Advancing the understanding of forest conservation dynamics through livelihood and landscape change scenarios: a case study in Chiapas, Mexico.

Forest conversion and conservation in rural settings are linked to both social and biophysical drivers. However, the joint analysis of these drivers presents methodological challenges. To address this problem, we propose a novel methodology to explore the relationship between livelihood heterogeneity and land use change at the community level. It combines the concept of archetype with the accounting scheme of MUlti-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism to define and quantify the characteristics of livelihood typologies in socioeconomic (time use, financial flows) and ecological terms (land use, agricultural inputs, soil degradation). Conservation trade-offs of potential policies are explored through "what if" scenarios assuming changes in off-farm opportunities, population growth, and conservation/farming subsidies. The approach is tested with a case study of the community of San Isidro, in Chiapas, Mexico. We conclude that the concept of livelihood typologies is useful to inform the debate over conservation prospects in rural environments. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-023-02965-z.

Identification of inference fallacies in solid waste generation estimations of developing countries. A case-study in Panama.

The absence of sound sampling procedures and statistical analyses to estimate solid waste generation in many developing countries has resulted in incomplete historical records of waste quantity and composition. Data is often arbitrarily aggregated or disaggregated as a function of waste generators to obtain results at the desired spatial level of analysis. Inference fallacies arising from the generalization or individualization of results are almost never considered. In this paper, Panama, one of the fastest-growing developing countries, was used as a case-study to review the main methodological approaches to estimate solid waste generation per capita per day, and at different hierarchical levels (from households to the country). The solid waste generation intensity indicator is used by the Panamanian waste management authority to run the waste management system. It was also the main parameter employed by local and foreign companies to estimate solid waste generation in Panama between 2001 and 2008. The methodological approaches used by these companies were mathematically formalized and classified as per the expressions suggested by Subramanian et al. (2009). Seven inference fallacies (ecological, individualistic, stage, floating population, linear forecasting, average population and mixed spatial levels) were identified and allocated to the studies. Foreign companies committed three of the seven inference fallacies, while one was committed by the local entity. Endogenous knowledge played an important role in these studies to avoid spatial levels mismatch and multilevel measurements appear to produce more reliable information than studies obtained via other means.

Exploration of the environmental implications of ageing conventional oil reserves with relational analysis.

A novel method based on relational analysis is presented for assessing the performance of conventional oil exploitation and its environmental implications, with a focus on the energy-water nexus. It considers the energy system as a metabolic network and integrates various factors relevant for technical, economic and environmental processes, thus avoiding some of the simplifications inherent in conventional approaches to the assessment of primary resource quality, such as economic cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and the energy return on investment (EROI). Relational analysis distinguishes between functional (notional) and structural (tangible) elements in the metabolic network, which allows a simultaneous characterization and geo-localization of the exploitation process across different scales and dimensions of analysis. Key aspects of the approach are illustrated with data from the Ecuadorian oil sector spanning the period 1972-2018. It is shown that by establishing a relation among the characteristics of the exploited oil fields (oil typology, age of field) and those of the exploitation process (requirement of energy carriers, labor, freshwater and power capacity and generation of greenhouse gases and oil-produced water), changes in the performance and environmental implications of the oil extraction system can be characterized at different points in space and time.

Isolated yet open: A metabolic analysis of Menorca.

Small islands are vulnerable to climate change, and at the same time contribute to local and global environmental problems with the intensification of tourist activities. Whereas there are many studies on the resource requirements or environmental impacts of small islands, there are few efforts to integrate information that is often analysed separately. Metabolic analysis, beyond quantifying biophysical flows, studies how society transforms these flows to reproduce the identity of the whole. This study applies the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach, to analyse the environmental and economic performance of different economic activities in the Mediterranean island of Menorca (Spain). The openness of the metabolic system (observed in the dependence on imports) and externalization of environmental impact are illustrated using the examples of the cheese and tourist industry. The results show that a higher economic performance in terms of value added is associated with activities in industry and services with a larger dependence on imports of "external resources" - fuel for transportation, milk for cheese, seasonal workers and "paying capacity" of tourists. This dependence reduces local environmental pressures and also adaptation capacity, since decisions made in Menorca may have limited impact elsewhere. Local agriculture depends less on external resources but it is limited by the low economic productivity of land and labour. An integrated analysis of the relations between metabolic rates and densities of flows in the different compartments of the society provides a holistic picture of sustainability issues and can contribute to decision-making by avoiding partial information.

A multiscale integrated analysis of the factors characterizing the sustainability of food systems in Europe.

Considering the existing world population, set of environmental impacts, and predicted changes in dietary trends, one can expect that, in the coming decades, food security will remain high on the list of sustainability concerns. In relation to this challenge, Europe's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) must address a diverse set of goals: (i) guarantee a stable and affordable food supply; (ii) preserve the socioeconomic stability of farmers by guaranteeing their economic viability; (iii) protect the environment by reducing pressures on agroecosystems; and (iv) improve food security by reducing import dependence. Policies related to these diverse goals are likely to generate adverse side-effects. A particularly uncomfortable concern is Europe's massive reliance on imported feed commodities. The European Union (EU) is unlikely to be capable of domestically producing currently imported agricultural commodities and a significant move to internalize imports would dramatically increase pressures on local ecosystems. Faced with that potential predicament, it is essential to have a robust information system capable of simultaneously addressing a variety of policy concerns. In response, this paper presents a novel accounting framework-Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM)-capable of generating an integrated set of indicators entangled across different scales and dimensions of analysis. Our versatile approach establishes a set of quantitative relations between: (i) the dietary intake of the society (desirability of the food supply); (ii) processes under human control (viability of the food system); (iii) processes outside of human control and associated with external biophysical limits determined by embedding ecosystems (feasibility of the food system); and (iv) the dependence on imported products (food security). The analysis of such relations can be tailored to the legitimate perceptions of different social actors affected by policies, anticipating potential conflicts and providing useful information for deliberation and negotiation. Our approach is illustrated with an analysis of the European agricultural system, covering the EU-27 plus the UK and Norway.

[Post-Normal Pandemics: why CoViD-19 requires a new approach to science.] / Pandemie post-normali. Perché CoViD-19 richiede un nuovo approccio alla scienza.

In addressing pandemics, science has never seemed more needed and useful, while at the same time limited and powerless. The existing contract between science and society is falling apart. A new covenant is urgently needed to navigate the days ahead.

Robust information for effective municipal solid waste policies: Identifying behaviour of waste generation across spatial levels of organization.

Existing studies have studied influencing factors of MSW generation behaviour at different spatial levels of organization, but always one at a time and not simultaneously. Income is a strong influencing factor, affecting MSW generation from the individual to the country level, capable of hiding the effects of the others. This study shows that when MSW generation behaviour is holistically analysed across multiple levels of organization (individuals, households, and communities) hierarchically organized as functional units of MSW generation within a specific study area, it is possible to identify influencing factors in addition to income (education, demographic, health, ethnic, economic activity and financial types) as explanatory variables. Increasing the number of influencing factors of MSW generation makes it possible to create a robust knowledge base for MSW management policies in fast-growing urban areas of developing countries, improving the information used to select proper policies and plans within their MSW management systems and avoiding overlapping policies causing legal gaps. Betania, an urban area of the Panama City district, has been chosen as a case study area. The results show that the household income explains 86% of its members MSW generation and the community indigenous population explains 21% of households MSW generation. It is concluded that MSW generation is not linear across levels, it has as many degrees of freedom as influencing factors shaping the levels of organization where functional units generating waste exist. Influencing factors appearing at each spatial level affects MSW generation in an interdependent manner in variable degrees of magnitude.

Landfill reactions to society actions: The case of local and global air pollutants of Cerro Patacón in Panama.

This paper studies landfill emissions and the related environmental and health risks in Panama City, with the aim to sensitize the population about the harmful effects of irresponsible resource consumption and non-deliberate solid waste generation that it is disposed of in an uncontrolled manner in landfills. Empirical data on Cerro Patacón, Panama City's landfill was obtained to describe the status of municipal waste disposal. Ten known methane generation models were used to estimate the yearly emission rate of methane from the landfill for a 100-year period starting from its inception in 1986. From the models used, the GasSIM model was chosen to estimate emission rates of six long-term hazardous air pollutants. The AERMOD source dispersion model was used to simulate their atmospheric downwind dispersion by levels of concentration over nearby affected communities; results were mapped in Google Earth. The relative contributions by population of the 32 towns making up Panama City to the forecasted waste generation in 2022 and related hazardous air pollutants emission rates from the landfill were assessed. It was found that Cerro Patacón will generate 45% of the countrywide methane generation by 2022; an average of 47 Gg. The solid waste generated by the 1.5 million inhabitants of Panama City impacts the health of ~73,600 inhabitants in nearby communities through the dispersion of hazardous atmospheric pollutants derived from the landfill. The highest emission rates were from hydrogen sulfide and dichloromethane, which can be largely attributed to the waste generated by the communities of Juan Diaz and Tocúmen. The concentration of hydrogen sulfide and benzene was over the reference concentration (uncertainty factor spanning three orders of magnitude) for all communities and years simulated. The concentration of vinyl chloride was over the RfC for all communities and years simulated, except in 2018 for 12 communities.

Structuring an integrated water-energy-food nexus assessment of a local wind energy desalination system for irrigation.

Desalination is increasingly put forward as a sustainable local solution to water scarcity in combination with the exploitation of renewable energy sources. However, the complexity of the resource nexus entails the unavoidable existence of pros and cons across its various dimensions that can only be assessed at different scales of analysis. In turn, these pros and cons entail different winners and losers among the different social actors linked through the nexus. To address these challenges, a novel approach to resource nexus assessment is put forward, based on multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM) and recognizing the resource nexus as a wicked problem. The integrated representation identifies the existence of biophysical constraints determined by processes both under human control (in the technosphere) and beyond human control (in the biosphere). The approach is illustrated with a local case study of desalination in the Canary Islands, Spain. The material presented has been generated in the context of the project "Moving towards adaptive governance in complexity: Informing nexus security" (MAGIC) for use in participatory processes of co-production of knowledge claims about desalination, a prerequisite for informed policy deliberation.

The precautionary principle and ecological hazards of genetically modified organisms.

This paper makes three points relevant to the application of the precautionary principle to the regulation of GMOs. i) The unavoidable arbitrariness in the application of the precautionary principle reflects a deeper epistemological problem affecting scientific analyses of sustainability. This requires understanding the difference between the concepts of "risk", "uncertainty" and "ignorance". ii) When dealing with evolutionary processes it is impossible to ban uncertainty and ignorance from scientific models. Hence, traditional risk analysis (probability distributions and exact numerical models) becomes powerless. Other forms of scientific knowledge (general principles or metaphors) may be useful alternatives. iii) The existence of ecological hazards per se should not be used as a reason to stop innovations altogether. However, the precautionary principle entails that scientists move away from the concept of "substantive rationality" (trying to indicate to society optimal solutions) to that of "procedural rationality" (trying to help society to find "satisficing" solutions).