Differential game analysis of joint emission reduction decisions under mixed carbon policies and CEA.

To understand joint emission reduction (JER) of upstream and downstream firms under a low-carbon operational environment, this study incorporates green technology, remanufacturing, low-carbon promotion, consumer environmental awareness (CEA), and mixed carbon policies (carbon tax + cap-and-trade) into a dynamic framework to investigate JER decisions of the upstream manufacturer and the downstream retailer. Applying the differential game theory, we consider low-carbon goodwill as the state variable and explore members' optimal decisions in four cases, namely, idealized case, noncooperative case, unilateral cost-sharing contract (UCSC) case, and bilateral cost-sharing contract (BCSC) case. Our results show that the noncooperative case leads to a loss of efficiency in joint emission reduction. Although the BCSC is more advantageous than the UCSC in improving the efficiency of JER, a profit redistribution mechanism needs to be included, and the profit distribution ratio should be controlled within a certain interval. Only in this situation do both parties prefer the BCSC. Additionally, the impact of mixed carbon policies and CEA on JER decisions, low-carbon goodwill, profits, and coordination are fully discussed, and it is found that in the face of stricter mixed carbon policies, the downstream retailer plays a moderating role only in cooperative cases. Several practical implications are concluded for JER, contract design, CEA, and carbon policies. Governments and firms can benefit from our research by gaining a deeper understanding of JER.

Forecasting the carbon emissions in Hubei Province under the background of carbon neutrality: a novel STIRPAT extended model with ridge regression and scenario analysis.

The impact of global greenhouse gas emissions is increasingly serious, and the development of green low-carbon circular economy has become an inevitable trend for the development of all countries in the world. To achieve emission peak and carbon neutrality is the primary goal of energy conservation and emission reduction. As the core province in central China, Hubei Province is under prominent pressure of carbon emission reduction. In this paper, the future development trend of carbon emissions is analyzed, and the emission peak value and carbon peak time in Hubei Province is predicted. Firstly, the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) model is proposed to determine the main influencing factors of carbon emissions in Hubei Province. Secondly, based on the main influencing factors identified, a novel STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) extended model with ridge regression is established to predict carbon emissions. Thirdly, the scenario analysis method is used to set the variables of the STIRPAT extended model and to predict the emission peak value and carbon peak time in Hubei Province. The results show that Hubei Province's carbon emissions peaked first in 2025, with a peak value of 361.81 million tons. Finally, according to the prediction results, the corresponding suggestions on carbon emission reduction are provided in three aspects of industrial structure, energy structure, and urbanization, so as to help government establish a green, low-carbon, and circular development economic system and achieve the industry's cleaner production and sustainable development of society.

Performance evaluation of regulatory schemes for retired electric vehicle battery recycling within dual-recycle channels.

As electric vehicles (EVs) are developing at a rapid pace, the foreseeable "scrap tide" of EV batteries poses a severe challenge to ecological protection. This article investigates a dual-recycle channel closed-loop supply chain and provides regulatory solutions to retired EV batteries' recycling. Specifically, we construct four supervision scenarios: S1 no policy intervention, S2 reward-penalty scheme, S3 deposit-refund scheme, and S4 dual scheme combining S2 and S3. Based on the Stackelberg game and empirical data, all scenarios' recycling performance is evaluated and compared with a view to "society, economy, and environment". The results revealed: (1) Compared with S1, the recycling rate and carbon reduction rate in S2∼S4 increase by 2.6049%/0.0092%, 4.0379%/0.0285%, and 6.6660%/0.0379%, respectively; (2) The difference between S2 and S3 in recycling performance depends on regulatory intensities, yet the latter places greater burdens on consumers and firms. The S4 presents optimal environmental performance but at the expense of socioeconomic development; (3) As regulatory intensity increases, social welfare rises driven by environmental benefits, then falls due to overburdened supply chain profits, consumer surplus, and policy expenditures; (4) Carbon trading prices and EVs' potential market sizes affect regulatory schemes' operations. Our results contribute to policy-making and managerial practices for EV battery recycling.

Green financing strategies in a low-carbon e-commerce supply chain under service quality regulation.

Green financing is an effective means to encourage small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to improve environmental efficiency in their operations. This paper studies two financing strategies of a carbon-dependent manufacturer in an e-commerce supply chain, which are called bank credit and cost-sharing with third-party platform that provides a marketplace. The optimal carbon emission reduction (CER) level, selling price, and service level are investigated. It turns out that the participants' profits and environmental benefit under two financing strategies are higher than those without financing. In addition, when the commission provided by the platform is low, the manufacturer is more inclined to bank credit, and when the commission is high, it is more sensible to share CER cost with the platform. The impact of government service supervision policies on corporate decision-making is further explored. The results prove that setting an appropriate service threshold and reward-penalty factor is not only conducive to incentivizing the platform to improve service level but also beneficial to the environment and overall social welfare. This paper provides cooperation strategies for manufacturers in green financing in the e-commerce supply chain and provides policy recommendations for the government to implement e-commerce service regulation and promote CER.

Do paediatric early warning systems reduce mortality and critical deterioration events among children? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Aim: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to answer the question: Does the implementation of Paediatric Early Warning Systems (PEWS) in the hospital setting reduce mortality, cardiopulmonary arrests, unplanned codes and critical deterioration events among children, as compared to usual care without PEWS? Methods: We conducted a comprehensive search using Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and Web of Science. We included studies published between January 2006 and April 2022 on children <18 years old performed in inpatient units and emergency departments, and compared patient populations with PEWS to those without PEWS. We excluded studies without a comparator, case control studies, systematic reviews, and studies published in non-English languages. We employed a random effects meta-analysis and synthesised the risk and rate ratios from individual studies. We used the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) to appraise the risk of bias. Results: Among 911 articles screened, 15 were included for descriptive analysis. Fourteen of the 15 studies were pre- versus post-implementation studies and one was a multi-centre cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT). Among 10 studies (580,604 hospital admissions) analysed for mortality, we found an increased risk (pooled RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.01-1.38, p = 0.036) in the group without PEWS compared to the group with PEWS. The sensitivity analysis performed without the RCT (436,065 hospital admissions) showed a non-significant relationship (pooled RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.98-1.40, p = 0.087). Among four studies (168,544 hospital admissions) analysed for unplanned code events, there was an increased risk in the group without PEWS (pooled RR 1.73, 95%CI 1.01-2.96, p = 0.046) There were no differences in the rate of cardiopulmonary arrests or critical deterioration events between groups. Our findings were limited by potential confounders and imprecision among included studies. Conclusions: Healthcare systems that implemented PEWS were associated with reduced mortality and code rates. We recognise that these gains vary depending on resource availability and efferent response systems.PROSPERO registration: CRD42021269579.

COVID-19 lockdowns and air quality: Evidence from grey spatiotemporal forecasts.

This paper proposes a novel grey spatiotemporal model and quantitatively analyzes the spillover and momentum effects of the COVID-19 lockdown policy on the concentration of PM2.5 (particulate matter of diameter less than 2.5 µm) in Wuhan during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown from 23 January to 8 April 2020 inclusive, and the post-pandemic period from 9 April 2020 to 17 October 2020 inclusive. The results suggest that the stringent lockdowns lead to a reduction in PM2.5 emissions arising from a momentum effect (9.57-18.67%) and a spillover effect (7.07-27.60%).

Generalized fractional grey system models: The memory effects perspective.

In recent years, grey models based on fractional-order accumulation and/or derivatives have attracted considerable research interest because they offer better performance in handling limited samples with uncertainty than integer-order grey models; however, there remains room for improvement. This paper considers a more flexible and general structure for the fractional grey model by incorporating a generalized fractional-order derivative (GFOD) that complies by memory effects, resulting in the development of a generalized fractional grey model (denoted as GFGM(1,1)). Specifically, we comprehensively analyse the modelling mechanism of the proposed GFGM(1,1) model, involving model parameter estimation and time response function derivation, and discuss the link between the proposed approach and existing special cases. Then, to further improve the efficacy of the proposed approach, four mainstream metaheuristic algorithms are employed to ascertain the orders of fractional accumulation and derivatives. Finally, we carry out a series of simulation studies and a real-world application case to demonstrate the applicability and advantage of the our approach. The numerical results show that GFGM(1,1) outperforms other benchmarks, and some significant insights are obtained from the numerical experiments.

Vulnerability of the worldwide air transportation network to global catastrophes such as COVID-19.

This paper studies the vulnerability of the worldwide air transportation network (WATN) during a global catastrophe such as COVID-19. Considering the WATN as a weighted network, many airport connections could be completely or partially disrupted during such extreme events. However, it is found that existing weighted metrics cannot reflect the impact of connection capacity reduction on network connectivity. Therein, this work proposes a novel network efficiency metric termed as layered weighted network efficiency (LWNE) metric to measure the connectivity of the air transportation networks (ATNs) and study their vulnerability in response to different levels of disruptions, including airport level, country level, and global level. The most critical airport connections and their impact on network connectivity are identified. It is found that the critical connections are mostly between so-called bridge airports but not core airports in the WATN. By examining the impact of partial link disruptions, it is found that some connections mainly serve local travel demand and are very robust to partial disruptions, while the others connecting global hubs are sensitive to partial disruptions. Further, the WATN is robust to the individual disconnection of most countries; however, it is vulnerable to the simultaneous disconnection of countries that serve international transfers. Interestingly, the WATN is insensitive to the disconnection between any two countries, even those with sizeable domestic ATNs. Concerning global disconnections, as long as all the international connections hold 10% of their original flights, the WATN can still expect 40% of its pre-disruption performance. This paper deepens the understanding of ATNs under extreme events and provides a method for studying transportation networks' vulnerability facing global disruptions.

Interval-valued hesitant fuzzy TODIM method for dynamic emergency responses.

Emergency responses bear the characteristics of uncertainty and possess multi-attributes in decision making. This paper applies the interval evidential reasoning approach and the interval-valued hesitant fuzzy TODIM (IVHF-TODIM) method to tackle the dynamic emergency decision-making problem. We introduce a function to obtain the gain and loss degrees through the geometric area method. The gain and loss matrices of the interval belief degrees are found probabilistically. A new approach to obtaining the dominance degree matrix is proposed. From the IVHF-TODIM method, the overall dominance degree is established to provide the ranking of the decision alternatives. A recent case of selecting an emergency decision alternative for a large bushfire is used to validate the proposed method, followed by a comparative analysis.

The Impact of Traumatic Brain Injury on Neurocognitive Outcomes in Children: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the burden of paediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) on neurocognition via a systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: Studies that compared neurocognitive outcomes of paediatric patients with TBI and controls were searched using Medline, Embase, PsycINFO and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, between January 1988 and August 2019. We presented a random-effects model, stratified by TBI severity, time of assessment post injury and age. RESULTS: Of 5919 studies, 41 (patients=3717) and 33 (patients=3118) studies were included for the systematic review and meta-analysis, respectively. Studies mostly measured mild TBI (n=26, patients=2888) at 0-3 months postinjury (n=17, patients=2502). At 0-3 months postinjury, standardised mean differences between TBI and controls for executive function were -0.04 (95% CI -0.14 to 0.07; I2=0.00%), -0.18 (95% CI -0.29 to -0.06; I2=26.1%) and -0.95 (95% CI -1.12 to -0.77; I2=10.1%) for mild, moderate and severe TBI, respectively; a similar effect was demonstrated for learning and memory. Severe TBI had the worst outcomes across all domains and persisted >24 months postinjury. Commonly used domains differed largely from workgroup recommendations. Risk of bias was acceptable for all included studies. CONCLUSION: A dose-dependent relationship between TBI severity and neurocognitive outcomes was evident in executive function and in learning and memory. Cognitive deficits were present for TBIs of all severity but persisted among children with severe TBI. The heterogeneity of neurocognitive scales makes direct comparison between studies difficult. Future research into lesser explored domains and a more detailed assessment of neurocognitive deficits in young children are required to better understand the true burden of paediatric TBI.

Reuse assessment of WEEE: Systematic review of emerging themes and research directions.

The reuse of Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) is deemed the best end-of-life option in terms of the environmental impact and socio-economic benefits. Taking this cue, this paper applies a systematic literature review to map the existing knowledge base to present the major and emerging themes of the reuse assessment of WEEE. In all, 12,216 articles published from 2005 to 2019 in the Web of Science, ProQuest, and Google Scholar are collected, from which 331 articles are shortlisted for review. The shortlisted articles are divided into two sub-periods 2005-2014 and 2015-2019 to draw out the development of the research themes and the contribution of the recent research articles to the literature on WEEE reuse assessment. Bibliographic coupling combined with keyword analysis is performed using SciMat and VOSViewer. The results inform that the major ongoing themes are Consumer behaviour towards use, disposal, collection, reuse, repair and recycling of WEEE; Assessing the potential of WEEE for reuse; Product recovery strategy and market analysis for WEEE remanufacturing; and Material flow analysis of WEEE in circular economy. The research themes of Informal WEEE management in developing countries; Impact of government subsidy on WEEE management; and Product service system and circular economy deserve further attention. In the articles reviewed, mobile phones and computers are extensively studied for WEEE reuse assessment followed by refrigerators and televisions. Assessing the environmental impact and legal aspects of WEEE reuse, cross-border movements and flow in secondary markets, policies and regulations on the purchase of reprocessed WEEE, and the reprocessing and revenue made by the informal sector in developing countries are possibilities for future research.

An extended TODIM approach for group emergency decision making based on bidirectional projection with hesitant triangular fuzzy sets.

With the recent Covid-19 outbreak, group emergency decision-making (GEDM), as a new management model to pursue both social stability and decrease the negative impact of emergencies, has become highly popular. Evaluating and choosing the best emergency response is the core of the GEDM and selecting the choices can be regarded as a multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problem. Due to the increasing complexity and fuzziness of emergency decision-making environment, decision-makers (DMs) often cannot express completely rational preference information in many real EDM situations. At the same time, the existing methods seldom consider the DM's psychological mindset at the point of decision making. In this paper, an extended TODIM (an acronym for interactive and multi-criteria decision-making in Portugese) method based on bidirectional projection is proposed to solve the GEDM problem in the context of hesitant triangular fuzzy sets (HTFSs) and the novel method is applied to a case study and compared with other existing methods. The validity and applicability of the proposed method are discussed.

Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of long-term neurocognitive outcomes in paediatric traumatic brain injury.

INTRODUCTION: Children who suffer from traumatic brain injury (TBI) are at risk of permanent brain damage and developmental deficits. Reports on neurodevelopmental outcomes in paediatric TBI suffer from small sample size and varying outcome definitions in the neurocognitive domains tested. This protocol describes a systematic review and meta-analysis of paediatric TBI in the following key neurocognitive domains: executive function, perceptual-motor function, language, learning and memory, social cognition and complex attention. METHODS: A comprehensive search comprising studies from Medline, Cochrane, Embase and PsycINFO published from 1988 to 2019 will be conducted. We will include studies on children ≤18 years old who suffer from mild, moderate and severe TBI as determined by the Glasgow Coma Scale that report neurocognitive outcomes in domains predetermined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders fifth edition criteria. Systematic reviews, meta-analyses, randomised controlled trials, case-control, cohort and cross-sectional studies will be included. References from systematic reviews and meta-analyses will be hand-searched for relevant articles. A meta-analysis will be performed and effect sizes will be calculated to summarise the magnitude of change in each neurocognitive domain compared at different timepoints and stratified by severity of TBI. Included studies will be pooled using pooled standardised mean differences with a random effects model to determine an overall effect. In the scenario that we are unable to pool the studies, we will perform a narrative analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval is not required for this study.The authors of this study will publish and present the findings in a peer-reviewed journal as well as national and international conferences. The results of this study will provide understanding into the association between different severities of paediatric TBI and long-term neurocognitive outcomes. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020152680.

Acute, unanticipated, and prolonged superior vena cava occlusion during pneumonectomy.

Acute, unanticipated superior vena cava (SVC) occlusion during thoracic surgery can have profound hemodynamic consequences and lead to devastating neurologic injury. We describe the successful anesthetic management of a pneumonectomy complicated by prolonged intraoperative SVC occlusion lasting a total of 290 minutes. To our knowledge, this represents the longest reported SVC occlusion time with no subsequent neurologic sequelae. Based on our favorable outcome and a review of the relevant literature, we offer a discussion of strategies for anesthetic management.

The Robust Weighted Multi-Objective Game.

This paper studies a class of multi-objective n-person non-zero sum games through a robust weighted approach where each player has more than one competing objective. This robust weighted multi-objective game model assumes that each player attaches a set of weights to its objectives instead of accessing accurate weights. Each player wishes to minimize its maximum weighted sum objective where the maximization is pointing to the set of weights. To address this new model, a new equilibrium concept-robust weighted Nash equilibrium is obtained. The existence of this new concept is proven on suitable assumptions about the multi-objective payoffs.

Sex differences in age-related motor slowing in the rhesus monkey: behavioral and neuroimaging data.

The nigrostriatal system is critical for fine motor function and its deterioration during aging is thought to underlie the decline in fine manual ability of old persons. Because estrogen has a neuroprotective effect on this system, one might expect women's motor function to be less vulnerable to the detrimental effects of aging than that of men. We examined this hypothesis in the rhesus monkey, which has been established as an excellent model of human age-related motor impairment. We tested 28 young and old rhesus monkeys of both sexes in a task involving the retrieval of a Life Saver candy from rods of different complexity to determine whether fine motor ability (1) is sexually dimorphic, (2) declines with age and (3) declines differently in males and females. In addition, we measured the whole brain volume, the volumes of the caudate, putamen, hippocampal formation and the area of the corpus callosum in a subset of the monkeys (n=15) for which magnetic resonance images of the brain were available. All monkeys performed similarly in the test with the simplest rod. In the test with complex rods; however, age-related slowing of motor function was evident in males, but not in females. Age-related decreases in the normalized caudate and putamen volumes were similar in males and in females. In addition, motor speed was not significantly correlated to any of the neuroanatomical measures under study. Further studies will be necessary to uncover the neurohormonal bases of the differential age-related motor decline between males and females.

Why a sawtooth? Inferences on the generation of the flutter wave during typical atrial flutter drawn from radiofrequency ablation.

BACKGROUND: Typical atrial flutter (AFL) is a macroreentrant arrhythmia characterized by a counterclockwise circuit that passes through the cavotricuspid isthmus with passive depolarization of the left atrium. These electrical events are thought to be responsible for the classic "sawtooth" wave of atrial flutter seen on the surface electrocardiogram characterized by a gradual downward deflection followed by a sharp negative deflection. It has been suggested that the negative flutter wave is a result of passive depolarization of the left atrium. We hypothesized that interruption of the circuit within the isthmus would prevent the reentrant wave from depolarizing the left atrium thus eliminating the component of the electrocardiogram reflecting left atrial depolarization. METHODS: We examined 100 cases of atrial flutter with the typical "sawtooth" pattern referred for radiofrequency ablation. Ninety-seven of the 100 were successfully ablated. All cases were reviewed for termination of atrial flutter with the last intracardiac electrogram just lateral to the site of linear ablation and surface flutter wave at the moment of termination not obscured by the QRS segment or the T-wave. Seventeen of the 97 met these criteria. RESULTS: Seventeen of the 17 cases demonstrated a gradual negative deflection as the last discernible wave of atrial activity followed by an isoelectric period and resumption of normal sinus rhythm. The last generated wave lacked the sharp negative downstroke. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that the sharp negative deflection of flutter waves likely correlates with the wavefront's penetration of the interatrial septum and passive depolarization of the left atrium.