A comparison of statistical techniques for combining modeled and observed concentrations to create high-resolution ozone air quality surfaces.

Air quality surfaces representing pollutant concentrations across space and time are needed for many applications, including tracking trends and relating air quality to human and ecosystem health. The spatial and temporal characteristics of these surfaces may reveal new information about the associations between emissions, pollution levels, and human exposure and health outcomes that may not have been discernable before. This paper presents four techniques, ranging from simple to complex, to statistically combine observed and modeled daily maximum 8-hr ozone concentrations for a domain covering the greater New York State area for the summer of 2001. Cross-validation results indicate that, for the domain and time period studied, the simpler techniques (additive and multiplicative bias adjustment) perform as well as or better than the more complex techniques. However, the spatial analyses of the resulting ozone concentration surfaces revealed some problems with these simpler techniques in limited areas where the model exhibits difficulty in simulating the complex features such as those observed in the New York City area.

Modeling analyses of the effects of changes in nitrogen oxides emissions from the electric power sector on ozone levels in the eastern United States.

In this paper, we examine the changes in ambient ozone concentrations simulated by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for summer 2002 under three different nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission scenarios. Two emission scenarios represent best estimates of 2002 and 2004 emissions; they allow assessment of the impact of the NOx emissions reductions imposed on the utility sector by the NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call. The third scenario represents a hypothetical rendering of what NOx emissions would have been in 2002 if no emission controls had been imposed on the utility sector. Examination of the modeled median and 95th percentile daily maximum 8-hr average ozone concentrations reveals that median ozone levels estimated for the 2004 emission scenario were less than those modeled for 2002 in the region most affected by the NOx SIP Call. Comparison of the "no-control" with the "2002" scenario revealed that ozone concentrations would have been much higher in much of the eastern United States if the utility sector had not implemented NOx emission controls; exceptions occurred in the immediate vicinity of major point sources where increased NO titration tends to lower ozone levels.