Maternal transmission as a microbial symbiont sieve, and the absence of lactation in male mammals.

Gut microbiomes of mammals carry a complex symbiotic assemblage of microorganisms. Feeding newborn infants milk from the mammary gland allows vertical transmission of the parental milk microbiome to the offspring's gut microbiome. This has benefits, but also has hazards for the host population. Using mathematical models, we demonstrate that biparental vertical transmission enables deleterious microbial elements to invade host populations. In contrast, uniparental vertical transmission acts as a sieve, preventing these invasions. Moreover, we show that deleterious symbionts generate selection on host modifier genes that keep uniparental transmission in place. Since microbial transmission occurs during birth in placental mammals, subsequent transmission of the milk microbiome needs to be maternal to avoid the spread of deleterious elements. This paper therefore argues that viviparity and the hazards from biparental transmission of the milk microbiome, together generate selection against male lactation in placental mammals.

Feasibility and stability in large Lotka Volterra systems with interaction structure.

Complex system stability can be studied via linear stability analysis using random matrix theory (RMT) or via feasibility (requiring positive equilibrium abundances). Both approaches highlight the importance of interaction structure. Here we show, analytically and numerically, how RMT and feasibility approaches can be complementary. In generalized Lotka-Volterra (GLV) models with random interaction matrices, feasibility increases when predator-prey interactions increase; increasing competition/mutualism has the opposite effect. These changes have crucial impact on the stability of the GLV model.

Denitrative Hydroxylation of Unactivated Nitroarenes.

A one-step method for the conversion of nitroarenes into phenols under operationally simple, transition-metal-free conditions is described. This denitrative functionalization protocol provides a concise and economical alternative to conventional three-step synthetic sequences. Experimental and computational studies suggest that nitroarenes may be substituted by an electron-catalysed radical-nucleophilic substitution (SRN 1) chain mechanism.

Chromosome 10q-linked FSHD identifies DUX4 as principal disease gene.

BACKGROUND: Facioscapulohumeral dystrophy (FSHD) is an inherited muscular dystrophy clinically characterised by muscle weakness starting with the facial and upper extremity muscles. A disease model has been developed that postulates that failure in somatic repression of the transcription factor DUX4 embedded in the D4Z4 repeat on chromosome 4q causes FSHD. However, due to the position of the D4Z4 repeat close to the telomere and the complex genetic and epigenetic aetiology of FSHD, there is ongoing debate about the transcriptional deregulation of closely linked genes and their involvement in FSHD. METHOD: Detailed genetic characterisation and gene expression analysis of patients with clinically confirmed FSHD and control individuals. RESULTS: Identification of two FSHD families in which the disease is caused by repeat contraction and DUX4 expression from chromosome 10 due to a de novo D4Z4 repeat exchange between chromosomes 4 and 10. We show that the genetic lesion causal to FSHD in these families is physically separated from other candidate genes on chromosome 4. We demonstrate that muscle cell cultures from affected family members exhibit the characteristic molecular features of FSHD, including DUX4 and DUX4 target gene expression, without showing evidence for transcriptional deregulation of other chromosome 4-specific candidate genes. CONCLUSION: This study shows that in rare situations, FSHD can occur on chromosome 10 due to an interchromosomal rearrangement with the FSHD locus on chromosome 4q. These findings provide further evidence that DUX4 derepression is the dominant disease pathway for FSHD. Hence, therapeutic strategies should focus on DUX4 as the primary target.

Parthenogenesis and the Evolution of Anisogamy.

Recently, it was pointed out that classic models for the evolution of anisogamy do not take into account the possibility of parthenogenetic reproduction, even though sex is facultative in many relevant taxa (e.g., algae) that harbour both anisogamous and isogamous species. Here, we complement this recent analysis with an approach where we assume that the relationship between progeny size and its survival may differ between parthenogenetically and sexually produced progeny, favouring either the former or the latter. We show that previous findings that parthenogenesis can stabilise isogamy relative to the obligate sex case, extend to our scenarios. We additionally investigate two different ways for one mating type to take over the entire population. First, parthenogenesis can lead to biased sex ratios that are sufficiently extreme that one type can displace the other, leading to de facto asexuality for the remaining type that now lacks partners to fuse with. This process involves positive feedback: microgametes, being numerous, lack opportunities for syngamy, and should they proliferate parthenogenetically, the next generation makes this asexual route even more prominent for microgametes. Second, we consider mutations to strict asexuality in producers of micro- or macrogametes, and show that the prospects of asexual invasion depend strongly on the mating type in which the mutation arises. Perhaps most interestingly, we also find scenarios in which parthenogens have an intrinsic survival advantage yet facultatively sexual isogamous populations are robust to the invasion of asexuals, despite us assuming no genetic benefits of recombination. Here, equal contribution from both mating types to zygotes that are sufficiently well provisioned can outweigh the additional costs associated with syngamy.

Fluctuation spectra of large random dynamical systems reveal hidden structure in ecological networks.

Understanding the relationship between complexity and stability in large dynamical systems-such as ecosystems-remains a key open question in complexity theory which has inspired a rich body of work developed over more than fifty years. The vast majority of this theory addresses asymptotic linear stability around equilibrium points, but the idea of 'stability' in fact has other uses in the empirical ecological literature. The important notion of 'temporal stability' describes the character of fluctuations in population dynamics, driven by intrinsic or extrinsic noise. Here we apply tools from random matrix theory to the problem of temporal stability, deriving analytical predictions for the fluctuation spectra of complex ecological networks. We show that different network structures leave distinct signatures in the spectrum of fluctuations, and demonstrate the application of our theory to the analysis of ecological time-series data of plankton abundances.

Switching environments, synchronous sex, and the evolution of mating types.

While facultative sex is common in sexually reproducing species, for reasons of tractability most mathematical models assume that such sex is asynchronous in the population. In this paper, we develop a model of switching environments to instead capture the effect of an entire population transitioning synchronously between sexual and asexual modes of reproduction. We use this model to investigate the evolution of the number of self-incompatible mating types in finite populations, which empirically can range from two to thousands. When environmental switching is fast, we recover the results of earlier studies that implicitly assumed populations were engaged in asynchronous sexual reproduction. However when the environment switches slowly, we see deviations from previous asynchronous theory, including a lower number of mating types at equilibrium and bimodality in the stationary distribution of mating types. We provide analytic approximations for both the fast and slow switching regimes, as well as a numerical scheme based on the Kolmogorov equations for the system to quickly evaluate the model dynamics at intermediate parameters. Our approach exploits properties of integer partitions in number theory. We also demonstrate how additional biological processes such as selective sweeps can be accounted for in this switching environment framework, showing that beneficial mutations can further erode mating type diversity in synchronous facultatively sexual populations.

Fitness differences suppress the number of mating types in evolving isogamous species.

Sexual reproduction is not always synonymous with the existence of two morphologically different sexes; isogamous species produce sex cells of equal size, typically falling into multiple distinct self-incompatible classes, termed mating types. A long-standing open question in evolutionary biology is: what governs the number of these mating types across species? Simple theoretical arguments imply an advantage to rare types, suggesting the number of types should grow consistently; however, empirical observations are very different. While some isogamous species exhibit thousands of mating types, such species are exceedingly rare, and most have fewer than 10. In this paper, we present a mathematical analysis to quantify the role of fitness variation-characterized by different mortality rates-in determining the number of mating types emerging in simple evolutionary models. We predict that the number of mating types decreases as the variance of mortality increases.

More prevalent, less deadly? Bayesian inference of the COVID19 Infection Fatality Ratio from mortality data

We use an established semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model of the COVID-19 pandemic [1], driven by European mortality data, to estimate the prevalence of immunity. We allow the infection-fatality ratio (IFR) to vary, adapt the models priors to better reflect emerging information, and re-evaluate the model fitting in the light of current mortality data. The results indicate that the IFR of COVID-19 may be an order of magnitude smaller than the current consensus, with the corollary that the virus is more prevalent than currently believed. These results emerge from a simple model and ought to be treated with caution. They emphasise the value of rapid community-scale antibody testing when this becomes available.

Invasion and Extinction Dynamics of Mating Types Under Facultative Sexual Reproduction.

In sexually reproducing isogamous species, syngamy between gametes is generally not indiscriminate, but rather restricted to occurring between complementary self-incompatible mating types. A longstanding question regards the evolutionary pressures that control the number of mating types observed in natural populations, which ranges from two to many thousands. Here, we describe a population genetic null model of this reproductive system, and derive expressions for the stationary probability distribution of the number of mating types, the establishment probability of a newly arising mating type, and the mean time to extinction of a resident type. Our results yield that the average rate of sexual reproduction in a population correlates positively with the expected number of mating types observed. We further show that the low number of mating types predicted in the rare-sex regime is primarily driven by low invasion probabilities of new mating type alleles, with established resident alleles being very stable over long evolutionary periods. Moreover, our model naturally exhibits varying selection strength dependent on the number of resident mating types. This results in higher extinction and lower invasion rates for an increasing number of residents.

The rate of facultative sex governs the number of expected mating types in isogamous species.

It is unclear why sexually reproducing isogamous species frequently contain just two self-incompatible mating types. Deterministic theory suggests that since rare novel mating types experience a selective advantage (by virtue of their many potential partners), the number of mating types should consistently grow. However, in nature, species with thousands of mating types are exceedingly rare. Several competing theories for the predominance of species with two mating types exist, yet they lack an explanation for how many are possible and in which species to expect high numbers. Here, we present a theoretical null model that explains the distribution of mating type numbers using just three biological parameters: mutation rate, population size and the rate of sex. If the number of mating types results from a mutation-extinction balance, the rate of sexual reproduction plays a crucial role. If sex is facultative and rare (a very common combination in isogamous species), mating type diversity will remain low. In this rare sex regime, small fitness differences between the mating types lead to more frequent extinctions, further lowering mating type diversity. We also show that the empirical literature supports the role of drift and facultativeness of sex as a determinant of mating type dynamics.

Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory.

The relationship between the M-species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M-allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.

Drift-Induced Selection Between Male and Female Heterogamety.

Evolutionary transitions between male and female heterogamety are common in both vertebrates and invertebrates. Theoretical studies of these transitions have found that, when all genotypes are equally fit, continuous paths of intermediate equilibria link the two sex chromosome systems. This observation has led to a belief that neutral evolution along these paths can drive transitions, and that arbitrarily small fitness differences among sex chromosome genotypes can determine the system to which evolution leads. Here, we study stochastic evolutionary dynamics along these equilibrium paths. We find non-neutrality, both in transitions retaining the ancestral pair of sex chromosomes, and in those creating a new pair. In fact, substitution rates are biased in favor of dominant sex determining chromosomes, which fix with higher probabilities than mutations of no effect. Using diffusion approximations, we show that this non-neutrality is a result of "drift-induced selection" operating at every point along the equilibrium paths: stochastic jumps off the paths return with, on average, a directional bias in favor of the dominant segregating sex chromosome. Our results offer a novel explanation for the observed preponderance of dominant sex determining genes, and hint that drift-induced selection may be a common force in standard population genetic systems.

Farming and public goods production in Caenorhabditis elegans populations.

The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations are shaped by the strategies they use to produce and use resources. However, our understanding of the interplay between the genetic, behavioral, and environmental factors driving these strategies is limited. Here, we report on a Caenorhabditis elegans-Escherichia coli (worm-bacteria) experimental system in which the worm-foraging behavior leads to a redistribution of the bacterial food source, resulting in a growth advantage for both organisms, similar to that achieved via farming. We show experimentally and theoretically that the increased resource growth represents a public good that can benefit all other consumers, regardless of whether or not they are producers. Mutant worms that cannot farm bacteria benefit from farming by other worms in direct proportion to the fraction of farmers in the worm population. The farming behavior can therefore be exploited if it is associated with either energetic or survival costs. However, when the individuals compete for resources with their own type, these costs can result in an increased population density. Altogether, our findings reveal a previously unrecognized mechanism of public good production resulting from the foraging behavior of C. elegans, which has important population-level consequences. This powerful system may provide broad insight into exploration-exploitation tradeoffs, the resultant ecoevolutionary dynamics, and the underlying genetic and neurobehavioral driving forces of multispecies interactions.

Demographic noise can reverse the direction of deterministic selection.

Deterministic evolutionary theory robustly predicts that populations displaying altruistic behaviors will be driven to extinction by mutant cheats that absorb common benefits but do not themselves contribute. Here we show that when demographic stochasticity is accounted for, selection can in fact act in the reverse direction to that predicted deterministically, instead favoring cooperative behaviors that appreciably increase the carrying capacity of the population. Populations that exist in larger numbers experience a selective advantage by being more stochastically robust to invasions than smaller populations, and this advantage can persist even in the presence of reproductive costs. We investigate this general effect in the specific context of public goods production and find conditions for stochastic selection reversal leading to the success of public good producers. This insight, developed here analytically, is missed by the deterministic analysis as well as by standard game theoretic models that enforce a fixed population size. The effect is found to be amplified by space; in this scenario we find that selection reversal occurs within biologically reasonable parameter regimes for microbial populations. Beyond the public good problem, we formulate a general mathematical framework for models that may exhibit stochastic selection reversal. In this context, we describe a stochastic analog to [Formula: see text] theory, by which small populations can evolve to higher densities in the absence of disturbance.

Stationary solutions for metapopulation Moran models with mutation and selection.

We construct an individual-based metapopulation model of population genetics featuring migration, mutation, selection, and genetic drift. In the case of a single "island," the model reduces to the Moran model. Using the diffusion approximation and time-scale separation arguments, an effective one-variable description of the model is developed. The effective description bears similarities to the well-mixed Moran model with effective parameters that depend on the network structure and island sizes, and it is amenable to analysis. Predictions from the reduced theory match the results from stochastic simulations across a range of parameters. The nature of the fast-variable elimination technique we adopt is further studied by applying it to a linear system, where it provides a precise description of the slow dynamics in the limit of large time-scale separation.

Models of genetic drift as limiting forms of the Lotka-Volterra competition model.

The relationship between the Moran model and stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model is explored via time scale separation arguments. For neutral systems the two are found to be equivalent at long times. For systems with selective pressure, their behavior differs. It is argued that the SLVC is preferable to the Moran model since in the SLVC population size is regulated by competition, rather than arbitrarily fixed as in the Moran model. As a consequence, ambiguities found in the Moran model associated with the introduction of more complex processes, such as selection, are avoided.

Population genetics on islands connected by an arbitrary network: an analytic approach.

We analyse a model consisting of a population of individuals which is subdivided into a finite set of demes, each of which has a fixed but differing number of individuals. The individuals can reproduce, die and migrate between the demes according to an arbitrary migration network. They are haploid, with two alleles present in the population; frequency-independent selection is also incorporated, where the strength and direction of selection can vary from deme to deme. The system is formulated as an individual-based model and the diffusion approximation systematically applied to express it as a set of nonlinear coupled stochastic differential equations. These can be made amenable to analysis through the elimination of fast-time variables. The resulting reduced model is analysed in a number of situations, including migration-selection balance leading to a polymorphic equilibrium of the two alleles and an illustration of how the subdivision of the population can lead to non-trivial behaviour in the case where the network is a simple hub. The method we develop is systematic, may be applied to any network, and agrees well with the results of simulations in all cases studied and across a wide range of parameter values.

Fast-mode elimination in stochastic metapopulation models.

We investigate the stochastic dynamics of entities which are confined to a set of islands, between which they migrate. They are assumed to be one of two types, and in addition to migration, they also reproduce and die. Birth and death events are later moderated by weak selection. Systems which fall into this class are common in biology and social science, occurring in ecology, population genetics, epidemiology, biochemistry, linguistics, opinion dynamics, and other areas. In all these cases the governing equations are intractable, consisting as they do of multidimensional Fokker-Planck equations or, equivalently, coupled nonlinear stochastic differential equations with multiplicative noise. We develop a methodology which exploits a separation in time scales between fast and slow variables to reduce these equations so that they resemble those for a single island, which are amenable to analysis. The technique is generally applicable, but we choose to discuss it in the context of population genetics, in part because of the extra features that appear due to selection. The idea behind the method is simple, its application is systematic, and the results are in very good agreement with simulations of the full model for a range of parameter values.

An integrated in silico analysis of drug-binding to human serum albumin.

Approaches such as quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) and molecular modeling are integrated with the study of complex networks to understand drug binding to human serum albumin (HSA). A robust QSAR model using the topological substructural molecular descriptors/design (TOPS-MODE) approach has been derived and shows good predictability and interpretability in terms of structural contribution to drug binding to HSA. A perfect agreement exists between the group/fragment contributions found by TOPS-MODE and the specific interactions of drugs with HSA. These results indicate a preponderant contribution of hydrophobic regions of drugs to the specific binding to drug-binding sites 1 and 2 in HSA and specific roles of polar groups which anchor drugs to HSA binding sites. The occurrence of fragments contributing to drug binding to HSA can be represented by complex networks. The fragment-to-fragment complex network displays "small-world" and "scale-free" characteristics and in this way is similar to other complex networks including biological, social, and technological networks. A small number of fragments appear very frequently in most drugs. These molecular "empathic" fragments are good candidates for guiding future drug discovery research.