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2.
Circulation ; 104(22): 2660-5, 2001 Nov 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11723015

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Post Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Trial, designed to compare the effects of two lipid-lowering regimens and low-dose anticoagulation versus placebo on progression of atherosclerosis in saphenous vein grafts of patients who had had CABG surgery, demonstrated that aggressive lowering of LDL cholesterol levels to a mean yearly cholesterol level from 93 to 97 mg/dL compared with a moderate reduction to a level of 132 to 136 mg/dL decreased the progression of atherosclerosis in saphenous vein grafts. Low-dose anticoagulation did not affect progression. This secondary analysis tested the hypothesis that a similar decrease in progression of atherosclerosis would also be present in native coronary arteries as measured in the left main coronary artery (LMCA). METHODS AND RESULTS: A sample of 402 patients was randomly selected from 1102 patients who had baseline and follow-up views of the LMCA suitable for analysis. Patients treated with the aggressive lipid-lowering strategy had less progression of atherosclerosis in the LMCA as measured by changes in minimum (P=0.0003) lumen diameter or the maximum percent stenosis (P=0.001), or the presence of substantial progression (P=0.008), or vascular occlusion (P=0.005) when compared with the moderate strategy. CONCLUSIONS: A strategy of aggressive lipid lowering results in significantly less atherosclerosis progression than a moderate approach in LMCAs.


Subject(s)
Anticholesteremic Agents/therapeutic use , Coronary Artery Bypass , Coronary Artery Disease/diagnosis , Coronary Artery Disease/therapy , Coronary Vessels/drug effects , Anticoagulants/therapeutic use , Cholesterol, LDL/blood , Cholestyramine Resin/therapeutic use , Coronary Angiography , Coronary Artery Disease/blood , Coronary Vessels/surgery , Disease Progression , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Lipids/blood , Lovastatin/therapeutic use , Male , Middle Aged , Postoperative Period , Saphenous Vein/transplantation , Treatment Outcome
3.
Science ; 290(5497): 1786-9, 2000 Dec 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11099421

ABSTRACT

Although frontal cortex is thought to be important in controlling behavior across long periods of time, most studies of this area concentrate on neuronal responses instantaneously relevant to the current task. In order to investigate the relationship of frontal activity to behavior over longer time periods, we trained rhesus monkeys on a difficult oculomotor task. Their performance fluctuated during the day, and the activity of prefrontal neurons, even measured while the monkeys waited for the targets to appear at the beginning of each set of trials, correlated with performance in a probabilistic rather than a determinist manner: neurons reflected past or predicted future performance, much more than they reflected current performance. We suggest that this activity is related to processes such as arousal or motivation that set the tone for behavior rather than controlling it on a millisecond basis, and could result from ascending pathways that utilize slow, second-messenger synaptic processes.


Subject(s)
Neurons/physiology , Prefrontal Cortex/physiology , Psychomotor Performance , Afferent Pathways/physiology , Animals , Behavior, Animal , Cues , Forecasting , Learning , Macaca mulatta , Neuropsychological Tests , Probability , Second Messenger Systems
4.
J Am Coll Cardiol ; 36(6): 1877-83, 2000 Nov 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11092659

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The study was done to assess patients in the Post-Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (Post-CABG) trial to determine prognostic factors for atherosclerosis progression. BACKGROUND: Saphenous vein grafts (SVGs) are effective in relieving angina and, in certain patient subsets, in prolonging life. However, the progression of atherosclerosis in many of these grafts limits their usefulness. METHODS: The Post-CABG trial studied moderate versus aggressive lipid-lowering and low-dose warfarin versus placebo in patients with a history of coronary artery bypass surgery and found that more aggressive lipid lowering was effective in preventing progression of atherosclerosis in SVGs, but warfarin had no effect. Using variables measured at baseline, we sought the independent prognostic factors for atherosclerosis progression in SVGs, employing the statistical method of generalized estimating equations with a logit-link function. RESULTS: Twelve independent prognostic factors for atherosclerosis progression were found. In the order of their importance they were: maximum stenosis of the graft at baseline angiography, years post-SVG placement; the moderate low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering strategy; prior myocardial infarction; high triglyceride level; small minimum graft diameter; low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C); high LDL-C; high mean arterial pressure; low ejection fraction; male gender; and current smoking. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified Post-CABG patient and SVG characteristics associated with saphenous vein graft atherosclerosis progression. These data provide a basis for rational risk factor management to prevent progression of SVG atherosclerosis.


Subject(s)
Coronary Artery Bypass , Coronary Artery Disease/surgery , Saphenous Vein/transplantation , Aged , Disease Progression , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Postoperative Period , Prognosis , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
5.
Control Clin Trials ; 21(5): 415-27, 2000 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11018560

ABSTRACT

The characteristics of scientific fraud and its impact on medical research are in general not well known. However, the interest in the phenomenon has increased steadily during the last decade. Biostatisticians routinely work closely with physicians and scientists in many branches of medical research and have therefore unique insight into data. In addition, they have methodological competence to detect fraud and could be expected to have a professional interest in valid results. Biostatisticians therefore are likely to provide reliable information on the characteristics of fraud in medical research. The objective of this survey of biostatisticians, who were members of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, was to assess the characteristics of fraud in medical research. The survey was performed between April and July 1998. The participation rate was only 37%. We report the results because a majority (51%) of the participants knew about fraudulent projects, and many did not know whether the organization they work for has a formal system for handling suspected fraud or not. Different forms of fraud (e.g., fabrication and falsification of data, deceptive reporting of results, suppression of data, and deceptive design or analysis) had been observed in fairly similar numbers. We conclude that fraud is not a negligible phenomenon in medical research, and that increased awareness of the forms in which it is expressed seems appropriate. Further research, however, is needed to assess the prevalence of different types of fraud, as well as its impact on the validity of results published in the medical literature.


Subject(s)
Biometry , Research , Scientific Misconduct , Data Collection , Scientific Misconduct/trends
6.
Circulation ; 102(2): 157-65, 2000 Jul 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10889125

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Post Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Trial, designed to compare the effects of 2 lipid-lowering regimens and low-dose anticoagulation versus placebo on progression of atherosclerosis in saphenous vein grafts of patients who had had CABG surgery, demonstrated that aggressive lowering of LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) levels to <100 mg/dL compared with a moderate reduction to 132 to 136 mg/dL decreased the progression of atherosclerosis in grafts. Low-dose anticoagulation did not significantly affect progression. METHODS AND RESULTS: Approximately 3 years after the last trial visit, Clinical Center Coordinators contacted each patient by telephone to ascertain the occurrence of cardiovascular events and procedures. The National Death Index was used to ascertain vital status for patients who could not be contacted. Vital status was established for all but 3 of 1351 patients. Information on nonfatal events was available for 95% of surviving patients. A 30% reduction in revascularization procedures and 24% reduction in a composite clinical end point were observed in patients assigned to aggressive strategy compared with patients assigned to moderate strategy during 7.5 years of follow-up, P=0. 0006 and 0.001, respectively. Reductions of 35% in deaths and 31% in deaths or myocardial infarctions with low-dose anticoagulation compared with placebo were also observed, P=0.008 and 0.003, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: -The long-term clinical benefit observed during extended follow-up in patients assigned to the aggressive strategy is consistent with the angiographic findings of delayed atherosclerosis progression in grafts observed during the trial. The apparent long-term benefit of low-dose warfarin remains unexplained.


Subject(s)
Anticholesteremic Agents/administration & dosage , Anticoagulants/administration & dosage , Coronary Artery Bypass , Coronary Disease/drug therapy , Coronary Disease/surgery , Warfarin/administration & dosage , Adult , Aged , Cholesterol, LDL/blood , Coronary Disease/mortality , Double-Blind Method , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Life Tables , Middle Aged , Myocardial Infarction/drug therapy , Myocardial Infarction/mortality , Myocardial Infarction/surgery , Treatment Outcome
7.
Stat Med ; 18(24): 3435-51, 1999 Dec 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10611617

ABSTRACT

Recent cases of fraud in clinical trials have attracted considerable media attention, but relatively little reaction from the biostatistical community. In this paper we argue that biostatisticians should be involved in preventing fraud (as well as unintentional errors), detecting it, and quantifying its impact on the outcome of clinical trials. We use the term 'fraud' specifically to refer to data fabrication (making up data values) and falsification (changing data values). Reported cases of such fraud involve cheating on inclusion criteria so that ineligible patients can enter the trial, and fabricating data so that no requested data are missing. Such types of fraud are partially preventable through a simplification of the eligibility criteria and through a reduction in the amount of data requested. These two measures are feasible and desirable in a surprisingly large number of clinical trials, and neither of them in any way jeopardizes the validity of the trial results. With regards to detection of fraud, a brute force approach has traditionally been used, whereby the participating centres undergo extensive monitoring involving up to 100 per cent verification of their case records. The cost-effectiveness of this approach seems highly debatable, since one could implement quality control through random sampling schemes, as is done in fields other than clinical medicine. Moreover, there are statistical techniques available (but insufficiently used) to detect 'strange' patterns in the data including, but no limited to, techniques for studying outliers, inliers, overdispersion, underdispersion and correlations or lack thereof. These techniques all rest upon the premise that it is quite difficult to invent plausible data, particularly highly dimensional multivariate data. The multicentric nature of clinical trials also offers an opportunity to check the plausibility of the data submitted by one centre by comparing them with the data from all other centres. Finally, with fraud detected, it is essential to quantify its likely impact upon the outcome of the clinical trial. Many instances of fraud in clinical trials, although morally reprehensible, have a negligible impact on the trial's scientific conclusions.


Subject(s)
Biometry , Clinical Trials as Topic/statistics & numerical data , Fraud/prevention & control , Scientific Misconduct/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Quality Control , Reproducibility of Results
8.
Circulation ; 99(25): 3241-7, 1999 Jun 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10385497

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The NHLBI Post Coronary Artery Bypass Graft trial (Post CABG) showed that aggressive compared with moderate lowering of low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) decreased obstructive changes in saphenous vein grafts (SVGs) by 31%.1 Using lovastatin and cholestyramine when necessary, the annually determined mean LDL-C level ranged from 93 to 97 mg/dL in aggressively treated patients and from 132 to 136 mg/dL in the others (P<0.001). METHODS AND RESULTS: The present study evaluated the treatment effect in subgroups defined by age, gender, and selected coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors, ie, smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) <35 mg/dL, and triglyceride serum levels >/=200 mg/dL at baseline. As evidenced by similar odds ratio estimates of progression (lumen diameter decrease >/=0.6 mm) and lack of interactions with treatment, a similar beneficial effect of aggressive lowering was observed in elderly and young patients, in women and men, in patients with and without smoking, hypertension, or diabetes mellitus, and those with and without borderline high-risk triglyceride serum levels. The change in minimum lumen diameter was in the same direction for all subgroup categories, without significant interactions with treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Aggressive LDL-C lowering delays progression of atherosclerosis in SVGs irrespective of gender, age, and certain risk factors for CHD.


Subject(s)
Anticholesteremic Agents/therapeutic use , Arteriosclerosis/drug therapy , Cholesterol, LDL/blood , Coronary Disease/prevention & control , Saphenous Vein/transplantation , Age Factors , Arteriosclerosis/blood , Arteriosclerosis/complications , Clinical Trials as Topic , Coronary Artery Bypass/methods , Coronary Disease/blood , Coronary Disease/etiology , Coronary Disease/surgery , Disease Progression , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Risk Factors , Sex Factors , Treatment Outcome
9.
J Am Coll Cardiol ; 33(3): 598-604, 1999 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10080457

ABSTRACT

UNLABELLED: Estimate the effect of angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors on the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) following myocardial infarction (MI). BACKGROUND: Trials in post-MI patients have shown that ACE inhibitor therapy reduces mortality. However, the effect on SCD as a mechanism has not been clarified. METHODS: Trials of ACE inhibitor therapy following MI reported between January, 1978 and August, 1997 were identified. Studies were included if they met the following criteria: 1) randomized comparison of ACE inhibitor to placebo within 14 days of MI; 2) study duration/blinded follow-up of > or =6 weeks; 3) the number of deaths and modes of death were reported or could be obtained from the investigators. RESULTS: We identified 374 candidate articles, of which 15 met the inclusion criteria. The 15 trials included 15,104 patients, 2,356 of whom died. Most (87%) fatalities were cardiovascular and 900 were SCDs. A significant reduction in SCD risk or a trend towards this was observed in all of the larger (N > 500) trials. Overall, ACE inhibitor therapy resulted in significant reductions in risk of death (random effects odds ratio [OR] = 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.97), cardiovascular death (OR = 0.82; 95% CI 0.69-0.97) and SCD (OR = 0.80; 95% CI 0.70-0.92). CONCLUSIONS: This analysis is consistent with prior reports showing that ACE inhibitors decrease the risk of death following a recent MI by reducing cardiovascular mortality. Moreover, this analysis suggests that a reduction in SCD risk with ACE inhibitors is an important component of this survival benefit.


Subject(s)
Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Death, Sudden, Cardiac , Myocardial Infarction/drug therapy , Peptidyl-Dipeptidase A/drug effects , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , Aged , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Myocardial Infarction/enzymology , Myocardial Infarction/mortality , Odds Ratio , Peptidyl-Dipeptidase A/blood , Recurrence , Retrospective Studies , Survival Rate , Treatment Outcome
10.
Control Clin Trials ; 20(1): 52-63, 1999 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10027500

ABSTRACT

The Raynaud's Treatment Study (RTS) exemplified clinical trials with treatments that differ qualitatively both in their modes and in their methods of delivery. The RTS compared finger-temperature biofeedback to slow-release nifedipine, a calcium channel blocker, in patients with primary Raynaud's disease. Factors influencing the study design were the nature of the interventions and control measures of the protocol, the possibility of perceived differences by the patients between the treatments once the final protocol was developed, and concern on the part of the investigators over the fact that the primary endpoint was self-reported. This paper presents the final statistical model: a double parallel design with both a placebo group and a nonspecific behavioral control group.


Subject(s)
Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic/statistics & numerical data , Raynaud Disease/therapy , Research Design , Biofeedback, Psychology , Humans , Linear Models , Multivariate Analysis , Nifedipine/therapeutic use , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic/methods , Raynaud Disease/drug therapy , Vasodilator Agents/therapeutic use
11.
Biometrics ; 55(4): 1188-92, 1999 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11315066

ABSTRACT

A simple approach is given for conducting closed testing in clinical trials with multiple endpoints in which group sequential monitoring is planned. The approach allows a flexible stopping time; the earliest and latest stopping times are described. The paradigm is applicable both to clinical trials with multiple endpoints and to the one-sided multiple comparison problem of several treatments versus a control. The approach leads to enhancements of previous methods and suggestions for new methods. An example of a respiratory disease trial with four endpoints is given.


Subject(s)
Biometry , Clinical Trials as Topic/statistics & numerical data , Cross-Over Studies , Humans , Respiratory Tract Diseases/drug therapy , Respiratory Tract Diseases/physiopathology , Time Factors
12.
Control Clin Trials ; 18(5): 420-30, 1997 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-9315425

ABSTRACT

The Multicenter Study of Hydroxyurea in Sickle Cell Anemia (MSH), a double-blind randomized clinical trial, compared the frequency of acute vaso-occlusive (painful) crises during 2 yr of follow-up in 299 patients randomly assigned to hydroxyurea or placebo. Most patients had more than one crisis; all crises reported were included in the primary outcome analysis. A total of 7,229 follow-up medical contact reports were classified as crises/not crises by a Crisis Review Committee. Because of the time required to report, document, and classify contacts, interim analyses were prepared with incomplete data. If a stopping boundary were crossed, early termination could be advised only after assessing the potential impact of the incomplete data. In an extension of stochastic curtailment methods, simulation procedures were used to estimate the probability of detecting differences when group crisis rates projected to the end of the study were compared using a rank test. To account for medical contacts not yet reported and the future occurrence of crises, Poisson process models assuming no treatment effect on crisis rates were used for these simulations. The number of unclassified contacts that would be classified as crises was simulated as a binomial random variable. These methods may be useful for interim monitoring in other studies of recurrent events with ongoing event reporting and classification.


Subject(s)
Anemia, Sickle Cell/drug therapy , Antisickling Agents/therapeutic use , Hydroxyurea/therapeutic use , Stochastic Processes , Antisickling Agents/adverse effects , Bias , Confidence Intervals , Data Collection/statistics & numerical data , Double-Blind Method , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Hydroxyurea/adverse effects , Models, Statistical , Treatment Outcome
14.
Am J Cardiol ; 79(7): 889-92, 1997 Apr 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-9104900

ABSTRACT

We hypothesized that among the patients enrolled in the Asymptomatic Cardiac Ischemia Pilot (ACIP) trial, those who reported angina either within the previous 6 weeks or experienced angina during ambulatory electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring during activities of daily life or during stress testing would be more likely to experience an adverse cardiac event within a year than those who did not experience angina. Of the 558 patients enrolled in ACIP, 325 (58.2%) reported angina in the previous 6 weeks, 300 (53.8%) had stress-induced angina, and 63 (11.3%) reported angina during activities of daily life associated with ST-segment changes on the 48-hour ambulatory electrocardiogram. Some patients had > 1 of these angina symptoms and thus 8 angina status categories were identified. Adverse cardiac events were defined as death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), or hospitalization for ischemic events, which included revascularization not specified by the ACIP protocol. One hundred and sixty-seven patients (29.9%) were asymptomatic (i.e., they never had angina) by our defined criteria. Three hundred ninety-one patients (70.1%) were symptomatic. Symptomatic patients had a higher incidence of death, MI, or hospitalization for ischemic events (15.3% symptomatic vs 7.8% asymptomatic, p = 0.016). History of angina within 6 weeks before randomization was predictive of death, MI, or hospitalization for ischemic event (p = 0.007). This finding was due to a large difference in the need for hospitalizations which would be expected to be driven by the presence of angina. By contrast, angina during ambulatory electrocardiogram or stress test was not predictive of an adverse cardiac event. The asymptomatic status of coronary disease patients who have objective documentation of ischemia is not uniformly defined and many different categories can be identified. In this population of patients with proven coronary artery disease and myocardial ischemia, a history of angina in the previous 6 weeks was a good predictor of an adverse event occurring in the next year.


Subject(s)
Angina Pectoris/epidemiology , Death, Sudden, Cardiac/epidemiology , Myocardial Infarction/epidemiology , Myocardial Ischemia/epidemiology , Angina Pectoris/diagnosis , Angina Pectoris/therapy , Cardiovascular Agents/therapeutic use , Electrocardiography, Ambulatory , Follow-Up Studies , Hospitalization , Humans , Incidence , Life Tables , Myocardial Ischemia/therapy , Myocardial Revascularization , Pilot Projects , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Proportional Hazards Models , Time Factors
15.
JAMA ; 277(4): 318-24, 1997.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-9002495

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To assess long-term prognostic significance of transient ischemia in patients with documented coronary artery disease and stable symptoms and to examine the relation between transient ischemia and the site of angiographic disease progression following acute cardiac events. DESIGN: Cohort study with a mean+/-SD follow-up of 51.5+/-23.8 months. SETTING: Ambulatory patients with stable coronary artery disease, assigned to medical therapy. PATIENTS: A total 221 patients (173 men; mean age, 60.8 years) were recruited. Of the 221 patients, 101 (45.7%) had single-vessel, 86 (38.9%) had 2-vessel, and 34 (15.4%) had 3-vessel disease. A total of 135 had a positive exercise test for ischemia, and mean+/-SD resting left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 49.8%+/-11.4%. Using conventional criteria, patients were prospectively stratified as low risk for continued medical therapy (single-vessel disease, 2-vessel disease with negative exercise test, or LVEF> or =40%; n=189 [85.5%]) or high risk for continued medical therapy (multivessel disease with ischemia and/or left ventricular dysfunction; n=32 [14.5%]). INTERVENTIONS: Ambulatory ST-segment monitoring, treadmill exercise testing, radionuclide ventriculography, and coronary angiography. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Demographic, clinical, ambulatory monitoring, treadmill exercise, and left ventricular function variables as independent predictors of acute (cardiac death, myocardial infarction, or unstable angina) or all (including revascularization) cardiac events in the overall and the low-risk population. RESULTS: None of the clinical or noninvasive measures of ischemia were of prognostic significance in the overall or the low-risk group. The only significant independent predictor of outcome in all patients for all events, including revascularization, was the number of diseased vessels (X2=13.5 [df=1]; P<.001). Exclusion of vessel disease resulted in conventional risk stratification as the most significant predictor of outcome from all events in all patients (X2= 10.3 [df= 1]; P=.001). In the low-risk group, the number of diseased vessels was the only predictor for all events (X2=4.6; P=.03). For acute cardiac events, none of the variables tested were of prognostic significance. Based on the frequency of events in the low-risk patients, a 2-fold increase in the rate of cardiac events in patients with transient ischemia compared with those without transient ischemia during ambulatory monitoring could be excluded with greater than 85% power and alpha of .05. Of 30 patients suffering acute nonfatal cardiac events during follow-up, angiography was performed in 27, revealing significant progression of coronary disease in 24 (88.8%) and the development of new significant lesions at sites remote from previously significant lesions in 20 (74%) cases. These new lesions were equally likely to occur in those with or without transient ischemia at initial assessment. CONCLUSIONS: Acute cardiac events in predominantly low-risk stable angina patients with confirmed coronary disease are unpredictable, and those more likely to suffer such an event cannot be identified by the detection of ambulatory ischemia. Acute nonfatal cardiac events result predominantly from the development of significant new coronary lesions, not initially severe enough to cause ischemia. Patients categorized as high risk for long-term medical therapy have an increased rate of cardiac events (mainly revascularization) when compared with low-risk patients.


Subject(s)
Coronary Disease/physiopathology , Heart Function Tests , Myocardial Ischemia/physiopathology , Aged , Angina Pectoris/diagnosis , Angina Pectoris/physiopathology , Cohort Studies , Coronary Angiography , Coronary Disease/diagnosis , Coronary Disease/therapy , Electrocardiography, Ambulatory , Exercise Test , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Myocardial Ischemia/diagnosis , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Proportional Hazards Models , Radionuclide Ventriculography , Risk Assessment , Ventricular Dysfunction, Left/diagnosis , Ventricular Dysfunction, Left/physiopathology
16.
J Biopharm Stat ; 6(4): 377-94, 1996 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8969975

ABSTRACT

Meta-analysis is a popular statistical tool allowing the synthesis of related research studies in a quantitative manner. Components of a good meta-analysis are first discussed, with a view toward critical reading of reports of meta-analyses. Examples include lipid-lowering drugs and coronary artery bypass graft surgery. A role for meta-analysis in the design and monitoring of clinical trials was examined at a workshop held at the National Institutes of Health and aspects of these uses of meta-analyses are considered. Basic analytical and graphical methods of meta-analysis are briefly reviewed. The goal is to encourage more thoughtful evaluation of the many meta-analyses that are published or are presented.


Subject(s)
Meta-Analysis as Topic , Clinical Trials as Topic/methods , Humans , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic/methods
17.
Stroke ; 27(11): 2136-42, 1996 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8898828

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) held a workshop on statistical approaches to analysis of acute stroke trials that have multiple pre-specified outcomes. An objective was to plan for statistical analysis of the NINDS t-PA Stroke Trial, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) for patients with acute ischemic stroke. Treatment success was defined as a "consistent and persuasive difference" in the proportion of patients achieving favorable outcomes on the Barthel Index, Modified Rankin Scale, Glasgow Outcome Scale, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. The Data and Safety Monitoring Committee for the trial recommended this outcome because the committee did not believe that a positive result for a single outcome would provide sufficient evidence of efficacy. SUMMARY OF COMMENT: Workshop participants accepted the global test as a viable approach to testing the primary trial hypothesis. Clinician participants advocated categorizing outcomes as favorable/unfavorable, outcomes more clinically meaningful than continuous outcomes for evaluating a drug with potentially serious side effects. They agreed that a global test was appropriate for ischemic stroke when no single outcome is accepted. Hypothetical, special-case examples illustrate that highly correlated outcomes diminish the power of the global test. NINDS t-PA Stroke Trial data demonstrate the clinical interpretability of the global test. CONCLUSIONS: Workshop participants concluded that a global statistic should be used to test the trial's primary hypothesis accompanied by secondary tests of individual outcomes. Workshop participants recommended familiarizing the clinical/scientific community with the global approach.


Subject(s)
Cerebrovascular Disorders/drug therapy , Plasminogen Activators/therapeutic use , Tissue Plasminogen Activator/therapeutic use , Treatment Outcome , Acute Disease , Humans , National Institutes of Health (U.S.) , Odds Ratio , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , Research Design , Severity of Illness Index , United States
18.
Circulation ; 93(12): 2097-105, 1996 Jun 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8925577

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There are conflicting data as to whether diabetics have a higher prevalence of asymptomatic ST-segment depression during exercise treadmill testing (ETT) and ambulatory ECG (AECG) monitoring. This study was conducted to determine whether diabetic patients with coronary disease enrolled in the Asymptomatic Cardiac Ischemia Pilot (ACIP) have more episodes of asymptomatic ischemia during ETT and 48-hour AECG monitoring than nondiabetic patients and to compare differences in angiographic variables and the magnitude of ischemia as measured by standard ETT and AECG criteria. METHODS AND RESULTS: Angiographic variables and the prevalence and magnitude of ischemia during the qualifying ETT and 48-hour AECG were compared by the presence and absence of diabetes mellitus in 558 randomized ACIP patients. Seventy-seven patients had a history of diabetes and were taking oral hypoglycemics or insulin (diabetic group); 481 patients did not meet these criteria (nondiabetic group). Multivessel disease (87% versus 74%, P = .01) was more frequent in the diabetic group. The percentages of patients without angina during the ETT were similar in the diabetic and nondiabetic groups (36% and 39%, respectively). Time to onset of > or = 1-mm ST-segment depression and time to onset of angina were similar in both groups. The percentages of patients with only asymptomatic ST-segment depression during the 48-hour AECG were similar in the diabetic and nondiabetic groups (94% versus 88%, respectively). However, total ischemic time per 24 hours (15.0 +/- 21.4 versus 23.6 +/- 31.1 minutes, P = .02), ischemic time per episode (6.3 +/- 4.6 versus 9.0 +/- 8.7 minutes, P < .01), and the maximum depth of ST-segment depression tended to be less in the diabetic group. CONCLUSIONS: Patients enrolled in ACIP were selected on the basis of an abnormal ETT and 48-hour AECG and ability to undergo coronary revascularization. When patients with diabetes mellitus were compared with those without diabetes, there was a similar prevalence of asymptomatic ischemia during ETT and 48-hour AECG monitoring. Despite more extensive and diffuse coronary disease, diabetic ACIP patients tended to have less measurable ischemia during the 48-hour AECG.


Subject(s)
Coronary Disease/complications , Diabetic Angiopathies/complications , Electrocardiography, Ambulatory , Exercise Test , Myocardial Ischemia/epidemiology , Aged , Coronary Angiography , Coronary Disease/diagnostic imaging , Coronary Disease/physiopathology , Diabetic Angiopathies/diagnostic imaging , Diabetic Angiopathies/physiopathology , Female , Hemodynamics , Humans , Information Systems , Male , Middle Aged , Myocardial Ischemia/etiology , Prevalence , Time Factors
19.
Am J Cardiol ; 77(15): 1302-9, 1996 Jun 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8677870

ABSTRACT

This report focuses on the subset of 235 patients from the Asymptomatic Cardiac Ischemia Pilot (ACIP) study receiving randomly assigned medical therapy to treat angina and suppress ischemia detected on ambulatory electrocardiography: 121 patients received the sequence of atenolol and nifedipine, and 114 diltiazem and isosorbide dinitrate. After 12 weeks of therapy, the primary end point (absence of ambulatory electrocardiographic (ECG) ischemia and no clinical events) was reached in 47% of atenolol/nifedipine- versus 31% of diltiazem/isosorbide dinitrate-treated patients (adjusted p = 0.03). A trend to increased exercise time to ST depression was seen in the atenolol and nifedipine versus diltiazem and isosorbide dinitrate regimens (median treadmill duration 5.8 vs 4.8 minutes; p = 0.04). However, when adjusted for baseline imbalances in ambulatory ECG ischemia, the 2 medical combinations were similar in suppression of ambulatory ECG ischemia. In both medication regimens, an association between mean heart rate and ischemia on ambulatory electrocardiography after 12 weeks of treatment was observed so that patients on either regimen with a mean heart rate > 80 beats/min had ischemia detectable almost twice as often as those with a mean heart rate < 70 beats/min (p < 0.001).


Subject(s)
Atenolol/therapeutic use , Diltiazem/therapeutic use , Isosorbide Dinitrate/therapeutic use , Myocardial Ischemia/drug therapy , Nifedipine/therapeutic use , Angina Pectoris/diagnosis , Angina Pectoris/drug therapy , Case-Control Studies , Delayed-Action Preparations , Drug Therapy, Combination , Electrocardiography, Ambulatory , Exercise Test , Exercise Tolerance/drug effects , Female , Heart Rate/drug effects , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Myocardial Ischemia/diagnosis , Pilot Projects , Prospective Studies , Time Factors
20.
Circulation ; 92(9 Suppl): II1-7, 1995 Nov 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-7586390

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cardiac ischemia on the ambulatory ECG (AECG) and/or on the exercise treadmill test (ETT) is associated with an increased risk of adverse outcome. Myocardial revascularization more often suppresses cardiac ischemia than does medical management alone. However, few studies have compared the effects of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) with those of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) on cardiac ischemia and clinical outcome. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 558 patients were randomly assigned to one of three treatment strategies in the Asymptomatic Cardiac Ischemia Pilot (ACIP) study: angina-guided medical strategy (n = 184), ischemia-guided medical strategy (n = 182), or revascularization (n = 192). In patients assigned to revascularization, the choice of the procedure, PTCA or CABG, was made by the clinical unit staff and patient based on a coronary angiogram usually performed within 2 months of enrollment. CABG was selected in 78 patients and PTCA in 92 patients. At 12 weeks, ischemia on the AECG was suppressed in 70% of CABG patients versus 46% of PTCA patients (P = .002). Ischemia on the ETT was no longer present in 46% versus 23% of the patients, respectively (P = .005). Angina, within 4 weeks of the follow-up visit, was absent in 90% versus 68%, respectively (P = .001). These clinical variables remained improved in both groups at 1 year. Clinical events (myocardial infarction or repeat revascularization) occurred in 1 CABG patient versus 7 PTCA patients at 12 weeks, and in 1 versus 16 patients, respectively, at 12 months (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Ischemia on the AECG and ETT and angina were relieved in many patients after both procedures; however, CABG was superior to PTCA, and it was associated with a lower incidence of clinical events at 1 year. These results suggest that more complete revascularization relates to better clinical outcome. However, a large trial is needed to confirm these results.


Subject(s)
Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary , Coronary Artery Bypass , Myocardial Ischemia/therapy , Angina Pectoris/etiology , Angina Pectoris/therapy , Electrocardiography, Ambulatory , Exercise Test , Humans , Myocardial Infarction/etiology , Myocardial Ischemia/complications , Myocardial Ischemia/surgery , Pilot Projects , Reoperation , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome
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