Self-perception of fracture risk: what can it tell us?

In this study, we report that self-perception of fracture risk captures some aspect of fracture risk not currently measured using conventional fracture prediction tools and is associated with improved medication uptake. It suggests that adequate appreciation of fracture risk may be beneficial and lead to greater healthcare engagement and treatment. INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to assess how well self-perception of fracture risk, and fracture risk as estimated by the fracture prediction tool FRAX, related to fracture incidence and uptake and persistence of anti-osteoporosis medication among women participating in the Global Longitudinal study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW). METHODS: GLOW is an international cohort study involving 723 physician practices across 10 countries in Europe, North America and Australia. Aged ≥ 55 years, 60,393 women completed baseline questionnaires detailing medical history, including co-morbidities, fractures and self-perceived fracture risk (SPR). Annual follow-up included self-reported incident fractures and anti-osteoporosis medication (AOM) use. We calculated FRAX risk without bone mineral density measurement. RESULTS: Of the 39,241 women with at least 1 year of follow-up data, 2132 (5.4%) sustained an incident major osteoporotic fracture over 5 years of follow-up. Within each SPR category, risk of fracture increased as the FRAX categorisation of risk increased. In GLOW, only 11% of women with a lower baseline SPR were taking AOM at baseline, compared with 46% of women with a higher SPR. AOM use tended to increase in the years after a reported fracture. However, women with a lower SPR who were fractured still reported lower AOM rates than women with or without a fracture but had a higher SPR. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that SPR captures some aspect of fracture risk not currently measured using conventional fracture prediction tools and is also associated with improved medication uptake.

Use of pharmacologic agents for the primary prevention of osteoporosis among older women with low bone mass.

UNLABELLED: We examined the use of pharmacologic agents for the primary prevention of osteoporosis among older women with osteopenia. We found that these individuals were not managed in concordance with the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) guidelines and that self-perceived osteoporosis risk and lower bone density were strongly associated with receipt of treatment. INTRODUCTION: Although osteoporosis medications are used for the primary prevention of osteoporosis among persons with low bone mass (osteopenia), their use may be discordant with clinical practice guidelines. METHODS: We studied women 55 years and older participating in the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW). Eligible participants had a dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) test performed at the University of Alabama at Birmingham hospital and had an osteopenia diagnosis based on their DXA test results. Participants' demographics, fracture risk factors, and exposure to osteoporosis medications were determined from the GLOW survey. We examined the proportions of women managed in concordance with the National Osteoporosis Foundation 2008 guidelines, and we assessed factors independently associated with osteoporosis treatment decisions. Women with a prior spine or hip fracture were excluded. RESULTS: Among 597 eligible women from GLOW, the mean age ± standard deviation (SD) was 70 ± 7 years. Among all subjects, 309 (52%) were treated in concordance with the NOF 2008 guidelines. Greater self-perceived osteoporosis risk and lower bone mineral density were significantly and consistently associated with receipt of osteoporosis treatment, both for those considered appropriate and for those considered inappropriate for treatment based on the NOF guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: We found significant discordance between NOF 2008 guidelines and pharmacologic management of women with osteopenia. A person's self-perceived osteoporosis risk and bone mineral density were most strongly associated with receipt of osteoporosis medication use among women with low bone mass.

Non-hip, non-spine fractures drive healthcare utilization following a fracture: the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW).

UNLABELLED: We evaluated healthcare utilization associated with treating fracture types in >51,000 women aged ≥55 years. Over the course of 1 year, there were five times more non-hip, non-spine fractures than hip or spine fractures, resulting in twice as many days of hospitalization and rehabilitation/nursing home care for non-hip, non-spine fractures. INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study is to evaluate medical healthcare utilization associated with treating several types of fractures in women ≥55 years from various geographic regions. METHODS: Information from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) was collected via self-administered patient questionnaires at baseline and year 1 (n = 51,491). Self-reported clinically recognized low-trauma fractures at year 1 were classified as incident spine, hip, wrist/hand, arm/shoulder, pelvis, rib, leg, and other fractures. Healthcare utilization data were self-reported and included whether the fracture was treated at a doctor's office/clinic or at a hospital. Patients were asked if they had undergone surgery or been treated at a rehabilitation center or nursing home. RESULTS: During 1-year follow-up, there were 195 spine, 134 hip, and 1,654 non-hip, non-spine fractures. Clinical vertebral fractures resulted in 617 days of hospitalization and 512 days of rehabilitation/nursing home care; hip fractures accounted for 1,306 days of hospitalization and 1,650 days of rehabilitation/nursing home care. Non-hip, non-spine fractures resulted in 3,805 days in hospital and 5,186 days of rehabilitation/nursing home care. CONCLUSIONS: While hip and vertebral fractures are well recognized for their associated increase in health resource utilization, non-hip, non-spine fractures, by virtue of their 5-fold greater number, require significantly more healthcare resources.

Burden of non-hip, non-vertebral fractures on quality of life in postmenopausal women: the Global Longitudinal study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW).

UNLABELLED: Among 50,461 postmenopausal women, 1,822 fractures occurred (57% minor non-hip, non-vertebral [NHNV], 26% major NHNV, 10% spine, 7% hip) over 1 year. Spine fractures had the greatest detrimental effect on EQ-5D, followed by major NHNV and hip fractures. Decreases in physical function and health status were greatest for spine or hip fractures. INTRODUCTION: There is growing evidence that NHNV fractures result in substantial morbidity and healthcare costs. The aim of this prospective study was to assess the effect of these NHNV fractures on quality of life. METHODS: We analyzed the 1-year incidences of hip, spine, major NHNV (pelvis/leg, shoulder/arm) and minor NHNV (wrist/hand, ankle/foot, rib/clavicle) fractures among women from the Global Longitudinal study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW). Health-related quality of life (HRQL) was analyzed using the EuroQol EQ-5D tool and the SF-36 health survey. RESULTS: Among 50,461 women analyzed, there were 1,822 fractures (57% minor NHNV, 26% major NHNV, 10% spine, 7% hip) over 1 year. Spine fractures had the greatest detrimental effect on EQ-5D summary scores, followed by major NHNV and hip fractures. The number of women with mobility problems increased most for those with major NHNV and spine fractures (both +8%); spine fractures were associated with the largest increases in problems with self care (+11%), activities (+14%), and pain/discomfort (+12%). Decreases in physical function and health status were greatest for those with spine or hip fractures. Multivariable modeling found that EQ-5D reduction was greatest for spine fractures, followed by hip and major/minor NHNV. Statistically significant reductions in SF-36 physical function were found for spine fractures, and were borderline significant for major NHNV fractures. CONCLUSION: This prospective study shows that NHNV fractures have a detrimental effect on HRQL. Efforts to optimize the care of osteoporosis patients should include the prevention of NHNV fractures.

Are existing measures of overall diet quality associated with peak bone mass in young premenopausal women?

BACKGROUND: Low peak bone mass in young adulthood is associated with an increased risk of osteoporosis and fracture after menopause, and an understanding of the modifiable factors that contribute to low peak bone mass is important for fracture prevention. Diet is an important modifiable factor linked to bone health and, although studies have examined the role of individual dietary components in bone health, bone growth and maintenance are complex processes, and such studies may not adequately represent the role of diet in these processes. METHODS: To address this issue, a cross-sectional analysis of 226 healthy, premenopausal women aged 18-30 years was conducted to determine whether existing indices of overall diet quality are associated with bone density in premenopausal women nearing peak bone mass. Bone density was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and diet quality was measured using two overall diet scores based on current dietary guidelines: the Recommended Food Score and the Alternate Healthy Eating Index (AHEI). RESULTS: In the multiple linear regression, bone density did not increase across quartiles of either diet quality score and was not associated with continuous diet quality variables. Furthermore, none of the individual AHEI components (e.g. fruit intake, vegetable intake) were associated with bone density. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that existing diet quality scores are not appropriate for studies of peak bone mass, most likely because they do not give sufficient weight to foods and nutrients important to bone health. We recommend the development of a diet pattern index that better predicts bone mass measures.

Failure to perceive increased risk of fracture in women 55 years and older: the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW).

UNLABELLED: We compared self-perception of fracture risk with actual risk among 60,393 postmenopausal women aged ≥55 years, using data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW). Most postmenopausal women with risk factors failed to appreciate their actual risk for fracture. Improved education about osteoporosis risk factors is needed. INTRODUCTION: This study seeks to compare self-perception of fracture risk with actual risk among postmenopausal women using data from GLOW. METHODS: GLOW is an international, observational, cohort study involving 723 physician practices in 17 sites in ten countries in Europe, North America, and Australia. Participants included 60,393 women ≥55 years attended by their physician during the previous 24 months. The sample was enriched so that two thirds were ≥65 years. Baseline surveys were mailed October 2006 to February 2008. Main outcome measures were self-perception of fracture risk in women with elevated risk vs women of the same age and frequency of risk factors for fragility fracture. RESULTS: In the overall study population, 19% (10,951/58,434) of women rated their risk of fracture as a little/much higher than that of women of the same age; 46% (27,138/58,434) said it was similar; 35% (20,345/58,434) believed it to be a little/much lower. Among women whose actual risk was increased based on the presence of any one of seven risk factors for fracture, the proportion who recognized their increased risk ranged from 19% for smokers to 39% for current users of glucocorticoid medication. Only 33% (4,185/12,612) of those with ≥2 risk factors perceived themselves as being at higher risk. Among women reporting a diagnosis of osteopenia or osteoporosis, only 25% and 43%, respectively, thought their risk was increased. CONCLUSION: In this international, observational study, most postmenopausal women with risk factors failed to appreciate their actual risk for fracture.

The Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW): rationale and study design.

SUMMARY: The Global Longitudinal study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) is a prospective cohort study involving 723 physicians and 60,393 women subjects >or=55 years. The data will provide insights into the management of fracture risk in older women over 5 years, patient experience with prevention and treatment, and distribution of risk among older women on an international basis. INTRODUCTION: Data from cohort studies describing the distribution of osteoporosis-related fractures and risk factors are not directly comparable and do not compare regional differences in patterns of patient management and fracture outcomes. METHODS: The GLOW is a prospective, multinational, observational cohort study. Practices typical of each region were identified through primary care networks organized for administrative, research, or educational purposes. Noninstitutionalized patients visiting each practice within the previous 2 years were eligible. Self-administered questionnaires were mailed, with 2:1 oversampling of women >or=65 years. Follow-up questionnaires will be sent at 12-month intervals for 5 years. RESULTS: A total of 723 physicians at 17 sites in ten countries agreed to participate. Baseline surveys were mailed (October 2006 to February 2008) to 140,416 subjects. After the exclusion of 3,265 women who were ineligible or had died, 60,393 agreed to participate. CONCLUSIONS: GLOW will provide contemporary information on patterns of management of fracture risk in older women over a 5-year period. The collection of data in a similar manner in ten countries will permit comparisons of patient experience with prevention and treatment and provide insights into the distribution of risk among older women on an international basis.

Fracture risk and antiresorptive medication use in older women in the USA.

UNLABELLED: Risk of fragility fractures in older women appears to be under-recognized and under treated. Analysis of a national sample of older US women reveals that over 5 million are at high risk of fracture; only one third of these report being told they have osteoporosis and one quarter are receiving appropriate treatment. INTRODUCTION: Substantial numbers of older women in the United States suffer fragility fractures each year. Although risk for these fractures can be readily identified from clinical characteristics, many women may not be receiving treatments demonstrated to reduce risk. Our objective was to estimate the extent of fracture risk among older white US women and assess patterns of use of pharmacologic agents in response to that risk. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for 1999-2000 and 2001-2002 were combined to enumerate risk factors for fracture and use of antiresorptive prescription medications for all white women 65 years of age and older. The FRACTURE Index (FI), developed from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), which combines subjects' characteristics to estimate five-year fracture risk, was applied to these national data. RESULTS: Of more than 15 million US women in this age group almost 40% have one risk factor in addition to age that predisposes to fracture; 20% have two or more. More than 5 million women are in the highest category of FI risk; 26% of these will have a nonvertebral fracture and 10% will have a vertebral fracture in the next five years. Antiresorptive medications are being taken by less than 50% of women in most risk categories when all antiresorptives, including estrogen replacement, are included; only 17% of older women who have sustained a prior fracture and 13% in the highest category of FI risk are receiving agents specifically intended to reduce bone loss. CONCLUSIONS: Millions of older US women are at high risk for fragility fractures. Levels of treatment with antiresorptive medications are low and are not commensurate with fracture risk.

Trends in hospital care for hip fractures.

UNLABELLED: To assess the impact of the aging population on the occurrence of fragility fractures, we examined hospital discharges for hip fracture among U.S. women and men aged 45 years and older from 1993 through to 2003. The number of hospitalizations declined by 5%, and age-adjusted rates fell by over 20% for both women and men during this period. INTRODUCTION: Although the aging of the population should mean an increasing burden of fragility fractures, several recently published reports suggest regional declines in the incidence of hip fracture. We investigated trends in hospital discharges and utilization for hip fractures across the USA from 1993 to 2003. METHODS: Hospital discharges from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 1993 through to 2003 were analyzed for numbers of primary diagnosis of hip fracture and associated average length of stay (LOS) and charges among women and men aged 45 years and older. Age-specific rates were constructed using national census data. RESULTS: Over the 11-year study period the number of hospitalizations for hip fractures decreased by 5%, from 296,000 to 281,000. The numbers of discharges declined by 16,600 (7.4%) for women and increased by 1900 (2.6%) among men. However, age-adjusted rates for both women and men fell by about 20%. Average hospital LOS was reduced by about 35% for both sexes, resulting in decreases in days of care of 42 and 33% for women and men, respectively. At the same time, average inflation-adjusted charges for each hospitalization grew by 35% for women and 38% for men, and increasing proportions of patients were discharged to continuing institutional care. During the study interval the total number of prescriptions per year for bisphosphonate anti-resorptive agents grew from under 0.5 to 30 million. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the increasing size of the older segment of the U.S. population, hospitalizations for hip fractures are not increasing. With declining lengths of stay there has been a reduced demand on hospital resources, although with average charges per hospitalization rising and more patients being discharged to other institutions for continuing care the economic consequences of hip fracture continue to increase.

A simple clinical score for estimating the long-term risk of fracture in post-menopausal women.

BACKGROUND: Simple tools are needed to identify patients at high risk of fracture. AIM: To develop a simple clinical tool for assessing 5-year risk of fracture. DESIGN: Cohort study. METHODS: The study population consisted of all women aged 50+ included in the THIN Research Database (containing computerized medical records of UK general practices). Using Cox proportional hazards models, a risk score was initially estimated from age, body mass index, and clinical risk factors. The 5-year risk of fracture (survival function) was estimated for each score. RESULTS: The study population included 366 104 women aged > or = 50 years (mean follow-up 5.8 years). Of these, 6453 suffered a hip fracture. Several characteristics independently contributed to the fracture risk score (age, body mass index, fracture and fall history, previous diagnoses and use of medication). The 5-year risks for hip fracture for patients with total scores of 10, 30 and 50 were 0.3% (95%CI 0.3-0.4%), 2.2% (95%CI 2.1-2.2%), and 13.1% (95%CI 12.5-13.7%), respectively. A woman aged 65 years with low BMI and a history of both fracture and falling would have a hip fracture risk score of 37, with a corresponding 5-year risk for a hip fracture of 4.1% (4.0-4.2%). The risk score was validated and tested in another population (from GPRD), with a good concurrence between predicted and observed risks of fracture. DISCUSSION: This risk score predicts the long-term risk of fracture, and could be used for targeting patients for further investigation, such as bone densitometry.

Hospital care of osteoporosis-related vertebral fractures.

Resource implications of hospitalization for osteoporosis-related vertebral fracture are sparsely documented. This study utilized data abstracted from a national sample of hospitalized patients to identify characteristics of patients who are hospitalized with vertebral fracture and their patterns of resource utilization. These were compared with patterns observed for hip fracture hospitalizations. Data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) for 1997 were used to identify men and women age 45 years and above who had a primary diagnosis of vertebral fracture. After patients whose fractures might have been due to metastatic cancer or severe trauma were excluded, 68,901 individuals hospitalized for vertebral fracture were identified. Seventy-seven percent of these were women, most were white, 75 years and older, and had multiple comorbid diagnoses. Total charges averaged 8000-10,000 US dollars per hospitalization and were higher in men. Mean length of stay was just under 6 days and more than 50% of discharged patients required some form of continuing care. Hospitalizations for vertebral fracture occurred at only one-fourth the rate of those for hip fracture, and created only half the hospital charges per admission. Vertebral fracture accounted for over 400,000 total hospital days and generated charges in excess of 500 million US dollars. This resource impact is considerably higher than has been described in prior studies.

Recognition of vertebral fracture in a clinical setting.

Osteoporosis-related vertebral fractures have important health consequences for older individuals, including disability and increased mortality. Because these fractures can be prevented with appropriate medications, recognition and treatment of high-risk patients is warranted. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in a large, regional hospital in New England to examine the frequency with which vertebral fractures are identified and treated by clinicians in a population of hospitalized older women who have radiographic evidence of fractures. The study population consisted of 934 women aged 60 years and older who were hospitalized between October 1, 1995 and March 31, 1997, and who had a chest radiograph obtained. Vertebral fractures in the thoracic region were identified by two radiologists. Discharge diagnoses, medical record notes and radiology reports were compared with the results of the radiologists' readings to determine the frequency with which fractures were identified and appropriate, osteoporosis-preventing medications prescribed. Moderate or severe vertebral fractures were identified for 132 (14.1%) study subjects, but only 17 (1.8%) of the 934 participants had a discharge diagnosis of vertebral fracture. Of these 132, only 17% had fracture noted in the medical record or discharge summary; 50% of contemporaneous radiology reports identified a fracture as present; and 23% of the time it was found in the radiologist's summary impression. Only 18% of medical records indicated that fracture patients had been prescribed calcium, vitamin D, estrogen replacement or an antiresorptive agent. Relatively few hospitalized older women with radiographically demonstrated vertebral fractures were thus identified or treated by clinicians, suggesting a need for improved recognition.

Medicare treatment differences for blacks and whites.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated racial differences in procedure use among elderly Medicare beneficiaries. It is hypothesized that providers do not discriminate inappropriately in treating black and white patients and that the apparent differences in black-white treatment could be attributed to other differences between the two populations. METHODS: Rates of use for selected procedures were examined among two patient groups: (1) the universe of Medicare beneficiaries in 10 states and the District of Columbia and (2) a subset of this sample created by matching beneficiaries on the basis of zip code of residence to neutralize the effects of black-white differences in provider access and regional practice patterns. Because all Medicare beneficiaries have a common core of standard benefits, the importance of financial access differences in accounting for black/white utilization differences is diminished. RESULTS: Three major findings were indicated from this study: (1) area-controlled comparisons find even larger black-white disparities than those shown from uncontrolled comparisons, (2) the disparities are larger in southern states, and (3) the disparities vary substantially with procedure cost. CONCLUSIONS: Although no clinical data were analyzed, providers appeared to be giving less intensive treatment to otherwise similar black Medicare beneficiaries.

Changes in the use of diagnostic technologies among Medicare patients, 1985 and 1990.

This paper examines changes in the use of selected diagnostic technologies for Medicare patients in 1985 and 1990. The analysis compares patients across five common, medical tracer conditions: acute myocardial infarction (AMI), congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, pneumonia, and gastrointestinal (GI) hemorrhage. The relationship of hospital characteristics to patterns of technology use was assessed by grouping hospitals by a composite measure of "costliness." The overall use of 21 diagnostic tests rose by 27% over the 5-year period. Increases were most marked among the three cardiovascular tracers and for related technologies, such as cardiac angiography and cardiac ultrasound. There was evidence that newer technologies partially replaced older diagnostic tests that were used for similar indications: rates of noninvasive cerebrovascular imaging rose while rates of cerebral angiography declined. However, for several common, long-established tests, such as electrocardiogram and chest radiograph, there were consistent increases that are unexplained. High-cost hospitals performed diagnostic tests at much higher rates than lower-cost hospitals in both 1985 and 1990, but the rate of increase in test use across the two study years was generally greater for the lower-cost hospitals.

Mortality probability models for patients in the intensive care unit for 48 or 72 hours: a prospective, multicenter study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop models in the Mortality Probability Model (MPM II) system to estimate the probability of hospital mortality at 48 and 72 hrs in the intensive care unit (ICU), and to test whether the 24-hr Mortality Probability Model (MPM24), developed for use at 24 hrs in the ICU, can be used on a daily basis beyond 24 hrs. DESIGN: A prospective, multicenter study to develop and validate models, using a cohort of consecutive admissions. SETTING: Six adult medical and surgical ICUs in Massachusetts and New York adjusted to reflect 137 ICUs in 12 countries. PATIENTS: Consecutive admissions (n = 6,290) to the Massachusetts/New York ICUs were studied. Of these patients, 3,023 and 2,233 patients remained in the ICU and had complete data at 48 and 72 hrs, respectively. Patients < 18 yrs of age, burn patients, coronary care patients, and cardiac surgical patients were excluded. OUTCOME MEASURE: Vital status at the time of hospital discharge. RESULTS: The models consist of five variables measured at the time of ICU admission and eight variables ascertained at 24-hr intervals. The 24-hr model demonstrated poor calibration and discrimination at 48 and 72 hrs. The newly developed 48- and 72-hr models--MPM48 and MPM72--contain the same 13 variables and coefficients as the MPM24. The models differ only in their constant terms, which increase in a manner that reflects the increasing probability of mortality with increasing length of stay in the ICU. These constant terms were adjusted by a factor determined from the relationship between the data from the six Massachusetts and New York ICUs and a more extensive data set, from which the ICU admission Mortality Probability Model (MPM0) and MPM24 were developed. This latter data set was assembled from ICUs in 12 countries. The MPM48 and MPM72 calibrated and discriminated well, based on goodness-of-fit tests and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. CONCLUSIONS: Models developed for use among ICU patients at one time period are not transferable without modification to other time periods. The MPM48 and MPM72 calibrated well to their respective time periods, and they are intended for use at specific points in time. The increasing constant terms and associated increase in the probability of hospital mortality exemplify a common clinical adage that if a patient's clinical profile stays the same, he or she is actually getting worse.

A method for assessing the clinical performance and cost-effectiveness of intensive care units: a multicenter inception cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To present an approach for assessing intensive care unit (ICU) performance which takes into account both economic and clinical performance while adjusting for severity of illness. To present a graphic display which permits comparisons among a group of hospitals. DESIGN: A multicenter, inception cohort study. SETTING: Twenty-five ICUs in U.S. hospitals that participated in the European and North American Study of Severity Systems for ICU Patients. PATIENTS: Consecutive patients (n = 3,397) admitted to ICUs in participating hospitals between September 30, 1991 and December 27, 1991. Excluded were coronary care patients, burn patients, cardiac surgery patients and patients aged < 18 yrs. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The clinical performance index is the difference between observed hospital survival rate and survival rate predicted by the Mortality Probability Model measuring severity of illness at ICU admission. The economic performance (resource use) measure is a length of stay index, Weighted Hospital Days, which weights ICU days more heavily than non-ICU days. The economic performance index is the difference between actual mean resource use and the resource use predicted by a regression including severity of illness and percent of surgical patients. Both the clinical and economic performance indices are standardized to show how far a particular hospital is from the overall mean and are graphed together. Most of the 25 hospitals lie within 1 SD of the mean on both clinical and economic performance scales. The graph makes it easy to identify those hospitals that are outside this range. There is no evidence of a trade-off between high clinical performance and high economic performance; i.e., it is possible to achieve both. CONCLUSIONS: Cross-indexing of clinical and economic ICU performance is easy to calculate. It has potential as a research and evaluation tool used by physicians, hospital administrators, payers, and others.

Evaluating worksite health programs.

Worksite health enhancement programs utilize screening and early disease detection or risk reduction as health promotion activities. Objectives for these include improving the health and productivity of employees and reducing health care costs. However, critical questions about the effectiveness of programs should be answered before managers initiate these activities. Issues include accuracy of measurement and subject classification, adequate use of comparisons and follow-up in evaluation studies, and evidence of cost effectiveness.

Mortality Probability Models (MPM II) based on an international cohort of intensive care unit patients.

OBJECTIVE: To revise and update models in the Mortality Probability Model (MPM II) system to estimate the probability of hospital mortality among 19,124 intensive care unit (ICU) patients that can be used for quality assessment within and among ICUs. DESIGN AND SETTING: Models developed and validated on consecutive admissions to adult medical and surgical ICUs in 12 countries. PATIENTS: A total of 12,610 patients for model development, 6514 patients for model validation. Patients younger than 18 years and burn, coronary care, and cardiac surgery patients were excluded. OUTCOME MEASURE: Vital status at hospital discharge. RESULTS: The admission model, MPM0, contains 15 readily obtainable variables. In developmental and validation samples it calibrated well (goodness-of-fit tests: P = .623 and P = .327, respectively, where a high P value represents good fit between observed and expected values) and discriminated well (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.837 and 0.824, respectively). The 24-hour model, MPM24 (developed on 10,357 patients still in the ICU at 24 hours), contains five of the admission variables and eight additional variables easily ascertained at 24 hours. It also calibrated well (P = .764 and P = .231 in the developmental and validation samples, respectively) and discriminated well (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.844 and 0.836 in the developmental and validation samples, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Among severity systems for intensive care patients, the MPM0 is the only model available for use at ICU admission. Both MPM0 and MPM24 are useful research tools and provide important clinical information when used alone or together.

Resource utilization among intensive care patients. Managed care vs traditional insurance.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable evidence that members of managed care organizations use fewer hospital resources than patients covered by traditional health insurance. While intensive care might seem to be an unlikely setting for such differences to exist, the relationship between health coverage and use of intensive care has not been examined. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of consecutive intensive care unit admissions at a regional tertiary care teaching hospital. Patients in managed care plans (n = 159) and with traditional insurance (n = 389) were compared with respect to length of stay, hospital charges, charges for specific services, and use of mechanical ventilation. The analysis controlled for severity of illness, as measured by the Mortality Probability Model, case mix, and mortality. The whole sample as well as subsamples representing medical, emergency surgery, and elective surgery patients were examined. RESULTS: The managed care group, on average, had short stays (both hospital and intensive care unit), lower charges, and less use of mechanical ventilation than the traditionally insured group. Average differences of about 30% to 40% were observed. The finding held for the whole sample as well as the medical and emergency surgery subsamples. The differences were more pronounced in the patients with lowest severity of illness. CONCLUSION: Even in a setting where there would appear to be relatively little room for discretion in treatment decisions, incentives associated with type of health insurance seemed to affect resource use.