The mechanics of the baby boom: Unveiling the role of the epidemiologic transition.

Recent research on the baby boom and its causes has shown that common explanations, such as the recuperation of births following the Great Depression or Second World War, are not sufficient to account for the phenomenon. However, that research has stressed the role of increasing nuptiality. In this paper, we argue that the increase in survivorship of children and young people that resulted from the epidemiologic transition accounted for a large portion of the increased number of births during the baby boom. We use a microsimulation model to assess the respective roles of mortality, nuptiality, fertility, and immigration on the size and dynamics of the boom in Quebec, Canada. Results show that decreasing mortality contributed significantly to the baby boom, along with immigration and nuptiality changes, while fertility rates attenuated the phenomenon. These results substantiate the hypothesis that the epidemiologic transition was an important cause of the baby boom.

Socio-economic status and fertility decline: Insights from historical transitions in Europe and North America.

The timings of historical fertility transitions in different regions are well understood by demographers, but much less is known regarding their specific features and causes. In the study reported in this paper, we used longitudinal micro-level data for five local populations in Europe and North America to analyse the relationship between socio-economic status and fertility during the fertility transition. Using comparable analytical models and class schemes for each population, we examined the changing socio-economic differences in marital fertility and related these to common theories on fertility behaviour. Our results do not provide support for the hypothesis of universally high fertility among the upper classes in pre-transitional society, but do support the idea that the upper classes acted as forerunners by reducing their fertility before other groups. Farmers and unskilled workers were the latest to start limiting their fertility. Apart from these similarities, patterns of class differences in fertility varied significantly between populations.

Reconciling cross-sectional and longitudinal measures of fertility, Quebec 1890-1900.

In the absence of vital registration, studies of the onset and early phases of the fertility transition in North America have been seriously hampered and yet the seemingly early timing of the decline, the multi-ethnic nature of the population and continuous flow of immigrants from Europe suggest that North America has much to offer to this debate. This paper is primarily methodological drawing on parallel data for the city of Montreal and surrounding region. By reconciling cross-sectional census measures of fertility using the own-child methods (1901) with those derived from a longitudinal ten-year panel (1891-1901) using family reconstitution, it exposes some of the weaknesses and the potentials of the two methods most often currently used and the advantages of combining methods. Own-children measures of marital fertility are seriously affected by significant local differences in infant survival between rural and urban areas and between cultural groups as well as by residual effects of duration and timing of marriage, while small-scale longitudinal studies in complex environments cannot always render reliable results for all sub-populations not can they necessarily be 'scaled up.' They suggest that national and even regional averages of fertility may conceal large diversity, which in turn raises questions about the existence of any single transition with uniform characteristics and timing, or universal cause. Instead we argue different groups in different environments may actually have been fine-tuning their fertility behaviour to compensate for the differential effects of mortality through adjustments to both marriage and fertility within marriage.