Evaluation of the Ryegrass Stem Rust Model STEMRUST_G and Its Implementation as a Decision Aid.

STEMRUST_G, a simulation model for epidemics of stem rust in perennial ryegrass grown to maturity as a seed crop, was validated for use as a heuristic tool and as a decision aid for disease management with fungicides. Multistage validation had been used in model creation by incorporating previously validated submodels for infection, latent period duration, sporulation, fungicide effects, and plant growth. Validation of the complete model was by comparison of model output with observed disease severities in 35 epidemics at nine location-years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. We judge the model acceptable for its purposes, based on several tests. Graphs of modeled disease progress were generally congruent with plotted disease severity observations. There was negligible average bias in the 570 modeled-versus-observed comparisons across all data, although there was large variance in size of the deviances. Modeled severities were accurate in >80% of the comparisons, where accuracy is defined as the modeled value being within twice the 95% confidence interval of the observed value, within ±1 day of the observation date. An interactive website was created to produce disease estimates by running STEMRUST_G with user-supplied disease scouting information and automated daily weather data inputs from field sites. The model and decision aid supplement disease managers' information by estimating the level of latent (invisible) and expressed disease since the last scouting observation, given season-long weather conditions up to the present, and it estimates effects of fungicides on epidemic development. In additional large-plot experiments conducted in grower fields, the decision aid produced disease management outcomes (management cost and seed yield) as good as or better than the growers' standard practice. In future, STEMRUST_G could be modified to create similar models and decision aids for stem rust of wheat and barley, after additional experiments to determine appropriate parameters for the disease in these small-grain hosts.

Effect of the calcium entry blocker verapamil on renal ischemia.

The ability of the calcium entry blocker verapamil to ameliorate the effects of renal ischemia was studied in ten sheep. Postanesthesia, bilateral cutaneous ureterostomies were placed in each sheep to facilitate urine collection and analysis. Both kidneys were made ischemic for one hour by occluding each renal artery. However, immediately before occlusion of the right renal artery, 0.05 mg/kg of verapamil was injected into the artery. Comparison of urinary creatinine excretion and urine volume for 72 h after reversal of ischemia demonstrated that those kidneys pretreated with verapamil had greater functional preservation (p less than .05). In this study, verapamil appeared to provide protection against renal damage after an ischemic insult.

Renal preservation following severe ischemia and prophylactic calcium channel blockade.

The ability of the calcium channel blocker verapamil to prevent renal ischemic damage was assessed in a randomized double blind study of 41 rats. Study animals received either intravenous verapamil or placebo prior to renal pedicle occlusion and contralateral nephrectomy. Rats receiving verapamil pretreatment demonstrated significantly greater functional preservation 48 hours after ischemia (p less than 0.005) and exhibited better overall survival rates. In this study verapamil provided protection against renal damage following ischemia.

Serologic investigation of an outbreak of hepatitis A in a rural day-care center.

We studied an outbreak of hepatitis A in a day-care center in a rural community where less than 7 per cent of the population possessed anti-HAV. Serotesting for IgM specific antibody to hepatitis A virus identified 78 cases in center attendees, staff, and families. Thirty-five per cent of the center children were seropositive. In children under age three anicteric infection was at least 17 times more frequent than icteric infection, but in older children and adults icterus was a predominant manifestation of the disease. Clinical suspicion should be high in any day-care child with nausea, emesis, diarrhea, or arthralgia. The low incidence of icterus in infected children suggested that outbreak reports reaching public health departments are likely to be incomplete and poorly indicative of outbreak magnitude. The high frequency of intrafamilial transmission and anicteric infection appeared to justify administration of immune serum globulin to household contacts of center children under age three when a day-care outbreak is detected.