The Long-Term Impact of Functional Disability on Hospitalization Spending in Singapore.

Singapore is one of the fastest-aging populations due to increased life expectancy and lowered fertility. Lifestyle changes increase the burden of chronic diseases and disability. These have important implications for social protection systems. The goal of this paper is to model future functional disability and healthcare expenditures based on current trends. To project the health, disability and hospitalization spending of future elders, we adapted the Future Elderly Model (FEM) to Singapore. The FEM is a dynamic Markov microsimulation model developed in the US. Our main source of population data was the Singapore Chinese Health Study (SCHS) consisting of 63,000 respondents followed up over three waves from 1993 to 2010. The FEM model enables us to investigate the effects of disability compounded over the lifecycle and hospitalization spending, while adjusting for competing risk of multi-comorbidities. Results indicate that by 2050, 1 in 6 elders in Singapore will have at least one ADL disability and 1 in 3 elders will have at least one IADL disability, an increase from 1 in 12 elders and 1 in 5 elders respectively in 2014. The highest prevalence of functional disability will be in those aged 85 years and above. Lifetime hospitalization spending of elders aged 55 and above is US$24,400 (30.2%) higher among people with functional disability compared to those without disability. Policies that successfully tackle diabetes and promote healthy living may reduce or delay the onset of disability, leading to potential saving. In addition, further technological improvements may reduce the financial burden of disability.

Measuring Sarcopenia Severity in Older Adults and the Value of Effective Interventions.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about the severity and long-term health and economic consequences of sarcopenia. We developed a sarcopenia index to measure severity in older Americans and estimated the long-term societal benefits generated by effective interventions to mitigate severity. DESIGN: Using a micro-simulation model, we quantified the potential societal value generated in the US in 2010-2040 by reductions in sarcopenia severity in older adults. All analyses were performed in Stata and SAS. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Secondary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (N = 1634) and Health and Retirement Study (HRS) (N = 952) were used to develop a sarcopenia severity index in older adults. MEASUREMENTS: Multi-trait multi-method and factor analyses were used to validate and calibrate the sarcopenia severity index, which was modeled as a function of gait speed, walking without an assistive device, and moderate physical activity. RESULTS: In representative elderly populations, reducing sarcopenia severity by improving gait speed by 0.1 m/s in those with gait speed under 0.8 m/s generated a cumulative benefit of $65B by 2040 (2015 dollars). Improving walking ability in those with walking difficulty generated cumulative social benefit of $787B by 2040. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing sarcopenia severity would generate significant health and economic benefits to society-almost $800B in the most optimistic scenarios.

The impact of state policy on the costs of HIV infection.

There is substantial variation in the generosity of public assistance programs that affect HIV+ patients, and these differences should affect the economic outcomes associated with HIV infection. This article uses data from a nationally representative sample of HIV+ patients to assess how differences across states in Medicaid and AIDS Drug Assistance Programs (ADAP) affect costs and labor market outcomes for HIV+ patients in care in that state. Making ADAP programs more generous in terms of drug coverage would reduce per patient total monthly costs, mainly through a reduction in hospitalization costs. In contrast, expanding ADAP eligibility by increasing the income threshold would increase the total cost of care. Expanding eligibility for Medicaid through the medically needy program would increase per patient total costs, but full-time employment would increase and so would monthly earnings. The authors conclude that more generous state policies toward HIV+ patients--especially those designed to provide access to efficacious treatment--could improve the economic outcomes associated with HIV.

Expenditures for the care of HIV-infected patients in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of expensive but very effective antiviral medications has led to questions about the effects on the total use of resources for the care of patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We examined expenditures for the care of HIV-infected patients since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: We interviewed a random sample of 2864 patients who were representative of all American adults receiving care for HIV infection in early 1996, and followed them for up to 36 months. We estimated the average expenditure per patient per month on the basis of self-reported information about care received. RESULTS: The mean expenditure was $1,792 per patient per month at base line, but it declined to $1,359 for survivors in 1997, since the increases in pharmaceutical expenditures were smaller than the reductions in hospital costs. Use of highly active antiretroviral therapy was independently associated with a reduction in expenditures. After adjustments for the interview date, clinical status, and deaths, the estimated annual expenditure declined from $20,300 per patient in 1996 to $18,300 in 1998. Expenditures among subgroups of patients varied by a factor of as much as three. Pharmaceutical costs were lowest and hospital costs highest among underserved groups, including blacks, women, and patients without private insurance. CONCLUSIONS: The total cost of care for adults with HIV infection has declined since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. Expenditures have increased for medications but have declined for other services. However, there are large variations in expenditures across subgroups of patients.

Use of unpaid and paid home care services among people with HIV infection in the USA.

This paper examines utilization of paid and unpaid home health care using data from a nationally representative sample of HIV-positive persons receiving medical care in early 1996 (N = 2,864). Overall, 21.0% used any home care, 12.2% used paid care and 13.6% used unpaid care. Most (70.0%) users of home care received care from only one type of provider. Substantially more hours of unpaid than paid care were used. We also found evidence of a strong association between type of service used and type of care provider: 62.4% of persons who used nursing services only received paid care only; conversely, 55.5% of persons who used personal care services only received care only from unpaid caregivers. Use of home care overall was concentrated among persons with AIDS: 39.5% of persons with AIDS received any home health care, compared to 9.5% of those at earlier disease stages. In addition to having an AIDS diagnosis, logistic regression analyses indicated that other need variables significantly increased utilization; a higher number of HIV-related symptoms, lower physical functioning, less energy, a diagnosis of CMV and a recent hospitalization each independently increased the odds of overall home care utilization. Sociodemographic variables had generally weak relationships with overall home care utilization. Among users of home care, non-need variables had more influence on use of paid than unpaid care. Both paid and unpaid home health care is a key component of community-based systems of care for people with HIV infection. The results presented in this paper are the first nationally representative estimates of home care utilization by persons with HIV/AIDS and are discussed with reference to policy and future research.

Measuring the incremental cost of clinical cancer research.

PURPOSE: To summarize evidence on the costs of treating patients in clinical trials and to describe the Cost of Cancer Treatment Study, an ongoing effort to produce generalizable estimates of the incremental costs of government-sponsored cancer trials. METHODS: A retrospective study of costs will be conducted with 1,500 cancer patients recruited from a randomly selected sample of institutions in the United States. Patients accrued to either phase II or phase III National Cancer Institute-sponsored clinical trials during a 15-month period will be asked to participate in a study of their health care utilization (n = 750). Costs will be measured approximately 1 year after their trial enrollment from a combination of billing records, medical records, and an in-person survey questionnaire. Similar data will be collected for a comparable group of cancer patients not in trials (n = 750) to provide an estimate of the incremental cost. RESULTS: Evidence suggests insurers limit access to trials because of cost concerns. Public and private efforts are underway to change these policies, but their permanent status is unclear. Previous studies found that treatment costs in clinical trials are similar to costs of standard therapy. However, it is difficult to generalize from these studies because of the unique practice settings, insufficient sample sizes, and the exclusion of potentially important costs. CONCLUSION: Denials of coverage for treatment in a clinical trial limit patient access to trials and could impede clinical research. Preliminary estimates suggest changes to these policies would not be expensive, but these results are not generalizable. The Cost of Cancer Treatment Study is an ongoing effort to provide generalizable estimates of the incremental treatment cost of phase II and phase III cancer trials. The results should be of great interest to insurers and the research community as they consider permanent ways to finance cancer trials.

Providing managed care options for a large population: evaluating the CHAMPUS reform initiative. Civilian Health and Medical Program of the Uniformed Services.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate a managed care demonstration project in CHAMPUS (Civilian Health and Medical Program of the Uniformed Services), the insurance program covering physical and mental health care services for the dependents of active duty military personnel, military retirees, and the retirees' dependents. The demonstration project added a health maintenance organization (HMO) option and a preferred provider organization (PPO) option to the standard CHAMPUS coverage and allowed beneficiaries to select the coverage option they preferred. DATA SOURCES: Utilization, costs, access, and beneficiary satisfaction were measured using data from CHAMPUS claims records, the Defense Enrollment Eligibility Reporting System, the demonstration project contractor's HMO enrollment file, the contractor's list of network hospitals, and two surveys of CHAMPUS beneficiaries. STUDY DESIGN: Changes in utilization at 11 demonstration sites were compared with changes in utilization at 11 matched control sites. The effect of the demonstration project on costs was evaluated by estimating the costs for the demonstration sites both with and without the managed care options based on data from the control sites. Access to care and satisfaction were compared between the demonstration sites and control sites based on beneficiary surveys. DATA COLLECTION: All claims in both demonstration and control sites were used in estimating utilization changes. Two mailed surveys were sent to a randomly selected sample of active duty and retiree households with CHAMPUS beneficiaries; the sample was stratified by beneficiary type (active duty or retiree) and site. PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: Overall utilization in the CHAMPUS system decreased at the demonstration sites but stayed approximately the same at the control sites. Utilization among the enrollees in the HMO demonstration option, however, increased dramatically. Patient access to care and satisfaction generally remained at the same levels at both demonstration and control sites, but enrollees in the HMO option reported higher satisfaction. Costs to the government at the demonstration areas, based on regression estimates from the control sites, were about the same or slightly higher than what they would have been under the standard CHAMPUS system. CONCLUSIONS: Managed care plans for large government-sponsored insurance programs can reduce utilization and maintain patient access and satisfaction. Careful structuring of such plans is needed, however, if they are to reduce costs.

Simulating the impact of medical savings accounts on small business.

OBJECTIVE: To simulate whether allowing small businesses to offer employer-funded medical savings accounts (MSAs) would change the amount or type of insurance coverage. STUDY SETTING: Economic policy evaluation using a national probability sample of nonelderly non-institutionalized Americans from the 1993 Current Population Survey (CPS). STUDY DESIGN: We used a behavioral simulation model to predict the effect of MSAs on the insurance choices of employees of small businesses (and their families). The model predicts spending by each family in a FFS plan, an HMO plan, an MSA, and no insurance. These predictions allow us to compute community-rated premiums for each plan, but with firm-specific load fees. Within each firm, employees then evaluate each option, and the firm decides whether to offer insurance-and what type-based on these evaluations. If firms offer insurance, we consider two scenarios: (1) all workers elect coverage; and (2) workers can decline the coverage in return for a wage increase. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the long run, under simulated conditions, tax-advantaged MSAs could attract 56 percent of all employees offered a plan by small businesses. However, the fraction of small-business employees offered insurance increases only from 41 percent to 43 percent when MSAs become an option. Many employees now signing up for a FFS plan would switch to MSAs if they were universally available. CONCLUSIONS: Our simulations suggest that MSAs will provide a limited impetus to businesses that do not currently cover insurance. However, MSAs could be desirable to workers in firms that already offer HMOs or standard FFS plans. As a result, expanding MSA availability could make it a major form of insurance for covered workers in small businesses. Overall welfare would increase slightly.

National probability samples in studies of low-prevalence diseases. Part II: Designing and implementing the HIV cost and services utilization study sample.

OBJECTIVE: The design and implementation of a nationally representative probability sample of persons with a low-prevalence disease, HIV/AIDS. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: One of the most significant roadblocks to the generalizability of primary data collected about persons with a low-prevalence disease is the lack of a complete methodology for efficiently generating and enrolling probability samples. The methodology developed by the HCSUS consortium uses a flexible, provider-based approach to multistage sampling that minimizes the quantity of data necessary for implementation. STUDY DESIGN: To produce a valid national probability sample, we combined a provider-based multistage design with the M.D.-colleague recruitment model often used in non-probability site-specific studies. DATA COLLECTION: Across the contiguous United States, reported AIDS cases for metropolitan areas and rural counties. In selected areas, caseloads for known providers for HIV patients and a random sample of other providers. For selected providers, anonymous patient visit records. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: It was possible to obtain all data necessary to implement a multistage design for sampling individual HIV-infected persons under medical care with known probabilities. Taking account of both patient and provider nonresponse, we succeeded in obtaining in-person or proxy interviews from subjects representing over 70 percent of the eligible target population. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to design and implement a national probability sample of persons with a low-prevalence disease, even if it is stigmatized.

Variations in the care of HIV-infected adults in the United States: results from the HIV Cost and Services Utilization Study.

CONTEXT: Studies of selected populations suggest that not all persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) receive adequate care. OBJECTIVE: To examine variations in the care received by a national sample representative of the adult US population infected with HIV. DESIGN: Cohort study that consisted of 3 interviews from January 1996 to January 1998 conducted by the HIV Cost and Services Utilization Consortium. PATIENTS AND SETTING: Multistage probability sample of 2864 respondents (68% of those targeted for sampling), who represent the 231400 persons at least 18 years old, with known HIV infection receiving medical care in the 48 contiguous United States in early 1996 in facilities other than emergency departments, the military, or prisons. The first follow-up consisted of 2466 respondents and the second had 2267 (65% of all surviving sampled subjects). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Service utilization (<2 ambulatory visits, at least 1 emergency department visit that did not lead to hospitalization, at least 1 hospitalization) and medication utilization (receipt of antiretroviral therapy and prophylaxis against Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia). RESULTS: Inadequate HIV care was commonly reported at the time of interviews conducted from early 1996 to early 1997 but declined to varying degrees by late 1997. Twenty-three percent of patients initially and 15% of patients subsequently had emergency department visits that did not lead to hospitalization, 30% initially and 26% subsequently of those who had CD4 cell counts below 0.20 x 10(9)/L did not receive P carinii pneumonia prophylaxis, and 41% initially and 15% subsequently of those who had CD4 cell counts below 0.50 x 10(9)/L did not receive antiretroviral therapy (protease inhibitor or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor). Inferior patterns of care were seen for many of these measures in blacks and Latinos compared with whites, the uninsured and Medicaid-insured compared with the privately insured, women compared with men, and other risk and/or exposure groups compared with men who had sex with men even after CD4 cell count adjustment. With multivariate adjustment, many differences remained statistically significant. Even by early 1998, fewer blacks, women, and uninsured and Medicaid-insured persons had started taking antiretroviral medication (CD4 cell count adjusted P values <.001 to <.005). CONCLUSIONS: Access to care improved from 1996 to 1998 but remained suboptimal. Blacks, Latinos, women, the uninsured, and Medicaid-insured all had less desirable patterns of care. Strategies to ensure optimal care for patients with HIV requires identifying the causes of deficiency and addressing these important shortcomings in care.

Variation in inpatient resource use in the treatment of HIV: do the privately insured receive more care?

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of insurance status on inpatient resource use after adjusting for health upon admission and site of care. DESIGN: Detailed patient information linked to billing records from the AIDS Cost and Service Utilization Survey (ACSUS), a longitudinal analysis of inpatient and outpatient care between March 1991 and August 1992. SETTING: Hospitalizations of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients from 10 US cities with high incidence of AIDS. PATIENTS: One thousand, nine hundred and forty nine adolescents and adults at various stages of HIV. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We estimate inpatient charges, payments and length of stay as a function of patient, and provider and reimbursement characteristics for more than 1,500 hospitalizations to HIV patients. We control for patient characteristics and underlying risk factors including disease stage, CD4 percentage, mode of transmission, discharge status, type of admission, and region. We use hospital-fixed effects to control for unmeasured differences across facilities. RESULTS: Unadjusted means indicate that uninsured patients or patients covered by public insurance have significantly lower charges and payments than privately insured patients with similar medical conditions. We find that those differences are substantially reduced after controlling for the hospital in which care is received. Further, we find little evidence that "underinsured" patients are discharged sooner on average. CONCLUSIONS: Inpatient resource use is affected by both the hospital in which care is received and the type of patient admitted. Failure to control for unmeasured differences across hospitals is likely to overstate the impact of insurance substantially.

Redistributional consequences of community rating.

OBJECTIVE: To predict the geographical effects of community rating of health insurance premiums on the amount individuals pay for insurance. DATA SOURCES: We estimate premiums and health expenditures for a 5 percent sample of Californians from the 1990 U.S. Census (the Public Use Microdata Sample) and use data from Blue Cross of California to adjust for regional price differences in services. STUDY DESIGN: We use an episodic health simulation model to estimate health expenditures for 975,074 Californians. Because the simulations do not reflect expenditure differences due to price variation in cost of services, we adjust these data for relative price differences by county. This leaves us with a sample of Californians for whom we have estimated health expenditures. We then compute average expenditures within areas of different sizes (all California, two regions, within counties) to estimate community-rated premiums. We then compare these premiums with actual expenditures on a county-by-county basis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: With a single California-wide premium, rural residents pay premiums that exceed their use of care, while urban residents pay premiums that are less than their use of care. These transfers are substantial. Dividing California into regional risk pools at the county level still results in poorer communities providing substantial subsidies to their more wealthy counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: Mandated community rating of premiums in a heterogeneous state such as California results in large unintended transfers of wealth from poorer, rural communities to urban, wealthier communities. Allowing premiums to vary with the regional cost of medical care would eliminate some of the transfers without sacrificing the benefits of community rating. Subsidies to low-income families could also effectively mitigate this redistribution. UTILITY: This article points out some potentially regressive consequences of geographic community rating and suggests ways to mitigate them.

Cryptosporidiosis in Washington State: an outbreak associated with well water.

In 1994, an outbreak of cryptosporidiosis occurred in a rural community in Washington State where water was supplied by two deep unchlorinated wells. Confirmed case-patients had a stool specimen containing Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts. Probable case-patients had diarrhea lasting > or = 5 days. Sixty-two households (68.1% of 91) responded to a survey. Eighty-six cases (15 confirmed, 71 probable) were identified, for an attack rate of 50.9% (86/169 residents). Drinking unboiled well water was associated with being a case-patient (relative risk, 1.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.89-3.82), and a significant dose-response relationship was found between water consumption and illness (P = .004). Water that was presumed to be treated wastewater from a piped irrigation system was found dripping along one well's outer casing, which was extensively rusted. Presumptive Cryptosporidium oocysts were found in well water and in treated wastewater. This investigation demonstrates that even underground water systems are vulnerable to contamination.

Can medical savings accounts for the nonelderly reduce health care costs?

OBJECTIVE: To understand how medical savings account (MSA) legislation for the nonelderly would affect health care costs. DESIGN: Economic policy evaluation based on the RAND Health Expenditures Simulation Model. SETTING: National probability sample of nonelderly noninstitutionalized households. PARTICIPANTS: Persons in 23 157 sampled households from the 1993 Current Population Survey. INTERVENTIONS: Medical savings account legislation would allow all Americans who are covered only by a catastrophic health care plan to set up a tax-exempt account that they can use to pay medical bills not covered by their health insurance. The interventions we evaluate differ in the deductibles of the catastrophic plan and in whether the employee or employer funds the MSA. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in national health expenditures and net societal benefits of health care. RESULTS: If all insured nonelderly Americans switched to MSAs, their health care expenditures would decline by between 0% and 13%, depending on how the MSAs are designed. However, not all nonelderly Americans would choose MSAs; taking into account selection patterns, health spending would change by + 1% to -2%. CONCLUSIONS: Medical savings account legislation would have little impact on health care costs of Americans with employer-provided insurance. However, depending on the size of the catastrophic limit, waste from the excessive use of generously insured care could be reduced, and MSAs would be attractive to both sick and healthy people.

The effects of benefit design and managed care on health care costs.

Recently, the Department of Defense replaced its traditional fee-for-service insurance plan for military health care beneficiaries with an HMO/PPO hybrid. Using survey and claims data, we compare changes in costs over two years at sites that implemented this initiative (CRI) with changes at matched control sites. The results indicate that CRI substantially raised per beneficiary government costs for providing benefits (as compared to predicted costs in the absence of CRI). We attribute this difference to the higher overhead of managed care and the increased expenditures by HMO participants.

Managed care as a public cost-containment mechanism.

This article identifies the impact of managed-care reforms on the utilization of medical services within the military health-services system. The data come from a recent demonstration project that substituted an HMO and PPO for traditional FFS arrangements. Results from a semiparametric model indicate that the generosity of benefits in the HMO increased demand for ambulatory services. Unlike the private-sector experience with managed care, aggressive utilization review did not significantly curtail inpatient stays. These results vitiate the presumed effectiveness of reform strategies that rely on large, geographically diffused managed-care networks to contain public-sector health costs.

Job loss due to health insurance mandates.

The proposed Health Security Act provides universal health insurance by extending the current employer-based health insurance financing system. It requires employers to pay approximately 80% of the health insurance premium for each of their workers. Experience with other legislation requiring employers to provide benefits to their employees indicates that most of the cost of a mandated benefit is shifted to employees in the form of lower wages. However, for workers without health insurance and with earnings close to the minimum wage, minimum-wage legislation prohibits employers from lowering wages in response to a health insurance mandate. These employers can be expected to respond by cutting employment. Recent evidence from employer reactions to increases in the minimum wage suggests that approximately 100,000 jobs would be lost due to the Health Security Act's employer mandate.

Human ehrlichiosis: a newly recognized tick-borne disease.

Human ehrlichiosis was first described in the United States in 1986. Since then, more than 215 cases have been reported, including some fatalities. Ehrlichia species belong to the same family as the organism that causes Rocky Mountain spotted fever. Human ehrlichiosis occurs most frequently in the southern mid-Atlantic and south-central states, during spring and summer months. The clinical presentation is similar to that seen in Rocky Mountain spotted fever although, with ehrlichiosis, leukopenia is more often found and skin rash is less often noted. Definitive diagnosis is based on acute and convalescent serum antibody titers. Ehrlichiosis cannot reliably be distinguished from other common febrile illnesses on the basis of clinical, epidemiologic or laboratory features. Therapy must be initiated empirically in suspected cases. Both ehrlichiosis and Rocky Mountain spotted fever respond well to tetracycline and chloramphenicol, but not to penicillins or cephalosporins.