Development of MILIONCAST, an Improved Model for Predicting Downy Mildew Sporulation on Onions.

The effects of temperature and relative humidity on Peronospora destructor sporulation on onion (Allium cepa) leaves were studied under controlled environmental conditions. Sporangia were produced most rapidly at 8 to 12°C after 5 h of high humidity during dark periods. The greatest number of sporangia was produced at 100% relative humidity (RH), and sporulation decreased to almost nil when humidity decreased to 93% RH. A model, named MILIONCAST (an acronym for MILdew on onION foreCAST), was developed based on the data from these controlled environment studies to predict the rate of sporulation in relation to temperature and relative humidity. The accuracy of prediction of sporulation was evaluated by comparing predictions with observations of sporulation on infected plants in pots outdoors. The accuracy of MILIONCAST was compared with the accuracy of existing models based on DOWNCAST. MILIONCAST gave more correct predictions of sporulation than the DOWNCAST models and a random model. All models based on DOWNCAST were more accurate than the random model when compared on the basis of all predictions (including positive and negative predictions), but they gave fewer correct predictions of sporulation than the random model. De Visser's DOWNCAST and ONIMIL improved their accuracy of prediction of sporulation events when the threshold humidity for sporulation was reduced to 92% RH. The temporal pattern of predicted sporulation by MILIONCAST generally corresponded well to the pattern of sporulation observed on the outdoor potted plants at Wellesbourne, UK.

Effects of an Interaction Between Inoculum Density and Temperature on Germination of Puccinia allii Urediniospores and Leek Rust Progress.

ABSTRACT Controlled environment experiments were conducted to study the effects of inoculum density, temperature, and their interaction on germination of Puccinia allii urediniospores and infection of leek leaves. Percent germination of P. allii urediniospores and percent branching of germ tubes increased with 3 density of urediniospores and approached a plateau for densities above approximately 20 spores cm(-2) of leaf area. Percent germination was highest at 12 to 21 degrees C, a wide-range temperature optimum. Branching occurred at temperatures ranging from 5 to 25 degrees C, but there were few germ tubes branching at 25 degrees C. P. allii successfully infected leek leaves at temperatures ranging from 7 to 22 degrees C. The number of pustules produced increased with urediniospore density on leek leaves. At low spore densities, pustule production was little affected by temperature; at higher spore densities, pustule production was greatest between 9 to 11 degrees C, and numbers of pustules decreased greatly with temperature increasing above this optimum. Latent period was affected by temperature, with latent period being shortet between 19 and 22 degrees C, and latent period increasing when temperature decreased. Latent periods became approximately 1.8 days shorter for every 10-fold increase in spore density. The rate of pustule production increased with increasing spore density on leaves and was greatest between 11 to 14 degrees C. Computer simulation of leek rust progress based on the found relationships suggested that at optimal temperatures the development of leek rust epidemics may be little affected by initial spore density and density caused by each pustule, but that at sub- and supra-optimal temperatures the development is greatly affected by these variables.