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1.
AJNR Am J Neuroradiol ; 40(1): 154-161, 2019 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30523141

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Distinct molecular subgroups of pediatric medulloblastoma confer important differences in prognosis and therapy. Currently, tissue sampling is the only method to obtain information for classification. Our goal was to develop and validate radiomic and machine learning approaches for predicting molecular subgroups of pediatric medulloblastoma. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this multi-institutional retrospective study, we evaluated MR imaging datasets of 109 pediatric patients with medulloblastoma from 3 children's hospitals from January 2001 to January 2014. A computational framework was developed to extract MR imaging-based radiomic features from tumor segmentations, and we tested 2 predictive models: a double 10-fold cross-validation using a combined dataset consisting of all 3 patient cohorts and a 3-dataset cross-validation, in which training was performed on 2 cohorts and testing was performed on the third independent cohort. We used the Wilcoxon rank sum test for feature selection with assessment of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to evaluate model performance. RESULTS: Of 590 MR imaging-derived radiomic features, including intensity-based histograms, tumor edge-sharpness, Gabor features, and local area integral invariant features, extracted from imaging-derived tumor segmentations, tumor edge-sharpness was most useful for predicting sonic hedgehog and group 4 tumors. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed superior performance of the double 10-fold cross-validation model for predicting sonic hedgehog, group 3, and group 4 tumors when using combined T1- and T2-weighted images (area under the curve = 0.79, 0.70, and 0.83, respectively). With the independent 3-dataset cross-validation strategy, select radiomic features were predictive of sonic hedgehog (area under the curve = 0.70-0.73) and group 4 (area under the curve = 0.76-0.80) medulloblastoma. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides proof-of-concept results for the application of radiomic and machine learning approaches to a multi-institutional dataset for the prediction of medulloblastoma subgroups.


Subject(s)
Cerebellar Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Magnetic Resonance Imaging/methods , Medulloblastoma/diagnostic imaging , Adolescent , Cerebellar Neoplasms/metabolism , Child , Child, Preschool , Cohort Studies , Databases, Factual , Female , Hedgehog Proteins/metabolism , Humans , Image Processing, Computer-Assisted , Machine Learning , Male , Medulloblastoma/metabolism , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Reproducibility of Results , Retrospective Studies
2.
AJNR Am J Neuroradiol ; 39(2): 208-216, 2018 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28982791

ABSTRACT

Radiomics describes a broad set of computational methods that extract quantitative features from radiographic images. The resulting features can be used to inform imaging diagnosis, prognosis, and therapy response in oncology. However, major challenges remain for methodologic developments to optimize feature extraction and provide rapid information flow in clinical settings. Equally important, to be clinically useful, predictive radiomic properties must be clearly linked to meaningful biologic characteristics and qualitative imaging properties familiar to radiologists. Here we use a cross-disciplinary approach to highlight studies in radiomics. We review brain tumor radiologic studies (eg, imaging interpretation) through computational models (eg, computer vision and machine learning) that provide novel clinical insights. We outline current quantitative image feature extraction and prediction strategies with different levels of available clinical classes for supporting clinical decision-making. We further discuss machine-learning challenges and data opportunities to advance radiomic studies.


Subject(s)
Brain Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Image Interpretation, Computer-Assisted/methods , Machine Learning , Neuroimaging/methods , Humans
3.
EBioMedicine ; 17: 223-236, 2017 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28314692

ABSTRACT

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is broadly classified into HNSCC associated with human papilloma virus (HPV) infection, and HPV negative HNSCC, which is typically smoking-related. A subset of HPV negative HNSCCs occur in patients without smoking history, however, and these etiologically 'atypical' HNSCCs disproportionately occur in the oral cavity, and in female patients, suggesting a distinct etiology. To investigate the determinants of clinical and molecular heterogeneity, we performed unsupervised clustering to classify 528 HNSCC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) into putative intrinsic subtypes based on their profiles of epigenetically (DNA methylation) deregulated genes. HNSCCs clustered into five subtypes, including one HPV positive subtype, two smoking-related subtypes, and two atypical subtypes. One atypical subtype was particularly genomically stable, but featured widespread gene silencing associated with the 'CpG island methylator phenotype' (CIMP). Further distinguishing features of this 'CIMP-Atypical' subtype include an antiviral gene expression profile associated with pro-inflammatory M1 macrophages and CD8+ T cell infiltration, CASP8 mutations, and a well-differentiated state corresponding to normal SOX2 copy number and SOX2OT hypermethylation. We developed a gene expression classifier for the CIMP-Atypical subtype that could classify atypical disease features in two independent patient cohorts, demonstrating the reproducibility of this subtype. Taken together, these findings provide unprecedented evidence that atypical HNSCC is molecularly distinct, and postulates the CIMP-Atypical subtype as a distinct clinical entity that may be caused by chronic inflammation.


Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Squamous Cell/genetics , CpG Islands , DNA Methylation , Head and Neck Neoplasms/genetics , Phenotype , Carcinoma, Squamous Cell/epidemiology , Carcinoma, Squamous Cell/pathology , Case-Control Studies , Gene Expression Regulation, Neoplastic , Head and Neck Neoplasms/epidemiology , Head and Neck Neoplasms/pathology , Humans , Smoking , Survival Analysis
4.
Br J Cancer ; 112(8): 1314-25, 2015 Apr 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25867261

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study characterises molecular effect of bevacizumab, and explores the relation of molecular and genetic markers with response to bevacizumab combined with chemoradiotherapy (CRT). METHODS: From a subset of 59 patients of 84 rectal cancer patients included in a phase II study combining bevacizumab with CRT, tumour and blood samples were collected before and during treatment, offering the possibility to evaluate changes induced by one dose of bevacizumab. We performed cDNA microarrays, stains for CD31/CD34 combined with α-SMA and CA-IX, as well as enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for circulating angiogenic proteins. Markers were related with the pathological response of patients. RESULTS: One dose of bevacizumab changed the expression of 14 genes and led to a significant decrease in microvessel density and in the proportion of pericyte-covered blood vessels, and a small but nonsignificant increase in hypoxia. Alterations in angiogenic processes after bevacizumab delivery were only detected in responding tumours. Lower PDGFA expression and PDGF-BB levels, less pericyte-covered blood vessels and higher CA-IX expression were found after bevacizumab treatment only in patients with pathological complete response. CONCLUSIONS: We could not support the 'normalization hypothesis' and suggest a role for PDGFA, PDGF-BB, CA-IX and α-SMA. Validation in larger patient groups is needed.


Subject(s)
Angiogenesis Inhibitors/administration & dosage , Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/administration & dosage , Biomarkers, Tumor/blood , Gene Expression Regulation, Neoplastic/drug effects , Rectal Neoplasms/therapy , Adult , Aged , Angiogenesis Inhibitors/pharmacology , Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/pharmacology , Bevacizumab , Biomarkers, Tumor/genetics , Chemoradiotherapy , Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic , Gene Expression Profiling , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Oligonucleotide Array Sequence Analysis , Rectal Neoplasms/blood , Rectal Neoplasms/pathology , Translational Research, Biomedical , Treatment Outcome
5.
Hum Reprod ; 27(9): 2698-711, 2012 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22736326

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: At present, the only way to conclusively diagnose endometriosis is laparoscopic inspection, preferably with histological confirmation. This contributes to the delay in the diagnosis of endometriosis which is 6-11 years. So far non-invasive diagnostic approaches such as ultrasound (US), MRI or blood tests do not have sufficient diagnostic power. Our aim was to develop and validate a non-invasive diagnostic test with a high sensitivity (80% or more) for symptomatic endometriosis patients, without US evidence of endometriosis, since this is the group most in need of a non-invasive test. METHODS: A total of 28 inflammatory and non-inflammatory plasma biomarkers were measured in 353 EDTA plasma samples collected at surgery from 121 controls without endometriosis at laparoscopy and from 232 women with endometriosis (minimal-mild n = 148; moderate-severe n = 84), including 175 women without preoperative US evidence of endometriosis. Surgery was done during menstrual (n = 83), follicular (n = 135) and luteal (n = 135) phases of the menstrual cycle. For analysis, the data were randomly divided into an independent training (n = 235) and a test (n = 118) data set. Statistical analysis was done using univariate and multivariate (logistic regression and least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) approaches in training- and test data set separately to validate our findings. RESULTS: In the training set, two models of four biomarkers (Model 1: annexin V, VEGF, CA-125 and glycodelin; Model 2: annexin V, VEGF, CA-125 and sICAM-1) analysed in plasma, obtained during the menstrual phase, could predict US-negative endometriosis with a high sensitivity (81-90%) and an acceptable specificity (68-81%). The same two models predicted US-negative endometriosis in the independent validation test set with a high sensitivity (82%) and an acceptable specificity (63-75%). CONCLUSIONS: In plasma samples obtained during menstruation, multivariate analysis of four biomarkers (annexin V, VEGF, CA-125 and sICAM-1/or glycodelin) enabled the diagnosis of endometriosis undetectable by US with a sensitivity of 81-90% and a specificity of 63-81% in independent training- and test data set. The next step is to apply these models for preoperative prediction of endometriosis in an independent set of patients with infertility and/or pain without US evidence of endometriosis, scheduled for laparoscopy.


Subject(s)
Biomarkers/metabolism , Endometriosis/blood , Endometriosis/diagnosis , Adult , Case-Control Studies , Edetic Acid/metabolism , Female , Humans , Inflammation , Laparoscopy , Least-Squares Analysis , Menstrual Cycle , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , ROC Curve , Regression Analysis , Sensitivity and Specificity
6.
Hum Reprod ; 27(7): 2020-9, 2012 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22556377

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: An early semi-invasive diagnosis of endometriosis has the potential to allow early treatment and minimize disease progression but no such test is available at present. Our aim was to perform a combined mRNA microarray and proteomic analysis on the same eutopic endometrium sample obtained from patients with and without endometriosis. METHODS: mRNA and protein fractions were extracted from 49 endometrial biopsies obtained from women with laparoscopically proven presence (n= 31) or absence (n= 18) of endometriosis during the early luteal (n= 27) or menstrual phase (n= 22) and analyzed using microarray and proteomic surface enhanced laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry, respectively. Proteomic data were analyzed using a least squares-support vector machines (LS-SVM) model built on 70% (training set) and 30% of the samples (test set). RESULTS: mRNA analysis of eutopic endometrium did not show any differentially expressed genes in women with endometriosis when compared with controls, regardless of endometriosis stage or cycle phase. mRNA was differentially expressed (P< 0.05) in women with (925 genes) and without endometriosis (1087 genes) during the menstrual phase when compared with the early luteal phase. Proteomic analysis based on five peptide peaks [2072 mass/charge (m/z); 2973 m/z; 3623 m/z; 3680 m/z and 21133 m/z] using an LS-SVM model applied on the luteal phase endometrium training set allowed the diagnosis of endometriosis (sensitivity, 91; 95% confidence interval (CI): 74-98; specificity, 80; 95% CI: 66-97 and positive predictive value, 87.9%; negative predictive value, 84.8%) in the test set. CONCLUSION: mRNA expression of eutopic endometrium was comparable in women with and without endometriosis but different in menstrual endometrium when compared with luteal endometrium in women with endometriosis. Proteomic analysis of luteal phase endometrium allowed the diagnosis of endometriosis with high sensitivity and specificity in training and test sets. A potential limitation of our study is the fact that our control group included women with a normal pelvis as well as women with concurrent pelvic disease (e.g. fibroids, benign ovarian cysts, hydrosalpinges), which may have contributed to the comparable mRNA expression profile in the eutopic endometrium of women with endometriosis and controls.


Subject(s)
Endometriosis/metabolism , Endometriosis/physiopathology , Oligonucleotide Array Sequence Analysis/methods , Proteomics/methods , RNA, Messenger/metabolism , Adult , Biomarkers/chemistry , Biomarkers, Tumor/metabolism , Biopsy , Case-Control Studies , Endometriosis/diagnosis , Endometrium/pathology , Female , Humans , Peptides/chemistry , Predictive Value of Tests , Retrospective Studies , Spectrometry, Mass, Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption-Ionization/methods , Support Vector Machine
7.
Breast Cancer Res Treat ; 129(3): 767-76, 2011 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21116709

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to investigate whether lymph node involvement in breast cancer is influenced by gene or miRNA expression of the primary tumor. For this purpose, we selected a very homogeneous patient population to minimize heterogeneity in other tumor and patient characteristics. First, we compared gene expression profiles of primary tumor tissue from a group of 96 breast cancer patients balanced for lymph node involvement using Affymetrix Human U133 Plus 2.0 microarray chip. A model was built by weighted Least-Squares Support Vector Machines and validated on an internal and external dataset. Next, miRNA profiling was performed on a subset of 82 tumors using Human MiRNA-microarray chips (Illumina). Finally, for each miRNA the number of significant inverse correlated targets was determined and compared with 1000 sets of randomly chosen targets. A model based on 241 genes was built (AUC 0.66). The AUC for the internal dataset was 0.646 and 0. 651 for the external datasets. The model includes multiple kinases, apoptosis-related, and zinc ion-binding genes. Integration of the microarray and miRNA data reveals ten miRNAs suppressing lymph node invasion and one miRNA promoting lymph node invasion. Our results provide evidence that measurable differences in gene and miRNA expression exist between node negative and node positive patients and thus that lymph node involvement is not a genetically random process. Moreover, our data suggest a general deregulation of the miRNA machinery that is potentially responsible for lymph node invasion.


Subject(s)
Breast Neoplasms/genetics , Breast Neoplasms/pathology , Gene Expression Regulation, Neoplastic , Lymphatic Metastasis/genetics , MicroRNAs , Aged , Area Under Curve , Female , Gene Expression Profiling , Humans , Lymph Nodes/pathology , Lymphatic Metastasis/pathology , Microarray Analysis , Middle Aged , Models, Genetic
8.
Hum Reprod ; 25(3): 654-64, 2010 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20007161

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Lack of a non-invasive diagnostic test contributes to the long delay between onset of symptoms and diagnosis of endometriosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the combined performance of six potential plasma biomarkers in the diagnosis of endometriosis. METHODS: This case-control study was conducted in 294 infertile women, consisting of 93 women with a normal pelvis and 201 women with endometriosis. We measured plasma concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, tumour necrosis factor-alpha, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and cancer antigens CA-125 and CA-19-9. Analyses were done using the Kruskal-Wallis test, Mann-Whitney test, receiver operator characteristic, stepwise logistic regression and least squares support vector machines (LSSVM). RESULTS: Plasma levels of IL-6, IL-8 and CA-125 were increased in all women with endometriosis and in those with minimal-mild endometriosis, compared with controls. In women with moderate-severe endometriosis, plasma levels of IL-6, IL-8 and CA-125, but also of hsCRP, were significantly higher than in controls. Using stepwise logistic regression, moderate-severe endometriosis was diagnosed with a sensitivity of 100% (specificity 84%) and minimal-mild endometriosis was detected with a sensitivity of 87% (specificity 71%) during the secretory phase. Using LSSVM analysis, minimal-mild endometriosis was diagnosed with a sensitivity of 94% (specificity 61%) during the secretory phase and with a sensitivity of 92% (specificity 63%) during the menstrual phase. CONCLUSIONS: Advanced statistical analysis of a panel of six selected plasma biomarkers on samples obtained during the secretory phase or during menstruation allows the diagnosis of both minimal-mild and moderate-severe endometriosis with high sensitivity and clinically acceptable specificity.


Subject(s)
Biomarkers/blood , Endometriosis/diagnosis , C-Reactive Protein/analysis , CA-125 Antigen/blood , CA-19-9 Antigen/blood , Case-Control Studies , Endometriosis/immunology , Female , Humans , Interleukin-6/blood , Interleukin-8/blood , Logistic Models , Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha/analysis
9.
Hum Reprod ; 24(12): 3025-32, 2009 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19690351

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The aim of our study was to test the hypothesis that multiple-sensory small-diameter nerve fibres are present in a higher density in endometrium from patients with endometriosis when compared with women with a normal pelvis, enabling the development of a semi-invasive diagnostic test for minimal-mild endometriosis. METHODS: Secretory phase endometrium samples (n = 40), obtained from women with laparoscopically/histologically confirmed minimal-mild endometriosis (n = 20) and from women with a normal pelvis (n = 20) were selected from the biobank at the Leuven University Fertility Centre. Immunohistochemistry was performed to localize neural markers for sensory C, Adelta, adrenergic and cholinergic nerve fibres in the functional layer of the endometrium. Sections were immunostained with anti-human protein gene product 9.5 (PGP9.5), anti-neurofilament protein, anti-substance P (SP), anti-vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP), anti-neuropeptide Y and anti-calcitonine gene-related polypeptide. Statistical analysis was done using the Mann-Whitney U-test, receiver operator characteristic analysis, stepwise logistic regression and least-squares support vector machines. RESULTS: The density of small nerve fibres was approximately 14 times higher in endometrium from patients with minimal-mild endometriosis (1.96 +/- 2.73) when compared with women with a normal pelvis (0.14 +/- 0.46, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The combined analysis of neural markers PGP9.5, VIP and SP could predict the presence of minimal-mild endometriosis with 95% sensitivity, 100% specificity and 97.5% accuracy. To confirm our findings, prospective studies are required.


Subject(s)
Diagnostic Techniques, Obstetrical and Gynecological , Endometriosis/diagnosis , Endometrium/innervation , Nerve Fibers/pathology , Adult , Biomarkers/metabolism , Biopsy , Endometriosis/pathology , Endometrium/pathology , Female , Humans , Immunohistochemistry , Luteal Phase , Severity of Illness Index , Statistics as Topic , Substance P/metabolism , Tissue Banks , Ubiquitin Thiolesterase/metabolism , Vasoactive Intestinal Peptide/metabolism
10.
Facts Views Vis Obgyn ; 1(3): 182-8, 2009.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25489463

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To build decision trees to predict intrauterine disease, based on a clinical data set, and using mathematical software. METHODS: Diagnostic algorithms were built and validated using the data of 402 consecutive patients who underwent grey scale ultrasound, followed by colour Doppler, saline infusion sonography (SIS), office hysteroscopy and endometrial-- sampling. The "final diagnosis" was classified as "abnormal" in case of endometrial polyps, hyperplasia or malignancy or intracavitary myoma. "Pre-test parameters" included patient's age, weight, length, parity, menopausal status, bleeding symptoms and cervical cytology; "post-test parameters" included ultrasound-, color Doppler-, SIS-, hysteroscopy- findings and histology results after endometrial sampling. Decision Tree #1 was built using both "pre-test" and "post-test" parameters; Tree #2 was only based on "post-test" parameters; Tree #3 was designed without using the hysteroscopy variables. The Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (Weka) software was used for the development of decision trees. RESULTS: All trees started with an imaging technique: hysteroscopy or SIS. The diagnostic accuracy was 88.3%, 88.3% and 84.0% for Tree #1, #2 and #3 respectively, the sensitivity and specificity was 95.5% and 82%, 97.7% and 80.0, 93.2 and 76.0%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The method used in this study enables the comparison between different decision trees containing multiple tests.

11.
Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol ; 31(3): 346-51, 2008 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18307203

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate and compare the pain experienced by women during transvaginal ultrasound, saline contrast sonohysterography (SCSH), diagnostic hysteroscopy and office sampling. METHODS: This was a descriptive study of 402 consecutive patients presenting at a 'one-stop' Bleeding Clinic between October 2004 and November 2006. Thirty-nine percent of the patients were postmenopausal. The patients underwent the following examinations transvaginally: first ultrasound with color Doppler, second SCSH, third diagnostic hysteroscopy and fourth endometrial biopsy. After completion of the examinations the patients were asked to complete a questionnaire including a visual analog scale (VAS) about their subjective appreciation of all four examinations. Two-hundred and ninety-three (72%) patients returned the questionnaire. RESULTS: The median (range) VAS scores for transvaginal ultrasound, SCSH, diagnostic hysteroscopy and endometrial sampling were 1.0 (0-8.1), 2.2 (0-10), 2.7 (0-10) and 5.1 (0-10), respectively (P < 0.0001). The patients' answers to the other questions about the pain experienced, including comparison with other minor procedures such as venous blood sampling, were all concordant with the VAS scores. CONCLUSIONS: Transvaginal ultrasound was the procedure best accepted, followed by SCSH, hysteroscopy and endometrial sampling. These results suggest that patients would prefer SCSH over hysteroscopy as an initial diagnostic approach in the evaluation of abnormal uterine bleeding.


Subject(s)
Hysteroscopy/methods , Pain/etiology , Uterine Hemorrhage/diagnosis , Uterus/diagnostic imaging , Adult , Analysis of Variance , Contrast Media , Female , Humans , Middle Aged , Pain/psychology , Pain Measurement , Patient Satisfaction , Postmenopause , Prospective Studies , Sodium Chloride , Surveys and Questionnaires , Ultrasonography , Uterine Hemorrhage/psychology , Uterus/pathology
12.
Pac Symp Biocomput ; : 279-90, 2008.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18229693

ABSTRACT

Microarray data are notoriously noisy such that models predicting clinically relevant outcomes often contain many false positive genes. Integration of other data sources can alleviate this problem and enhance gene selection and model building. Probabilistic models provide a natural solution to integrate information by using the prior over model space. We investigated if the use of text information from PUBMED abstracts in the structure prior of a Bayesian network could improve the prediction of the prognosis in cancer. Our results show that prediction of the outcome with the text prior was significantly better compared to not using a prior, both on a well known microarray data set and on three independent microarray data sets.


Subject(s)
Breast Neoplasms/genetics , Lung Neoplasms/genetics , Oligonucleotide Array Sequence Analysis/statistics & numerical data , Ovarian Neoplasms/genetics , Bayes Theorem , Computational Biology , Data Interpretation, Statistical , Databases, Genetic , Female , Humans , Male , Models, Genetic , Models, Statistical , Prognosis
13.
Hum Reprod ; 21(7): 1824-31, 2006 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16601010

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: As women present at earlier gestations to early pregnancy units (EPUs), the number of women diagnosed with a pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) increases. Some of these women will have an ectopic pregnancy (EP), and it is this group in the PUL population that poses the greatest concern. The aim of this study was to develop Bayesian networks to predict EPs in the PUL population. METHODS: Data were gathered in a single EPU from all women with a PUL. This data set was divided into a model-building (599 women with 44 EPs) and a validation (257 women with 22 EPs) data set and consisted of the following variables: vaginal bleeding, fluid in the pouch of Douglas, midline echo, lower abdominal pain, age, endometrial thickness, gestation days, the ratio of HCG at 48 and 0 h, progesterone levels (0 and 48 h) and the clinical outcome of the PUL. We developed Bayesian networks with expert information using this data set to predict EPs. RESULTS: The best Bayesian network used the gestational age, HCG ratio and the progesterone level at 48 h and had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.88 for predicting EPs when tested prospectively. CONCLUSIONS: Discrete-valued Bayesian networks are more complex to build than, for example, logistic regression. Nevertheless, we have demonstrated that such models can be used to predict EPs in a PUL population. Prospective interventional multicentre studies are needed to validate the use of such models in clinical practice.


Subject(s)
Bayes Theorem , Logistic Models , Pregnancy Outcome , Pregnancy, Ectopic , Adolescent , Adult , Chorionic Gonadotropin/blood , Female , Gestational Age , Humans , Predictive Value of Tests , Pregnancy , Prospective Studies
14.
Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol ; 26(7): 770-5, 2005 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16308901

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Various serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) discriminatory zones are currently used for evaluating the likelihood of an ectopic pregnancy in women classified as having a pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) following a transvaginal ultrasound examination. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of discriminatory zones for serum hCG levels of > 1000 IU/L, 1500 IU/L and 2000 IU/L for the detection of ectopic pregnancy in such women. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study of women who were assessed in a specialized transvaginal scanning unit. All women with a PUL had serum hCG measured at presentation. Expectant management of PULs was adopted. These women were followed up with transvaginal ultrasound, monitoring of serum hormone levels and laparoscopy until a final diagnosis was established: a failing PUL, an intrauterine pregnancy (IUP), an ectopic pregnancy or a persisting PUL. The persisting PULs probably represented ectopic pregnancies which had been missed on ultrasound and these were incorporated into the ectopic pregnancy group. Three different discriminatory zones (1000 IU/L, 1500 IU/L and 2000 IU/L) were evaluated for predicting ectopic pregnancy in this PUL population. RESULTS: A total of 5544 consecutive women presented to the early pregnancy unit between 25 June 2001 and 14 April 2003. Of these, 569 (10.3%) women were classified as having a PUL, 42 of which were lost to follow up. Of the 527 (9.5%) cases with PUL analyzed, there were 300 (56.9%) failing PULs, 181 (34.3%) IUPs and 46 (8.7%) ectopic pregnancies. Overall, 74.6% were symptomatic and 25.4% were asymptomatic (P = 8.825E-07). The sensitivity and specificity of an hCG level of > 1000 IU/L to detect ectopic pregnancy were 21.7% (10/46) and 87.3% (420/481), respectively; for an hCG level of > 1500 IU/L these values were 15.2% (7/46) and 93.4% (449/481), respectively, and for an hCG level of > 2000 IU/L they were 10.9% (5/46) and 95.2% (458/481), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Varying the discriminatory zone does not significantly improve the detection of ectopic pregnancy in a PUL population. A single measurement of serum hCG is not only potentially falsely reassuring but also unhelpful in excluding the presence of an ectopic pregnancy.


Subject(s)
Chorionic Gonadotropin/blood , Pregnancy, Ectopic/diagnosis , Biomarkers/blood , Female , Humans , Predictive Value of Tests , Pregnancy , Pregnancy, Ectopic/diagnostic imaging , Prospective Studies , Sensitivity and Specificity , Ultrasonography, Prenatal
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