Life expectancy in Italian track and field athletes.

Nine hundred eighty-three top Italian track and field athletes (700 males and 283 females) were examined for survival, mortality and causes of death for an average follow-up period of 18.6 years starting from their last year of competition as members of the national team. Overall mortality rates were compared to the rates expected on the basis of the life tables for Italian people of the same age, sex and time period. Thirty-four deaths were observed among males (vs 46.6 expected) with a O/E ratio of 0.73, while 3 deaths were observed among women (vs 6.2 expected) with a O/E ratio of 0.48. Neither of these differences was significant, but the O/E ratio for the group as a whole was quite significant (p = 0.0296). Some of the athletes demonstrated behavioural characteristics developed during their active careers that might have contributed to their low mortality rate.

The predictive role of systolic, diastolic and mean blood pressures on cardiovascular and all causes of death.

Systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP) and mean [MBP = diastolic + 1/3 (systolic - diastolic)] blood pressures were compared as predictors of all causes of death (ALL) and of deaths from atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD) in 2480 men, aged 40-59 years, belonging to three cohorts followed up for 20 years. Both univariate analysis, based on distribution of events in age-specific quintile classes of blood pressures, and multivariate analysis, based on the Cox proportional hazards model with five covariates as possible confounders, clearly showed the superiority of SBP over DBP in predicting fatal events; MBP played an intermediate role.

The prediction of future health in healthy middle-aged men.

Two cohorts of men aged 49-59 at entry, representing cluster samples of two rural areas in Northern and Central Italy, for a total of 1712 subjects have been followed-up for 20 years within an epidemiological study originally designed for cardiovascular disease. After 20 years, only 41 men have been judged to have remained substancially healthy throughout the observation period, i.e. free from a number of major diseases. Univariate and multivariate analyses trying to predict the maintenance of health status showed that among 21 selected characteristics only the following one had a significant power: age, cigarette smoking (adverse effect) and vital capacity (favourable effect). A minor role was also played by the body mass index (adverse effect) and forced expiratory volume (favourable effect). Those who did not remain healthy exibited a greater increase in blood pressure and body mass index.

Incidence of coronary heart disease in two generations of men exposed to different levels of risk factors.

Within an epidemiological study on coronary heart disease (CHD) (alive) two samples of middle aged men living in two rural areas of Northern and Central Italy, two subgroups of individuals aged 51-59 (alive), free from CHD (alive) belonging to different generations have been identified. Group A (n = 593) was followed-up from 1960 to 1970 and group B (n = 553) from 1970 to 1980. Entry mean levels of some classical risk factors were higher in group B than in group A (serum cholesterol by 19 mg/dl; diastolic blood pressure by 2.9 mmHg; body mass index by 0.9 units), whereas physical activity at work was lower by 0.2 units of a score. The 10 year incidence of hard-criteria CHD events has been higher though not significantly so in group B by 19%, suggesting a connection with the different levels of risk factors, mainly serum cholesterol.

Prediction of all causes of death as a function of some factors commonly measured in cardiovascular population surveys.

A 20-year follow-up study for all causes of death has been conducted on two groups of men aged 40-59 at entry in two rural communities of northern and central Italy on a total of 1,712 subjects representing 98.9% of defined demographic samples. Personal characteristics or risk factors usually studied for coronary heart disease (CHD), as measured at entry, have been related to the risk of dying in 20 years (600 cases). By means of multivariate analysis, 11 out of 33 considered characteristics were shown to be significant predictors of any cause of death. These were mean blood pressure, age, arm circumference (protective), early death of parents, cigarette smoking, forced expiratory volume (protective), CHD, arcus senilis, vital capacity (protective), xanthelasma, and serum cholesterol. Discrimination between cases and noncases was satisfactory with about 40% of deaths in the upper quintile of the estimated distribution of risk and less than 7% in the lowest quintile (relative risk = 6.20).