Distinguishing Admissions Specifically for COVID-19 from Incidental SARS-CoV-2 Admissions: A National EHR Research Consortium Study

BackgroundAdmissions are generally classified as COVID-19 hospitalizations if the patient has a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. However, because 35% of SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic, patients admitted for unrelated indications with an incidentally positive test could be misclassified as a COVID-19 hospitalization. EHR-based studies have been unable to distinguish between a hospitalization specifically for COVID-19 versus an incidental SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization. Although the need to improve classification of COVID-19 disease vs. incidental SARS-CoV-2 is well understood, the magnitude of the problems has only been characterized in small, single-center studies. Furthermore, there have been no peer-reviewed studies evaluating methods for improving classification. ObjectiveThe aims of this study were to: first, quantify the frequency of incidental hospitalizations over the first fifteen months of the pandemic in multiple hospital systems in the United States; and second, to apply electronic phenotyping techniques to automatically improve COVID-19 hospitalization classification. MethodsFrom a retrospective EHR-based cohort in four US healthcare systems in Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, a random sample of 1,123 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive patients hospitalized between 3/2020-8/2021 was manually chart-reviewed and classified as admitted-with-COVID-19 (incidental) vs. specifically admitted for COVID-19 (for-COVID-19). EHR-based phenotyping was used to find feature sets to filter out incidental admissions. ResultsEHR-based phenotyped feature sets filtered out incidental admissions, which occurred in an average of 26% of hospitalizations (although this varied widely over time, from 0%-75%). The top site-specific feature sets had 79-99% specificity with 62-75% sensitivity, while the best performing across-site feature set had 71-94% specificity with 69-81% sensitivity. ConclusionsA large proportion of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive admissions were incidental. Straightforward EHR-based phenotypes differentiated admissions, which is important to assure accurate public health reporting and research.

SurvMaximin: Robust Federated Approach to Transporting Survival Risk Prediction Models

ObjectiveFor multi-center heterogeneous Real-World Data (RWD) with time-to-event outcomes and high-dimensional features, we propose the SurvMaximin algorithm to estimate Cox model feature coefficients for a target population by borrowing summary information from a set of health care centers without sharing patient-level information. Materials and MethodsFor each of the centers from which we want to borrow information to improve the prediction performance for the target population, a penalized Cox model is fitted to estimate feature coefficients for the center. Using estimated feature coefficients and the covariance matrix of the target population, we then obtain a SurvMaximin estimated set of feature coefficients for the target population. The target population can be an entire cohort comprised of all centers, corresponding to federated learning, or can be a single center, corresponding to transfer learning. ResultsSimulation studies and a real-world international electronic health records application study, with 15 participating health care centers across three countries (France, Germany, and the U.S.), show that the proposed SurvMaximin algorithm achieves comparable or higher accuracy compared with the estimator using only the information of the target site and other existing methods. The SurvMaximin estimator is robust to variations in sample sizes and estimated feature coefficients between centers, which amounts to significantly improved estimates for target sites with fewer observations. ConclusionsThe SurvMaximin method is well suited for both federated and transfer learning in the high-dimensional survival analysis setting. SurvMaximin only requires a one-time summary information exchange from participating centers. Estimated regression vectors can be very heterogeneous. SurvMaximin provides robust Cox feature coefficient estimates without outcome information in the target population and is privacy-preserving.

Multinational Prevalence of Neurological Phenotypes in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19

OBJECTIVENeurological complications can worsen outcomes in COVID-19. We defined the prevalence of a wide range of neurological conditions among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in geographically diverse multinational populations. METHODSUsing electronic health record (EHR) data from 348 participating hospitals across 6 countries and 3 continents between January and September 2020, we performed a cross-sectional study of hospitalized adult and pediatric patients with a positive SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test, both with and without severe COVID-19. We assessed the frequency of each disease category and 3-character International Classification of Disease (ICD) code of neurological diseases by countries, sites, time before and after admission for COVID-19, and COVID-19 severity. RESULTSAmong the 35,177 hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, there was increased prevalence of disorders of consciousness (5.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.7%-7.8%, pFDR<.001) and unspecified disorders of the brain (8.1%, 95%CI: 5.7%-10.5%, pFDR<.001), compared to pre-admission prevalence. During hospitalization, patients who experienced severe COVID-19 status had 22% (95%CI: 19%-25%) increase in the relative risk (RR) of disorders of consciousness, 24% (95%CI: 13%-35%) increase in other cerebrovascular diseases, 34% (95%CI: 20%-50%) increase in nontraumatic intracranial hemorrhage, 37% (95%CI: 17%-60%) increase in encephalitis and/or myelitis, and 72% (95%CI: 67%-77%) increase in myopathy compared to those who never experienced severe disease. INTERPRETATIONUsing an international network and common EHR data elements, we highlight an increase in the prevalence of central and peripheral neurological phenotypes in patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly among those with severe disease.

International Comparisons of Harmonized Laboratory Value Trajectories to Predict Severe COVID-19: Leveraging the 4CE Collaborative Across 342 Hospitals and 6 Countries: A Retrospective Cohort Study

ObjectivesTo perform an international comparison of the trajectory of laboratory values among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who develop severe disease and identify optimal timing of laboratory value collection to predict severity across hospitals and regions. DesignRetrospective cohort study. SettingThe Consortium for Clinical Characterization of COVID-19 by EHR (4CE), an international multi-site data-sharing collaborative of 342 hospitals in the US and in Europe. ParticipantsPatients hospitalized with COVID-19, admitted before or after PCR-confirmed result for SARS-CoV-2. Primary and secondary outcome measuresPatients were categorized as "ever-severe" or "never-severe" using the validated 4CE severity criteria. Eighteen laboratory tests associated with poor COVID-19-related outcomes were evaluated for predictive accuracy by area under the curve (AUC), compared between the severity categories. Subgroup analysis was performed to validate a subset of laboratory values as predictive of severity against a published algorithm. A subset of laboratory values (CRP, albumin, LDH, neutrophil count, D-dimer, and procalcitonin) was compared between North American and European sites for severity prediction. ResultsOf 36,447 patients with COVID-19, 19,953 (43.7%) were categorized as ever-severe. Most patients (78.7%) were 50 years of age or older and male (60.5%). Longitudinal trajectories of CRP, albumin, LDH, neutrophil count, D-dimer, and procalcitonin showed association with disease severity. Significant differences of laboratory values at admission were found between the two groups. With the exception of D-dimer, predictive discrimination of laboratory values did not improve after admission. Sub-group analysis using age, D-dimer, CRP, and lymphocyte count as predictive of severity at admission showed similar discrimination to a published algorithm (AUC=0.88 and 0.91, respectively). Both models deteriorated in predictive accuracy as the disease progressed. On average, no difference in severity prediction was found between North American and European sites. ConclusionsLaboratory test values at admission can be used to predict severity in patients with COVID-19. Prediction models show consistency across international sites highlighting the potential generalizability of these models.

Validation of a Derived International Patient Severity Phenotype to Support COVID-19 Analytics from Electronic Health Record Data

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWO_ST_ABSIntroductionC_ST_ABSThe Consortium for Clinical Characterization of COVID-19 by EHR (4CE) includes hundreds of hospitals internationally using a federated computational approach to COVID-19 research using the EHR. ObjectiveWe sought to develop and validate a standard definition of COVID-19 severity from readily accessible EHR data across the Consortium. MethodsWe developed an EHR-based severity algorithm and validated it on patient hospitalization data from 12 4CE clinical sites against the outcomes of ICU admission and/or death. We also used a machine learning approach to compare selected predictors of severity to the 4CE algorithm at one site. ResultsThe 4CE severity algorithm performed with pooled sensitivity of 0.73 and specificity 0.83 for the combined outcome of ICU admission and/or death. The sensitivity of single code categories for acuity were unacceptably inaccurate - varying by up to 0.65 across sites. A multivariate machine learning approach identified codes resulting in mean AUC 0.956 (95% CI: 0.952, 0.959) compared to 0.903 (95% CI: 0.886, 0.921) using expert-derived codes. Billing codes were poor proxies of ICU admission, with 49% precision and recall compared against chart review at one partner institution. DiscussionWe developed a proxy measure of severity that proved resilient to coding variability internationally by using a set of 6 code classes. In contrast, machine-learning approaches may tend to overfit hospital-specific orders. Manual chart review revealed discrepancies even in the gold standard outcomes, possibly due to pandemic conditions. ConclusionWe developed an EHR-based algorithm for COVID-19 severity and validated it at 12 international sites.

Identifying zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2 by modeling the binding affinity between Spike receptor-binding domain and host ACE2

Despite considerable research progress on SARS-CoV-2, the direct zoonotic origin (intermediate host) of the virus remains ambiguous. The most definitive approach to identify the intermediate host would be the detection of SARS-CoV-2-like coronaviruses in wild animals. However, due to the high number of animal species, it is not feasible to screen all the species in the laboratory. Given that the recognition of the binding ACE2 proteins is the first step for the coronaviruses to invade host cells, we proposed a computational pipeline to identify potential intermediate hosts of SARS-CoV-2 by modeling the binding affinity between the Spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) and host ACE2. Using this pipeline, we systematically examined 285 ACE2 variants from mammals, birds, fish, reptiles, and amphibians, and found that the binding energies calculated on the modeled Spike-RBD/ACE2 complex structures correlate closely with the effectiveness of animal infections as determined by multiple experimental datasets. Built on the optimized binding affinity cutoff, we suggested a set of 96 mammals, including 48 experimentally investigated ones, which are permissive to SARS-CoV-2, with candidates from primates, rodents, and carnivores at the highest risk of infection. Overall, this work not only suggested a limited range of potential intermediate SARS-CoV-2 hosts for further experimental investigation; but more importantly, it proposed a new structure-based approach to general zoonotic origin and susceptibility analyses that are critical for human infectious disease control and wildlife protection.

International Electronic Health Record-Derived COVID-19 Clinical Course Profile: The 4CE Consortium

We leveraged the largely untapped resource of electronic health record data to address critical clinical and epidemiological questions about Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). To do this, we formed an international consortium (4CE) of 96 hospitals across 5 countries (www.covidclinical.net). Contributors utilized the Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (i2b2) or Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) platforms to map to a common data model. The group focused on comorbidities and temporal changes in key laboratory test values. Harmonized data were analyzed locally and converted to a shared aggregate form for rapid analysis and visualization of regional differences and global commonalities. Data covered 27,584 COVID-19 cases with 187,802 laboratory tests. Case counts and laboratory trajectories were concordant with existing literature. Laboratory tests at the time of diagnosis showed hospital-level differences equivalent to country-level variation across the consortium partners. Despite the limitations of decentralized data generation, we established a framework to capture the trajectory of COVID-19 disease in patients and their response to interventions.