Inferring population decline and expansion from microsatellite data: a simulation-based evaluation of the Msvar method.

Reconstructing the demographic history of populations is a central issue in evolutionary biology. Using likelihood-based methods coupled with Monte Carlo simulations, it is now possible to reconstruct past changes in population size from genetic data. Using simulated data sets under various demographic scenarios, we evaluate the statistical performance of Msvar, a full-likelihood Bayesian method that infers past demographic change from microsatellite data. Our simulation tests show that Msvar is very efficient at detecting population declines and expansions, provided the event is neither too weak nor too recent. We further show that Msvar outperforms two moment-based methods (the M-ratio test and Bottleneck) for detecting population size changes, whatever the time and the severity of the event. The same trend emerges from a compilation of empirical studies. The latest version of Msvar provides estimates of the current and the ancestral population size and the time since the population started changing in size. We show that, in the absence of prior knowledge, Msvar provides little information on the mutation rate, which results in biased estimates and/or wide credibility intervals for each of the demographic parameters. However, scaling the population size parameters with the mutation rate and scaling the time with current population size, as coalescent theory requires, significantly improves the quality of the estimates for contraction but not for expansion scenarios. Finally, our results suggest that Msvar is robust to moderate departures from a strict stepwise mutation model.

Phenotypic divergence during the invasion of Phyla canescens in Australia and France: evidence for selection-driven evolution.

Rapid adaptive evolution has been advocated as a mechanism that promotes invasion. Demonstrating adaptive evolution in invasive species requires rigorous analysis of phenotypic shifts driven by selection. Here, we document selection-driven evolution of Phyla canescens, an Argentine weed, in two invaded regions (Australia and France). Invasive populations possessed similar or higher diversity than native populations, and displayed mixed lineages from different sources, suggesting that genetic bottlenecks in both countries might have been alleviated by multiple introductions. Compared to native populations, Australian populations displayed more investment in sexual reproduction, whereas French populations possessed enhanced vegetative reproduction and growth. We partitioned evolutionary forces (selection vs. stochastic events) using two independent methods. Results of both analyses suggest that the pattern of molecular and phenotypic variability among regions was consistent with selection-driven evolution, rather than stochastic events. Our findings indicate that selection has shaped the evolution of P. canescens in two different invaded regions.