Advancing biomedical science through investments in elite training.

How can governments invest in the public good of science in a way that accelerates advancement and encourages innovation at the frontier of science-all the while acknowledging that investing in science means investing in scientists? The Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Award (NRSA) program is a research-training program administered by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) that makes such investments. This study examines the impact of NRSA postdoctoral fellowships on subsequent career outcomes using NIH administrative records on applicants for the fellowship from 1996 to 2008. It finds that fellowships increased the probability of receiving subsequent research awards from 4.0 to 6.3 percentage points and of achieving a major independent research award from 2.6 to 4.6 percentage points. The findings demonstrate that federally funded fellowships promote the retention of scientists in the biomedical research workforce.

Differential Response and the Reduction of Child Maltreatment and Foster Care Services Utilization in the U.S. From 2004 to 2017.

By 2014, the majority of U.S. states had implemented differential response (DR), a system policy that seeks to serve families of low-to moderate-risk for child maltreatment through family engagement, diversion from formal child protective services investigations, and service provision. However, the effects of DR programs on child welfare dynamics have yet to be evaluated nationally using causal methods. Using a quasi-experimental study design with data drawn from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System from 2004 to 2017, we found states with DR programs had approximately 19% fewer substantiated reports, 25% fewer children substantiated for neglect, and a 17% reduction in foster care services utilization when compared to states without DR programs. We find these estimates to be robust to the opioid epidemic and incarceration rates. Additional research is needed to better characterize DR programs and isolate the effects of DR programs geographically.

How many people in the world do research and development?

The traditional approach to comparing research and development (R&D) capacity across countries has been to compare Gross Domestic R&D expenditures (GERD). In this paper, we argue for an expansion of R&D capacity that includes people engaged in research and research and development activities (research human capital density, RHCD). To achieve this goal, we first discuss how to estimate counts of researchers and create a measure of researcher human capital density within a country. Next, we examine whether RHCD is a useful variable in models of innovation capacity. Finally, we consider whether RHCD has explanatory power for models of research outputs including patents and publications. We find that RHCD has more explanatory power than GERD in the production of patents and publications. We argue that surveys of individuals that include questions on R&D activities are useful for assessing innovation capacity, and, if adopted more broadly, can provide a strategic framework for countries and regions to develop human capital to support innovative activities.

Associations Between State TANF Policies, Child Protective Services Involvement, And Foster Care Placement.

The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, which was established in 1996 and renewed in 2005, constituted a major reform of the US welfare system. Since its renewal, few studies have examined its effects on children. We used instrumental variables, two-way fixed effects, and event studies to examine the associations between state-level TANF policies, Child Protective Services involvement, and foster care placement during the period 2004-16. We found that each additional TANF policy that restricted access to benefits was associated with a 13 percent reduction in TANF caseloads. Using TANF policies as an instrument, we found that increases in TANF caseloads were associated with significant reductions in numbers of neglect victims and foster care placements. In two-way fixed effects models, restrictions on TANF access were associated with more than forty-four additional neglect victims per 100,000 child population and between nineteen and twenty-two additional children per 100,000 placed in foster care. Our findings suggest that additional research using data that capture the nuances of maltreatment should be used to investigate the relationships among TANF policies, child maltreatment, and foster care placement.

Association Between State Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Policies, Child Protective Services Involvement, and Foster Care in the US, 2004-2016.

Importance: Public assistance policies may play a role in preventing child maltreatment by improving household resources among families of low incomes. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is one of the largest public assistance programs in the US. However, the association of state SNAP policy options to Child Protective Services (CPS) outcomes has not been rigorously examined. Objective: To model the association of state SNAP policies with changes in CPS and foster care outcomes in the US over time. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used panel data to examine the association between SNAP policy options and study outcomes from 2004 to 2016 for 50 US states and the District of Columbia in 2-way fixed-effects regression models. The count of SNAP policies was used as an instrument for SNAP caseloads in instrumental variables models. Data analysis was conducted in November 2021. Exposures: The adoption of 1 or more state SNAP income generosity policies that improves or stabilizes household resources for SNAP participants. Main Outcomes and Measures: Reports of child maltreatment accepted for CPS investigation, children in substantiated reports, and children receiving foster care services for all forms of maltreatment, and specifically for child neglect per 100 000 child population. Results: The mean (SD) number of SNAP income generosity policies increased from 1.47 (0.95) in 2004 to 2.37 (0.94) in 2010, to 2.49 (0.86) in 2016 across states; the median increased from 1 to 3 (range, 0-4) over the same period. A count of state income generosity policies was associated with large reductions in reports accepted for CPS investigation (-352.6 per 100 000 children; 95% CI, -557.1 to -148.2). Income generosity policy was associated with -94.8 (95% CI, -155.6 to -34.0) fewer substantiated reports and -77.0 (95% CI, -125.4 to -28.6) fewer reports substantiated for neglect per 100 000. Each additional income generosity policy adopted by a state was associated with -45.1 (95% CI, -71.6 to -18.5) to -42.3 (95% CI, -64.8 to -19.8) fewer total foster care placements per 100 000 children. Conclusions and Relevance: State SNAP policies that improve and stabilize household resources appear to be associated with reductions in CPS involvement and use of foster care. The number of policies implemented had cumulative outcomes beyond individual policy outcomes.

Fathers' Multiple-Partner Fertility and Children's Educational Outcomes.

Fathers' multiple-partner fertility (MPF) is associated with substantially worse educational outcomes for children. We focus on children in fathers' second families that are nuclear: households consisting of a man, a woman, their joint children, and no other children. We analyze outcomes for almost 75,000 Norwegian children, all of whom lived in nuclear families until at least age 18. Children with MPF fathers are more likely than other children from nuclear families to drop out of secondary school (24% vs. 17%) and less likely to obtain a bachelor's degree (44% vs. 51%). These gaps remain substantial-at 4 and 5 percentage points, respectively-after we control for child and parental characteristics, such as income, wealth, education, and age. Resource competition with the children in the father's first family does not explain the differences in educational outcomes. We find that the association between a father's previous childless marriage and his children's educational outcomes is similar to that between a father's MPF and his children's educational outcomes. Birth order does not explain these results. This similarity suggests that selection is the primary explanation for the association between fathers' MPF and children's educational outcomes.

Reflections on race, ethnicity, and NIH research awards.

It has been a decade since "Race, Ethnicity, and NIH Research Awards" was published. Receiving the American Society for Cell Biology Public Service Award allows me to reflect on this research and its impact. In this essay, I share the story of how my research interests and professional networks provided the opportunity to do this important work. I also make the case for improved data and mentoring to address race and ethnic disparities in NIH funding.

Economy-Sensitive Conditions: Are Some Pediatric Hospitalizations Triggered By Economic Recessions?

The impact of economic recessions on child health is complex and varied. Here we examine associations between county-level unemployment and pediatric hospitalizations in fourteen states every third year from 2002 to 2014. After adjusting for state-specific effects of unemployment across all counties and years, we found that increased unemployment was associated with increased pediatric hospitalizations for four potentially economy-sensitive conditions, such that a 1 percent increase in unemployment was associated with a 5 percent increase in hospitalizations for substance abuse, a 4 percent increase for diabetes mellitus, and a 2 percent increase both for children with medical complexity and for poisoning and burns. Mean pediatric all-cause hospitalizations increased by 2 percent for every 1 percent increase in unemployment (or 54,177 excess hospitalizations in 2011 compared with 2005). Hospitalizations for mental health, despite the increased severity of these conditions during recessions, were not associated with unemployment. Further research is needed to examine potential federal, state, and local policies that may mitigate the influence of unemployment on child health and pediatric hospitalizations.

Administrative Discretion in Scientific Funding: Evidence from a Prestigious Postdoctoral Training Program.

The scientific community is engaged in an active debate on the value of its peer-review system. Does peer review actually serve the role we envision for it-that of helping government agencies predict what ideas have the best chance of contributing to scientific advancement? Many federal agencies use a two-step review process that includes programmatic discretion in selecting awards. This process allows us to determine whether success in a future independent scientific-research career is more accurately predicted by peer-review recommendations or discretion by program staff and institute leaders. Using data from a prestigious training program at the National Institute of Health (NIH), the Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Award (NRSA), we provide evidence on the efficacy of peer review. We find that, despite all current claims to the contrary, the existing peer-review system works as intended. It more closely predicts high-quality science and future research independence than discretion. We discover also that regression discontinuity, the econometric method typically used to examine the effect of scientific funding, does not fit many scientific-funding models and should only be used with caution when studying federal awards for science.

Reproductive health care in Catholic-owned hospitals.

Mergers that affiliate a hospital with a Catholic owner, network, or system reduce the set of possible reproductive medical procedures since Catholic hospitals have strict prohibitions on contraception. Using changes in ownership of hospitals, we find that Catholic hospitals reduce the per bed rates of tubal ligations by 31%, whereas there is no significant change in related permitted procedures such as Caesarian sections. However, across a variety of measures, we find minimal overall welfare reductions. Still, fewer tubal ligations increase the risk of unintended pregnancies across the United States, imposing a potentially substantial cost for less reliable contraception on women and their partners.

Publications as predictors of racial and ethnic differences in NIH research awards.

This research expands efforts to understand differences in NIH funding associated with the self-identified race and ethnicity of applicants. We collected data from 2,397 NIH Biographical Sketches submitted between FY 2003 and 2006 as part of new NIH R01 Type 1 applications to obtain detailed information on the applicants' training and scholarly activities, including publications. Using these data, we examined the association between an NIH R01 applicant's race or ethnicity and the probability of receiving an R01 award. The applicant's publication history as reported in the NIH biographical sketch and the associated bibliometrics narrowed the black/white funding gap for new and experienced investigators in explanatory models. We found that black applicants reported fewer papers on their Biosketches, had fewer citations, and those that were reported appeared in journals with lower impact factors. Incorporating these measures in our models explained a substantial portion of the black/white funding gap. Although these predictors influence the funding gap, they do not fully address race/ethnicity differences in receiving a priority score.

Gender, Race/Ethnicity, and National Institutes of Health R01 Research Awards: Is There Evidence of a Double Bind for Women of Color?

PURPOSE: To analyze the relationship between gender, race/ethnicity, and the probability of being awarded an R01 grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH). METHOD: The authors used data from the NIH Information for Management, Planning, Analysis, and Coordination grants management database for the years 2000-2006 to examine gender differences and race/ethnicity-specific gender differences in the probability of receiving an R01 Type 1 award. The authors used descriptive statistics and probit models to determine the relationship between gender, race/ethnicity, degree, investigator experience, and R01 award probability, controlling for a large set of observable characteristics. RESULTS: White women PhDs and MDs were as likely as white men to receive an R01 award. Compared with white women, Asian and black women PhDs and black women MDs were significantly less likely to receive funding. Women submitted fewer grant applications, and blacks and women who were new investigators were more likely to submit only one application between 2000 and 2006. CONCLUSIONS: Differences by race/ethnicity explain the NIH funding gap for women of color, as white women have a slight advantage over men in receiving Type 1 awards. Findings of a lower submission rate for women and an increased likelihood that they will submit only one proposal are consistent with research showing that women avoid competition. Policies designed to address the racial and ethnic diversity of the biomedical workforce have the potential to improve funding outcomes for women of color.

Are recent cohorts of women with engineering bachelors less likely to stay in engineering?

Women are an increasing percentage of Bachelors in Engineering (BSEs) graduates-rising from 1% in 1970 to 20% in the 2000s-encouraged by increasing K-12 emphasis on attracting girls to STEM and efforts to incorporate engineering and technology into K-12 curricula. Retention of women in STEM and in engineering in particular has been a concern historically. In this paper, we investigate whether this gap has increased because a larger proportion of females entering engineering find themselves ill-matched to this field, or whether the gap has decreased as engineering becomes more accommodating to women. Using 1993-2010 nationally representative NSF SESTAT surveys, we compare cohorts of BSEs at the same early-career stages (from 1-2 to 7-8 years post-bachelors). We find no evidence of a time trend in the gender gap in retention in engineering and a slightly decreasing gender gap in leaving the labor force. We find, as others have, that the majority of the gender retention gap is due to women leaving the labor force entirely and that this exit is highly correlated with child-bearing; yet women with engineering majors are half as likely as all college-educated women to leave the labor market. There are no clear time trends in female BSEs leaving the labor market. Single childless women are actually more likely than men to remain in engineering jobs. Some of the gender differences in retention we find are caused by differences in race and engineering subfield. With controls for these, there is no gender retention difference by 7-8 years post-bachelors for those full-time employed. There were two unusual cohorts-women with 1991-1994 BSEs were particularly likely to remain in engineering and women with 1998-2001 BSEs were particularly likely to leave engineering, compared to men. Cohorts before and after these revert toward the mean, indicating no time trend. Also, women who leave engineering are just as likely as men to stay in math-intensive STEM jobs.

The Effects of Research & Development Funding on Scientific Productivity: Academic Chemistry, 1990-2009.

This article examines the relationship between Research & Development (R&D) funding and the production of knowledge by academic chemists. Using articles published, either raw counts or adjusted for quality, we find a strong, positive causal effect of funding on knowledge production. This effect is similar across subsets of universities, suggesting a relatively efficient allocation of R&D funds. Finally, we document a rapid acceleration in the rate at which chemical knowledge was produced in the late 1990s and early 2000s relative to the financial and human resources devoted to its production.

WOMEN IN SCIENCE. Comment on "Expectations of brilliance underlie gender distributions across academic disciplines".

Leslie et al. (Reports, 16 January 2015, p. 262) concluded that "expectations of brilliance" explained the gender makeup of academic disciplines. We reestimated their models after adding measures of disaggregated Graduate Record Examination scores by field. Our results indicated that female representation among Ph.D. recipients is associated with the field's mathematical content and that faculty beliefs about innate ability were irrelevant.

Women in Academic Science: A Changing Landscape.

Much has been written in the past two decades about women in academic science careers, but this literature is contradictory. Many analyses have revealed a level playing field, with men and women faring equally, whereas other analyses have suggested numerous areas in which the playing field is not level. The only widely-agreed-upon conclusion is that women are underrepresented in college majors, graduate school programs, and the professoriate in those fields that are the most mathematically intensive, such as geoscience, engineering, economics, mathematics/computer science, and the physical sciences. In other scientific fields (psychology, life science, social science), women are found in much higher percentages. In this monograph, we undertake extensive life-course analyses comparing the trajectories of women and men in math-intensive fields with those of their counterparts in non-math-intensive fields in which women are close to parity with or even exceed the number of men. We begin by examining early-childhood differences in spatial processing and follow this through quantitative performance in middle childhood and adolescence, including high school coursework. We then focus on the transition of the sexes from high school to college major, then to graduate school, and, finally, to careers in academic science. The results of our myriad analyses reveal that early sex differences in spatial and mathematical reasoning need not stem from biological bases, that the gap between average female and male math ability is narrowing (suggesting strong environmental influences), and that sex differences in math ability at the right tail show variation over time and across nationalities, ethnicities, and other factors, indicating that the ratio of males to females at the right tail can and does change. We find that gender differences in attitudes toward and expectations about math careers and ability (controlling for actual ability) are evident by kindergarten and increase thereafter, leading to lower female propensities to major in math-intensive subjects in college but higher female propensities to major in non-math-intensive sciences, with overall science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) majors at 50% female for more than a decade. Post-college, although men with majors in math-intensive subjects have historically chosen and completed PhDs in these fields more often than women, the gap has recently narrowed by two thirds; among non-math-intensive STEM majors, women are more likely than men to go into health and other people-related occupations instead of pursuing PhDs. Importantly, of those who obtain doctorates in math-intensive fields, men and women entering the professoriate have equivalent access to tenure-track academic jobs in science, and they persist and are remunerated at comparable rates-with some caveats that we discuss. The transition from graduate programs to assistant professorships shows more pipeline leakage in the fields in which women are already very prevalent (psychology, life science, social science) than in the math-intensive fields in which they are underrepresented but in which the number of females holding assistant professorships is at least commensurate with (if not greater than) that of males. That is, invitations to interview for tenure-track positions in math-intensive fields-as well as actual employment offers-reveal that female PhD applicants fare at least as well as their male counterparts in math-intensive fields. Along these same lines, our analyses reveal that manuscript reviewing and grant funding are gender neutral: Male and female authors and principal investigators are equally likely to have their manuscripts accepted by journal editors and their grants funded, with only very occasional exceptions. There are no compelling sex differences in hours worked or average citations per publication, but there is an overall male advantage in productivity. We attempt to reconcile these results amid the disparate claims made regarding their causes, examining sex differences in citations, hours worked, and interests. We conclude by suggesting that although in the past, gender discrimination was an important cause of women's underrepresentation in scientific academic careers, this claim has continued to be invoked after it has ceased being a valid cause of women's underrepresentation in math-intensive fields. Consequently, current barriers to women's full participation in mathematically intensive academic science fields are rooted in pre-college factors and the subsequent likelihood of majoring in these fields, and future research should focus on these barriers rather than misdirecting attention toward historical barriers that no longer account for women's underrepresentation in academic science.

Are race, ethnicity, and medical school affiliation associated with NIH R01 type 1 award probability for physician investigators?

PURPOSE: To analyze the relationship among National Institutes of Health (NIH) R01 Type 1 applicant degree, institution type, and race/ethnicity, and application award probability. METHOD: The authors used 2000-2006 data from the NIH IMPAC II grants database and other sources to determine which individual and institutional characteristics of applicants may affect the probability of applications being awarded funding. They used descriptive statistics and probit models to estimate correlations between race/ethnicity, degree (MD or PhD), and institution type (medical school or other institution), and application award probability, controlling for a large set of observable characteristics. RESULTS: Applications from medical schools were significantly more likely than those from other institutions to receive funding, as were applications from MDs versus PhDs. Overall, applications from blacks and Asians were less likely than those from whites to be awarded funding; however, among applications from MDs at medical schools, there was no difference in funding probability between whites and Asians, and the difference between blacks and whites decreased to 7.8%. The inclusion of human subjects significantly decreased the likelihood of receiving funding. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with applications from whites, applications from blacks have a lower probability of being awarded R01 Type 1 funding, regardless of the investigator's degree. However, funding probability is increased for applications with MD investigators and for those from medical schools. To some degree, these advantages combine so that applications from black MDs at medical schools have the smallest difference in funding probability compared with those from whites.