ABSTRACT
BackgroundCoronavirus (COVID-19) poses health system challenges in every country. As with any public health emergency, a major component of the global response is timely, effective science. However, particular factors specific to COVID-19 must be overcome to ensure that research efforts are optimised. We aimed to model the impact of COVID-19 on the clinical academic response in the UK, and to provide recommendations for COVID-related research. MethodsWe constructed a simple stochastic model to determine clinical academic capacity in the UK in four policy approaches to COVID-19 with differing population infection rates: "Italy model" (6%), "mitigation" (10%), "relaxed mitigation" (40%) and "do-nothing" (80%) scenarios. The ability to conduct research in the COVID-19 climate is affected by the following key factors: (i) infection growth rate and population infection rate (from UK COVID-19 statistics and WHO); (ii) strain on the healthcare system (from published model); and (iii) availability of clinical academic staff with appropriate skillsets affected by frontline clinical activity and sickness (from UK statistics). FindingsIn "Italy model", "mitigation", "relaxed mitigation" and "do-nothing" scenarios, from 5 March 2020 the duration (days) and peak infection rates (%) are 95(2.4%), 115(2.5%), 240(5.3%) and 240(16.7%) respectively. Near complete attrition of academia (87% reduction, <400 clinical academics) occurs 35 days after pandemic start for 11, 34, 62, 76 days respectively - with no clinical academics at all for 37 days in the "do-nothing" scenario. Restoration of normal academic workforce (80% of normal capacity) takes 11,12, 30 and 26 weeks respectively. InterpretationPandemic COVID-19 crushes the science needed at system level. National policies mitigate, but the academic community needs to adapt. We highlight six key strategies: radical prioritisation (eg 3-4 research ideas per institution), deep resourcing, non-standard leadership (repurposing of key non-frontline teams), rationalisation (profoundly simple approaches), careful site selection (eg protected sites with large academic backup) and complete suspension of academic competition with collaborative approaches.
