponding percentages for men indicated that their level of diagnosis, treatment and "control" still lagged behind the national figures. The prevalence of hypertension in Laredo Project participants was intermediate between those observed in national studies for blacks and whites. This finding did not clearly emerge when comparisons were based on either blood pressure distributions or prevalence of elevated diastolic pressures. These results indicate that, because of the increasing number of "controlled" hypertensives in the population, comparisons between populations and across time can no longer be based exclusively on blood pressure measurements, but must include cases of "controlled" hypertension.

Breast cancer mortality and diet in the United States.

Internationally, breast cancer mortality is correlated with intestinal lactase sufficiency and dairy product consumption beyond childhood. Within the United States, age-adjusted breast cancer mortality is positively associated with consumption of milk, butter, and total milk fat in regional analyses, and it is associated with milk demand in state-based analyses. Breast cancer mortality is also positively associated with demand for total calories, protein, fat, beef, and table fats (butter and margarine), and it is negatively associated with egg demand. Only the associations with milk and egg demand, however, survive when the Southern states are eliminated from the analyses or when either age of first marriage or income is controlled. The associations with milk and egg demand persist despite multiple controls for other dietary and demographic variables, although the association with milk demand loses statistical significance in some second- and third-order partial correlations. The inverse correlation with egg demand is strong but in the opposite direction from what might have been expected from previous studies. The correlation between milk demand and breast cancer mortality, although weaker, is consistent with results from previous studies, and it suggests a possible special role for dairy products in the etiology of breast cancer.