ABSTRACT
SO_SCPLOWUMMARYC_SCPLOWThe Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has increased mortality in countries worldwide. To evaluate the impact of the pandemic on mortality, excess mortality has been suggested rather than reported COVID-19 deaths. Excess mortality, however, requires estimation of mortality under non-pandemic conditions. Although many methods exist to forecast mortality, they are either complex to apply, require many sources of information, ignore serial correlation, and/or are influenced by historical excess mortality. We propose a linear mixed model that is easy to apply, requires only historical mortality data, allows for serial correlation, and down-weighs the influence of historical excess mortality. Appropriateness of the linear mixed model is evaluated with fit statistics and forecasting accuracy measures for Belgium and the Netherlands. Unlike the commonly used 5-year weekly average, the linear mixed model is forecasting the subject-specific mortality, and as a result improves the estimation of excess mortality for Belgium and the Netherlands.
ABSTRACT
The aim of this study was to develop a scientifically based Sanitary Risk Index (SRI), defined as an objective measure of the Salmonella seroprevalence in a pig herd based on the risk factors being present on the farm. Therefore, an observational epidemiological study was adopted to infer risk factors for the Salmonella seroprevalence of market pigs. A total of 204 Belgian farrow-to-finish pig herds were included in this cross-sectional study. The antibody titre to Salmonella in sera was analysed by means of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for an average of 58 finisher pigs on each farm. A detailed questionnaire, covering an extensive range of potential risk factors was completed by each participating pig producer. Pearson correlation coefficients between the average sample to positive ratio (S/P)-value of a herd and the within-herd proportion of seropositive pigs were high. Significant risk factors associated with the average S/P-value of a herd were identified by a general linear mixed model. Feeding of meal, providing wet feed, having a hygienic-lock facility, using boot baths, applying the strict all in/all out procedure, programming the temperature in the zone of thermal neutrality and disinfecting between batches were all associated with lower average S/P-values. Sampling in summer, using a clean downtime, decreasing floor space per animal as well as increasing herd size were related with higher average S/P-values. The SRI consists of the above-specified risk factors together with their relative weight. Determining the Salmonella risk of a new herd by the SRI is primarily based on the quantification of the farm specific risk factors present and results in an average S/P-value of the herd. The model was validated using a set of conventional farms. In conclusion, the SRI is a useful preliminary screening tool which forms the basis for targeted sampling but cannot replace the serological herd classification with regard to Salmonella prevalence.
