Understanding the impact of numerical solvers on inference for differential equation models.

Most ordinary differential equation (ODE) models used to describe biological or physical systems must be solved approximately using numerical methods. Perniciously, even those solvers that seem sufficiently accurate for the forward problem, i.e. for obtaining an accurate simulation, might not be sufficiently accurate for the inverse problem, i.e. for inferring the model parameters from data. We show that for both fixed step and adaptive step ODE solvers, solving the forward problem with insufficient accuracy can distort likelihood surfaces, which might become jagged, causing inference algorithms to get stuck in local 'phantom' optima. We demonstrate that biases in inference arising from numerical approximation of ODEs are potentially most severe in systems involving low noise and rapid nonlinear dynamics. We reanalyse an ODE change point model previously fit to the COVID-19 outbreak in Germany and show the effect of the step size on simulation and inference results. We then fit a more complicated rainfall run-off model to hydrological data and illustrate the importance of tuning solver tolerances to avoid distorted likelihood surfaces. Our results indicate that, when performing inference for ODE model parameters, adaptive step size solver tolerances must be set cautiously and likelihood surfaces should be inspected for characteristic signs of numerical issues.

Model-driven optimal experimental design for calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Models of the cardiomyocyte action potential have contributed immensely to the understanding of heart function, pathophysiology, and the origin of heart rhythm disturbances. However, action potential models are highly nonlinear, making them difficult to parameterise and limiting to describing 'average cell' dynamics, when cell-specific models would be ideal to uncover inter-cell variability but are too experimentally challenging to be achieved. Here, we focus on automatically designing experimental protocols that allow us to better identify cell-specific maximum conductance values for each major current type. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed an approach that applies optimal experimental designs to patch-clamp experiments, including both voltage-clamp and current-clamp experiments. We assessed the models calibrated to these new optimal designs by comparing them to the models calibrated to some of the commonly used designs in the literature. We showed that optimal designs are not only overall shorter in duration but also able to perform better than many of the existing experiment designs in terms of identifying model parameters and hence model predictive power. CONCLUSIONS: For cardiac cellular electrophysiology, this approach will allow researchers to define their hypothesis of the dynamics of the system and automatically design experimental protocols that will result in theoretically optimal designs.

Importance of modelling hERG binding in predicting drug-induced action potential prolongations for drug safety assessment.

Reduction of the rapid delayed rectifier potassium current (I Kr) via drug binding to the human Ether-à-go-go-Related Gene (hERG) channel is a well recognised mechanism that can contribute to an increased risk of Torsades de Pointes. Mathematical models have been created to replicate the effects of channel blockers, such as reducing the ionic conductance of the channel. Here, we study the impact of including state-dependent drug binding in a mathematical model of hERG when translating hERG inhibition to action potential changes. We show that the difference in action potential predictions when modelling drug binding of hERG using a state-dependent model versus a conductance scaling model depends not only on the properties of the drug and whether the experiment achieves steady state, but also on the experimental protocols. Furthermore, through exploring the model parameter space, we demonstrate that the state-dependent model and the conductance scaling model generally predict different action potential prolongations and are not interchangeable, while at high binding and unbinding rates, the conductance scaling model tends to predict shorter action potential prolongations. Finally, we observe that the difference in simulated action potentials between the models is determined by the binding and unbinding rate, rather than the trapping mechanism. This study demonstrates the importance of modelling drug binding and highlights the need for improved understanding of drug trapping which can have implications for the uses in drug safety assessment.

Models of the cardiac L-type calcium current: A quantitative review.

The L-type calcium current ( I CaL ) plays a critical role in cardiac electrophysiology, and models of I CaL are vital tools to predict arrhythmogenicity of drugs and mutations. Five decades of measuring and modeling I CaL have resulted in several competing theories (encoded in mathematical equations). However, the introduction of new models has not typically been accompanied by a data-driven critical comparison with previous work, so that it is unclear which model is best suited for any particular application. In this review, we describe and compare 73 published mammalian I CaL models and use simulated experiments to show that there is a large variability in their predictions, which is not substantially diminished when grouping by species or other categories. We provide model code for 60 models, list major data sources, and discuss experimental and modeling work that will be required to reduce this huge list of competing theories and ultimately develop a community consensus model of I CaL . This article is categorized under: Cardiovascular Diseases > Computational Models Cardiovascular Diseases > Molecular and Cellular Physiology.

A Parameter Representing Missing Charge Should Be Considered when Calibrating Action Potential Models.

Computational models of the electrical potential across a cell membrane are longstanding and vital tools in electrophysiology research and applications. These models describe how ionic currents, internal fluxes, and buffering interact to determine membrane voltage and form action potentials (APs). Although this relationship is usually expressed as a differential equation, previous studies have shown it can be rewritten in an algebraic form, allowing direct calculation of membrane voltage. Rewriting in this form requires the introduction of a new parameter, called Γ0 in this manuscript, which represents the net concentration of all charges that influence membrane voltage but are not considered in the model. Although several studies have examined the impact of Γ0 on long-term stability and drift in model predictions, there has been little examination of its effects on model predictions, particularly when a model is refit to new data. In this study, we illustrate how Γ0 affects important physiological properties such as action potential duration restitution, and examine the effects of (in)correctly specifying Γ0 during model calibration. We show that, although physiologically plausible, the range of concentrations used in popular models leads to orders of magnitude differences in Γ0, which can lead to very different model predictions. In model calibration, we find that using an incorrect value of Γ0 can lead to biased estimates of the inferred parameters, but that the predictive power of these models can be restored by fitting Γ0 as a separate parameter. These results show the value of making Γ0 explicit in model formulations, as it forces modellers and experimenters to consider the effects of uncertainty and potential discrepancy in initial concentrations upon model predictions.

A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Perspective on the Importance of Parameter Identifiability.

There is an inherent tension in Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) between the need to incorporate mathematical descriptions of complex physiology and drug targets with the necessity of developing robust, predictive and well-constrained models. In addition to this, there is no "gold standard" for model development and assessment in QSP. Moreover, there can be confusion over terminology such as model and parameter identifiability; complex and simple models; virtual populations; and other concepts, which leads to potential miscommunication and misapplication of methodologies within modeling communities, both the QSP community and related disciplines. This perspective article highlights the pros and cons of using simple (often identifiable) vs. complex (more physiologically detailed but often non-identifiable) models, as well as aspects of parameter identifiability, sensitivity and inference methodologies for model development and analysis. The paper distills the central themes of the issue of identifiability and optimal model size and discusses open challenges.

A Voltammetric Perspective of Multi-Electron and Proton Transfer in Protein Redox Chemistry: Insights From Computational Analysis of Escherichia coli HypD Fourier Transformed Alternating Current Voltammetry.

This paper explores the impact of pH on the mechanism of reversible disulfide bond (CysS-SCys) reductive breaking and oxidative formation in Escherichia coli hydrogenase maturation factor HypD, a protein which forms a highly stable adsorbed film on a graphite electrode. To achieve this, low frequency (8.96 Hz) Fourier transformed alternating current voltammetric (FTACV) experimental data was used in combination with modelling approaches based on Butler-Volmer theory with a dual polynomial capacitance model, utilizing an automated two-step fitting process conducted within a Bayesian framework. We previously showed that at pH 6.0 the protein data is best modelled by a redox reaction of two separate, stepwise one-electron, one-proton transfers with slightly "crossed" apparent reduction potentials that incorporate electron and proton transfer terms ( E app 2 0 > E app 1 0 ). Remarkably, rather than collapsing to a concerted two-electron redox reaction at more extreme pH, the same two-stepwise one-electron transfer model with E app 2 0 > E app 1 0 continues to provide the best fit to FTACV data measured across a proton concentration range from pH 4.0 to pH 9.0. A similar, small level of crossover in reversible potentials is also displayed in overall two-electron transitions in other proteins and enzymes, and this provides access to a small but finite amount of the one electron reduced intermediate state.

Using Purely Sinusoidal Voltammetry for Rapid Inference of Surface-Confined Electrochemical Reaction Parameters.

Alternating current (AC) voltammetric techniques are experimentally powerful as they enable Faradaic current to be isolated from non-Faradaic contributions. Finding the best global fit between experimental voltammetric data and simulations based on reaction models requires searching a substantial parameter space at high resolution. In this paper, we estimate parameters from purely sinusoidal voltammetry (PSV) experiments, investigating the redox reactions of a surface-confined ferrocene derivative. The advantage of PSV is that a complete experiment can be simulated relatively rapidly, compared to other AC voltammetric techniques. In one example involving thermodynamic dispersion, a PSV parameter inference effort requiring 7,500,000 simulations was completed in 7 h, whereas the same process for our previously used technique, ramped Fourier transform AC voltammetry (ramped FTACV), would have taken 4 days. Using both synthetic and experimental data with a surface confined diazonium substituted ferrocene derivative, it is shown that the PSV technique can be used to recover the key chemical and physical parameters. By applying techniques from Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the confidence, distribution, and degree of correlation of the recovered parameters was visualized and quantified.

A Monte Carlo method to estimate cell population heterogeneity from cell snapshot data.

Variation is characteristic of all living systems. Laboratory techniques such as flow cytometry can probe individual cells, and, after decades of experimentation, it is clear that even members of genetically identical cell populations can exhibit differences. To understand whether variation is biologically meaningful, it is essential to discern its source. Mathematical models of biological systems are tools that can be used to investigate causes of cell-to-cell variation. From mathematical analysis and simulation of these models, biological hypotheses can be posed and investigated, then parameter inference can determine which of these is compatible with experimental data. Data from laboratory experiments often consist of "snapshots" representing distributions of cellular properties at different points in time, rather than individual cell trajectories. These data are not straightforward to fit using hierarchical Bayesian methods, which require the number of cell population clusters to be chosen a priori. Nor are they amenable to standard nonlinear mixed effect methods, since a single observation per cell is typically too few to estimate parameter variability. Here, we introduce a computational sampling method named "Contour Monte Carlo" (CMC) for estimating mathematical model parameters from snapshot distributions, which is straightforward to implement and does not require that cells be assigned to predefined categories. The CMC algorithm fits to snapshot probability distributions rather than raw data, which means its computational burden does not, like existing approaches, increase with the number of cells observed. Our method is appropriate for underdetermined systems, where there are fewer distinct types of observations than parameters to be determined, and where observed variation is mostly due to variability in cellular processes rather than experimental measurement error. This may be the case for many systems due to continued improvements in resolution of laboratory techniques. In this paper, we apply our method to quantify cellular variation for three biological systems of interest and provide Julia code enabling others to use this method.

Accounting for variability in ion current recordings using a mathematical model of artefacts in voltage-clamp experiments.

Mathematical models of ion channels, which constitute indispensable components of action potential models, are commonly constructed by fitting to whole-cell patch-clamp data. In a previous study, we fitted cell-specific models to hERG1a (Kv11.1) recordings simultaneously measured using an automated high-throughput system, and studied cell-cell variability by inspecting the resulting model parameters. However, the origin of the observed variability was not identified. Here, we study the source of variability by constructing a model that describes not just ion current dynamics, but the entire voltage-clamp experiment. The experimental artefact components of the model include: series resistance, membrane and pipette capacitance, voltage offsets, imperfect compensations made by the amplifier for these phenomena, and leak current. In this model, variability in the observations can be explained by either cell properties, measurement artefacts, or both. Remarkably, by assuming that variability arises exclusively from measurement artefacts, it is possible to explain a larger amount of the observed variability than when assuming cell-specific ion current kinetics. This assumption also leads to a smaller number of model parameters. This result suggests that most of the observed variability in patch-clamp data measured under the same conditions is caused by experimental artefacts, and hence can be compensated for in post-processing by using our model for the patch-clamp experiment. This study has implications for the question of the extent to which cell-cell variability in ion channel kinetics exists, and opens up routes for better correction of artefacts in patch-clamp data. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Chaste: Cancer, Heart and Soft Tissue Environment.

Chaste (Cancer, Heart And Soft Tissue Environment) is an open source simulation package for the numerical solution of mathematical models arising in physiology and biology. To date, Chaste development has been driven primarily by applications that include continuum modelling of cardiac electrophysiology ('Cardiac Chaste'), discrete cell-based modelling of soft tissues ('Cell-based Chaste'), and modelling of ventilation in lungs ('Lung Chaste'). Cardiac Chaste addresses the need for a high-performance, generic, and verified simulation framework for cardiac electrophysiology that is freely available to the scientific community. Cardiac chaste provides a software package capable of realistic heart simulations that is efficient, rigorously tested, and runs on HPC platforms. Cell-based Chaste addresses the need for efficient and verified implementations of cell-based modelling frameworks, providing a set of extensible tools for simulating biological tissues. Computational modelling, along with live imaging techniques, plays an important role in understanding the processes of tissue growth and repair. A wide range of cell-based modelling frameworks have been developed that have each been successfully applied in a range of biological applications. Cell-based Chaste includes implementations of the cellular automaton model, the cellular Potts model, cell-centre models with cell representations as overlapping spheres or Voronoi tessellations, and the vertex model. Lung Chaste addresses the need for a novel, generic and efficient lung modelling software package that is both tested and verified. It aims to couple biophysically-detailed models of airway mechanics with organ-scale ventilation models in a package that is freely available to the scientific community. Chaste is designed to be modular and extensible, providing libraries for common scientific computing infrastructure such as linear algebra operations, finite element meshes, and ordinary and partial differential equation solvers. This infrastructure is used by libraries for specific applications, such as continuum mechanics, cardiac models, and cell-based models. The software engineering techniques used to develop Chaste are intended to ensure code quality, re-usability and reliability. Primary applications of the software include cardiac and respiratory physiology, cancer and developmental biology.

Four Ways to Fit an Ion Channel Model.

Mathematical models of ionic currents are used to study the electrophysiology of the heart, brain, gut, and several other organs. Increasingly, these models are being used predictively in the clinic, for example, to predict the risks and results of genetic mutations, pharmacological treatments, or surgical procedures. These safety-critical applications depend on accurate characterization of the underlying ionic currents. Four different methods can be found in the literature to fit voltage-sensitive ion channel models to whole-cell current measurements: method 1, fitting model equations directly to time-constant, steady-state, and I-V summary curves; method 2, fitting by comparing simulated versions of these summary curves to their experimental counterparts; method 3, fitting to the current traces themselves from a range of protocols; and method 4, fitting to a single current trace from a short and rapidly fluctuating voltage-clamp protocol. We compare these methods using a set of experiments in which hERG1a current was measured in nine Chinese hamster ovary cells. In each cell, the same sequence of fitting protocols was applied, as well as an independent validation protocol. We show that methods 3 and 4 provide the best predictions on the independent validation set and that short, rapidly fluctuating protocols like that used in method 4 can replace much longer conventional protocols without loss of predictive ability. Although data for method 2 are most readily available from the literature, we find it performs poorly compared to methods 3 and 4 both in accuracy of predictions and computational efficiency. Our results demonstrate how novel experimental and computational approaches can improve the quality of model predictions in safety-critical applications.

Rapid Characterization of hERG Channel Kinetics I: Using an Automated High-Throughput System.

Predicting how pharmaceuticals may affect heart rhythm is a crucial step in drug development and requires a deep understanding of a compound's action on ion channels. In vitro hERG channel current recordings are an important step in evaluating the proarrhythmic potential of small molecules and are now routinely performed using automated high-throughput patch-clamp platforms. These machines can execute traditional voltage-clamp protocols aimed at specific gating processes, but the array of protocols needed to fully characterize a current is typically too long to be applied in a single cell. Shorter high-information protocols have recently been introduced that have this capability, but they are not typically compatible with high-throughput platforms. We present a new 15 second protocol to characterize hERG (Kv11.1) kinetics, suitable for both manual and high-throughput systems. We demonstrate its use on the Nanion SyncroPatch 384PE, a 384-well automated patch-clamp platform, by applying it to Chinese hamster ovary cells stably expressing hERG1a. From these recordings, we construct 124 cell-specific variants/parameterizations of a hERG model at 25°C. A further eight independent protocols are run in each cell and are used to validate the model predictions. We then combine the experimental recordings using a hierarchical Bayesian model, which we use to quantify the uncertainty in the model parameters, and their variability from cell-to-cell; we use this model to suggest reasons for the variability. This study demonstrates a robust method to measure and quantify uncertainty and shows that it is possible and practical to use high-throughput systems to capture full hERG channel kinetics quantitatively and rapidly.

Rapid Characterization of hERG Channel Kinetics II: Temperature Dependence.

Ion channel behavior can depend strongly on temperature, with faster kinetics at physiological temperatures leading to considerable changes in currents relative to room temperature. These temperature-dependent changes in voltage-dependent ion channel kinetics (rates of opening, closing, inactivating, and recovery) are commonly represented with Q10 coefficients or an Eyring relationship. In this article, we assess the validity of these representations by characterizing channel kinetics at multiple temperatures. We focus on the human Ether-à-go-go-Related Gene (hERG) channel, which is important in drug safety assessment and commonly screened at room temperature so that results require extrapolation to physiological temperature. In Part I of this study, we established a reliable method for high-throughput characterization of hERG1a (Kv11.1) kinetics, using a 15-second information-rich optimized protocol. In this Part II, we use this protocol to study the temperature dependence of hERG kinetics using Chinese hamster ovary cells overexpressing hERG1a on the Nanion SyncroPatch 384PE, a 384-well automated patch-clamp platform, with temperature control. We characterize the temperature dependence of hERG gating by fitting the parameters of a mathematical model of hERG kinetics to data obtained at five distinct temperatures between 25 and 37°C and validate the models using different protocols. Our models reveal that activation is far more temperature sensitive than inactivation, and we observe that the temperature dependency of the kinetic parameters is not represented well by Q10 coefficients; it broadly follows a generalized, but not the standardly-used, Eyring relationship. We also demonstrate that experimental estimations of Q10 coefficients are protocol dependent. Our results show that a direct fit using our 15-s protocol best represents hERG kinetics at any given temperature and suggests that using the Generalized Eyring theory is preferable if no experimental data are available to derive model parameters at a given temperature.

Representation of Multiple Cellular Phenotypes Within Tissue-Level Simulations of Cardiac Electrophysiology.

Distinct electrophysiological phenotypes are exhibited by biological cells that have differentiated into particular cell types. The usual approach when simulating the cardiac electrophysiology of tissue that includes different cell types is to model the different cell types as occupying spatially distinct yet coupled regions. Instead, we model the electrophysiology of well-mixed cells by using homogenisation to derive an extension to the commonly used monodomain or bidomain equations. These new equations permit spatial variations in the distribution of the different subtypes of cells and will reduce the computational demands of solving the governing equations. We validate the homogenisation computationally, and then use the new model to explain some experimental observations from stem cell-derived cardiomyocyte monolayers.

Reproducible model development in the cardiac electrophysiology Web Lab.

The modelling of the electrophysiology of cardiac cells is one of the most mature areas of systems biology. This extended concentration of research effort brings with it new challenges, foremost among which is that of choosing which of these models is most suitable for addressing a particular scientific question. In a previous paper, we presented our initial work in developing an online resource for the characterisation and comparison of electrophysiological cell models in a wide range of experimental scenarios. In that work, we described how we had developed a novel protocol language that allowed us to separate the details of the mathematical model (the majority of cardiac cell models take the form of ordinary differential equations) from the experimental protocol being simulated. We developed a fully-open online repository (which we termed the Cardiac Electrophysiology Web Lab) which allows users to store and compare the results of applying the same experimental protocol to competing models. In the current paper we describe the most recent and planned extensions of this work, focused on supporting the process of model building from experimental data. We outline the necessary work to develop a machine-readable language to describe the process of inferring parameters from wet lab datasets, and illustrate our approach through a detailed example of fitting a model of the hERG channel using experimental data. We conclude by discussing the future challenges in making further progress in this domain towards our goal of facilitating a fully reproducible approach to the development of cardiac cell models.

Sinusoidal voltage protocols for rapid characterisation of ion channel kinetics.

KEY POINTS: Ion current kinetics are commonly represented by current-voltage relationships, time constant-voltage relationships and subsequently mathematical models fitted to these. These experiments take substantial time, which means they are rarely performed in the same cell. Rather than traditional square-wave voltage clamps, we fitted a model to the current evoked by a novel sum-of-sinusoids voltage clamp that was only 8 s long. Short protocols that can be performed multiple times within a single cell will offer many new opportunities to measure how ion current kinetics are affected by changing conditions. The new model predicts the current under traditional square-wave protocols well, with better predictions of underlying currents than literature models. The current under a novel physiologically relevant series of action potential clamps is predicted extremely well. The short sinusoidal protocols allow a model to be fully fitted to individual cells, allowing us to examine cell-cell variability in current kinetics for the first time. ABSTRACT: Understanding the roles of ion currents is crucial to predict the action of pharmaceuticals and mutations in different scenarios, and thereby to guide clinical interventions in the heart, brain and other electrophysiological systems. Our ability to predict how ion currents contribute to cellular electrophysiology is in turn critically dependent on our characterisation of ion channel kinetics - the voltage-dependent rates of transition between open, closed and inactivated channel states. We present a new method for rapidly exploring and characterising ion channel kinetics, applying it to the hERG potassium channel as an example, with the aim of generating a quantitatively predictive representation of the ion current. We fitted a mathematical model to currents evoked by a novel 8 second sinusoidal voltage clamp in CHO cells overexpressing hERG1a. The model was then used to predict over 5 minutes of recordings in the same cell in response to further protocols: a series of traditional square step voltage clamps, and also a novel voltage clamp comprising a collection of physiologically relevant action potentials. We demonstrate that we can make predictive cell-specific models that outperform the use of averaged data from a number of different cells, and thereby examine which changes in gating are responsible for cell-cell variability in current kinetics. Our technique allows rapid collection of consistent and high quality data, from single cells, and produces more predictive mathematical ion channel models than traditional approaches.

Comparing two sequential Monte Carlo samplers for exact and approximate Bayesian inference on biological models.

Bayesian methods are advantageous for biological modelling studies due to their ability to quantify and characterize posterior variability in model parameters. When Bayesian methods cannot be applied, due either to non-determinism in the model or limitations on system observability, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods can be used to similar effect, despite producing inflated estimates of the true posterior variance. Owing to generally differing application domains, there are few studies comparing Bayesian and ABC methods, and thus there is little understanding of the properties and magnitude of this uncertainty inflation. To address this problem, we present two popular strategies for ABC sampling that we have adapted to perform exact Bayesian inference, and compare them on several model problems. We find that one sampler was impractical for exact inference due to its sensitivity to a key normalizing constant, and additionally highlight sensitivities of both samplers to various algorithmic parameters and model conditions. We conclude with a study of the O'Hara-Rudy cardiac action potential model to quantify the uncertainty amplification resulting from employing ABC using a set of clinically relevant biomarkers. We hope that this work serves to guide the implementation and comparative assessment of Bayesian and ABC sampling techniques in biological models.

Retuning the Catalytic Bias and Overpotential of a [NiFe]-Hydrogenase via a Single Amino Acid Exchange at the Electron Entry/Exit Site.

The redox chemistry of the electron entry/exit site in Escherichia coli hydrogenase-1 is shown to play a vital role in tuning biocatalysis. Inspired by nature, we generate a HyaA-R193L variant to disrupt a proposed Arg-His cation-π interaction in the secondary coordination sphere of the outermost, "distal", iron-sulfur cluster. This rewires the enzyme, enhancing the relative rate of H2 production and the thermodynamic efficiency of H2 oxidation catalysis. On the basis of Fourier transformed alternating current voltammetry measurements, we relate these changes in catalysis to a shift in the distal [Fe4S4]2+/1+ redox potential, a previously experimentally inaccessible parameter. Thus, metalloenzyme chemistry is shown to be tuned by the second coordination sphere of an electron transfer site distant from the catalytic center.