Development and calibration of a model for the potential establishment and impact of Aedes albopictus in Europe.

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is one of the most invasive disease vectors worldwide. The species is a competent vector of dengue, chikungunya, Zika viruses and other severe parasites and pathogens threatening human health. The capacity of this mosquito to colonize and establish in new areas (including temperate regions) is enhanced by its ability of producing diapausing eggs that survive relatively cold winters. The main drivers of population dynamics for this mosquito are water and air temperature and photoperiod. In this paper, we present a mechanistic model that predicts the potential distribution, abundance and activity of Asian tiger mosquito in Europe. The model includes a comprehensive description of: i) the individual life-history strategies, including diapause, ii) the influence of weather-driven individual physiological responses on population dynamics and iii) the density-dependent regulation of larval mortality rate. The model is calibrated using field data from several locations along an altitudinal gradient in the Italian Alps, which enabled accurate prediction of cold temperature effects on population abundance, including identification of conditions that prevent overwintering of the species. Model predictions are consistent with the most updated information on species' presence and absence. Predicted population abundance shows a clear south-north decreasing gradient. A similar yet less evident pattern in the activity of the species is also predicted. The model represents a valuable tool for the development of strategies aimed at the management of Ae. albopictus and for the implementation of effective control measures against vector-borne diseases in Europe.

Modeling and improving Ethiopian pasture systems.

The production of pasture in Ethiopia was simulated by means of a dynamic model. Most of the country is characterized by a tropical monsoon climate with mild temperatures and precipitation mainly concentrated in the June-September period (main rainy season). The production model is driven by solar radiation and takes into account limitations due to relocation, maintenance respiration, conversion to final dry matter, temperature, water stress, and nutrients availability. The model also considers the senescence of grassland which strongly limits the nutritional value of grasses for livestock. The simulation for the 1982-2009 period, performed on gridded daily time series of rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature with a resolution of 0.5°, provided results comparable with values reported in literature. Yearly mean yield in Ethiopia ranged between 1.8 metric ton per hectare (t ha-1) (2002) and 2.6 t ha-1 (1989) of dry matter with values above 2.5 t ha-1 attained in 1983, 1985, 1989, and 2008. The Ethiopian territory has been subdivided in 1494 cells and a frequency distribution of the per-cell yearly mean pasture production has been obtained. This distribution ranges from 0 to 7 t ha-1 and it shows a right skewed distribution and a modal class between 1.5-2 t ha-1. Simulation carried out on long time series for this peculiar tropical environment give rise to as lot of results relevant by the agroecological point of view on space variability of pasture production, main limiting factors (solar radiation, precipitation, temperature), and relevant meteo-climatic cycles affecting pasture production (seasonal and inter yearly variability, ENSO). These results are useful to establish an agro-ecological zoning of the Ethiopian territory.

A Bayesian estimation approach for the mortality in a stage-structured demographic model.

Control interventions in sustainable pest management schemes are set according to the phenology and the population abundance of the pests. This information can be obtained using suitable mathematical models that describe the population dynamics based on individual life history responses to environmental conditions and resource availability. These responses are described by development, fecundity and survival rate functions, which can be estimated from laboratory experiments. If experimental data are not available, data on field population dynamics can be used for their estimation. This is the case of the extrinsic mortality term that appears in the mortality rate function due to biotic factors. We propose a Bayesian approach to estimate the probability density functions of the parameters in the extrinsic mortality rate function, starting from data on population abundance. The method investigates the time variability in the mortality parameters by comparing simulated and observed trajectories. The grape berry moth, a pest of great importance in European vineyards, has been considered as a case study. Simulated data have been considered to evaluate the convergence of the algorithm, while field data have been used to obtain estimates of the mortality for the grape berry moth.

Environmental risk assessment for plant pests: a procedure to evaluate their impacts on ecosystem services.

The current methods to assess the environmental impacts of plant pests differ in their approaches and there is a lack of the standardized procedures necessary to provide accurate and consistent results, demonstrating the complexity of developing a commonly accepted scheme for this purpose. By including both the structural and functional components of the environment threatened by invasive alien species (IAS), in particular plant pests, we propose an environmental risk assessment scheme that addresses this complexity. Structural components are investigated by evaluating the impacts of the plant pest on genetic, species and landscape diversity. Functional components are evaluated by estimating how plant pests modify ecosystem services in order to determine the extent to which an IAS changes the functional traits that influence ecosystem services. A scenario study at a defined spatial and temporal resolution is then used to explore how an IAS, as an exogenous driving force, may trigger modifications in the target environment. The method presented here provides a standardized approach to generate comparable and reproducible results for environmental risk assessment as a component of Pest Risk Analysis. The method enables the assessment of overall environmental risk which integrates the impacts on different components of the environment and their probabilities of occurrence. The application of the proposed scheme is illustrated by evaluating the environmental impacts of the invasive citrus long-horn beetle, Anoplophora chinensis.

Temperature influences on functional response of Coenosia attenuata (Diptera: Muscidae) individuals.

The functional response of single Coenosia attenuta Stein (Diptera: Muscidae) adult females to Drosophila melanogaster (Meigen) adults has been investigated at different but constant temperatures and prey densities. The experiments were conducted in cages over a wide range of temperatures between 12 and 42 degrees C. At each experimental temperature, the number of attacks increases with increasing prey density up to a maximum attack rate referred to as demand rate. A ratio-dependent and demand-driven functional response model was appropriate to describe the attack rate at different temperatures. Both the demand and the search rate linearly increased with increasing temperatures throughout the range. Based on these results, a temperature- and prey density-dependent bidimensional attack rate model was developed and parameterized. The resulting response surface shows that C. attenuata is active over a wide range of temperatures (from approximately 12 to 36 degrees C) and attacks occur up to 42 degrees C. Thus, C. attenuata may be a promising biological control agent in Mediterranean greenhouses. To support this conclusion, further studies including the evaluation of spatial scale effects on the search rate and the consideration of the economically relevant whitefly prey are recommended.

Human health improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa through integrated management of arthropod transmitted diseases and natural resources.

A concept of an ecosystem approach to human health improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa is presented here. Three factors mainly affect the physical condition of the human body: the abiotic environment, vector-transmitted diseases, and natural resources. Our concept relies on ecological principles embedded in a social context and identifies three sets of subsystems for study and management: human disease subsystems, natural resource subsystems, and decision-support subsystems. To control human diseases and to secure food from resource subsystems including livestock or crops, integrated preventive approaches are preferred over exclusively curative and sectorial approaches. Environmental sustainability - the basis for managing matter and water flows - contributes to a healthy human environment and constitutes the basis for social sustainability. For planning and implementation of the human health improvement scheme, participatory decision-support subsystems adapted to the local conditions need to be designed through institutional arrangements. The applicability of this scheme is demonstrated in urban and rural Ethiopia.

Changes in mouse Leydig cell steroidogenesis following infrared and helium-neon laser irradiation.

The effects on mouse Leydig cell steroidogenesis of infrared (IR) laser rays, in the presence or absence of helium-neon (He-Ne) radiations, were investigated. Testosterone (T) production in response to luteinizing hormone (LH) by mouse Leydig cells exposed to IR (4.2 X 10(-3) J/cm2/min) plus He-Ne (8.0 X 10(-7) J/cm2/min) laser radiations was significantly higher than that by control Leydig cells. The Leydig cell responsiveness to LH (T delta %), as well as the secretion of cyclic AMP (cAMP) and androstenedione (A) in response to the highest dose of LH (0.5 mIU), were also significantly increased by the IR plus He-Ne irradiation. In contrast, the He-Ne irradiation (8.0 X 10(-7) J/cm2/min) in the absence of IR rays failed to affect T production by mouse Leydig cells. Similar results were obtained by adding to the He-Ne rays a low dose of IR radiation (3.4 X 10(-3) J/cm2/min), whereas higher doses of IR radiations (4.2 X 10(-3) and 5.1 X 10(-3) J/cm2/min) elicited a similar significant increase of T production by mouse interstitial cells.

Mixed connective tissue disease (Sharp syndrome): description of two cases.

Clinical, neurophysiological, histopathological and immunohistochemical features of two cases of mixed connective tissue disease (Sharp syndrome) are reported.