Pooling European all-cause mortality: methodology and findings for the seasons 2008/2009 to 2010/2011.

Several European countries have timely all-cause mortality monitoring. However, small changes in mortality may not give rise to signals at the national level. Pooling data across countries may overcome this, particularly if changes in mortality occur simultaneously. Additionally, pooling may increase the power of monitoring populations with small numbers of expected deaths, e.g. younger age groups or fertile women. Finally, pooled analyses may reveal patterns of diseases across Europe. We describe a pooled analysis of all-cause mortality across 16 European countries. Two approaches were explored. In the 'summarized' approach, data across countries were summarized and analysed as one overall country. In the 'stratified' approach, heterogeneities between countries were taken into account. Pooling using the 'stratified' approach was the most appropriate as it reflects variations in mortality. Excess mortality was observed in all winter seasons albeit slightly higher in 2008/09 than 2009/10 and 2010/11. In the 2008/09 season, excess mortality was mainly in elderly adults. In 2009/10, when pandemic influenza A(H1N1) dominated, excess mortality was mainly in children. The 2010/11 season reflected a similar pattern, although increased mortality in children came later. These patterns were less clear in analyses based on data from individual countries. We have demonstrated that with stratified pooling we can combine local mortality monitoring systems and enhance monitoring of mortality across Europe.

Excess mortality among the elderly in 12 European countries, February and March 2012.

In February and March 2012, excess deaths among the elderly have been observed in 12 European countries that carry out weekly monitoring of all-cause mortality. These preliminary data indicate that the impact of influenza in Europe differs from the recent pandemic and post-pandemic seasons. The current excess mortality among the elderly may be related to the return of influenza A(H3N2) virus, potentially with added effects of a cold snap.

Higher all-cause mortality in children during autumn 2009 compared with the three previous years: pooled results from eight European countries.

The paper describes weekly fluctuations of all-cause mortality observed in eight European countries during the period between week 27 and 51, 2009, in comparison with three previous years. Our preliminary data show that the mortality reported during the 2009 influenza pandemic did not reach levels normally seen during seasonal influenza epidemics. However, there was a cumulative excess mortality of 77 cases (1 per 100,000 population) in 5-14-year-olds, and possibly also among 0-4-year-olds.

Could nutritional rehabilitation at home complement or replace centre-based therapeutic feeding programmes for severe malnutrition?

To measure the success rate of three different strategies used in Médecins Sans Frontières large-scale therapeutic nutritional rehabilitation programme in Niger, we analysed three cohorts of severely malnourished patients in terms of daily weight gain, length of stay, recovery, case fatality and defaulting. A total of 1937 children aged 6-59 months were followed prospectively from 15 August 2002 to 21 October 2003. For the three cohorts, 660 children were maintained in the therapeutic feeding centre (TFC) during the entire treatment, 937 children were initially treated at the TFC and completed treatment at home and 340 children were exclusively treated at home. For all cohorts, average time in the programme and average weight gain met the international standards (30-40 days, >8 g/kg/day). Default rates were 28.1, 16.8 and 5.6% for TFC only, TFC plus home-based and home-based alone strategies, respectively. The overall case fatality rate for the entire programme was 6.8%. Case fatality rates were 18.9% for TFC only and 1.7% for home-based alone. No deaths were recorded in children transferred to rehabilitation at home. This study suggests that satisfactory results for the treatment of severe malnutrition can be achieved using a combination of home and hospital-based strategies.

[Multiple Ebola virus haemorrhagic fever outbreaks in Gabon, from October 2001 to April 2002]. / Plusieurs epidémies de fièvre hémorragique due au virus Ebola au Gabon, d'octobre 2001 a avril 2002.

Outbreaks of Ebola virus haemorrhagic fever have been reported from 1994 to 1996 in the province of Ogooué Ivindo, a forest zone situated in the Northeast of Gabon. Each time, the great primates had been identified as the initial source of human infection. End of November 2001 a new alert came from this province, rapidly confirmed as a EVHV outbreak. The response was given by the Ministry of Health with the help of an international team under the aegis of WHO. An active monitoring system was implemented in the three districts hit by the epidemic (Zadié, Ivindo and Mpassa) to organize the detection of cases and their follow-up. A case definition has been set up, the suspected cases were isolated at hospital, at home or in lazarets and serological tests were performed. These tests consisted of the detection of antigen or specific IgG and the RT-PCR. A classification of cases was made according to the results of biological tests, clinical and epidemiological data. The contact subjects were kept watch over for 21 days. 65 cases were recorded among which 53 deaths. The first human case, a hunter died on the 28th of October 2001. The epidemic spreads over through family transmission and nosocomial contamination. Four distinct primary foci have been identified together with an isolated case situated in the South East of Gabon, 580 km away from the epicenter. Deaths happened within a delay of 6 days. The last death has been recorded on the 22nd of March 2002 and the end of the outbreak was declared on the 6th of May 2002. The epidemic spreads over the Gabon just next. Unexplained deaths of animals had been mentionned in the nearby forests as soon as August 2001: great primates and cephalophus. Samples taken from their carcasses confirmed a concomitant animal epidemic.