Shifting fire regimes cause continent-wide transformation of threatened species habitat.

Human actions are causing widespread increases in fire size, frequency, and severity in diverse ecosystems globally. This alteration of fire regimes is considered a threat to numerous animal species, but empirical evidence of how fire regimes are shifting within both threatened species' ranges and protected areas is scarce, particularly at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a big data approach to quantify multidecadal changes in fire regimes in southern Australia from 1980 to 2021, spanning 415 reserves (21.5 million ha) and 129 threatened species' ranges including birds, mammals, reptiles, invertebrates, and frogs. Most reserves and threatened species' ranges within the region have experienced declines in unburnt vegetation (≥30 y without fire), increases in recently burnt vegetation (≤5 y since fire), and increases in fire frequency. The mean percentage of unburnt vegetation within reserves declined from 61 to 36% (1980 to 2021), whereas the mean percentage of recently burnt vegetation increased from 20 to 35%, and mean fire frequency increased by 32%, with the latter two trends primarily driven by the record-breaking 2019 to 2020 fire season. The strongest changes occurred for high-elevation threatened species, and reserves of high elevation, high productivity, and strong rainfall decline, particularly in the southeast of the continent. Our results provide evidence for the widely held but poorly tested assumption that threatened species are experiencing widespread declines in unburnt habitat and increases in fire frequency. This underscores the imperative for developing management strategies that conserve fire-threatened species in an increasingly fiery future.

Identifying historical and future global change drivers that place species recovery at risk.

Ecosystem management in the face of global change requires understanding how co-occurring threats affect species and communities. Such an understanding allows for effective management strategies to be identified and implemented. An important component of this is differentiating between factors that are within (e.g. invasive predators) or outside (e.g. drought, large wildfires) of a local manager's control. In the global biodiversity hotspot of south-western Australia, small- and medium-sized mammal species are severely affected by anthropogenic threats and environmental disturbances, including invasive predators, fire, and declining rainfall. However, the relative importance of different drivers has not been quantified. We used data from a long-term monitoring program to fit Bayesian state-space models that estimated spatial and temporal changes in the relative abundance of four threatened mammal species: the woylie (Bettongia penicillata), chuditch (Dasyurus geoffroii), koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula) and quenda (Isoodon fusciventor). We then use Bayesian structural equation modelling to identify the direct and indirect drivers of population changes, and scenario analysis to forecast population responses to future environmental change. We found that habitat loss or conversion and reduced primary productivity (caused by rainfall declines) had greater effects on species' spatial and temporal population change than the range of fire and invasive predator (the red fox Vulpes vulpes) management actions observed in the study area. Scenario analysis revealed that a greater extent of severe fire and further rainfall declines predicted under climate change, operating in concert are likely to further reduce the abundance of these species, but may be mitigated partially by invasive predator control. Considering both historical and future drivers of population change is necessary to identify the factors that risk species recovery. Given that both anthropogenic pressures and environmental disturbances can undermine conservation efforts, managers must consider how the relative benefit of conservation actions will be shaped by ongoing global change.

Fire as a driver and mediator of predator-prey interactions.

Both fire and predators have strong influences on the population dynamics and behaviour of animals, and the effects of predators may either be strengthened or weakened by fire. However, knowledge of how fire drives or mediates predator-prey interactions is fragmented and has not been synthesised. Here, we review and synthesise knowledge of how fire influences predator and prey behaviour and interactions. We develop a conceptual model based on predator-prey theory and empirical examples to address four key questions: (i) how and why do predators respond to fire; (ii) how and why does prey vulnerability change post-fire; (iii) what mechanisms do prey use to reduce predation risk post-fire; and (iv) what are the outcomes of predator-fire interactions for prey populations? We then discuss these findings in the context of wildlife conservation and ecosystem management before outlining priorities for future research. Fire-induced changes in vegetation structure, resource availability, and animal behaviour influence predator-prey encounter rates, the amount of time prey are vulnerable during an encounter, and the conditional probability of prey death given an encounter. How a predator responds to fire depends on fire characteristics (e.g. season, severity), their hunting behaviour (ambush or pursuit predator), movement behaviour, territoriality, and intra-guild dynamics. Prey species that rely on habitat structure for avoiding predation often experience increased predation rates and lower survival in recently burnt areas. By contrast, some prey species benefit from the opening up of habitat after fire because it makes it easier to detect predators and to modify their behaviour appropriately. Reduced prey body condition after fire can increase predation risk either through impaired ability to escape predators, or increased need to forage in risky areas due to being energetically stressed. To reduce risk of predation in the post-fire environment, prey may change their habitat use, increase sheltering behaviour, change their movement behaviour, or use camouflage through cryptic colouring and background matching. Field experiments and population viability modelling show instances where fire either amplifies or does not amplify the impacts of predators on prey populations, and vice versa. In some instances, intense and sustained post-fire predation may lead to local extinctions of prey populations. Human disruption of fire regimes is impacting faunal communities, with consequences for predator and prey behaviour and population dynamics. Key areas for future research include: capturing data continuously before, during and after fires; teasing out the relative importance of changes in visibility and shelter availability in different contexts; documenting changes in acoustic and olfactory cues for both predators and prey; addressing taxonomic and geographic biases in the literature; and predicting and testing how changes in fire-regime characteristics reshape predator-prey interactions. Understanding and managing the consequences for predator-prey communities will be critical for effective ecosystem management and species conservation in this era of global change.

Animal mortality during fire.

Earth's rapidly warming climate is propelling us towards an increasingly fire-prone future. Currently, knowledge of the extent and characteristics of animal mortality rates during fire remains rudimentary, hindering our ability to predict how animal populations may be impacted in the future. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a global systematic review of the direct effects of fire on animal mortality rates, based on studies that unequivocally determined the fate of animals during fire. From 31 studies spanning 1984-2020, we extracted data on the direct impacts of fire on the mortality of 31 species from 23 families. From these studies, there were 43 instances where direct effects were measured by reporting animal survival from pre- to post-fire. Most studies were conducted in North America (52%) and Oceania (42%), focused largely on mammals (53%) and reptiles (30%), and reported mostly on animal survival in planned (82%) and/or low severity (70%) fires. We found no studies from Asia, Europe or South America. Although there were insufficient data to conduct a formal meta-analysis, we tested the effect of fire type, fire severity, fire regime, animal body mass, ecological attributes and class on survival. Only fire severity affected animal mortality, with a higher proportion of animals being killed by high than low severity fires. Recent catastrophic fires across the globe have drawn attention to the plight of animals exposed to wildfire. Yet, our systematic review suggests that a relatively low proportion of animals (mean predicted mortality [95% CI] = 3% [1%-9%]) are killed during fire. However, our review also underscores how little we currently know about the direct effects of fire on animal mortality, and highlights the critical need to understand the effects of high severity fire on animal populations.

Projecting biodiversity benefits of conservation behavior-change programs.

Biodiversity loss is driven by human behavior, but there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of behavior-change programs in delivering benefits to biodiversity. To demonstrate their value, the biodiversity benefits and cost-effectiveness of behavior changes that directly or indirectly affect biodiversity need to be quantified. We adapted a structured decision-making prioritization tool to determine the potential biodiversity benefits of behavior changes. As a case study, we examined two hypothetical behavior-change programs--wildlife gardening and cat containment--by asking experts to consider the behaviors associated with these programs that directly and indirectly affect biodiversity. We assessed benefits to southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus) and superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus) by eliciting from experts estimates of the probability of each species persisting in the landscape given a range of behavior-change scenarios in which uptake of the behaviors varied. We then compared these estimates to a business-as-usual scenario to determine the relative biodiversity benefit and cost-effectiveness of each scenario. Experts projected that the behavior-change programs would benefit biodiversity and that benefits would rise with increasing uptake of the target behaviors. Biodiversity benefits were also predicted to accrue through indirect behaviors, although experts disagreed about the magnitude of additional benefit provided. Scenarios that combined the two behavior-change programs were estimated to provide the greatest benefits to species and be most cost-effective. Our method could be used in other contexts and potentially at different scales and advances the use of prioritization tools to guide conservation behavior-change programs.

Proyección de los beneficios para la biodiversidad obtenidos de los programas de cambios de comportamiento de conservación Resumen La pérdida de la diversidad biológica es causada por el comportamiento humano, pero existe incertidumbre sobre la efectividad que tienen los programas de cambio de comportamiento para otorgar beneficios a la biodiversidad. Para demostrar el valor que poseen, los beneficios para la biodiversidad y la rentabilidad de los cambios de comportamiento que afectan directa o indirectamente a la biodiversidad necesitan ser cuantificados. Adaptamos una herramienta de priorización de toma de decisiones estructurada para determinar el potencial de los beneficios para la biodiversidad obtenidos de los cambios de comportamiento. Como estudio de caso, examinamos dos programas hipotéticos de cambio de comportamiento, la jardinería silvestre y la contención de gatos, mediante la petición a expertos de considerar los comportamientos asociados con estos programas que directa o indirectamente afectan a la biodiversidad. Evaluamos los beneficios para el bandicut café (Isoodon obeselus) y el reyezuelo supremo (Malurus cyaeneus) mediante la obtención de estimaciones de expertos de la probabilidad de que cada especie persista en el paisaje con una gama establecida de escenarios de cambios de comportamiento en los cuales la aceptación de los comportamientos varió. Después comparamos estas estimaciones con un escenario de situación normal para determinar el beneficio relativo para la biodiversidad y la rentabilidad de cada escenario. Los expertos proyectaron que los programas de cambio de comportamiento beneficiarían a la biodiversidad y que los beneficios aumentarían con la creciente aceptación de los comportamientos deseados. También se pronosticó que los beneficios se acumularían mediante comportamientos indirectos, aunque los expertos estuvieron en desacuerdo sobre la magnitud del beneficio adicional proporcionado. Se estimó que los escenarios que combinaron los dos programas de cambio de comportamiento proporcionarían el mayor beneficio para las especies y serían los más rentables. Nuestro método podría usarse en otros contextos y potencialmente a diferentes escalas y fomenta el uso de herramientas de priorización para orientar a los programas de cambios en el comportamiento de conservación.

A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications.

Applied ecology has traditionally approached management problems through a simplified, single-species lens. Repeated failures of single-species management have led us to a new paradigm - managing at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem management involves a complex array of interacting organisms, processes and scientific disciplines. Accounting for interactions, feedback loops and dependencies between ecosystem components is therefore fundamental to understanding and managing ecosystems. We provide an overview of the main types of ecosystem models and their uses, and discuss challenges related to modelling complex ecological systems. Existing modelling approaches typically attempt to do one or more of the following: describe and disentangle ecosystem components and interactions; make predictions about future ecosystem states; and inform decision making by comparing alternative strategies and identifying important uncertainties. Modelling ecosystems is challenging, particularly when balancing the desire to represent many components of an ecosystem with the limitations of available data and the modelling objective. Explicitly considering different forms of uncertainty is therefore a primary concern. We provide some recommended strategies (such as ensemble ecosystem models and multi-model approaches) to aid the explicit consideration of uncertainty while also meeting the challenges of modelling ecosystems.

Predator responses to fire: A global systematic review and meta-analysis.

Knowledge of how disturbances such as fire shape habitat structure and composition, and affect animal interactions, is fundamental to ecology and ecosystem management. Predators also exert strong effects on ecological communities, through top-down regulation of prey and competitors, which can result in trophic cascades. Despite their ubiquity, ecological importance and potential to interact with fire, our general understanding of how predators respond to fire remains poor, hampering ecosystem management. To address this important knowledge gap, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of fire on terrestrial, vertebrate predators world-wide. We found 160 studies spanning 1978-2018. There were 36 studies with sufficient information for meta-analysis, from which we extracted 96 effect sizes (Hedges' g) for 67 predator species relating to changes in abundance indices, occupancy or resource selection in burned and unburned areas, or before and after fire. Studies spanned geographic locations, taxonomic families and study designs, but most were located in North America and Oceania (59% and 24%, respectively), and largely focussed on felids (24%) and canids (25%). Half (50%) of the studies reported responses to wildfire, and nearly one third concerned prescribed (management) fires. There were no clear, general responses of predators to fire, nor relationships with geographic area, biome or life-history traits (e.g. body mass, hunting strategy and diet). Responses varied considerably between species. Analysis of species for which at least three effect sizes had been reported in the literature revealed that red foxes Vulpes vulpes mostly responded positively to fire (e.g. higher abundance in burned compared to unburned areas) and eastern racers Coluber constrictor negatively, with variances overlapping zero only slightly for both species. Our systematic review and meta-analysis revealed strong variation in predator responses to fire, and major geographic and taxonomic knowledge gaps. Varied responses of predator species to fire likely depend on ecosystem context. Consistent reporting of ongoing monitoring and management experiments is required to improve understanding of the mechanisms driving predator responses to fire, and any broader effects (e.g. trophic interactions). The divergent responses of species in our study suggest that adaptive, context-specific management of predator-fire relationships is required.