Utilizing disease transmission and response capacities to optimize covid-19 control in Malaysia.

OBJECTIVES: Public Health Social Measures (PHSM) such as movement restriction movement needed to be adjusted accordingly during the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure low disease transmission alongside adequate health system capacities based on the COVID-19 situational matrix proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO). This paper aims to develop a mechanism to determine the COVID-19 situational matrix to adjust movement restriction intensity for the control of COVID-19 in Malaysia. METHODS: Several epidemiological indicators were selected based on the WHO PHSM interim guidance report and validated individually and in several combinations to estimate the community transmission level (CT) and health system response capacity (RC) variables. Correlation analysis between CT and RC with COVID-19 cases was performed to determine the most appropriate CT and RC variables. Subsequently, the CT and RC variables were combined to form a composite COVID-19 situational matrix (SL). The SL matrix was validated using correlation analysis with COVID-19 case trends. Subsequently, an automated web-based system that generated daily CT, RC, and SL was developed. RESULTS: CT and RC variables were estimated using case incidence and hospitalization rate; Hospital bed capacity and COVID-19 ICU occupancy respectively. The estimated CT and RC were strongly correlated [ρ = 0.806 (95% CI 0.752, 0.848); and ρ = 0.814 (95% CI 0.778, 0.839), p < 0.001] with the COVID-19 cases. The estimated SL was strongly correlated with COVID-19 cases (ρ = 0.845, p < 0.001) and responded well to the various COVID-19 case trends during the pandemic. SL changes occurred earlier during the increase of cases but slower during the decrease, indicating a conservative response. The automated web-based system developed produced daily real-time CT, RC, and SL for the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The indicators selected and combinations formed were able to generate validated daily CT and RC levels for Malaysia. Subsequently, the CT and RC levels were able to provide accurate and sensitive information for the estimation of SL which provided valuable evidence on the progression of the pandemic and movement restriction adjustment for the control of Malaysia.

Diagnostic performance of Xpert MTB/RIF ultra in detecting Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Rifampicin Resistance in AFB Smear-negative Pulmonary and Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis samples in Malaysia.

Rapid and highly accurate diagnostic tools are critically needed to diagnose Mycobacterium tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance in AFB smear-negative samples. In this study, we evaluated the diagnostic performance of Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Ultra) as a rapid test to diagnose tuberculosis in smear-negative cases in Malaysia. A retrospective study of 1960 smear-negative pulmonary and extrapulmonary samples obtained from patients was conducted. Culture was used as the reference standard for the study. The overall sensitivity and specificity of Ultra on the tested samples were 88.7 % and 77.2 %, respectively, while the PPV was 32.3 % and the NPV was 98.2 %. Ultra showed slightly higher sensitivity in pulmonary (89.9 %) compared to extrapulmonary samples (86.1 %). The overall accuracy of Ultra was 78.5 % (kappa=0.37; 95 %CI: 0.32,0.42). Ultra showed good diagnostic accuracy for detecting MTB and rifampicin resistance in various AFB smear-negative samples. Ultra also had excellent capability in rifampicin resistance detection.

Validity and reliability of the Malay language Perception Towards Smoking Questionnaire (BM-PTSQ) among secondary school adolescents: Further validation using Confirmatory Factor Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Perception is an essential factor influencing smoking among adolescents. Thus, a valid tool for measuring perception is a requisite in smoking studies. This study further establishes the validity and reliability of a Malay language version of the Perception Towards Smoking Questionnaire (BM-PTSQ) for assessing the perception of smoking among secondary school-going adolescents in Malaysia. METHODS: We administered the BM-PTSQ to 669 secondary school students selected through multistage sampling; 60% of respondents were male (n=398), and 69.9% (n=463) were from rural areas. Respondents were aged 13-16 years, 36.4% (n=241) were 13 years, 40.0% (n=265) were 14 years, and 23.6% (n=156) were 16 years old. We used parallel and exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to determine the domains of the questionnaire. In addition, we also employed EFA, confirmatory factor analyses (CFA), and Cronbach's alpha to evaluate the construct validity and reliability of the BM-PTSQ. RESULTS: EFA and parallel analysis identified two domains in the BM-PTSQ that accounted for 62.9% of the observed variance, and CFA confirmed the two-domain structure. The two domains' internal consistency scores ranged from 0.702 to 0.80, which suggested adequate reliability. CONCLUSIONS: The BM-PTSQ has acceptable psychometric validity and is appropriate for assessing smoking perception and intention among Malaysian secondary school-aged youth. Researchers should further evaluate this tool's applicability in a more sociodemographically diverse population.

Does Awareness of Malaysian Healthy Plate Associate with Adequate Fruit and Vegetable Intake among Malaysian Adults with Non-Communicable Diseases?

The healthy eating plate concept has been introduced in many countries, including Malaysia, as a visual guide for the public to eat healthily. The relationship between Malaysian Healthy Plate (MHP) and adequate fruit and vegetable (FV) intake among morbid Malaysian adults is unknown. Hence, we investigated the relationship between awareness of the MHP and FV intake among morbid Malaysian adults. National survey data on 9760 morbid Malaysian adults aged 18 years and above were analyzed. The relationship between awareness of MHP and FV intake among Malaysian adults with obesity, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia were determined using multivariable logistic regression controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle risk factors. Our data demonstrated that MHP awareness is associated with adequate FV intake among the Malaysian adults with abdominal obesity (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.86, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-3.29), diabetes mellitus (aOR: 4.88, 95% CI: 2.13-22.18), hypertension (aOR: 4.39, 95% CI: 1.96-9.83), and hypercholesterolemia (aOR: 4.16, 95% CI: 1.48-11.72). Our findings indicated the necessity for ongoing efforts by policymakers, healthcare professionals, and nutrition educators to promote the concept of MHP and ensure that morbid Malaysian adults consume a sufficient intake of FV or adopt a healthy eating pattern to achieve and maintain optimal health.

Secondary and Co-Infections in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients: A Multicenter Cross-Sectional Study in Malaysia.

Bacterial and fungal secondary and co-infections are commonly identified with viral respiratory infections. This study was undertaken to determine the incidence and factors associated with bacterial and fungal infections in patients with COVID-19 as well as antibiotics prescription patterns within the first and second waves of the outbreak in Malaysia. Clinical records of 3532 COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals in Malaysia between 4 February and 4 August 2020 were analyzed. Co-morbidities, clinical features, investigations, treatment, and complications were captured using the REDCap database. Culture and sensitivity test results were retrieved from the WHONET database. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to identify associated determinants. A total of 161 types of bacterial and fungal infections were found in 81 patients, i.e., 2.3%. The most common bacterial cultures were Gram-negative, i.e., Pseudomonas aeruginosa (15.3%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (13.9%). The most common fungal isolate was Candida albicans (41.2%). Augmentin, ceftriaxone, tazocin, meropenem, and azithromycin were the five most frequently prescribed antibiotics. The latter four were classified under the "Watch" category in the WHO AwaRe list. Our data showed that bacterial and fungal secondary and co-infections were frequently found in severely ill COVID-19 patients and were associated with a higher mortality rate.

Forecasting the effects of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia using SEIRV compartmental models.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-vaccinated (SEIRV) models to examine the effects of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case trends in Malaysia during Phase 3 of the National COVID-19 Immunization Program amidst the Delta outbreak. METHODS: SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison. RESULTS: In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on dengue cases in Malaysia.

Background: Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the transmission dynamics and distribution of dengue. Therefore, this study aims to describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the geographic and demographic distribution of dengue incidence in Malaysia. Methods: This study analyzed dengue cases from January 2014 to December 2021 and COVID-19 confirmed cases from January 2020 to December 2021 which was divided into the pre (2014 to 2019) and during COVID-19 pandemic (2020 to 2021) phases. The average annual dengue case incidence for geographical and demographic subgroups were calculated and compared between the pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic phases. In addition, Spearman rank correlation was performed to determine the correlation between weekly dengue and COVID-19 cases during the COVID-19 pandemic phase. Results: Dengue trends in Malaysia showed a 4-year cyclical trend with dengue case incidence peaking in 2015 and 2019 and subsequently decreasing in the following years. Reductions of 44.0% in average dengue cases during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic phase was observed at the national level. Higher dengue cases were reported among males, individuals aged 20-34 years, and Malaysians across both phases. Weekly dengue cases were significantly correlated (ρ = -0.901) with COVID-19 cases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusion: There was a reduction in dengue incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic phase. Significant reductions were observed across all demographic groups except for the older population (>75 years) across the two phases.

Resurgence of Dengue Virus Serotype 4 in Malaysia: A Comprehensive Clinicodemographic and Genomic Analysis.

Dengue virus serotype 4 (DENV-4) has been the rarest circulating serotype in Malaysia, resulting in it being an understudied area. A recent observation from institutional surveillance data indicated a rapid increase in DENV-4-infected cases. The present study aimed to investigate the resurgence of DENV-4 in relation to the demographic, clinical and genomic profiles of 75 retrospective dengue samples. First, the demographic and clinical profiles obtained between 2017 and July 2022 were statistically assessed. Samples with good quality were subjected to full genome sequencing on the Illumina Next Seq 500 platform and the genome data were analysed for the presence of mutations. The effect of the mutations of interest was studied via an in silico computational approach using SWISS-MODEL and AlphaFold2 programs. The predominance of DENV-4 was discovered from 2021 to 2022, with a prevalence of 64.3% (n = 9/14) and 89.2% (n = 33/37), respectively. Two clades with a genetic divergence of 2.8% were observed within the dominant genotype IIa. The majority of DENV-4-infected patients presented with gastrointestinal symptoms, such as vomiting (46.7%), persistent diarrhoea (30.7%) and abdominal pain (13.3%). Two mutations, His50Tyr and Pro144Ser, located at the wing domain of the NS1 protein were discovered to be unique to the recently sequenced DENV-4.

Prevalence and Determinants of Depressive Symptoms among Young Adolescents in Malaysia: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Depression is the most common mental health problem affecting adolescents globally, wherein its increasing prevalence together with the negative health impacts escalates the need for further research in this area. This work determined the prevalence and factors associated with depressive symptoms among young adolescents in Malaysia. A total of 1350 adolescent aged 13 to 14 years in school across nine secondary schools in Selangor state, Malaysia participated in a cross-sectional study. Independent variables were examined using the using the Global School-Based Student Health Survey included age, gender, ethnicity, alcohol intake, smoking and illicit drug use, loneliness, bullying, parental marital status, income and supervision; and the Health Literacy and Stigma questionnaire examined mental health literacy levels. Depressive symptoms were the dependent variable which was examined using the Center for Epidemiology Study Depression (CESD) instrument. Prevalence of depressive symptoms among all participants was 19 % (95% CI [16.9, 21.2]), with a higher prevalence of depressive symptoms being reported among females 26.3% (95% CI [23.0, 29.8]) compared to males 11.7% (95% CI [9.4, 14.4]). Determinants namely females (AOR = 3.83; 95% CI [2.66, 5.52]), smoking (AOR = 6.16; 95% CI [3.15, 12.05]), been bullied (AOR = 3.70; 95% CI [2.51, 5.47]), felt lonely (AOR = 10.46; 95% CI [7.09, 15.42]) and having no parental supervision (AOR = 1.79; 95% CI [1.26, 2.53]) significantly increased the odds of depressive symptoms among all adolescents in the multivariate model. In addition, feeling lonely, being bullied and smoking were identified as common significant determinants of depressive symptoms across both genders. Feeling lonely (65% to 71%) and being bullied (10% to 19%) were ranked as the most important determinants of depressive symptoms among young adolescents. Tackling these factors would be instrumental in helping decision makers formulate depression prevention strategies and activities for adolescents.

Development and user testing study of MozzHub: a bipartite network-based dengue hotspot detector.

Traditionally, dengue is controlled by fogging, and the prime location for the control measure is at the patient's residence. However, when Malaysia was hit by the first wave of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and the government-imposed movement control order, dengue cases have decreased by more than 30% from the previous year. This implies that residential areas may not be the prime locations for dengue-infected mosquitoes. The existing early warning system was focused on temporal prediction wherein the lack of consideration for spatial component at the microlevel and human mobility were not considered. Thus, we developed MozzHub, which is a web-based application system based on the bipartite network-based dengue model that is focused on identifying the source of dengue infection at a small spatial level (400 m) by integrating human mobility and environmental predictors. The model was earlier developed and validated; therefore, this study presents the design and implementation of the MozzHub system and the results of a preliminary pilot test and user acceptance of MozzHub in six district health offices in Malaysia. It was found that the MozzHub system is well received by the sample of end-users as it was demonstrated as a useful (77.4%), easy-to-operate system (80.6%), and has achieved adequate client satisfaction for its use (74.2%).

Agreement between the Fagerström test for nicotine dependence (FTND) and the heaviness of smoking index (HSI) for assessing the intensity of nicotine dependence among daily smokers.

INTRODUCTION: Measuring the level of nicotine addiction among smokers is an integral part of enhancing smoking cessation as nicotine dependence is one of the barriers to smoking cessation. In this study, we compared the level of agreement between FTND and HSI in detecting high nicotine dependence among daily smokers. METHODS: We collected data from participants of a public smoking cessation clinic in Selangor. A trained pharmacist conducted face-to-face interviews with 152 daily smokers using a structured validated questionnaire. Respondents were classified as having high nicotine dependence using both the HSI (score ≥4) and the FTND (score ≥6), and concordance between the two measures, kappa statistics and sensitivity, specificity of the HSI were then determined with the FTND classification as the reference standard. RESULTS: The HSI had a substantial agreement with the FTND (Cohen's kappa=0.72) in measuring high levels of nicotine addiction, with good sensitivity (83.3%) and specificity (89.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the HSI can be used instead of the FTND in clinical-based investigations to screen for high nicotine dependence among daily smokers in the clinical setting.

Validation of the Malay Version of the Decisional Balance Inventory (MDBI) among secondary school-going adolescents.

INTRODUCTION: The Decisional Balance Inventory is a tool used to measure propensity to maintain or change a habit which takes into consideration the perceived advantages and disadvantages. This study aimed to establish the validity and reliability of a Malay language version of the DBI for assessing inclination for change in smoking behavior among secondary school-going adolescents in Malaysia. METHODS: We administered the MDBI to 669 secondary school students selected through multistage sampling. The sample consisted of 60.1% male (n=398) and 39.9% (n=264) female students, more than two-thirds (69.9%, n=463) of which were from rural areas. The majority of the respondents were aged 13-14 years [13 years, 36.4% (n=241), 14 years, 40.0% (n=265), 16 years, 23.6% (n=156)]. The construct validity of the MDBI was assessed using explanatory (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and the reliability of the MDBI via Cronbach's alpha. RESULTS: EFA and parallel analysis extracted three factors in the MDBI that accounted for 65.4% of the observed variance, and this was supported by CFA. Internal consistency of the three factors ranged from 0.734 to 0.867, indicating acceptable reliability. CONCLUSIONS: The MDBI has good psychometric properties and is suitable for measuring smoking intention among Malaysian secondary school-going adolescents. However, it should continue to be tested to expand its usefulness and applicability among adolescents in other sociodemographic settings.

The pattern in prevalence and sociodemographic factors of smoking in Malaysia, 2011-2019: Findings from national surveys.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality worldwide, with Malaysia no exception. Through the Ministry of Health and other ministries in the government of Malaysia, numerous anti-smoking measures have been introduced to prevent and control smoking in the country. Continuous monitoring of smoking prevalence in the community is essential in order to evaluate the effectiveness of anti-smoking policies. This study aims to update the sociodemographic factors associated with smoking in the past decade in Malaysia. METHODS: The study utilized data from three national household surveys in Malaysia, namely the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) 2011, the National Health and Morbidity Survey (NHMS) 2015 and the National Health and Morbidity Survey (NHMS) 2019. These surveys adopted a multistage stratified sampling design that represents the population in Malaysia. Smoking status was determined based on the GATS protocol and definitions. Complex sample design estimates and complex multivariable logistic regression were used in the analysis. RESULTS: A total of 4250, 21410 and 11111 respondents aged ≥15 years participated in GATS 2011, NHMS 2015 and NHMS 2019, respectively, with a response rate between 85% and 87%. The prevalence of smoking was 23.1% (95% CI: 21.2-25.2) in 2011, 22.8% (95% CI: 21.9-23.8) in 2015 and 21.3% (95% CI: 19.9-22.8) in 2019. The prevalence was consistently higher in males (40.5-43.9%), adults aged 25-44 years (25.4-29.0%), Malay (22.6-24.7%), other ethnicities (30.0-35.0%), and the self-employed (33.7-44.6%). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of smoking was higher in males, in younger and middle age groups, Malays, and those with lower education level. CONCLUSIONS: There were slight changes in the sociodemographic factors of smoking in the past decade in Malaysia. Stern measures and more aggressive strategies are needed to address all the risk factors in controlling smoking behavior in the country.

Correlation between Population Density and COVID-19 Cases during the Third Wave in Malaysia: Effect of the Delta Variant.

In this study, we describe the incidence and distribution of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia at district level and determine their correlation with absolute population and population density, before and during the period that the Delta variant was dominant in Malaysia. METHODS: Data on the number of locally transmitted COVID-19 cases in each of the 145 districts in Malaysia, between 20 September 2020 and 19 September 2021, were manually extracted from official reports. The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases, population and population density of each district were described using choropleth maps. The correlation between population and population density with the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in each district in the pre-Delta dominant period (20 September 2020-29 June 2021) and during the Delta dominant period (30 June 2021-19 September 2021) were determined using Pearson's correlation. RESULTS: COVID-19 cases were strongly correlated with both absolute population and population density (Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) = 0.87 and r = 0.78, respectively). A majority of the districts had higher numbers of COVID-19 cases during the Delta dominant period compared to the pre-Delta period. The correlation coefficient in the pre-Delta dominant period was r = 0.79 vs. r = 0.86 during the Delta dominant period, whereas the pre-Delta dominant population density was r = 0.72, and in the Delta dominant period, r = 0.76. CONCLUSION: More populous and densely populated districts have a higher risk of transmission of COVID-19, especially with the Delta variant as the dominant circulating strain. Therefore, extra and more stringent control measures should be instituted in highly populated areas to control the spread of COVID-19.

Assessment of association between smoking and all-cause mortality among Malaysian adult population: Findings from a retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is a known risk factor for many chronic diseases. Illness and death due to smoking are a significant public health burden in many countries. This study aims to address the information gap in smoking-related mortality in Malaysia by estimating the risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortalities due to smoking among Malaysian adults. METHODS: We analyzed data on 2525 respondents, aged 24-64 years, of the Malaysian Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance survey conducted September 2005 to February 2006. Mortality records from the Malaysian National Registration Department were linked to the MYNCDS-1 data to determine respondents' mortality status over 12 years from 2006 to 2018. Associations between smoking and all-cause mortalities were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression with adjustments for non-communicable disease and sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: The prevalence of daily smoking was 21.2% (95% CI: 19.0-23.7). During the 31668 person-years follow-up, 213 deaths from all causes occurred, where 68 deaths were among smokers (13.2%), and 452 were among non-smokers (6.3%). Smoking was associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ration, AHR=1.79; 95% CI: 1.12- 2.97). These associations remained significant after excluding mortalities in the first two years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Daily smoking is associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause death. Behavioral and pharmacological smoking cessation interventions should be intensified among smokers to reduce the risk of mortality.

Correlates of dual/poly tobacco use among school-going adolescents in Malaysia: Findings from a nationwide school-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Dual/poly tobacco use is common among youths globally. However, in Malaysia information on dual/poly tobacco use is scarce, thus the present study examines the prevalence and factors associated with dual/poly tobacco users among school-going adolescents in Malaysia. METHODS: We derived data on tobacco and e-cigarette use among Malaysian adolescents from a nationwide school-based study conducted in 2016. A total of 13135 adolescents responded in the cross-sectional survey which used multi-stage sampling to select a representative sample of school-going adolescents aged 11-19 years. A standard validated questionnaire was used to obtain the data and multiple logistic regression was conducted to assess factors associated with dual/ poly tobacco use. RESULTS: The prevalence of dual/poly tobacco use was 6.5%, more than half of which were both conventional and e-cigarette users. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that the likelihood of dual tobacco use was significantly higher among males (AOR=14.73; 95% CI: 9.11-23.81), secondary school students, those aged 16-19 years (AOR=5.99; 95% CI: 4.04-8.87), natives of Sabah (AOR=7.41; 95% CI: 3.48-15.79), and those never been taught on the health hazards of tobacco at school, exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) at home, school or other public areas, and had a positive perception of e-cigarettes and lower perception of the harms of tobacco smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Although the prevalence of dual/poly users was still low among Malaysian school-going adolescents, proactive measures should be taken to reduce dual tobacco use among youth in Malaysia with focus on the factors identified in this study.

Gender Differences in Factors Associated with the Total Delay in Treatment of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients: A Cross-Sectional Study in Selangor, Malaysia.

Background: Gender plays a significant role in health-care-seeking behavior for many diseases. Delays in seeking treatment, diagnosis, and treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis (pTB) may increase the risk of transmission in the community and lead to poorer treatment outcomes and mortality. This study explores the differences in factors associated with the total delay in treatment of male and female pTB patients in Selangor, Malaysia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from January 2017 to December 2017. Newly diagnosed pTB patients (≥18 years) were recruited from selected government health clinics and hospitals in Selangor during the specified study period. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle, knowledge about pTB, stigma, distance to the nearest health facility, and chronology of pTB symptom onset, diagnosis, and treatment. The total delay was measured as the length of time between the onset of pTB symptoms to treatment initiation. Factors significantly associated with a longer total delay among men and women were identified using binary logistic regression. Results: A total of 732 patients (61.5% men, 38.5% women) were enrolled in the study. The median total delay was 60 days. Men who have weight loss as a symptom (AOR: 1.63, 95%CI: 1.10-2.41) and are employed (1.89, 1.15-3.11) were more likely to have a longer total delay, while those who know others who have had pTB (0.64, 0.43-0.96) were less likely to have a longer total delay. On the other hand, among women, having a stigma towards TB (0.52, 0.32-0.84) and obtaining a pTB diagnosis at the first medical consultation (0.48, 0.29-0.79) were associated with a shorter total delay. Conclusion: Factors associated with the total delay in pTB treatment were different for male and female pTB patients. Increasing awareness of pTB symptoms and the importance of seeking early medical consultation and a prompt diagnosis among the general public may reduce total delay in pTB treatment.

COVID-19 in Malaysia: Descriptive Epidemiologic Characteristics of the First Wave.

This study aimed to describe the characteristics of COVID-19 cases and close contacts during the first wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia (23 January 2020 to 26 February 2020), and to analyse the reasons why the outbreak did not continue to spread and lessons that can be learnt from this experience. Characteristics of the cases and close contacts, spatial spread, epidemiological link, and timeline of the cases were examined. An extended SEIR model was developed using several parameters such as the average number of contacts per day per case, the proportion of close contact traced per day and the mean daily rate at which infectious cases are isolated to determine the basic reproduction number (R0) and trajectory of cases. During the first wave, a total of 22 cases with 368 close contacts were traced, identified, tested, quarantine and isolated. Due to the effective and robust outbreak control measures put in place such as early case detection, active screening, extensive contact tracing, testing and prompt isolation/quarantine, the outbreak was successfully contained and controlled. The SEIR model estimated the R0 at 0.9 which further supports the decreasing disease dynamics and early termination of the outbreak. As a result, there was a 11-day gap (free of cases) between the first and second wave which indicates that the first wave was not linked to the second wave.

Assessing the Spatiotemporal Spread Pattern of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Malaysia.

Introduction: The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected human health and socioeconomic backgrounds. This study examined the spatiotemporal spread pattern of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia from the index case to 291,774 cases in 13 months, emphasizing on the spatial autocorrelation of the high-risk cluster events and the spatial scan clustering pattern of transmission. Methodology: We obtained the confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Malaysia from the official GitHub repository of Malaysia's Ministry of Health from January 25, 2020 to February 24, 2021, 1 day before the national vaccination program was initiated. All analyses were based on the daily cumulated cases, which are derived from the sum of retrospective 7 days and the current day for smoothing purposes. We examined the daily global, local spatial autocorrelation and scan statistics of COVID-19 cases at district level using Moran's I and SaTScan™. Results: At the initial stage of the outbreak, Moran's I index > 0.5 (p < 0.05) was observed. Local Moran's I depicted the high-high cluster risk expanded from west to east of Malaysia. The cases surged exponentially after September 2020, with the high-high cluster in Sabah, from Kinabatangan on September 1 (cumulative cases = 9,354; Moran's I = 0.34; p < 0.05), to 11 districts on October 19 (cumulative cases = 21,363, Moran's I = 0.52, p < 0.05). The most likely cluster identified from space-time scanning was centered in Jasin, Melaka (RR = 11.93; p < 0.001) which encompassed 36 districts with a radius of 178.8 km, from November 24, 2020 to February 24, 2021, followed by the Sabah cluster. Discussion and Conclusion: Both analyses complemented each other in depicting underlying spatiotemporal clustering risk, giving detailed space-time spread information at district level. This daily analysis could be valuable insight into real-time reporting of transmission intensity, and alert for the public to avoid visiting the high-risk areas during the pandemic. The spatiotemporal transmission risk pattern could be used to monitor the spread of the pandemic.

Effectiveness of the movement control measures during the third wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

OBJECTIVES: Starting in March 2020, movement control measures were instituted across several phases in Malaysia to break the chain of transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the effects of the various phases of movement control measures on disease transmissibility and the trend of cases during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia. METHODS: Three SEIR models were developed using the R programming software ODIN interface based on COVID-19 case data from September 1, 2020, to March 29, 2021. The models were validated and subsequently used to provide forecasts of daily cases from October 14, 2020, to March 29, 2021, based on 3 phases of movement control measures. RESULTS: We found that the reproduction rate (R-value) of COVID-19 decreased by 59.1% from an initial high of 2.2 during the nationwide Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) to 0.9 during the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO) phases. In addition, the observed cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases were much lower than the forecasted cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases (by 64.4-98.9% and 68.8-99.8%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The movement control measures progressively reduced the R-value during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, more stringent movement control measures such as the MCO and CMCO were effective for further lowering the R-value and case numbers during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia due to their higher stringency than the nationwide RMCO.