Spatial Survival Model for COVID-19 in México.

A spatial survival analysis was performed to identify some of the factors that influence the survival of patients with COVID-19 in the states of Guerrero, México, and Chihuahua. The data that we analyzed correspond to the period from 28 February 2020 to 24 November 2021. A Cox proportional hazards frailty model and a Cox proportional hazards model were fitted. For both models, the estimation of the parameters was carried out using the Bayesian approach. According to the DIC, WAIC, and LPML criteria, the spatial model was better. The analysis showed that the spatial effect influences the survival times of patients with COVID-19. The spatial survival analysis also revealed that age, gender, and the presence of comorbidities, which vary between states, and the development of pneumonia increase the risk of death from COVID-19.

Bayesian analysis of the effect of exosomes in a mouse xenograft model of chronic myeloid leukemia.

The aim of this work is to estimate the effect of Imatinib, exosomes, and Imatinib-exosomes mixture in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). For this purpose, mathematical models based on Gompertzian and logistic growth differential equations were proposed. The models contained parameters representing the effects of the three components on CML proliferation. Parameters estimation was performed under the Bayesian statistical approach. Experimental data reported in the literature were used, corresponding to four trials of a human leukemia xenograft in BALB/c female rats over a period of forty days. The models were fitted to the following growth dynamics: normal tumor growth, growth with exosomes, growth with Imatinib, and growth with exosomes-Imatinib mixture. For the proposed logistic growth model, it was determined that when using Imatinib treatment the growth rate is 0.93 (95% CrI: 84.33-99.64) slower and reduces the tumor volume to approximately 10% (95% CrI : 8.67-10.81). In the presence of exosome treatment, the growth rate is 0.83 (95% CrI: 1.52-16.59) faster and the tumor volume is expanded by 40% (95% CrI: 25.36-57.28). Finally, in the presence of Imatinib-exosomes mixture treatment, the growth rate is 0.82 (95% CrI: 76.87-88.51) slower and the tumor volume is reduced by 95% (95% CrI: 86.76-99.85). It is concluded that the presence of exosomes partially inactivates the effect of the Imatinib drug on tumor growth in a mouse xenograft model.

Bayesian estimation of parameters in viral dynamics models with antiviral effect of interferons in a cell culture.

The goal of this work is to estimate the efficacy of interferon therapy in the inhibition of infection by the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in a cell culture. For this purpose, three viral dynamics models with the antiviral effect of interferons are presented; the dynamics of cell growth differ among the models, and a variant with Gompertz-type cell dynamics is proposed. A Bayesian statistics approach is used to estimate the cell dynamics parameters, viral dynamics and interferon efficacy. The models are fitted to sets of experimental data on cell growth, HIV-1 infection without interferon therapy and HIV-1 infection with interferon therapy, respectively. The Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used to determine the model that best fits the experimental data. In addition to the estimated model parameters, the average lifespan of the infected cells and the basic reproductive number are calculated.

Derivation and validation of sex-specific continuous metabolic syndrome scores for the Mexican adult population.

Traditionally the diagnosis of Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is binary (present/absent). The goal of this work is to propose a sex-specific continuous score to measure the severity of MetS in Mexican adults using waist circumference and body mass index as adiposity measures. MetSx-WC and MetSx-BMI indexes by sex were derived by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) using data for 6567 adult participants of the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2018. The overall fit of the two proposed CFA models was excellent. We then validated these scores using a community-based health study of 862 university participants and determined that the reliability and strength of agreement between the MetSx-WC and MetSx-BMI scores were excellent. The ROC analysis of the resulting indexes indicates that they have excellent ability to discriminate a MetS classification according to the different criteria. The correlations of MetSx scores and surrogate markers of insulin resistance and obesity ranged from weak to strong. Subsequently, a retrospective study of 310 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 was used to determined that MetSx-BMI score was associated with the mortality of patients with COVID-19. The proposed indices provide a continuous measure in the identification of MetS risk in Mexican adults.

Estrés cotidiano en trabajadores del volante / Workers daily stress in the wheel

El objetivo del presente trabajo fue conocer el nivel de estrés y los factores asociados al hiperestrés, en trabajadores del volante de la ciudad de Chilpancingo, Guerrero. Se realizó un estudio de tipo transversal en una población de 191 choferes de 19 a 74 años de edad, en la ciudad de Chilpancingo, Guerrero. El muestreo fue por conveniencia y se realizó durante los meses de septiembre de 2009 a enero de 2010. La medición del estrés se hizo mediante la aplicación de un estresómetro que contiene preguntas relacionadas con el estilo de vida, ambiente, síntomas, empleo u ocupación, relaciones y personalidad. Posteriormente se entregó el diagnostico de estrés a cada participante, así como las recomendaciones de acuerdo al diagnóstico obtenido. La edad promedio de los 191 choferes fue de 35.51+/- 11.04 años. En relación al estado civil el 10.99 por ciento son solteros, 68.06 por ciento casados, 5.24 por ciento divorciados, 15.18 por ciento viven en unión libre y el 0.52 por ciento son viudos. La prevalencia de hiperestrés, definido como estrés peligroso o elevado, fue de 26.7 por ciento. Los factores asociados al hiperestrés fueron: comer de prisa, tener la casa sucia y desordenada, aire contaminado en la zona donde se vive, sufrir taquicardia, sentir tensión por el trabajo, sentir el día largo en el trabajo, afectarse por las disputas, ponerse nervioso si los interrumpen cuando trabaja, ponerse nervioso cuando hay mucho tráfico, padecer insomnio, sudar mucho sin hacer ejercicio y llevarse mal con el jefe.

The aim of this study was to determine the level of stress and related factors in professional drivers of Chilpancingo, Guerrero. A cross-sectional study was conducted in a population of 191 drivers aged 19 to 74 years old. It was carried out a purposive sampling from September 2009 to January 2010. The stress measurement was obtained by applying a estresometer containing questions related to lifestyle, environmental factors, stress symptoms, employment or occupation, relationships and personality. The diagnosis of stress and recommendations according to the diagnosis obtained were given to each participant. The average age of the 191 drivers was 35.51 +/- 4.11 years. In terms of marital status: 10.99 percent were single, 68.06 percent married, 5.24 percent divorced, 15.18 percent cohabiting and 0.52 percent widowed. Hyperstress, defined as having dangerous or high stress levels, had a prevalence of 26.7 percent. Factors associated with hyperstress were eating in a hurry, having the house dirty and messy, polluted air in the area where they live, suffering tachycardia, feeling tightness for work, feeling the long day at work, being affected by disputes, being nervous if interrupted while working, getting nervous when traffic is heavy, suffering insomnia, sweating a lot without exercise and not getting along with the boss.

Factores estresantes asociados al hiperestrés en estudiantes universitarios de la ciudad de Chilpancingo, Guerrero, México / Stressors associated with hiperstress in undergraduate students in the city of Chilpancingo, Guerrero, Mexico

El objetivo fue conocer el nivel de estrés y los factores asociados en estudiantes de licenciatura de las diferentes Unidades Académicas de la Ciudad Universitaria de Chilpancingo, Guerrero, México. Corresponde a un estudio de tipo transversal, realizado en una muestra de 500 estudiantes de 17 a 44 años, la edad promedio fue de 21.29 +/- 3.13 años. La selección de estudiantes fue al azar. La medición del nivel de estrés se realizó con un estresómetro que contiene 96 preguntas relacionadas con el estilo de vida, ambiente, síntomas, empleo/ocupación, relaciones y personalidad. La prevalencia de hiperestrés fue de 44.4 por ciento. Las Unidades Académicas con mayor prevalencia de estrés fueron Ciencias Químicas (56 por ciento) y Filosofía y Letras (52.54 por ciento). Las mujeres tienen mayor prevalencia en estrés que los hombres. Se encontraron 17 factores asociados al hiperestrés, entre los que se encuentran: no hacer ejercicio, consumo de alcohol y sentirse cansado y sin energías, entre otros.

The objective was to determine the level of stress and associated factors in undergraduates students from all the Academic Units located in the University City in Chilpancingo, Gro. A cross-sectional study was conducted in a random sample of 500 students with ages ranging from 17-44 years, the average age was 21.29 +/- 3.13 years. Stress levels were measured with an estresometer containing 96 questions related to lifestyle, environment, symptoms, employment/occupation, relationships and personality. The prevalence of hiperestrés was 44.4 percent. The Academic Units with more prevalence of stress were Chemistry Sciences (56 percent) and Philosophy and Literature (52.54 percent). The women have more stress that the men. We found 17 factors associated with hiperstress, among which are: no exercise, alcohol consumption, feeling tired and without energy, among others.