Associations among hospital capacity, utilization, and mortality of US Medicare beneficiaries, controlling for sociodemographic factors.

OBJECTIVE: To explore whether geographic variations in Medicare hospital utilization rates are due to differences in local hospital capacity, after controlling for socioeconomic status and disease burden, and to determine whether greater hospital capacity is associated with lower Medicare mortality rates. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: The study population: a 20 percent sample of 1989 Medicare enrollees. Measures of resources were based on a national small area analysis of 313 Hospital Referral Regions (HRR). Demographic and socioeconomic data were obtained from the 1990 U.S. Census. Measures of local disease burden were developed using Medicare claims files. STUDY DESIGN: The study was a cross-sectional analysis of the relationship between per capita measures of hospital resources in each region and hospital utilization and mortality rates among Medicare enrollees. Regression techniques were used to control for differences in sociodemographic characteristics and disease burden across areas. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Data on the study population were obtained from Medicare enrollment (Denominator File) and hospital claims files (MedPAR) and U.S. Census files. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The per capita supply of hospital beds varied by more than twofold across U.S. regions. Residents of areas with more beds were up to 30 percent more likely to be hospitalized, controlling for ecologic measures of socioeconomic characteristics and disease burden. A greater proportion of the population was hospitalized at least once during the year in areas with more beds; death was also more likely to take place in an inpatient setting. All effects were consistent across racial and income groups. Residence in areas with greater levels of hospital resources was not associated with a decreased risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: Residence in areas of greater hospital capacity is associated with substantially increased use of the hospital, even after controlling for socioeconomic characteristics and illness burden. This increased use provides no detectable mortality benefit.

Income, race, and surgery in Maryland.

BACKGROUND: We describe common surgical and medical hospital admission rates for Maryland residents, exploring systematic effects of race and income. METHODS: The data comprise Maryland hospital discharges and population estimates for 1985 to 1987. Patient income is the race-specific median family income of residence zip code. Logistic regression is used to measure incidence by race, income, and residence for surgical and medical reasons for admission. RESULTS: Population rates for discretionary orthopedic, vascular, and laryngologic surgery tend to increase with community income levels. Coronary and carotid artery surgery rates are two to three times higher among Whites. The more discretionary the procedure, the lower is the relative incidence among Blacks. By contrast, admission rates for most medical reasons decline with increasing income levels and are elevated among Blacks. The affluent receive coronary artery procedures whereas the poor are hospitalized for coronary artery disease. CONCLUSIONS: Blacks and the poor appear to have higher illness burdens requiring hospital care. Discretionary surgeries have a White predominance and increase with income; medical admissions have a Black predominance and decline with income. Race and community income level are important factors in differential hospital utilization rates.

Pancreatic response to percutaneous biliary drainage: a prospective study.

To evaluate the effects of percutaneous biliary drainage (PBD) on the pancreas, serum amylase levels were measured for 7 consecutive days after PBD and compared with baseline values in 50 patients who underwent a total of 53 PBD procedures. Of the 45 patients with normal baseline serum amylase levels, 12 patients (24%) developed postprocedural hyperamylasemia without clinical symptoms and five patients (10%) developed postprocedural hyperamylasemia with clinical signs of pancreatitis. Five patients who presented with elevated baseline serum amylase levels demonstrated decreases into the normal range after placement of stents without initiation of bowel rest or liquid diet. The level of biliary obstruction proved insignificant, as did the nature of the obstructing disease, in determining which patients would experience hyperamylasemia or pancreatitis after PBD. It is concluded that the frequency of pancreatic insult from PBD may be more common than previously reported and that patient susceptibility is not dependent on the level of biliary obstruction or the nature of the disease.

Predictors of inducible sustained ventricular tachyarrhythmias in patients with coronary artery disease.

To determine predictors of inducible sustained ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation by programmed electrical stimulation in patients with coronary artery disease and ventricular tachyarrhythmias, 14 clinical and angiographic variables were analyzed in 60 consecutive patients. All patients had angiographically documented coronary artery disease and symptomatic ventricular arrhythmias (sustained ventricular tachycardia in 21, ventricular fibrillation in 21 and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia in 18). Baseline programmed electrical stimulation while the patient was not taking antiarrhythmic drugs was performed with use of single, double and triple extrastimuli and burst pacing from two right ventricular sites. The variables analyzed were presenting arrhythmia; presence, frequency and complexity of ventricular ectopic activity on baseline 24 h electrocardiographic (Holter) monitoring; greater than or equal to 70% narrowing in either the left anterior descending, proximal left anterior descending, right coronary or circumflex coronary artery (independently assessed); single, double or triple vessel coronary disease; anterior, apical or inferior wall motion abnormalities; segmental dyskinesia and ejection fraction. Thirty-seven patients (62%) had inducible sustained ventricular tachycardia (rate greater than 100 beats/min, duration greater than 30 s or requiring cardioversion) and two patients (3%) had ventricular fibrillation induced. Eleven patients (18%) had nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (duration greater than or equal to 3 beats, less than 30 s) induced and 10 patients (17%) had no inducible arrhythmia (duration less than 3 beats). Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis identified three independent variables predictive of inducible sustained ventricular arrhythmias: sustained ventricular tachycardia as the presenting arrhythmia (p = 0.004), proximal left anterior descending artery lesion (p = 0.002) and anterior wall motion abnormality (p = 0.005).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Morphometric measurement of tumor volume and per cent of gland involvement as predictors of pathological stage in clinical stage B prostate cancer.

Although tumor volume is an important factor in predicting prognosis in carcinoma of the prostate, direct and accurate estimation of tumor volume is not practical clinically at present because the tumor may not always be palpable (stage A) and when palpable it is difficult to estimate volume in 3 dimensions. For this reason the clinical staging of prostate cancer currently is based on estimations of the per cent of gland involved with tumor: in stage A by per cent of tissue involved with cancer and in stage B by digital palpation (less than 1 lobe, 1 lobe and 2 lobes). In stage A prostate cancer the per cent of the specimen involved with tumor and the volume of tumor have been shown to correlate with tumor progression. Our study was designed to determine if either or both of these morphometric factors would be good predictors of pathological stage in stage B prostate cancer. We analyzed 56 step-sectioned radical prostatectomy specimens: 28 without capsular penetration, 15 with capsular penetration only and 13 with seminal vesicle involvement. The per cent of gland involved with tumor (correlation coefficient 0.67, p less than 0.001) and tumor volume (correlation coefficient 0.55, p less than 0.001) correlated well with pathological stage. Stepwise linear regression showed that the combination of the per cent of gland involved with tumor and the total Gleason grade was statistically the best predictor of pathological stage.

Epidemiologic observations on feline immunodeficiency virus and Toxoplasma gondii coinfection in cats in Baltimore, Md.

Five hundred eighty-five serum samples obtained between 1980 and 1981 from a diverse population of cats were tested by use of an indirect immunoperoxidase assay for antibodies to feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV). Results of 14 of the samples were positive (prevalence, 2.4%). The FIV-positive cats were markedly older than the overall population and frequently were coinfected (57%) with Toxoplasma gondii. The Toxoplasma titers of the FIV-positive cats were significantly (P less than 0.03) higher than those of the FIV-negative cats. The FIV-positive cats were not coinfected with FeLV. Our findings suggested that FIV-associated immunosuppression may be a factor in active Toxoplasma infection in adult cats.

Poverty, race, and hospitalization for childhood asthma.

This study uses Maryland hospital discharge data for the period 1979-82 to determine whether Black children are more likely to be hospitalized for asthma and whether this difference persists after adjustment for poverty. The average annual asthma discharge rate was 1.95/1000 children aged 1-19; 3.75/1000 for Black children, and 1.25/1000 for White. Medicaid-enrolled children of both races had increased discharge rates for asthma compared to those whose care was paid for by other sources: 5.68/1000 vs 2.99/1000 for Blacks, and 3.10/1000 vs 1.11/1000 for Whites. When ecologic analyses were performed, populations of Black and White children had nearly equal asthma discharge rates after adjustment for poverty. The statewide adjusted rate was 2.70/1000 (95% CL = 1.93, 3.78) for Black children and 2.10/1000 (1.66, 2.66) for White children. Among Maryland counties and health planning districts, variation in asthma discharge rates was not associated with the supply of hospital beds or the population to primary-care physician ratio. We conclude that Black children are at increased risk of hospitalization for asthma, but that some or all of this increase is related to poverty rather than to race.

Increased risk of cancer in the Peutz-Jeghers syndrome.

The Peutz-Jeghers syndrome is an autosomal dominant hereditary disease characterized by hamartomatous polyps of the gastrointestinal tract and by mucocutaneous melanin deposits. The frequency of cancer in this syndrome has not been studied extensively. Therefore, we investigated 31 patients with the Peutz-Jeghers syndrome who were followed from 1973 to 1985. All cases of cancer were verified by histopathological review. Cancer developed in 15 of the 31 patients (48 percent)--gastrointestinal carcinomas in 4, nongastrointestinal carcinomas in 10, and multiple myeloma in 1. In addition, adenomatous polyps of the stomach and colon occurred in three other patients. The cancers were diagnosed when the patients were relatively young, but after the Peutz-Jeghers syndrome had been diagnosed (interval between diagnoses, 25 +/- 20 years; range, 1 to 64). According to relative-risk analysis, the observed development of cancer in the patients with the syndrome was 18 times greater than expected in the general population (P less than 0.0001). Our results suggest that patients with the Peutz-Jeghers syndrome have an increased risk for the development of cancer at gastrointestinal and nongastrointestinal sites.

Mortality from polymyositis and dermatomyositis in the United States, 1968-1978.

Mortality from polymyositis and dermatomyositis was estimated between 1968 and 1978. Age-specific average annual mortality rates showed unimodal distributions for all sex-race groups. Synergistic interaction was demonstrated between female sex and nonwhite race, greatest mortality being in nonwhite females through age 74. Increases in annual death rates occurred among both white males and white females during the interval. Finally, the increase in mean age at death among all sex groups correlated with improved prognosis as well as decreased mortality among younger persons over time.

On the distribution of underlying causes of death.

The feasibility of applying surveillance techniques to large health data sets is being explored through study of a national mortality data base encompassing 21 million United States death records for the period 1968--1978. Through the development of efficient file structures and information recovery techniques, it is possible to pose a series of questions and follow-up questions of the entire data set within budgetary constraints. Initial screening of the mortality data base reveals that major changes have occurred over the 11 years with marked declines for diseases of cardiovascular, respiratory, digestive and renal systems, and maternal and perinatal mortality. There is a tendency for increased usage of non-specific terminology. The occurrence of unlikely and unusual causes in the data set is documented and reasons for their inclusion discussed in terms of underlying cause of death logic. Problems in the study of geographic distributions of cause specific mortality are outlined with illustrations of the dispersion of standardized mortality ratios for major causes of death over areas of the country. Clusters of high mortality areas require interpretation in terms of underlying dispersion and possible reporting artifacts arising out of geographic differentials in diagnostic labeling practice.

Surgical decision making. The reliability of clinical judgment.

Elective surgery second opinion programs are predicted on strict acceptance of the accuracy of the consultant's surgical judgment. The reliability and reproducibility of clinical judgment, therefore, become basic to the effectiveness of such programs. This aspect, however, has received little attention. We report a randomized and controlled survey of surgical specialists which defines agreement/disagreement patterns in surgical decision-making for seven elective surgical procedures. For each disease process, four case histories, including at least one control, were developed by specialty panels of physicians. The case summaries described fictional patients who were seeking professional consultation. The histories were mailed to a random sample of Board-certified specialists from the State of Maryland and the District of Columbia. The response rate was approximately 80% for all five specialties. The respondents were asked to indicate whether they would (Yes) or would not (No) perform the surgical procedure in question. Factual knowledge was not sought, but instead the application of that knowledge and experience to decide on the need for surgical intervention. By comparing the responses for each case history, the agreement/disagreement patterns of inter-observer surgical judgment were determined. Analysis of the data revealed a marked divergence of opinion concerning the need for surgery. The significant point of this study is that surgical judgment differs to a major degree from one surgeon to the next. In a second-opinion program the number of consultants needed to provide a reliable clinical decision probably exceeds the number who are logistically available and that the patient would be willing to visit. Surgical decision-making is a semi-exact scientific process, and it is unreasonable to expect exact answers to clinical problems.

Changes in tonsillectomy rates associated with feedback and review.

Among 13 Vermont Hospital Service Areas, tonsillectomy rates decreased over a five-year period. In 1969, the rates in seven areas exceeded the estimated United States national rate; by 1973, the average rate for all areas had declined 46% and only one area remained above the U.S. rate. Much of the change occurred after feedback of data to the Vermont State Medical Society demonstrating 1969 variations. In 12 of the 13 areas, the relationship between feedback and change in clinical practices could not be documented; however, physicians in the area with the highest rate reviewed the indications for tonsillectomy and adopted a second opinion procedure for reviewing candidates for the surgery. The experience suggests that feedback of population-based data on incidence of procedures may be a valuable tool for the peer review process.