A comparative study assessing the incidence and degree of hyperkalemia in patients on angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors versus angiotensin-receptor blockers.

OVERVIEW: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) and angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARB) are the most commonly prescribed anti-hypertensive medications in the United States, yet whether ACEI or ARB use is associated with a greater risk of hyperkalemia remains uncertain. Using real-world evidence from electronic health records, our study demonstrates that treatment with ACEI is associated with both a higher incidence and greater degree of hyperkalemia than treatment with ARB in adjusted models, especially in patients with chronic kidney disease. Providers should therefore consider this possible difference in hyperkalemia risk when choosing between ACEI and ARB therapy.

A randomized trial examining the effect of predictive analytics and tailored interventions on the cost of care.

This two-arm randomized controlled trial evaluated the impact of a Stepped-Care intervention (predictive analytics combined with tailored interventions) on the healthcare costs of older adults using a Personal Emergency Response System (PERS). A total of 370 patients aged 65 and over with healthcare costs in the middle segment of the cost pyramid for the fiscal year prior to their enrollment were enrolled for the study. During a 180-day intervention period, control group (CG) received standard care, while intervention group (IG) received the Stepped-Care intervention. The IG had 31% lower annualized inpatient cost per patient compared with the CG (3.7 K, $8.1 K vs. $11.8 K, p = 0.02). Both groups had similar annualized outpatient costs per patient ($6.1 K vs. $5.8 K, p = 0.10). The annualized total cost reduction per patient in the IG vs. CG was 20% (3.5 K, $17.7 K vs. $14.2 K, p = 0.04). Predictive analytics coupled with tailored interventions has great potential to reduce healthcare costs in older adults, thereby supporting population health management in home or community settings.

Predictive analytics and tailored interventions improve clinical outcomes in older adults: a randomized controlled trial.

This study explored the potential to improve clinical outcomes in patients at risk of moving to the top segment of the cost acuity pyramid. This randomized controlled trial evaluated the impact of a Stepped-Care approach (predictive analytics + tailored nurse-driven interventions) on healthcare utilization among 370 older adult patients enrolled in a homecare management program and using a Personal Emergency Response System. The Control group (CG) received care as usual, while the Intervention group (IG) received Stepped-Care during a 180-day intervention period. The primary outcome, decrease in emergency encounters, was not statistically significant (15%, p = 0.291). However, compared to the CG, the IG had significant reductions in total 90-day readmissions (68%, p = 0.007), patients with 90-day readmissions (76%, p = 0.011), total 180-day readmissions (53%, p = 0.020), and EMS encounters (49%, p = 0.006). Predictive analytics combined with tailored interventions could potentially improve clinical outcomes in older adults, supporting population health management in home or community settings.

Factors Influencing Exercise Engagement When Using Activity Trackers: Nonrandomized Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: It is well reported that tracking physical activity can lead to sustained exercise routines, which can decrease disease risk. However, most stop using trackers within a couple months of initial use. The reasons people stop using activity trackers can be varied and personal. Understanding the reasons for discontinued use could lead to greater acceptance of tracking and more regular exercise engagement. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the individualistic reasons for nonengagement with activity trackers. METHODS: Overweight and obese participants (n=30) were enrolled and allowed to choose an activity tracker of their choice to use for 9 weeks. Questionnaires were administered at the beginning and end of the study to collect data on their technology use, as well as social, physiological, and psychological attributes that may influence tracker use. Closeout interviews were also conducted to further identify individual influencers and attributes. In addition, daily steps were collected from the activity tracker. RESULTS: The results of the study indicate that participants typically valued the knowledge of their activity level the activity tracker provided, but it was not a sufficient motivator to overcome personal barriers to maintain or increase exercise engagement. Participants identified as extrinsically motivated were more influenced by wearing an activity tracker than those who were intrinsically motivated. During the study, participants who reported either owning multiple technology devices or knowing someone who used multiple devices were more likely to remain engaged with their activity tracker. CONCLUSIONS: This study lays the foundation for developing a smart app that could promote individual engagement with activity trackers.

Accuracy of self-reported history of autoimmune disease: A pilot study.

Research associating the increased prevalence of familial autoimmunity with neuropsychiatric disorders is reliant upon the ascertainment of history of autoimmune diseases from relatives. To characterize the accuracy of self-report, we compared self-reported diagnoses of 18 autoimmune diseases using an online self-report questionnaire to the electronic medical record (EMR) diagnoses in 1,013 adult (age 18-70 years) patients of a primary care clinic. For the 11 diseases meeting our threshold observed prevalence, we estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for self-reported diagnoses under the assumption that EMR-based diagnoses were accurate. Six diseases out of 11 had either sensitivity or PPV below 50%, with the lowest PPV for dermatological and endocrinological diseases. Common errors included incorrectly self-reporting type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), when type 1 DM was indicated by the EMR, and reporting rheumatoid arthritis when osteoarthritis was indicated by the EMR. Results suggest that ascertainment of familial autoimmunity through self-report contributes to inconsistencies and inaccuracies in studies of autoimmune disease history and that future studies would benefit from incorporating EMR review and biological measures.

Predictive Modeling of 30-Day Emergency Hospital Transport of Patients Using a Personal Emergency Response System: Prognostic Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Telehealth programs have been successful in reducing 30-day readmissions and emergency department visits. However, such programs often focus on the costliest patients with multiple morbidities and last for only 30 to 60 days postdischarge. Inexpensive monitoring of elderly patients via a personal emergency response system (PERS) to identify those at high risk for emergency hospital transport could be used to target interventions and prevent avoidable use of costly readmissions and emergency department visits after 30 to 60 days of telehealth use. OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were to (1) develop and validate a predictive model of 30-day emergency hospital transport based on PERS data; and (2) compare the model's predictions with clinical outcomes derived from the electronic health record (EHR). METHODS: We used deidentified medical alert pattern data from 290,434 subscribers to a PERS service to build a gradient tree boosting-based predictive model of 30-day hospital transport, which included predictors derived from subscriber demographics, self-reported medical conditions, caregiver network information, and up to 2 years of retrospective PERS medical alert data. We evaluated the model's performance on an independent validation cohort (n=289,426). We linked EHR and PERS records for 1815 patients from a home health care program to compare PERS-based risk scores with rates of emergency encounters as recorded in the EHR. RESULTS: In the validation cohort, 2.22% (6411/289,426) of patients had 1 or more emergency transports in 30 days. The performance of the predictive model of emergency hospital transport, as evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, was 0.779 (95% CI 0.774-0.785). Among the top 1% of predicted high-risk patients, 25.5% had 1 or more emergency hospital transports in the next 30 days. Comparison with clinical outcomes from the EHR showed 3.9 times more emergency encounters among predicted high-risk patients than low-risk patients in the year following the prediction date. CONCLUSIONS: Patient data collected remotely via PERS can be used to reliably predict 30-day emergency hospital transport. Clinical observations from the EHR showed that predicted high-risk patients had nearly four times higher rates of emergency encounters than did low-risk patients. Health care providers could benefit from our validated predictive model by targeting timely preventive interventions to high-risk patients. This could lead to overall improved patient experience, higher quality of care, and more efficient resource utilization.

Validating a Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict 30-Day Re-Admissions in Patients With Heart Failure: Protocol for a Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Big data solutions, particularly machine learning predictive algorithms, have demonstrated the ability to unlock value from data in real time in many settings outside of health care. Rapid growth in electronic medical record adoption and the shift from a volume-based to a value-based reimbursement structure in the US health care system has spurred investments in machine learning solutions. Machine learning methods can be used to build flexible, customized, and automated predictive models to optimize resource allocation and improve the efficiency and quality of health care. However, these models are prone to the problems of overfitting, confounding, and decay in predictive performance over time. It is, therefore, necessary to evaluate machine learning-based predictive models in an independent dataset before they can be adopted in the clinical practice. In this paper, we describe the protocol for independent, prospective validation of a machine learning-based model trained to predict the risk of 30-day re-admission in patients with heart failure. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to prospectively validate a machine learning-based predictive model for inpatient admissions in patients with heart failure by comparing its predictions of risk for 30-day re-admissions against outcomes observed prospectively in an independent patient cohort. METHODS: All adult patients with heart failure who are discharged alive from an inpatient admission will be prospectively monitored for 30-day re-admissions through reports generated by the electronic medical record system. Of these, patients who are part of the training dataset will be excluded to avoid information leakage to the algorithm. An expected sample size of 1228 index admissions will be required to observe a minimum of 100 30-day re-admission events. Deidentified structured and unstructured data will be fed to the algorithm, and its prediction will be recorded. The overall model performance will be assessed using the concordance statistic. Furthermore, multiple discrimination thresholds for screening high-risk patients will be evaluated according to the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and estimated cost savings to our health care system. RESULTS: The project received funding in April 2017 and data collection began in June 2017. Enrollment was completed in July 2017. Data analysis is currently underway, and the first results are expected to be submitted for publication in October 2018. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first studies to prospectively evaluate a predictive machine learning algorithm in a real-world setting. Findings from this study will help to measure the robustness of predictions made by machine learning algorithms and set a realistic benchmark for expectations of gains that can be made through its application to health care. REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER: RR1-10.2196/9466.

A machine learning model to predict the risk of 30-day readmissions in patients with heart failure: a retrospective analysis of electronic medical records data.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is one of the leading causes of hospitalization in the United States. Advances in big data solutions allow for storage, management, and mining of large volumes of structured and semi-structured data, such as complex healthcare data. Applying these advances to complex healthcare data has led to the development of risk prediction models to help identify patients who would benefit most from disease management programs in an effort to reduce readmissions and healthcare cost, but the results of these efforts have been varied. The primary aim of this study was to develop a 30-day readmission risk prediction model for heart failure patients discharged from a hospital admission. METHODS: We used longitudinal electronic medical record data of heart failure patients admitted within a large healthcare system. Feature vectors included structured demographic, utilization, and clinical data, as well as selected extracts of un-structured data from clinician-authored notes. The risk prediction model was developed using deep unified networks (DUNs), a new mesh-like network structure of deep learning designed to avoid over-fitting. The model was validated with 10-fold cross-validation and results compared to models based on logistic regression, gradient boosting, and maxout networks. Overall model performance was assessed using concordance statistic. We also selected a discrimination threshold based on maximum projected cost saving to the Partners Healthcare system. RESULTS: Data from 11,510 patients with 27,334 admissions and 6369 30-day readmissions were used to train the model. After data processing, the final model included 3512 variables. The DUNs model had the best performance after 10-fold cross-validation. AUCs for prediction models were 0.664 ± 0.015, 0.650 ± 0.011, 0.695 ± 0.016 and 0.705 ± 0.015 for logistic regression, gradient boosting, maxout networks, and DUNs respectively. The DUNs model had an accuracy of 76.4% at the classification threshold that corresponded with maximum cost saving to the hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Deep learning techniques performed better than other traditional techniques in developing this EMR-based prediction model for 30-day readmissions in heart failure patients. Such models can be used to identify heart failure patients with impending hospitalization, enabling care teams to target interventions at their most high-risk patients and improving overall clinical outcomes.

Evaluating the Impact of a Web-Based Risk Assessment System (CareSage) and Tailored Interventions on Health Care Utilization: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Soaring health care costs and a rapidly aging population, with multiple comorbidities, necessitates the development of innovative strategies to deliver high-quality, value-based care. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of a risk assessment system (CareSage) and targeted interventions on health care utilization. METHODS: This is a two-arm randomized controlled trial recruiting 370 participants from a pool of high-risk patients receiving care at a home health agency. CareSage is a risk assessment system that utilizes both real-time data collected via a Personal Emergency Response Service and historical patient data collected from the electronic medical records. All patients will first be observed for 3 months (observation period) to allow the CareSage algorithm to calibrate based on patient data. During the next 6 months (intervention period), CareSage will use a predictive algorithm to classify patients in the intervention group as "high" or "low" risk for emergency transport every 30 days. All patients flagged as "high risk" by CareSage will receive nurse triage calls to assess their needs and personalized interventions including patient education, home visits, and tele-monitoring. The primary outcome is the number of 180-day emergency department visits. Secondary outcomes include the number of 90-day emergency department visits, total medical expenses, 180-day mortality rates, time to first readmission, total number of readmissions and avoidable readmissions, 30-, 90-, and 180-day readmission rates, as well as cost of intervention per patient. The two study groups will be compared using the Student t test (two-tailed) for normally distributed and Mann Whitney U test for skewed continuous variables, respectively. The chi-square test will be used for categorical variables. Time to event (readmission) and 180-day mortality between the two study groups will be compared by using the Kaplan-Meier survival plots and the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazard regression will be used to compute hazard ratio and compare outcomes between the two groups. RESULTS: We are actively enrolling participants and the study is expected to be completed by end of 2018; results are expected to be published in early 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Innovative solutions for identifying high-risk patients and personalizing interventions based on individual risk and needs may help facilitate the delivery of value-based care, improve long-term patient health outcomes and decrease health care costs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03126565; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03126565 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6ymDuAwQA).

Health Care Cost Analyses for Exploring Cost Savings Opportunities in Older Patients: Longitudinal Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Half of Medicare reimbursement goes toward caring for the top 5% of the most expensive patients. However, little is known about these patients prior to reaching the top or how their costs change annually. To address these gaps, we analyzed patient flow and associated health care cost trends over 5 years. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost of health care utilization in older patients by analyzing changes in their long-term expenditures. METHODS: This was a retrospective, longitudinal, multicenter study to evaluate health care costs of 2643 older patients from 2011 to 2015. All patients had at least one episode of home health care during the study period and used a personal emergency response service (PERS) at home for any length of time during the observation period. We segmented all patients into top (5%), middle (6%-50%), and bottom (51%-100%) segments by their annual expenditures and built cost pyramids based thereon. The longitudinal health care expenditure trends of the complete study population and each segment were assessed by linear regression models. Patient flows throughout the segments of the cost acuity pyramids from year to year were modeled by Markov chains. RESULTS: Total health care costs of the study population nearly doubled from US $17.7M in 2011 to US $33.0M in 2015 with an expected annual cost increase of US $3.6M (P=.003). This growth was primarily driven by a significantly higher cost increases in the middle segment (US $2.3M, P=.003). The expected annual cost increases in the top and bottom segments were US $1.2M (P=.008) and US $0.1M (P=.004), respectively. Patient and cost flow analyses showed that 18% of patients moved up the cost acuity pyramid yearly, and their costs increased by 672%. This was in contrast to 22% of patients that moved down with a cost decrease of 86%. The remaining 60% of patients stayed in the same segment from year to year, though their costs also increased by 18%. CONCLUSIONS: Although many health care organizations target intensive and costly interventions to their most expensive patients, this analysis unveiled potential cost savings opportunities by managing the patients in the lower cost segments that are at risk of moving up the cost acuity pyramid. To achieve this, data analytics integrating longitudinal data from electronic health records and home monitoring devices may help health care organizations optimize resources by enabling clinicians to proactively manage patients in their home or community environments beyond institutional settings and 30- and 60-day telehealth services.

Healthcare utilization in older patients using personal emergency response systems: an analysis of electronic health records and medical alert data : Brief Description: A Longitudinal Retrospective Analyses of healthcare utilization rates in older patients using Personal Emergency Response Systems from 2011 to 2015.

BACKGROUND: Personal Emergency Response Systems (PERS) are traditionally used as fall alert systems for older adults, a population that contributes an overwhelming proportion of healthcare costs in the United States. Previous studies focused mainly on qualitative evaluations of PERS without a longitudinal quantitative evaluation of healthcare utilization in users. To address this gap and better understand the needs of older patients on PERS, we analyzed longitudinal healthcare utilization trends in patients using PERS through the home care management service of a large healthcare organization. METHODS: Retrospective, longitudinal analyses of healthcare and PERS utilization records of older patients over a 5-years period from 2011-2015. The primary outcome was to characterize the healthcare utilization of PERS patients. This outcome was assessed by 30-, 90-, and 180-day readmission rates, frequency of principal admitting diagnoses, and prevalence of conditions leading to potentially avoidable admissions based on Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services classification criteria. RESULTS: The overall 30-day readmission rate was 14.2%, 90-days readmission rate was 34.4%, and 180-days readmission rate was 42.2%. While 30-day readmission rates did not increase significantly (p = 0.16) over the study period, 90-days (p = 0.03) and 180-days (p = 0.04) readmission rates did increase significantly. The top 5 most frequent principal diagnoses for inpatient admissions included congestive heart failure (5.7%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (4.6%), dysrhythmias (4.3%), septicemia (4.1%), and pneumonia (4.1%). Additionally, 21% of all admissions were due to conditions leading to potentially avoidable admissions in either institutional or non-institutional settings (16% in institutional settings only). CONCLUSIONS: Chronic medical conditions account for the majority of healthcare utilization in older patients using PERS. Results suggest that PERS data combined with electronic medical records data can provide useful insights that can be used to improve health outcomes in older patients.

Calcium and Vitamin D Supplement Prescribing Practices among Providers Caring for Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Are We Addressing Bone Health?

Children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) have several risk factors for low bone mineral density. The gluten-free, casein-free (GFCF) diet is a complementary therapy sometimes used in ASD that raises concerns for the adequacy of calcium and vitamin D intake. This study evaluated the prescribing practices of calcium and vitamin D supplements and the practice of checking 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) levels by providers in 100 children with ASD, 50 of whom were on the GFCF diet. Fifty-two percent and 46% of children on the GFCF diet were on some form of vitamin D and calcium supplements, respectively, compared to 18% and 14% of those not on this diet. Twenty-four percent of children in the GFCF group had a documented 25(OH)D level compared to none in the non-GFCF group. The data highlight a gap in calcium and vitamin D supplement prescribing practices among providers caring for children with ASD as well as a gap in the practice of checking 25(OH)D levels.