The Impact of the Older Person's Grant Expansion on Hypertension Among Older Men in Rural South Africa: Findings From the HAALSI Cohort.

Background and Objectives: Hypertension is a major modifiable contributor to disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. We exploited an expansion to age eligibility for men in South Africa's noncontributory public pension to assess the impact of pension eligibility on hypertension in a rural, low-income South African setting. Research Design and Methods: Data were from 1 247 men aged ≥60 in the population-representative Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa in 2014/2015. We identified cohorts of men from 0 (controls, aged ≥65 at pension expansion) through 5 years of additional pension eligibility based on their birth year. Using the modified Framingham Heart Study hypertension risk prediction model, and the Wand et al. model modified for the South African population, we estimated the difference in the probabilities of hypertension for men who benefitted from the pension expansion relative to the control. We conducted a negative control analysis among older women, who were not eligible for pension expansion, to assess the robustness of our findings. Results: Older men with 5 additional years of pension eligibility had a 6.9-8.1 percentage point greater probability of hypertension than expected without the pension expansion eligibility. After accounting for birth cohort effects through a negative control analysis involving older women reduced estimates to a 3.0-5.2 percentage point greater probability of hypertension than expected. We observed a mean 0.2 percentage point increase in the probability of hypertension per additional year of pension eligibility, but this trend was not statistically significant. Discussion and Implications: Although the Older Person's Grant is important for improving the financial circumstances of older adults and their families in South Africa, expanded pension eligibility may have a small, negative short-term effect on hypertension among older men in this rural, South African setting.

Randomized Evaluation of a Remote Management Program to Improve Guideline-directed Medical Therapy: The Diabetes Remote Intervention to Improve Use of Evidence-based Medications (DRIVE) Trial.

BACKGROUND: Several sodium-glucose transport protein 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) reduce cardiovascular (CV) events and improve kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D); however, utilization remains low despite guideline recommendations. METHODS: A randomized, remote implementation trial in the Mass General Brigham network enrolled patients with T2D at high CV and /or kidney risk. Patients eligible for, but not prescribed, SGLT2i or GLP-1 RA were randomly assigned to simultaneous virtual patient education with concurrent prescription of SGLT2i or GLP-1 RA ("simultaneous") or two months of virtual education followed by medication prescription ("education-first") delivered by a multi-disciplinary team driven by non-licensed navigators and clinical pharmacists who prescribed SGLT2i or GLP-1 RA using a standardized treatment algorithm. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with prescriptions for either SGLT2i or GLP-1 RA by 6 months. RESULTS: Between March 2021 and December 2022, 200 patients were randomized. Mean age was 66.5 years, 36.5% were female, 22.0% were non-White. Overall, 30.0% had cardiovascular CV disease, 5.0% had cerebrovascular disease, and 1.5% had both. Mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 77.9 mL/min/1.73m2 and mean urine/albumin creatinine ratio (UACR) 88.6mg/g. After two months, 69/200 (34.5%) patients received a new prescription for either SGLT2i or GLP-1 RA: 53.4% of patients in the simultaneous arm vs. 8.3% of patients were in the education-first arm (p<0.001). After six months, 128/200 (64.0%) received a new prescription: 69.8 % of patients in the simultaneous arm vs. 56.0% of patients in education-first (p<0.001). Patient self-report of taking SGLT2i or GLP-1 RA within six months of trial entry was similarly higher in the simultaneous versus education-first arm (69 /116; 59.5% vs 37/84; 44.0%; p<0.001) Median time to first prescription was 24 (IQR 13, 50) vs 85 days (IQR 65, 106), respectively (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this randomized trial, a remote team-based program that identifies patients with T2D and high CV or kidney risk, provides virtual education, and prescribes SGLT2i or GLP-1 RA improves GDMT. These findings support greater utilization of virtual team-based approaches to optimize chronic disease management.

Cost Effectiveness of Dapagliflozin for Heart Failure Across the Spectrum of Ejection Fraction: An Economic Evaluation Based on Pooled, Individual Participant Data From the DELIVER and DAPA-HF Trials.

BACKGROUND: The sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors are guideline-recommended to treat heart failure across the spectrum of left ventricular ejection fraction; however, economic evaluations of adding sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors to standard of care in chronic heart failure across a broad left ventricular ejection fraction range are lacking. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a US-based cost-effectiveness analysis of dapagliflozin added to standard of care in a chronic heart failure population using pooled, participant data from the DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure) and DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trials. The 3-state Markov model used estimates of transitional probabilities, effectiveness of dapagliflozin, and utilities from the pooled trials. Costs estimates were obtained from published sources, including published rebates in dapagliflozin cost. Adding dapagliflozin to standard of care was estimated to produce an additional 0.53 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared with standard of care alone. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were $85 554/QALY when using the publicly reported full (undiscounted) Medicare cost ($515/month) and $40 081/QALY, at a published nearly 50% rebate ($263/month). The addition of dapagliflozin to standard of care would be of at least intermediate value (<$150 000/QALY) at a cost of <$872.58/month, of high value (<$50 000/QALY) at <$317.66/month, and cost saving at <$40.25/month. Dapagliflozin was of at least intermediate value in 92% of simulations when using the full (undiscounted) Medicare list cost in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Cost effectiveness was most sensitive to the dapagliflozin cost and the effect on cardiovascular death. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of dapagliflozin to standard of care in patients with heart failure across the spectrum of ejection fraction was at least of intermediate value at the undiscounted Medicare cost and may be potentially of higher value on the basis of the level of discount, rebates, and price negotiations offered. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifiers: NCT01035255 & NCT01920711.

Methods, rationale, and design for a remote pharmacist and navigator-driven disease management program to improve guideline-directed medical therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes at elevated cardiovascular and/or kidney risk.

AIM: Describe the rationale for and design of Diabetes Remote Intervention to improVe use of Evidence-based medications (DRIVE), a remote medication management program designed to initiate and titrate guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) at elevated cardiovascular (CV) and/or kidney risk by leveraging non-physician providers. METHODS: An electronic health record based algorithm is used to identify patients with T2D and either established atherosclerotic CV disease (ASCVD), high risk for ASCVD, chronic kidney disease, and/or heart failure within our health system. Patients are invited to participate and randomly assigned to either simultaneous education and medication management, or a period of education prior to medication management. Patient navigators (trained, non-licensed staff) are the primary points of contact while a pharmacist or nurse practitioner reviews and authorizes each medication initiation and titration under an institution-approved collaborative drug therapy management protocol with supervision from a cardiologist and/or endocrinologist. Patient engagement is managed through software to support communication, automation, workflow, and standardization. CONCLUSION: We are testing a remote, navigator-driven, pharmacist-led, and physician-overseen management strategy to optimize GDMT for T2D as a population-level strategy to close the gap between guidelines and clinical practice for patients with T2D at elevated CV and/or kidney risk.

The Heart of the World.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality globally. Of the 20.5 million CVD-related deaths in 2021, approximately 80% occurred in low- and middle-income countries. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, NCD Countdown initiative, WHO Global Health Observatory, and WHO Global Health Expenditure database, we present the burden of CVDs, associated risk factors, their association with national health expenditures, and an index of critical policy implementation. The Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia region face the highest levels of CVD mortality globally. Although CVD mortality levels are generally lower in women than men, this is not true in almost 30% of countries in the North Africa and Middle East and Sub-Saharan regions. Raised blood pressure remains the leading global CVD risk factor, contributing to 10.8 million deaths in 2019. The regions with the highest proportion of countries achieving the maximum score for the WHF Policy Index were South Asia, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, and the High-Income regions. The Sub-Saharan Africa region had the highest proportion of countries scoring two or less. Policymakers must assess their country's risk factor profile to craft effective strategies for CVD prevention and management. Fundamental strategies such as the implementation of National Tobacco Control Programmes, ensuring the availability of CVD medications, and establishing specialised units within health ministries to tackle non-communicable diseases should be embraced in all countries. Adequate healthcare system funding is equally vital, ensuring reasonable access to care for all communities.

Health and Economic Evaluation of Sacubitril-Valsartan for Heart Failure Management.

Importance: The US Food and Drug Administration expanded labeling of sacubitril-valsartan from the treatment of patients with chronic heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (EF) to all patients with HF, noting the greatest benefits in those with below-normal EF. However, the upper bound of below normal is not clearly defined, and value determinations across a broader EF range are unknown. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of sacubitril-valsartan vs renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASis) across various upper-level cutoffs of EF. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation included participant-level data from the PARADIGM-HF (Prospective Comparison of ARNI With ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure) and the PARAGON-HF (Prospective Comparison of ARNi with ARB Global Outcomes in HF With Preserved Ejection Fraction) trials. PARADIGM-HF was conducted between 2009 and 2014, PARAGON-HF was conducted between 2014 and 2019, and this analysis was conducted between 2021 and 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: A 5-state Markov model used risk reductions for all-cause mortality and HF hospitalization from PARADIGM-HF and PARAGON-HF. Quality-of-life differences were estimated from EuroQol-5D scores. Hospitalization and medication costs were obtained from published national sources; the wholesale acquisition cost of sacubitril-valsartan was $7092 per year. Risk estimates and treatment effects were generated in consecutive 5% EF increments up to 60% and applied to an EF distribution of US patients with HF from the Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure registry. The base case included a lifetime horizon from a health care sector perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated at EFs of 60% or less (base case) and at various upper-level EF cutoffs. Results: Among 13 264 total patients whose data were analyzed, for those with EFs of 60% or less, sacubitril-valsartan was projected to add 0.53 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at an incremental lifetime cost of $40 892 compared with RASi, yielding an ICER of $76 852 per QALY. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 95% of the values of the ICER occurred between $71 516 and $82 970 per QALY. Among patients with chronic HF and an EF of 60% or less, treatment with sacubitril-valsartan vs RASis would be at least of economic intermediate value (ICER <$180 000 per QALY) at a sacubitril-valsartan cost of $10 242 or less per year, of high economic value (ICER <$60 000 per QALY) at a cost of $3673 or less per year, and cost-saving at a cost of $338 or less per year. The ICERs were $67 331 per QALY, $59 614 per QALY, and $56 786 per QALY at EFs of 55% or less, 50% or less, and 45% or less, respectively. Treatment with sacubitril-valsartan in only those with EFs of 45% or greater (up to ≤60%) yielded an ICER of $127 172 per QALY gained; treatment was more cost-effective in those at the lower end of this range (ICER of $100 388 per QALY gained for those with EFs of 45%-55%; ICER of $84 291 per QALY gained for those with EFs of 45%-50%). Conclusions and Relevance: Cost-effectiveness modeling provided an ICER for treatment with sacubitril-valsartan vs RASis consistent with high economic value for patients with reduced and mildly reduced EFs (≤50%) and at least intermediate value at the current undiscounted wholesale acquisition cost price at an EF of 60% or less. Treatment was more cost-effective at lower EF ranges. These findings may have implications for coverage decisions and value assessments in contemporary clinical practice guidelines.

Protocol: Implementation evaluation of a combination intervention for sustainable blood pressure control in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (IMPACT BP): A three-arm, unblinded, parallel group individually randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the primary risk factor for stroke and heart disease, which are leading causes of death in South Africa. Despite the availability of treatments, there is an implementation gap in how best to deliver hypertension care in this resource-limited region. METHODS: We describe a three-arm parallel group individually randomized control trial to evaluate the effectiveness and implementation of a technology-supported, community-based intervention to improve blood pressure control among people with hypertension in rural KwaZulu-Natal. The study will compare three strategies: 1) standard of care (SOC arm) clinic-based management, 2) home-based blood pressure management supported by community blood pressure monitors (CBPM arm) and a mobile health application to record blood pressure readings and enable clinic-based nurses to remotely manage care, and 3) an identical strategy to the CBPM arm, except that participants will use a cellular blood pressure cuff, which automatically transmits completed readings over cellular networks directly to clinic-based nurses (eCBPM+ arm). The primary effectiveness outcome is change in blood pressure from enrollment to 6 months. The secondary effectiveness outcome is the proportion of participants with blood pressure control at 6 months. Acceptability, fidelity, sustainability, and cost-effectiveness of the interventions will also be assessed. CONCLUSIONS: In this protocol, we report the development of interventions in partnership with the South Africa Department of Health, a description of the technology-enhanced interventions, and details of the study design so that our intervention and evaluation can inform similar efforts in rural, resource-limited settings. PROTOCOL: Version 3 November 9th, 2022. CLINICALTRIALS: gov Trial Registration: NCT05492955 SAHPRA Trial Number: N20211201. SANCTR Number: DOH-27-112,022-4895.

Prioritizing Quality Measures in Acute Stroke Care : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association and American Stroke Association (AHA/ASA) endorsed 15 process measures for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) to improve the quality of care. Identifying the highest-value measures could reduce the administrative burden of quality measure adoption while retaining much of the value of quality improvement. OBJECTIVE: To prioritize AHA/ASA-endorsed quality measures for AIS on the basis of health impact and cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: Individual-based stroke simulation model. DATA SOURCES: Published literature. TARGET POPULATION: U.S. patients with incident AIS. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Health care sector. INTERVENTION: Current versus complete (100%) implementation at the population level of quality measures endorsed by the AHA/ASA with sufficient clinical evidence (10 of 15). OUTCOME MEASURES: Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and incremental net health benefits. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Discounted life-years gained from complete implementation would range from 472 (tobacco use counseling) to 34 688 (early carotid imaging) for an annual AIS patient cohort. All AIS quality measures were cost-saving or highly cost-effective by AHA standards (<$50 000 per QALY for high-value care). Early carotid imaging and intravenous tissue plasminogen activator contributed the largest fraction of the total potential value of quality improvement (measured as incremental net health benefit), accounting for 72% of the total value. The top 5 quality measures accounted for 92% of the total potential value. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: A web-based user interface allows for context-specific sensitivity and scenario analyses. LIMITATION: Correlations between quality measures were not incorporated. CONCLUSION: Substantial variation exists in the potential net benefit of quality improvement across AIS quality measures. Benefits were highly concentrated among 5 of 10 measures assessed. Our results can help providers and payers set priorities for quality improvement efforts and value-based payments in AIS care. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke.

Improvements in Hypertension Control in the Rural Longitudinal HAALSI Cohort of South African Adults Aged 40 and Older, From 2014 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Over half of the South African adults aged 45 years and older have hypertension but its effective management along the treatment cascade (awareness, treatment, and control) remains poorly understood. METHODS: We compared the prevalence of all stages of the hypertension treatment cascade in the rural HAALSI cohort of older adults at baseline and after four years of follow-up using household surveys and blood pressure data. Hypertension was a mean systolic blood pressure >140 mm Hg or diastolic pressure >90 mm Hg, or current use of anti-hypertension medication. Control was a mean blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg. The effects of sex and age on the treatment cascade at follow-up were assessed. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate prevalence ratios along the treatment cascade at follow-up. RESULTS: Prevalence along the treatment cascade increased from baseline (B) to follow-up (F): awareness (64.4% vs. 83.6%), treatment (49.7% vs. 73.9%), and control (22.8% vs. 41.3%). At both time points, women had higher levels of awareness (B: 70.5% vs. 56.3%; F: 88.1% vs. 76.7%), treatment (B: 55.9% vs. 41.55; F: 79.9% vs. 64.7%), and control (B: 26.5% vs. 17.9%; F: 44.8% vs. 35.7%). Prevalence along the cascade increased linearly with age for everyone. Predictors of awareness included being female, elderly, or visiting a primary health clinic three times in the previous 3 months, and the latter two also predicted hypertension control. CONCLUSIONS: There were significant improvements in awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension from baseline to follow-up and women fared better at all stages, at both time points.

Significant Improvement in Blood Pressure Levels Among Older Adults With Hypertension in Rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing an epidemiologic transition from infectious diseases to cardiovascular diseases. From 2014 to 2019, sociodemographic surveillance was performed in a large cohort in rural South Africa. METHODS: Disease prevalence and incidence were calculated using inverse probability weights. Poisson regression was used to identify disease predictors. The percentage of individuals with controlled (<140/90 mm Hg) versus uncontrolled hypertension was compared between 2014 and 2019. RESULTS: Compared with 2014 (n=5059), study participants in 2019 (n=4176) had similar rates of obesity (mean body mass index, 27.5±10.0 versus 27.0±6.5) but higher smoking (9.1% versus 11.5%) and diabetes (11.1% versus 13.9%). There was no significant increase in hypertension prevalence (58.4% versus 59.8%; age adjusted, 64.3% versus 63.3%), and there was a significant reduction in mean systolic blood pressure (138.0 versus 128.5 mm Hg; P<0.001). Among hypertensive individuals who reported medication use in 2014 and 2019 (n=796), the proportion with controlled hypertension on medication increased from 44.5% to 62.3%. Hypertension incidence was 6.2 per 100 person-years, and age was the only independent predictor. Among normotensive individuals in 2014 (n=2257), 15.2% developed hypertension by 2019, with the majority already controlled on medications by 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The hypertension prevalence and incidence are plateauing in this aging cohort. There was a statistically and clinically significant decline in mean blood pressure and a substantial increase in individuals with controlled hypertension on medication. The prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors did not decrease over time, suggesting that the blood pressure decrease is likely due to increased medication access and adherence, promoted by local health systems.

Results of a Remotely Delivered Hypertension and Lipid Program in More Than 10 000 Patients Across a Diverse Health Care Network.

Importance: Blood pressure (BP) and cholesterol control remain challenging. Remote care can deliver more effective care outside of traditional clinician-patient settings but scaling and ensuring access to care among diverse populations remains elusive. Objective: To implement and evaluate a remote hypertension and cholesterol management program across a diverse health care network. Design, Setting, and Participants: Between January 2018 and July 2021, 20 454 patients in a large integrated health network were screened; 18 444 were approached, and 10 803 were enrolled in a comprehensive remote hypertension and cholesterol program (3658 patients with hypertension, 8103 patients with cholesterol, and 958 patients with both). A total of 1266 patients requested education only without medication titration. Enrolled patients received education, home BP device integration, and medication titration. Nonlicensed navigators and pharmacists, supported by cardiovascular clinicians, coordinated care using standardized algorithms, task management and automation software, and omnichannel communication. BP and laboratory test results were actively monitored. Main Outcomes and Measures: Changes in BP and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Results: The mean (SD) age among 10 803 patients was 65 (11.4) years; 6009 participants (56%) were female; 1321 (12%) identified as Black, 1190 (11%) as Hispanic, 7758 (72%) as White, and 1727 (16%) as another or multiple races (including American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, unknown, other, and declined to respond; consolidated owing to small numbers); and 142 (11%) reported a preferred language other than English. A total of 424 482 BP readings and 139 263 laboratory reports were collected. In the hypertension program, the mean (SD) office BP prior to enrollment was 150/83 (18/10) mm Hg, and the mean (SD) home BP was 145/83 (20/12) mm Hg. For those engaged in remote medication management, the mean (SD) clinic BP 6 and 12 months after enrollment decreased by 8.7/3.8 (21.4/12.4) and 9.7/5.2 (22.2/12.6) mm Hg, respectively. In the education-only cohort, BP changed by a mean (SD) -1.5/-0.7 (23.0/11.1) and by +0.2/-1.9 (30.3/11.2) mm Hg, respectively (P < .001 for between cohort difference). In the lipids program, patients in remote medication management experienced a reduction in LDL-C by a mean (SD) 35.4 (43.1) and 37.5 (43.9) mg/dL at 6 and 12 months, respectively, while the education-only cohort experienced a mean (SD) reduction in LDL-C of 9.3 (34.3) and 10.2 (35.5) mg/dL at 6 and 12 months, respectively (P < .001). Similar rates of enrollment and reductions in BP and lipids were observed across different racial, ethnic, and primary language groups. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study indicate that a standardized remote BP and cholesterol management program may help optimize guideline-directed therapy at scale, reduce cardiovascular risk, and minimize the need for in-person visits among diverse populations.

Estimating population level 24-h sodium excretion using spot urine samples in older adults in rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: South Africa has introduced regulations to reduce sodium in processed foods. Assessing salt consumption with 24-h urine collection is logistically challenging and expensive. We assess the accuracy of using spot urine samples to estimate 24-h urine sodium (24hrUNa) excretion at the population level in a cohort of older adults in rural South Africa. METHODS: 24hrUNa excretion was measured and compared to that estimated from matched spot urine samples in 399 individuals, aged 40-75 years, from rural Mpumalanga, South Africa. We used the Tanaka, Kawasaki, International Study of Sodium, Potassium, and Blood Pressure (INTERSALT), and Population Mean Volume (PMV) method to predict 24hrUNa at the individual and population level. RESULTS: The population median 24hrUNa excretion from our samples collected in 2017 was 2.6 g (interquartile range: 1.53-4.21) equal to an average daily salt intake of 6.6 g, whereas 65.4% of participants had a salt excretion above the WHO recommended 5 g/day. Estimated population median 24hrUNa derived from the INTERSALT, both with and without potassium, showed a nonsignificant difference of 0.25 g (P = 0.59) and 0.21 g (P = 0.67), respectively. In contrast, the Tanaka, Kawasaki, and PMV formulas were markedly higher than the measured 24hrUNa, with a median difference of 0.51 g (P = 0.004), 0.99 g (P = 0.00), and 1.05 g (P = 0.00) respectively. All formulas however performed poorly when predicting an individual's 24hrUNa. CONCLUSION: In this population, the INTERSALT formulas are a well suited and cost-effective alternative to 24-h urine collection for the evaluation of population median 24hrUNa excretion. This could play an important role for governments and public health agencies in evaluating local salt regulations and identifying at-risk populations.

A Proposal of a Cost-Effectiveness Modeling Approach for Heart Failure Treatment Assessment: Considering the Short- and Long-Term Impact of Hospitalization on Event Rates.

BACKGROUND: The rate of events such as recurrent heart failure (HF) hospitalization and death are known to dramatically increase directly after HF hospitalization. Furthermore, the number of HF hospitalizations is associated with irreversible long-term disease progression, which is in turn associated with increased event rates. However, cost-effectiveness models of HF treatments commonly fail to capture both the short- and long-term association between HF hospitalization and events. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to provide a decision-analytic model that reflects the short- and long-term association between HF hospitalization and event rates. Furthermore, we assess the impact of omitting these associations. METHODS: We developed a life-time Markov cohort model to evaluate HF treatments, and modeled the short-term impact of HF hospitalization on event rates via a sequence of tunnel states, with transition probabilities following a parametric survival curve. The corresponding long-term impact was modeled via hazard ratios per HF hospitalization. We obtained baseline event rates and utilities from published literature. Subsequently, we assessed, for a hypothetical HF treatment, how omitting the modeled associations (through a simple two-state model) affects incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS: We developed a model that incorporates both short- and long-term impacts of HF hospitalizations. Based on an assumed treatment effect of a 20% risk reduction for HF hospitalization (and associated reductions in all-cause mortality of 15%), omitting the short-term, the long-term, or both associations resulted in a 5%, 1%, and 22% decrease in QALYs gained, respectively. CONCLUSION: For both modeling components, i.e., the short- and long-term implications of HF hospitalization, the impact on incremental outcomes associated with treatment was substantial. Considering these aspects as proposed within this modeling approach better reflects the natural course of this progressive condition and will enhance the evaluation of future HF treatments.

Sacubitril/valsartan vs ACEi/ARB at hospital discharge and 5-year survival in older patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: A decision analysis approach.

BACKGROUND: In clinical trials, sacubitril/valsartan has demonstrated significant survival benefits compared to angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEi/ARB). Whether older patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) benefit as much, due to higher rates of comorbidities, frailty and drug discontinuation, is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with HFrEF between 2016 and 2018, we determined all-cause mortality and HF-readmission rates among patients not given ACEi/ARB or sacubitril/valsartan at hospital discharge, by age. We then used risk reductions from the SOLVD, PARADIGM-HF and PIONEER-HF trials to estimate the benefits of ACEi/ARB and sacubitril/valsartan. We then incorporated age-specific estimates of drug discontinuation from Medicare. A Markov decision process model was used to simulate 5-year survival and estimate number needed to treat, comparing discharge on ACEi/ARB vs sacubitril/valsartan by age. After accounting for drug discontinuation rates, which were surprisingly slightly higher among those discharged on ACEi/ARB (2.3%/month vs 1.9%/month), there was a small but significant survival advantage to discharge on sacubitril/valsartan over 5 years (+0.81 months [95% CI 0.80, 0.81]). The benefit of sacubitril/valsartan over ACEi/ARB did not decrease with increasing age - the number needed to treat among 66 to 74-year-old patients was 84 and among 85+ year-old patients was 67. CONCLUSIONS: Even after accounting for "real world" rates of drug discontinuation, discharge on sacubitril/valsartan after conferred a small, but significant, survival advantage which does not appear to wane with increasing age.

Evaluation of the Usage and Dosing of Guideline-Directed Medical Therapy for Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction Patients in Clinical Practice.

BACKGROUND: Although strategies for optimization of pharmacologic therapy in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are scripted by guidelines, data from HF registries suggests that guideline-directed medical therapies (GDMT) are underutilized among eligible patients. Whether this discrepancy reflects medication intolerance, contraindications, or a quality of care issue remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this initiative was to identify reasons for underutilization and under-dosing of HFrEF therapy in patients at a large, academic medical center. METHODS: Among 500 patients with HFrEF enrolled in a quality improvement project at a tertiary center, we evaluated usage and dosing of 4 categories of GDMT: ACE inhibitors/Angiotensin Receptor Blockers (ACE-i/ARB), Angiotensin Receptor-Neprilysin Inhibitors (ARNi), beta blockers, and Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists (MRA). Reasons for nonprescription and usage of suboptimal doses were abstracted from notes in the chart and from telephone review of previous medication trials with the patient. RESULTS: Of 500 patients identified, 472 subjects had complete data for analysis. Among eligible patients, ACE-i/ARB were prescribed in 81.4% (293 of 360) and beta blockers in 94.4% (442 of 468). Of these patients, 10.6% were prescribed target doses of ACE-i/ARB and 12.4% were prescribed target doses of beta blockers. Utilization of other categories of GDMT was lower, with 54% of eligible patients prescribed MRAs and 27% prescribed an ARNi. In most cases, the reasons for nonprescription or under-dosing of GDMT were not apparent on review of the health record or discussion with the patient. CONCLUSION: Clear rationale for nonprescription and under-dosing of GDMT often cannot be ascertained from detailed review and is only rarely related to documented medication intolerance or contraindications, suggesting an opportunity for quality improvement.

Population health management of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol via a remote, algorithmic, navigator-executed program.

BACKGROUND: Implementation of guideline-directed cholesterol management remains low despite definitive evidence establishing such measures reduce cardiovascular (CV) events, especially in high atherosclerotic CV disease (ASCVD) risk patients. Modern electronic resources now exist that may help improve health care delivery. While electronic medical records (EMR) allow for population health screening, the potential for coupling EMR screening to remotely delivered algorithmic population-based management has been less studied as a way of overcoming barriers to optimal cholesterol management. METHODS: In an academically affiliated healthcare system, using EMR screening, we sought to identify 1,000 high ASCVD risk patients not meeting guideline-directed low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) goals within specific system-affiliated primary care practices. Contacted patients received cholesterol education and were offered a remote, guideline-directed, algorithmic cholesterol management program executed by trained but non-licensed "navigators" under professional supervision. Navigators used telephone, proprietary software and internet resources to facilitate algorithm-driven, guideline-based medication initiation/titration, and laboratory testing until patients achieved LDL-C goals or exited the program. As a clinical effectiveness program for cholesterol guideline implementation, comparison was made to those contacted patients who declined program-based medication management, and received education only, along with their usual care. RESULTS: 1021 patients falling into guideline-defined high ASCVD risk groups warranting statin therapy (ASCVD, type 2 diabetes, LDL ≥ 190 mg/dL, calculated 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5%) and not achieving guideline-defined target LDL-C levels and/or therapy were identified and contacted. Among the 698 such patients who opted for program medication management, significant LDL-C reductions occurred in the total cohort (mean -65.4 mg/dL, 45% decrease), and each high ASCVD risk subgroup: ASCVD (-57.2 mg/dL, -48.0%); diabetes mellitus (-53.1 mg/dL, -40.0%); severe hypercholesterolemia (-76.3 mg/dL, -45.7%); elevated ASCVD 10-year risk (-62.8 mg/dL, -41.1%) (P<0.001 for all), without any significant complications. Among 20% of participants with reported statin intolerance, average LDL-C decreased from baseline 143 mg/dL to 85 mg/dL using mainly statins and ezetimibe, with limited PCSK9 inhibitor use. In comparison, eligible high ASCVD risk patients who were contacted but opted for education only, a 17% LDL-C decrease occurred over a similar timeframe, with 80% remaining with an LDL-C over 100 mg/dL. CONCLUSIONS: A remote, algorithm-driven, navigator-executed cholesterol management program successfully identified high ASCVD risk undertreated patients using EMR screening and was associated with significantly improved guideline-directed LDL-C control, supporting this approach as a novel strategy for improving health care access and delivery.

Hypertension incidence among middle-aged and older adults: findings from a 5-year prospective study in rural South Africa, 2010-2015.

OBJECTIVES: There is a scarcity of longitudinal cohort studies in sub-Saharan Africa to understand the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease as a basis for intervention. We estimated incident hypertension and associated sociodemographic, health and behavioural risk factors in a population aged 40 years and older over a 5-year period. DESIGN: We assessed the association between incident hypertension and sociodemographic, health and behavioural factors using Poisson regression. We adjusted for non-response in 2015 using inverse probability sampling weights from a logistic regression including sex and age at baseline. SETTING: Rural South Africa. PARTICIPANTS: We used a population-based cohort of normotensive adults in 2010 who were aged 40 years and older at retest in 2015. RESULTS: Of 676 individuals completing baseline and 5-year follow-up, there were 193 incident cases of hypertension. The overall hypertension incidence rate was 8.374/100 person-years. In multivariable analyses, those who became hypertensive were more likely to be older, have a high waist circumference (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.557, 95% CI: 1.074 to 2.259) and be employed (IRR: 1.579, 95% CI: 1.071 to 2.329) at baseline. Being HIV positive and not on antiretroviral therapy at baseline was associated with lower risk of incident hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Over a 5-year period, 29% of respondents developed hypertension. Given the high burden of hypertension in South Africa, continued longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand the complex interplay of non-communicable and infectious diseases and their underlying and modifiable risk factors to inform public health prevention strategies and programmes.

Echocardiographic and Electrocardiographic Abnormalities Among Elderly Adults With Cardiovascular Disease in Rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing an epidemiological transition fueled by the interaction between infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Our cross-sectional study aimed to characterize the spectrum of abnormalities suggesting end-organ damage on ECG and transthoracic echocardiograms (TTE) among older adults with cardiovascular diseases in rural South Africa. METHODS: The prevalence of ECG and TTE abnormalities was estimated; χ2 analyses and multivariable logistic regressions were performed to test their association with sex, hypertension, and other selected comorbidities. RESULTS: Overall, 729 ECGs and 155 TTEs were completed, with 74 participants completing both. ECG evaluation showed high rates of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH, 36.5%) and T wave abnormalities (13.6%). TTE evaluation showed high rates of concentric LVH (31.6%), with moderate-severe (56.8%) diastolic dysfunction. Participants with hypertension showed more cardiac remodeling on ECG by LVH (45.4% versus 22.1%, P<0.01), and TTE by concentric LVH (42.5% versus 8.2%, P<0.01) and increased left ventricular mass (58.5% versus 20.4%, P<0.0001). In multivariable logistic regression, systolic blood pressure remained significantly associated with LVH on ECG (adjusted odds ratio, 1.03 per mm Hg [95% CI, 1.03-1.04], P<0.0001) and increased left ventricular mass on TTE (adjusted odds ratio, 1.04 per mm Hg [95% CI, 1.01-1.06], P=0.001). Male participants (n=326, 40.2%) were more likely than females (n=484, 59.8%) to show ECG abnormalities like LVH (45% versus 30.8%, P<0.01), whereas females were more likely to show TTE abnormalities like concentric LVH (40.8% versus 13.5%, P<0.01) and increased left ventricular mass (58.4% versus 23.1%, P<0.0001). Similar results were confirmed in multivariable models. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that cardiovascular diseases are widespread in rural South Africa, with a larger burden of hypertensive heart disease than previously appreciated, and define the severity of end-organ damage that is already underway. Local health systems must adapt to face the growing burden of hypertension, as suboptimal rates of hypertension diagnosis and treatment may dramatically increase the heart failure burden.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Achieving the National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative Voluntary Sugar Reduction Targets in the United States: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: High intake of added sugar is linked to weight gain and cardiometabolic risk. In 2018, the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative proposed government-supported voluntary national sugar reduction targets. This intervention's potential effects and cost-effectiveness are unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), coded in C++, was used to estimate incremental changes in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative policy. The model was run at the individual level, incorporating the annual probability of each person's transition between health statuses on the basis of risk factors. The model incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey across 3 cycles (2011 through 2016), added sugar-related diseases from meta-analyses, and policy costs and health-related costs from established sources. A simulated nationally representative US population was created and followed until age 100 years or death, with 2019 as the year of intervention start. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and a lifetime from health care and societal perspectives. Uncertainty was evaluated in a 1-way analysis by assuming 50% industry compliance and probabilistic sensitivity analyses through a second-order Monte Carlo approach. Model outputs included averted diabetes cases, CVD events and CVD deaths, QALYs gained, and formal health care cost savings, stratified by age, race, income, and education. RESULTS: Achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reduction targets could prevent 2.48 million CVD events, 0.49 million CVD deaths, and 0.75 million diabetes cases; gain 6.67 million QALYs; and save $160.88 billion net costs from a societal perspective over a lifetime. The policy became cost-effective (<150 000/QALYs) at 6 years, highly cost-effective (<50 000/QALYs) at 7 years, and cost-saving at 9 years. Results were robust from a health care perspective, with lower (50%) industry compliance, and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The policy could also reduce disparities, with greatest estimated health gains per million adults among Black or Hispanic individuals, lower income, and less educated Americans. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing and achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reformation targets could generate substantial health gains, equity gains, and cost savings.