Unwinding And The Medicaid Undercount: Millions Enrolled In Medicaid During The Pandemic Thought They Were Uninsured.

Policy responses to the March 31, 2023, expiration of the Medicaid continuous coverage provision need to consider the difference between self-reported Medicaid participation on government surveys and administrative records of Medicaid enrollment. The difference between the two is known as the "Medicaid undercount." The size of the undercount increased substantially after the continuous coverage provision took effect in March 2020. Using longitudinal data from the Current Population Survey, we examined this change. We found that assuming that all beneficiaries who ever reported enrolling in Medicaid during the COVID-19 pandemic public health emergency remained enrolled through 2022 (as required by the continuous coverage provision) eliminated the worsening of the undercount. We estimated that nearly half of the 5.9 million people who we projected were likely to become uninsured after the provision expired, or "unwound," already reported that they were uninsured in the 2022 Current Population Survey. This finding suggests that the impact of ending the continuous coverage provision on the estimated uninsurance rate, based on self-reported survey data, may have been smaller than anticipated. It also means that efforts to address Medicaid unwinding should include people who likely remain eligible for Medicaid but believe that they are already uninsured.

Major Traffic Safety Reform and Road Traffic Injuries Among Low-Income New York Residents, 2009-2021.

Objectives. To evaluate the effects of a comprehensive traffic safety policy-New York City's (NYC's) 2014 Vision Zero-on the health of Medicaid enrollees. Methods. We conducted difference-in-differences analyses using individual-level New York Medicaid data to measure traffic injuries and expenditures from 2009 to 2021, comparing NYC to surrounding counties without traffic reforms (n = 65 585 568 person-years). Results. After Vision Zero, injury rates among NYC Medicaid enrollees diverged from those of surrounding counties, with a net impact of 77.5 fewer injuries per 100 000 person-years annually (95% confidence interval = -97.4, -57.6). We observed marked reductions in severe injuries (brain injury, hospitalizations) and savings of $90.8 million in Medicaid expenditures over the first 5 years. Effects were largest among Black residents. Impacts were reversed during the COVID-19 period. Conclusions. Vision Zero resulted in substantial protection for socioeconomically disadvantaged populations known to face heightened risk of injury, but the policy's effectiveness decreased during the pandemic period. Public Health Implications. Many cities have recently launched Vision Zero policies and others plan to do so. This research adds to the evidence on how and in what circumstances comprehensive traffic policies protect public health. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(6):633-641. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307617).

Housing-Sensitive Health Conditions Can Predict Poor-Quality Housing.

Improving housing quality may improve residents' health, but identifying buildings in poor repair is challenging. We developed a method to improve health-related building inspection targeting. Linking New York City Medicaid claims data to Landlord Watchlist data, we used machine learning to identify housing-sensitive health conditions correlated with a building's presence on the Watchlist. We identified twenty-three specific housing-sensitive health conditions in five broad categories consistent with the existing literature on housing and health. We used these results to generate a housing health index from building-level claims data that can be used to rank buildings by the likelihood that their poor quality is affecting residents' health. We found that buildings in the highest decile of the housing health index (controlling for building size, community district, and subsidization status) scored worse across a variety of housing quality indicators, validating our approach. We discuss how the housing health index could be used by local governments to target building inspections with a focus on improving health.

Improving Labor Outcomes among People with Mild or Moderate Mental Illness through Law and Policy Reform.

Mild and moderate mental illnesses can hinder labor force participation, lead to work interruptions, and hamper earning potential. Targeted interventions have proven effective at addressing these problems. But their potential depends on labor protections that enable people to take advantage of these interventions while keeping jobs and income.

Hospital concentration and low-income populations: Evidence from New York State Medicaid.

While a large body of evidence has examined hospital concentration, its effects on health care for low-income populations are less explored. We use comprehensive discharge data from New York State to measure the effects of changes in market concentration on hospital-level inpatient Medicaid volumes. Holding fixed hospital factors constant, a one percent increase in HHI leads to a 0.6% (s.e. = 0.28%) decrease in the number of Medicaid admissions for the average hospital. The strongest effects are on admissions for birth (-1.3%, s.e. = 0.58%). These average hospital-level decreases largely reflect redistribution of Medicaid patients across hospitals, rather than overall reductions in hospitalizations for Medicaid patients. In particular, hospital concentration leads to a redistribution of admissions from non-profit hospitals to public hospitals. We find evidence that for births, physicians serving high shares of Medicaid beneficiaries in particular experience reduced admissions as concentration increased. These reductions may reflect preferences among these physicians or reduced admitting privileges by hospitals as a means to screen out Medicaid patients.

Association of Insurance Mix and Diagnostic Coding Practices in New York State Hospitals.

Importance: Given higher reimbursement rates, hospitals primarily serving privately insured patients may invest more in intensive coding than hospitals serving publicly insured patients. This may lead these hospitals to code more diagnoses for all patients. Objective: To estimate whether, for the same Medicaid enrollee with multiple hospitalizations, a hospital's share of privately insured patients is associated with the number of diagnoses on claims. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used patient-level fixed effects regression models on inpatient Medicaid claims from Medicaid enrollees with at least 2 admissions in at least 2 different hospitals in New York State between 2010 and 2017. Analyses were conducted from 2019 to 2021. Exposures: The annual share of privately insured patients at the admitting hospital. Main Outcomes and Measures: Number of diagnostic codes per admission. Probability of diagnoses being from a list of conditions shown to be intensely coded in response to payment incentives. Results: This analysis included 1 614 630 hospitalizations for Medicaid-insured patients (mean [SD] age, 48.2 [20.1] years; 829 684 [51.4%] women and 784 946 [48.6%] men). Overall, 74 998 were Asian (4.6%), 462 259 Black (28.6%), 375 591 Hispanic (23.3%), 486 313 White (30.1%), 128 896 unknown (8.0%), and 86 573 other (5.4%). When the same patient was seen in a hospital with a higher share of privately insured patients, more diagnoses were recorded (0.03 diagnoses per percentage point [pp] increase in share of privately insured; 95% CI, 0.02-0.05; P < .001). Patients discharged from hospitals in the bottom quartile of privately insured patient share received 1.37 more diagnoses when they were subsequently discharged from hospitals in the top quartile, relative to patients whose admissions were both in the bottom quartile (95% CI, 1.21-1.53; P < .001). Those going from hospitals in the top quartile to the bottom had 1.67 fewer diagnoses (95% CI, -1.84 to -1.50; P < .001). Diagnoses in hospitals with a higher private payer share were more likely to be for conditions sensitive to payment incentives (0.08 pp increase for each pp increase in private share; 95% CI, 0.06-0.10; P < .001). These findings were replicated in 2016 to 2017 data. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of Medicaid enrollees, admission to a hospital with a higher private payer share was associated with more diagnoses on Medicaid claims. This suggests payment policy may drive differential investments in infrastructure to document diagnoses. This may create a feedback loop that exacerbates resource inequity.

Health Savings Accounts No Longer Promote Consumer Cost-Consciousness.

Two decades ago Congress enabled Americans to open tax-favored health savings accounts (HSAs) in conjunction with qualifying high-deductible health plans (HDHPs). This HSA tax break is regressive: Higher-income Americans are more likely to have HSAs and fund them at higher levels. Proponents, however, have argued that this regressivity is offset by reductions in wasteful health care spending because consumers with HDHPs are more cost-conscious in their use of care. Using published sources and our own analysis of National Health Interview Survey data, we argue that HSAs no longer appreciably achieve this cost-consciousness aim because cost sharing has increased so much in non-HSA-qualified plans. Indeed, people who have HDHPs with HSAs are becoming less likely than others with private insurance to report financial barriers to care. In sum, promised gains in efficiency from HSAs have not borne out, so it is difficult to justify maintaining this regressive tax break.

Eviction, Healthcare Utilization, and Disenrollment Among New York City Medicaid Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Although growing evidence links residential evictions to health, little work has examined connections between eviction and healthcare utilization or access. In this study, eviction records are linked to Medicaid claims to estimate short-term associations between eviction and healthcare utilization, as well as Medicaid disenrollment. METHODS: New York City eviction records from 2017 were linked to New York State Medicaid claims, with 1,300 evicted patients matched to 261,855 non-evicted patients with similar past healthcare utilization, demographics, and neighborhoods. Outcomes included patients' number of acute and ambulatory care visits, healthcare spending, Medicaid disenrollment, and pharmaceutical prescription fills during 6 months of follow-up. Coarsened exact matching was used to strengthen causal inference in observational data. Weighted generalized linear models were then fit, including censoring weights. Analyses were conducted in 2019-2021. RESULTS: Eviction was associated with 63% higher odds of losing Medicaid coverage (95% CI=1.38, 1.92, p<0.001), fewer pharmaceutical prescription fills (incidence rate ratio=0.68, 95% CI=0.52, 0.88, p=0.004), and lower odds of generating any healthcare spending (OR=0.72, 95% CI=0.61, 0.85, p<0.001). However, among patients who generated any spending, average spending was 20% higher for those evicted (95% CI=1.03, 1.40, p=0.017), such that evicted patients generated more spending on balance. Marginally significant estimates suggested associations with increased acute, and decreased ambulatory, care visits. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that eviction drives increased healthcare spending while disrupting healthcare access. Given previous research that Medicaid expansion lowered eviction rates, eviction and Medicaid disenrollment may operate cyclically, accumulating disadvantage. Preventing evictions may improve access to care and lower Medicaid costs.

Robotic Prostatectomy and Prostate Cancer-Related Medicaid Spending: Evidence from New York State.

BACKGROUND: Robotic prostatectomy is a costly new technology, but the costs may be offset by changes in treatment patterns. The net effect of this technology on Medicaid spending has not been assessed. OBJECTIVE: To identify the association of the local availability of robotic surgical technology with choice of initial treatment for prostate cancer and total prostate cancer-related treatment costs. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study used New York State Medicaid data to examine the experience of 9564 Medicaid beneficiaries 40-64 years old who received a prostate biopsy between 2008 and 2017 and were diagnosed with prostate cancer. The local availability of robotic surgical technology was measured as distance from zip code centroids of patient's residence to the nearest hospital with a robot and the annual number of robotic prostatectomies performed in the Hospital Referral Region. MAIN MEASURES: Multivariate linear models were used to relate regional access to robots to the choice of initial therapy and prostate cancer treatment costs during the year after diagnosis. KEY RESULTS: The mean age of the sample of 9564 men was 58 years; 30% of the sample were White, 26% were Black, and 22% were Hispanic. Doubling the distance to the nearest hospital with a robot was associated with a reduction in robotic surgery rates of 3.7 percentage points and an increase in the rate of use of radiation therapy of 5.2 percentage points. Increasing the annual number of robotic surgeries performed in a region by 10 was associated with a decrease in the probability of undergoing radiation therapy of 0.6 percentage point and a $434 reduction in total prostate cancer-related costs per Medicaid patient. CONCLUSIONS: A full accounting of the costs of a new technology will depend on when it is used and the payment rate for its use relative to payment rates for substitutes.

Associations Between a New York City Paid Sick Leave Mandate and Health Care Utilization Among Medicaid Beneficiaries in New York City and New York State.

Importance: More evidence on associations between mandated paid sick leave and health service utilization among low-income adults is needed to guide health policy and legislation nationwide. Objective: To evaluate the association between New York City's 2014 paid sick leave mandate and health care utilization among Medicaid-enrolled adults. Design Setting and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used New York State Medicaid administrative data for adults 18 to 64 years old continuously enrolled in Medicaid from August 1, 2011, through July 31, 2017. A difference-in-differences approach with entropy balancing weights was used to compare New York City with the rest of New York State to assess the association of the paid sick leave mandate with health care utilization, and for those 40 to 64 years old, with preventive care utilization. The data analysis was performed from June through August 2020. Exposures: Temporal and spatial variation in exposure to the mandate. Main Outcomes and Measures: Annual health care utilization (emergency care, specialist visits, and primary care clinician visits) per Medicaid-enrolled adult. Secondary outcomes include categories of emergency utilization and utilization of 5 preventive services. Results: Of 552 857 individuals (mean [SD] age, 43 [12] years; 351 130 [64%] women) who met inclusion criteria, 99 181 (18%) were White, 162 492 (29%) Black, and 138 061 (25%) Hispanic. Paid sick leave was significantly associated with a reduction in the probability of emergency care (-0.6 percentage points [pp]; 95% CI, -0.7 to -0.5 pp; P < .001), including a 0.3 pp reduction (95% CI, -0.4 to -0.2; P < .001) in care for conditions treatable in a primary care setting and an increase in annual outpatient visits (0.124 pp; 95% CI, 0.040 to 0.208 pp; P < .001). Among those 40 to 64 years old, the mandate was significantly associated with increased probabilities of glycated hemoglobin A1c level testing (2.9 pp; 95% CI, 2.5-3.3 pp; P < .001), blood cholesterol testing (2.7 pp; 95% CI, 2.5-2.9 pp; P < .001), and colon cancer screening (0.4 pp; 95% CI, 0.2-0.6 pp; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: This retrospective cohort study of nonelderly adults enrolled in Medicaid New York State showed that mandated paid sick leave in New York City was significantly associated with differences in several dimensions of health care services use.

Jobs for People With Mental Health Conditions: Trends and Prospects.

OBJECTIVE: For individuals with serious mental illness, work can play an important role in improving quality of life and community integration. Since the 1960s, demand has shifted away from routine cognitive (e.g., clerical work) and manual skills (warehouse picking and packing) toward nonroutine analytical (computer coding), interpersonal (nursing), and manual skills (home health attendant). This study aimed to determine whether individuals with serious mental illness are likely to hold the types of jobs that are in decline and to assess their ability to compete for the types of jobs that have been in increased demand. METHODS: Using data from the National Health Interview Survey and the Occupational Information Network database on occupational skills (N=387,240 person-year responses), this study explored changes in patterns of employment from 1997 to 2017 for people with mental illnesses. RESULTS: Individuals with any mental health condition experienced a 10.9 percentage point decline in employment in jobs requiring routine cognitive or any manual skills. Much of this decline was offset by an increase in employment in jobs involving nonroutine cognitive skills. However, individuals with serious psychological distress experienced a 7.9 percentage point decline in employment in jobs requiring routine cognitive or any manual skills, and about 75% of this decline coincided with reduced levels of employment rather than a shift toward employment in nonroutine cognitive jobs. These patterns were more striking among men. CONCLUSIONS: Likely directions for interventions include renewed efforts at workplace accommodations, greater investment in evidence-based return-to-work programs, and efforts to popularize early intervention programs.

Association Between Medicaid Expansion and the Use of Outpatient General Surgical Care Among US Adults in Multiple States.

Importance: The Affordable Care Act expanded access to Medicaid coverage in 2014 for individuals living in participating states. Whether expanded coverage was associated with increases in the use of outpatient surgical care, particularly among underserved populations, remains unknown. Objective: To evaluate the association between state participation in the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion reform and the use of outpatient surgical care. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case-control study used a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design to compare the use of outpatient surgical care at the facility and state levels by patient demographic characteristics and payer categories (Medicaid, private insurance, and no insurance). Data from 2013 (before Medicaid expansion reform) and 2015 (after Medicaid expansion reform) were obtained from the State Ambulatory Surgery and Services Database of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. The absolute and mean numbers of procedures performed at outpatient surgical centers in 2 states (Michigan and New York) that participated in Medicaid expansion (expansion states) were compared with those performed at outpatient surgical centers in 2 states (Florida and North Carolina) that did not participate in Medicaid expansion (nonexpansion states). The population-based sample included 207 176 patients aged 18 to 64 years who received 4 common outpatient procedures (laparoscopic cholecystectomy, breast lumpectomy, open inguinal hernia repair, and laparoscopic inguinal hernia repair). Data were analyzed from May 19 to August 25, 2019. Interventions: State variation in the adoption of Medicaid expansion before and after expansion reform was implemented through the Affordable Care Act. Main Outcomes and Measures: Changes in the mean number of procedures performed at the facility level before and after Medicaid expansion reform in states with and without expanded Medicaid coverage. Results: A total of 207 176 patients (106 395 women [51.35%] and 100 781 men [48.65%]; mean [SD] age, 45.7 [12.4] years) were included in the sample. Overall, 116 752 procedures were performed in Medicaid expansion states and 90 424 procedures in nonexpansion states. A 9.8% increase (95% CI, 0.4%-20.0%; P = .04) in cholecystectomies, a 26.1% increase (95% CI, 9.8%-44.7%; P = .001) in lumpectomies, and a 16.3% increase (95% CI, 2.9%-31.5%; P = .02) in laparoscopic inguinal hernia repairs were observed at the facility level in expansion states compared with nonexpansion states. Among patients with Medicaid coverage, the mean number of procedures performed in all 4 procedure categories increased between 60.5% (95% CI, 24.7%-106.6%; P < .001) and 79.2% (95% CI, 53.5%-109.2%; P < .001) at the facility level. The increases in the number of Medicaid patients who received treatment exceeded the reductions in the number of uninsured patients who received treatment with laparoscopic cholecystectomy, open inguinal hernia repair, and laparoscopic inguinal hernia repairs in expansion states compared with nonexpansion states. Black patients received more laparoscopic cholecystectomies, lumpectomies, and open inguinal hernia repairs in expansion states than in nonexpansion states. Conclusions and Relevance: Study results suggest that Medicaid expansion was associated with increases in the use of outpatient surgical care in states that participated in Medicaid expansion. Most of this increase represented patients who were newly treated rather than patients who converted from no insurance to Medicaid coverage.

Did The ACA Lower Americans' Financial Barriers To Health Care?

The Affordable Care Act was designed to provide financial protection to Americans in their use of the health care system. This required addressing two intertwined problems: cost barriers to accessing coverage and care, and barriers to comprehensive risk protection provided by insurance. We reviewed the evidence on whether the law was effective in achieving these goals. We found that the Affordable Care Act generated substantial, widespread improvements in protecting Americans against the financial risks of illness. The coverage expansions reduced uninsurance rates, especially relative to earlier forecasts; improved access to care; and lowered out-of-pocket spending. The insurance market reforms also made it easier for people to get and stay enrolled in coverage and ensured that those who were insured had true financial risk protection. But subsequent court decisions and congressional and executive branch actions have left millions uninsured and allowed the risk of inadequate insurance to resurface.

Gentrification And The Health Of Low-Income Children In New York City.

Although the pace of gentrification has accelerated in cities across the US, little is known about the health consequences of growing up in gentrifying neighborhoods. We used New York State Medicaid claims data to track a cohort of low-income children born in the period 2006-08 for the nine years between January 2009 and December 2017. We compared the 2017 health outcomes of children who started out in low-income neighborhoods that gentrified in the period 2009-15 with those of children who started out in other low-income neighborhoods, controlling for individual child demographic characteristics, baseline neighborhood characteristics, and preexisting trends in neighborhood socioeconomic status. Our findings suggest that the experience of gentrification has no effects on children's health system use or diagnoses of asthma or obesity, when children are assessed at ages 9-11, but that it is associated with moderate increases in diagnoses of anxiety or depression-which are concentrated among children living in market-rate housing.

The Congenital Heart Technical Skill Study: Rationale and Design.

BACKGROUND: We report the rationale and design for a peer-evaluation protocol of attending congenital heart surgeon technical skill using direct video observation. METHODS: All surgeons contributing data to The Society of Thoracic Surgeons-Congenital Heart Surgery Database (STS-CHSD) are invited to submit videos of themselves operating, to rate peers, or both. Surgeons may submit Norwood procedures, complete atrioventricular canal repairs, and/or arterial switch operations. A HIPPA-compliant website allows secure transmission/evaluation. Videos are anonymously rated using a modified Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills score. Ratings are linked to five years of contemporaneous outcome data from the STS-CHSD and surgeon questionnaires. The primary outcome is a composite for major morbidity/mortality. RESULTS: Two hundred seventy-six surgeons from 113 centers are eligible for participation: 83 (30%) surgeons from 53 (45%) centers have agreed to participate, with recruitment ongoing. These surgeons vary considerably in years of experience and outcomes. Participants, both early and late in their careers, describe the process as "very rewarding" and "less time consuming than anticipated." An initial subset of 10 videos demonstrated excellent interrater reliability (interclass correlation = 0.85). CONCLUSIONS: This study proposes to evaluate the technical skills of attending pediatric cardiothoracic surgeons by video observation and peer-review. It is notable that over a quarter of congenital heart surgeons, across a range of experiences, from almost half of United States centers have already agreed to participate. This study also creates a mechanism for peer feedback; we hypothesize that feedback could yield broad and meaningful quality improvement.

Who Entered and Exited the Individual Health Insurance Market Before and After the Affordable Care Act? Evidence from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.

Issue: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) made it easier for older adults and those with medical conditions to enroll in individual-market coverage by eliminating risk rating and limiting age rating. While the ACA also encourages young and healthy people to enroll through subsidies and the individual mandate, it's not clear whether these incentives have been sufficient to prevent the risk pool from becoming disproportionately old and sick. Goal: To assess whether patterns in individual-market participation changed following ACA implementation. Methods: Comparison of Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data for the periods 2003­09 and 2014­15. Findings and Conclusion: The analysis found few differences in individual-insurance market participation before and after the ACA. Adverse selection occurred during both: people switching into individual insurance coverage after being uninsured were higher utilizers prior to the switch than were those who remained uninsured. Those who disenrolled from individual plans tended to be lower utilizers of care before switching compared with those who kept their coverage. The main difference was that more people--especially young adults--switched from Medicaid to individual insurance, and vice versa, after the ACA. Adverse enrollment or disenrollment in the individual market did not increase following ACA implementation. The combination of easing rating rules and encouraging participation appears to have maintained market stability.

How Democratic Candidates For The Presidency In 2020 Could Choose Among Public Health Insurance Plans.

Democratic candidates for president in 2020 will likely include some type of public plan in their health care reform platforms. Existing public plans take many forms and often incorporate private elements, as do most proposals to extend such plans. We review the types of public plans in the current system. We describe and assess the range of proposals to extend these plans or elements of them to additional populations. We suggest questions that candidates could use to guide their decisions about the scope and content of their health policy proposals. Developmental work during campaigns will contribute to success in turning candidates' promises into accomplishments.

How Would Americans' Out-of-Pocket Costs Change If Insurance Plans Were Allowed to Exclude Coverage for Preexisting Conditions?

Issue: A current Republican legislative proposal would permit insurers to offer plans that exclude coverage of treatment for preexisting health conditions, even while the bill would maintain the Affordable Care Act's rule prohibiting denial of coverage to people with a preexisting condition. Goal: Estimate patients' out-of-pocket costs for five common preexisting conditions if the bill were to become law and assess any additional impact on out-of-pocket expenditures if spending on care for preexisting conditions no longer counted against plan deductibles. Methods: Analysis of 2014­2016 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data for the privately insured adult population under age 65; and the proposed Ensuring Coverage for Patients with Pre-Existing Conditions Act (S. 3388). Findings and Conclusion: If preexisting conditions were excluded from coverage, nearly all people with these conditions would see increased out-of-pocket costs. Average out-of-pocket costs for those with cancer or diabetes would triple, while costs for arthritis, asthma, and hypertension care would rise by 27 percent to 39 percent. Some individuals would see much larger increases: for example, 10 percent of diabetes patients could expect to incur over $9,200 annually in out-of-pocket costs. Many with preexisting conditions also would spend more on conditions that are not excluded, since out-of-pocket spending on their preexisting conditions would no longer count toward the deductible and out-of-pocket maximum.