Development of a clinical prediction model for perinatal deaths in low resource settings.

BACKGROUND: Most pregnancy-related deaths in low and middle income countries occur around the time of birth and are avoidable with timely care. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model to identify women at risk of intrapartum-related perinatal deaths in low-resourced settings, by (1) external validation of an existing prediction model, and subsequently (2) development of a novel model. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted among pregnant women who presented consecutively for delivery at the maternity unit of Zanzibar's tertiary hospital, Mnazi Mmoja Hospital, the Republic of Tanzania between October 2017 and May 2018. Candidate predictors of perinatal deaths included maternal and foetal characteristics obtained from routine history and physical examination at the time of admission to the labour ward. The outcomes were intrapartum stillbirths and neonatal death before hospital discharge. An existing stillbirth prediction model with six predictors from Nigeria was applied to the Zanzibar cohort to assess its discrimination and calibration performance. Subsequently, a new prediction model was developed using multivariable logistic regression. Model performance was evaluated through internal validation and corrected for overfitting using bootstrapping methods. FINDINGS: 5747 mother-baby pairs were analysed. The existing model showed poor discrimination performance (c-statistic 0·57). The new model included 15 clinical predictors and showed promising discriminative and calibration performance after internal validation (optimism adjusted c-statistic of 0·78, optimism adjusted calibration slope =0·94). INTERPRETATION: The new model consisted of predictors easily obtained through history-taking and physical examination at the time of admission to the labour ward. It had good performance in predicting risk of perinatal death in women admitted in labour wards. Therefore, it has the potential to assist skilled birth attendance to triage women for appropriate management during labour. Before routine implementation, external validation and usefulness should be determined in future studies. FUNDING: The study received funding from Laerdal Foundation, Otto Kranendonk Fund and UMC Global Health Fellowship. TD acknowledges financial support from the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (grant 91617050).

Persistent Hypertension Up to One Year Postpartum among Women with Hypertensive Disorders in Pregnancy in a Low-Resource Setting: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Background: Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy (HDPs) are associated with lifelong cardiovascular disease risk. Persistent postpartum hypertension in HDPs could suggest progression to chronic hypertension. This phenomenon has not been well examined in low- and middle-income countries (LIMCs), and most previous follow-ups typically last for maximally six weeks postpartum. We assessed the prevalence of persistent hypertension up to one year in women with HDPs in a low resource setting and determined associated risk factors. Methodology: A prospective cohort study of women conducted at eight tertiary health care facilities in seven states of Nigeria. Four hundred and ten women with any HDP were enrolled within 24 hours of delivery and followed up at intervals until one year postpartum. Descriptive statistics were performed to express the participants' characteristics. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were conducted to identify associated risk factors. Results: Of the 410 women enrolled, 278 were followed up to one year after delivery (follow-up rate 68%). Among women diagnosed with gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, 22.3% (95% CI; 8.3-36.3) and 62.1% (95% CI; 52.5-71.9), respectively, had persistent hypertension at six months and this remained similar at one year 22.3% (95% CI; 5.6-54.4) and 61.2% (95% CI; 40.6-77.8). Maternal age and body mass index were significant risk factors for persistent hypertension at one year [aORs = 1.07/year (95% CI; 1.02-1.13) and 1.06/kg/m2 (95% CI; 1.01-1.10)], respectively. Conclusion: This study showed a substantial prevalence of persistent hypertension beyond puerperium. Health systems in LMICs need to be organized to anticipate and maintain postpartum monitoring until blood pressure is normalized, or women referred or discharged to family physicians as appropriate. In particular, attention should be given to women who are obese, and or of higher maternal age.

Metabolic syndrome following hypertensive disorders in pregnancy in a low-resource setting: A cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy (HDPs) are associated with risk of future metabolic syndrome. Despite the huge burden of HDPs in sub-Saharan Africa, this association has not been adequately studied in this population. STUDY DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study on pregnant women recruited between August 2017 - April 2018 and followed up to one year after their deliveries and evaluated for presence of metabolic syndrome at delivery, nine weeks, six months and one year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of metabolic syndrome RESULTS: A total of 488 pregnant women were included: 410 and 78 with HDPs and normotensive, respectively. None of the normotensive had metabolic syndrome until one year (1.7% = 1 out of 59 observations), while among those with HDPs were 17.4% (71 of 407), 8.7% (23 of 263), 4.7% (11 of 232) and 6.1% (17 of 278), at delivery, nine weeks, six months and one year postpartum, respectively. High BMI and blood pressure were the drivers of metabolic syndrome in this population. The incidence rate in HDPs versus normotensive at one year were, respectively, 57.5/1000 persons' year (95%CI; 35.8 - 92.6) and 16.9/1000 persons' years (95%CI; 2.4-118.3), with incidence rate ratio of 3.4/1000 person's years. Only parity significantly predicted the presence of metabolic syndrome at one year [(aOR= 3.26/delivery (95%CI; 1.21-8.79)]. CONCLUSION: HDPs were associated with a higher incidence of metabolic syndrome up to one year postpartum. Women with HDPs should be routinely screened for metabolic syndrome within the first year postpartum to reduce cardiometabolic risks.

Ecologic correlation between underlying population level morbidities and COVID-19 case fatality rate among countries infected with SARS-CoV-2

BackgroundThe ongoing Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is unprecedented in scope. High income countries (HIC) seemingly account for the majority of the mortalities considering that these countries have screened more persons. Low middle income countries (LMIC) countries may experience far worse mortalities considering the existence of a weaker health care system and the several underlying population level morbidities. As a result, it becomes imperative to understand the ecological correlation between critical underlying population level morbidities and COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFR). MethodThis is an ecological study using data on COVID-19 cases, prevalence of COPD, prevalence of tobacco use, adult HIV prevalence, quality of air and life expectancy. We plotted a histogram, performed the Shapiro-Wilk normality test and used spearman correlation to assess the degree of correlation between COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) and other covariates mentioned above. ResultAs at the 31st of March 2020, there were a total of 846,281 cases of COVID-19 from 204 countries and a global case fatality rate of 5% (range 0% to 29%). Angola and Sudan both had the highest CFR of 29%, while Italy had the highest number of deaths (i.e. 12,428) as at 31st of March 2020. Adult HIV prevalence has a significant but weak negative correlation with CFR (correlation coefficient = - 0.24, p value =0.01) while all the other variables have positive correlation with CFR due to COVID-19 though not statistically significant. Of the 204 countries analyzed, only 11 countries (i.e. 5%) had complete datasets across all 5 population level morbidities (i.e. prevalence of COPD, prevalence of tobacco use, life expectancy, quality of air, and adult HIV prevalence variables). Correlations of CFR from these 11 countries were similar to that from the 204 countries except for the correlation with quality of air and prevalence of tobacco use. Conclusion: While we interpret our data with caution given the fact that this is an ecological study, our findings suggest that population level factors such as prevalence of COPD, prevalence of tobacco use, life expectancy and quality of air are positively correlated with CFR from COVID-19 but, adult HIV prevalence has a weak and negative correlation with COVID-19 CFR and would require extensive research.

Country characteristics and variation in diabetes prevalence among Asian countries - an ecological study / Journal of the ASEAN Federation of Endocrine Societies

@#<p> OBJECTIVE:</b> To determine the variation in diabetes prevalence across Asian countries and its relationship with the quality of health system and socioeconomic characteristics of the country.</p><p><strong>METHODOLOGY:</strong> An ecological analysis was conducted using publicly available data from the World Bank, the World Health Organization and the International Diabetes Federation. Geographical variation in diabetes prevalence across countries was examined using control charts while the relationships between country-level determinants and diabetes prevalence were investigated using linear regression analysis.</p><p><strong>RESULTS:</strong> The control chart shows special-cause variation in diabetes prevalence in 21 (58%) of the Asian countries; nine countries were below the 99.8% control limits while twelve were above it.</p><p>Fifteen (42%) countries suggest common-cause variation. Three country characteristics independently associated with diabetes prevalence were hypertension prevalence (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.55; p-value<0.001), obesity prevalence (OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.18; p-value<0.001), and quality of health care governance (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.34; p-value=0.02).</p><p><strong>CONCLUSION:</strong> There is a considerable geographical variation in diabetes prevalence across Asian countries. A substantial part of this variation could be explained by differences in the quality of health care governance, hypertension prevalence and obesity prevalence.</p>

Optimal Timing of Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation for HIV-Infected Adults With Newly Diagnosed Pulmonary Tuberculosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) during tuberculosis (TB) treatment remains challenging. PURPOSE: To assess evidence from randomized, controlled trials of the timing of ART initiation in HIV-infected adults with newly diagnosed pulmonary TB. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, conference abstracts, and ClinicalTrials.gov (from January 1980 to May 2015). STUDY SELECTION: Randomized, controlled trials evaluating early versus delayed ART initiation (1 to 4 weeks vs. 8 to 12 weeks after initiation of TB treatment) or deferred ART initiation (after the end of TB treatment). DATA EXTRACTION: Three reviewers independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. The main outcome measures were all-cause mortality and the TB-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (TB-IRIS). DATA SYNTHESIS: The 8 included trials (n = 4568) were conducted in Africa, Asia, and the United States and were generally at low risk of bias for the assessed domains. Overall, early ART reduced mortality compared with delayed ART (relative risk [RR], 0.81 [95% CI, 0.66 to 0.99]; I2 = 0%). In a prespecified subgroup analysis, early ART reduced mortality compared with delayed ART among patients with baseline CD4+ T-cell counts less than 0.050 × 109 cells/L (RR, 0.71 [CI, 0.54 to 0.93]; I2 = 0%). However, a mortality benefit from early ART was not found among those with CD4+ T-cell counts greater than 0.050 × 109 cells/L (RR, 1.05 [CI, 0.68 to 1.61]; I2 = 56%). Early ART was associated with a higher incidence of TB-IRIS than delayed ART (RR, 2.31 [CI, 1.87 to 2.86]; I2 = 19%). LIMITATION: Few trials provided sufficient data for subgroup analysis. CONCLUSION: Early ART in HIV-infected adults with newly diagnosed TB improves survival in those with CD4+ T-cell counts less than 0.050 × 109 cells/L, although this is associated with a 2-fold higher frequency of TB-IRIS. In patients with CD4+ T-cell counts greater than 0.050 × 109 cells/L, evidence is insufficient to support or refute a survival benefit conferred by early versus delayed ART initiation. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None. (PROSPERO registration: CRD42012001884).