Threatened birds, climate change, and human footprint: protected areas network in Neotropical grassland hotspot.

Climate change (CC) and human footprint (HF) shape species spatial patterns and may affect the effectiveness of Protected Areas (PAs) network. Spatial patterns of threatened bird species of Subtropical-temperate hotspots in Southeastern South American grasslands are relevant biodiversity features to guide conservation policies. However, the PAs network covers less than 1% of grassland areas and does not overlap areas with the most suitable environmental conditions for threatened birds. Our aim was to find the most environmentally suitable areas for both current and future threatened birds (2050 and 2070) in Entre Ríos. We applied Systematic Conservation Planning protocols with Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) and ZONATION using distribution interaction function and HF as a cost. Then we overlapped binary maps to find priority areas among time periods. HF showed a more fragmented spatial configuration. The PAs network may include environmentally suitable conditions for threatened birds in CC scenarios and HF. We found areas that showed more connectivity in landscape prioritization over time and ensure high-quality environmental conditions for birds. We concluded that the effectiveness of the PAs network could be improved by overlapping priority areas. Our approach provides a knowledge base as a contribution to conservation-related decisions by considering HF and CC.

Museums and cradles of diversity are geographically coincident for narrowly distributed neotropical snakes

Factors driving the spatial configuration of centres of endemism have long been a topic of broad interest and debate. Due to different eco-evolutionary processes, these highly biodiverse areas may harbour different amounts of ancient and recently diverged organisms (paleo- and neo-endemism, respectively). Patterns of endemism still need to be measured at distinct phylogenetic levels for most clades and, consequently, little is known about the distribution, the age and the causes of such patterns. Here we tested for the presence of centres with high phylogenetic endemism (PE) in the highly diverse Neotropical snakes, testing the age of these patterns (paleo- or neo-endemism), and the presence of PE centres with distinct phylogenetic composition. We then tested whether PE is predicted by topography, by climate (seasonality, stability, buffering and relictualness), or biome size. We found that most areas of high PE for Neotropical snakes present a combination of both ancient and recently diverged diversity, which is distributed mostly in the Caribbean region, Central America, the Andes, the Atlantic Forest and on scattered highlands in central Brazil. Turnover of lineages is higher across Central America, resulting in more phylogenetically distinct PE centres compared to South America, which presents a more phylogenetically uniform snake fauna. Finally, we found that elevational range (topographic roughness) is the main predictor of PE, especially for paleo-endemism, whereas low paleo-endemism levels coincide with areas of high climatic seasonality. Our study highlights the importance of mountain systems to both ancient and recent narrowly distributed diversity. Mountains are both museums and cradles of snake diversity in the Neotropics, which has important implications for conservation in this region.

Museums and cradles of diversity are geographically coincident for narrowly distributed neotropical snakes

Factors driving the spatial configuration of centres of endemism have long been a topic of broad interest and debate. Due to different eco-evolutionary processes, these highly biodiverse areas may harbour different amounts of ancient and recently diverged organisms (paleo- and neo-endemism, respectively). Patterns of endemism still need to be measured at distinct phylogenetic levels for most clades and, consequently, little is known about the distribution, the age and the causes of such patterns. Here we tested for the presence of centres with high phylogenetic endemism (PE) in the highly diverse Neotropical snakes, testing the age of these patterns (paleo- or neo-endemism), and the presence of PE centres with distinct phylogenetic composition. We then tested whether PE is predicted by topography, by climate (seasonality, stability, buffering and relictualness), or biome size. We found that most areas of high PE for Neotropical snakes present a combination of both ancient and recently diverged diversity, which is distributed mostly in the Caribbean region, Central America, the Andes, the Atlantic Forest and on scattered highlands in central Brazil. Turnover of lineages is higher across Central America, resulting in more phylogenetically distinct PE centres compared to South America, which presents a more phylogenetically uniform snake fauna. Finally, we found that elevational range (topographic roughness) is the main predictor of PE, especially for paleo-endemism, whereas low paleo-endemism levels coincide with areas of high climatic seasonality. Our study highlights the importance of mountain systems to both ancient and recent narrowly distributed diversity. Mountains are both museums and cradles of snake diversity in the Neotropics, which has important implications for conservation in this region.

Expansion of the agricultural frontier in the largest South American Dry Forest: Identifying priority conservation areas for snakes before everything is lost.

Conservation planning relies on integrating existing knowledge, social-environmental contexts, and potential threats to identify gaps and opportunities for action. Here we present a case study on how priority areas for conservation can be determined using existing information on biodiversity occurrence and threats. Specifically, our goals are: (1) to model the ecological niche of twelve endemic snake species in the Dry Chaco Forest, (2) to quantify the impact of the deforestation rates on their distributions, (3) to propose high priority areas for conservation in order to improve the actual protected area system, and (4) to evaluate the influence of the human footprint on the optimization of selected priority areas. Our results demonstrate that Argentinian Dry Chaco represent, on average, ~74% of the distribution of endemic snake species and deforestation has reduced suitable areas of all snake species in the region. Further, the current protected areas are likely insufficient to conserve these species as only very low percentages (3.27%) of snakes' ranges occur within existing protected areas. Our models identified high priority areas in the north of the Chaco forest where continuous, well-conserved forest still exists. These high priority areas include transition zones within the foothill forest and areas that could connect patches of forest between the western and eastern Chaco forest. Our findings identify spatial priorities that minimize conflicts with human activities, a key issue for this biodiversity hotspot area. We argue that consultation with stakeholders and decision-makers are urgently needed in order to take concrete actions to protect the habitat, or we risk losing the best conservation opportunities to protect endemic snakes that inhabit the Argentinian Dry Chaco.

Species distribution models and empirical test: Comparing predictions with well-understood geographical distribution of Bothrops alternatus in Argentina.

Species distribution models (SDMs) estimate the geographical distribution of species although with several limitations due to sources of inaccuracy and biases. Empirical tests arose as the most important steps in scientific knowledge to assess the efficiency of model predictions, which are poorly rigorous in SDMs. A good approach to the empirical distribution (ED) of a species can be obtained from comprehensive empirical knowledge, that is, well-understood distributions gathered from large amount of data generated with appropriate spatial and temporal samples coverage. The aims of this study were to (a) compare different SDMs predictions with an ED; and (b) evaluate if fuzzy global matching (FGM) could be used as an index to compare SDMs predictions and ED. Six algorithms with 5 and 20 variables were used to assess their accuracy in predicting the ED of the venomous snake Bothrops alternatus (Viperidae). Its entire distribution is known, thanks to thorough field surveys across Argentina, with 1,767 records. ED was compared with SDMs predictions using Map Comparison Kit. SDMs predictions showed important biases in all methods used, from 70% sub-estimation to 40% over-estimation of ED. BIOCLIM predicted ≈31% of B. alternatus ED. DOMAIN predicted 99% of ED, but over-estimated 40% of the area. GLM with five variables calculated 75% of ED, while Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction showed ≈60% of ED; the last two presenting overpredictions in areas with favorable climatic conditions but not inhabited by the species. MaxEnt and RF were the only methods to detect isolated populations in the southern distribution of B. alternatus. Although SDMs proved useful in making predictions about species distribution, predictions need validation with expert maps knowledge and ED. Moreover, FGM showed a good performance as an index with values similar to True Skill Statistic, so that it could be used to relate ED and SDMs predictions.

Is xenodontine snake reproduction shaped by ancestry, more than by ecology?

One of the current challenges of evolutionary ecology is to understand the effects of phylogenetic history (PH) and/or ecological factors (EF) on the life-history traits of the species. Here, the effects of environment and phylogeny are tested for the first time on the reproductive biology of South American xenodontine snakes. We studied 60% of the tribes of this endemic and most representative clade in a temperate region of South America. A comparative method (canonical phylogenetic ordination-CPO) was used to find the relative contributions of EF and PH upon life-history aspects of snakes, comparing the reproductive mode, mean fecundity, reproductive potential, and frequency of nearly 1,000 specimens. CPO analysis showed that PH or ancestry explained most of the variation in reproduction, whereas EF explained little of this variation. The reproductive traits under study are suggested to have a strong phylogenetic signal in this clade, the ancestry playing a big role in reproduction. The EF also influenced the reproduction of South American xenodontines, although to a lesser extent. Our finding provides new evidence of how the evolutionary history is embodied in the traits of living species.

Temperate snake community in South America: is diet determined by phylogeny or ecology?

Communities are complex and dynamic systems that change with time. The first attempts to explain how they were structured involve contemporary phenomena like ecological interactions between species (e.g., competition and predation) and led to the competition-predation hypothesis. Recently, the deep history hypothesis has emerged, which suggests that profound differences in the evolutionary history of organisms resulted in a number of ecological features that remain largely on species that are part of existing communities. Nevertheless, both phylogenetic structure and ecological interactions can act together to determine the structure of a community. Because diet is one of the main niche axes, in this study we evaluated, for the first time, the impact of ecological and phylogenetic factors on the diet of Neotropical snakes from the subtropical-temperate region of South America. Additionally, we studied their relationship with morphological and environmental aspects to understand the natural history and ecology of this community. A canonical phylogenetical ordination analysis showed that phylogeny explained most of the variation in diet, whereas ecological characters explained very little of this variation. Furthermore, some snakes that shared the habitat showed some degree of diet convergence, in accordance with the competition-predation hypothesis, although phylogeny remained the major determinant in structuring this community. The clade with the greatest variability was the subfamily Dipsadinae, whose members had a very different type of diet, based on soft-bodied invertebrates. Our results are consistent with the deep history hypothesis, and we suggest that the community under study has a deep phylogenetic effect that explains most of the variation in the diet.

How do demographic and social factors influence parent-offspring conflict? The case of wild black and gold howler monkeys (Alouatta caraya).

In this study, we examined the influence of demography and social context on mother-offspring conflict in wild black and gold howler monkeys (Alouatta caraya) inhabiting two nearby sites in northern Argentina, one comprising continuous forest and one fragmented forest. These sites differed in population density (3.25 vs. 1.04 individuals/ha), degree of home range overlap between neighboring groups (70 vs. 31%), and rate of intergroup encounters (2 vs. 0.02-1 encounters/day), though not in interbirth interval or rate of infant mortality. During a 27-month study (September 2008 through November 2010), we observed 37 mother-offspring dyads across the two sites. We found a very similar pattern of mother-offspring conflict in both populations; specifically, the sites did not differ in any of the variables used to characterize the mother-offspring relationship (the time spent in contact, the rate at which the mother makes and breaks contact, the rate at which the infant breaks contact, the rate of maternal rejection, and signs of infant distress) except one (the rate at which the infant makes contact). Although mother-offspring conflict is a dynamic process that varies over time, our results suggest that the different demographic and social contexts found at the two study sites did not have a marked effect on quantitative aspects of the mother-offspring relationship in these populations of black and gold howlers. Finally, this study suggests that the environmental variability (ecological, demographic, and social traits) leads to a set of strategies used both by infants and mothers with a main goal of conflict resolution, with mothers specifically aiming to cope with the tradeoff between current and future reproduction.