Measurement error, time lag, unmeasured confounding: Considerations for longitudinal estimation of the effect of a mediator in randomised clinical trials.

Clinical trials are expensive and time-consuming and so should also be used to study how treatments work, allowing for the evaluation of theoretical treatment models and refinement and improvement of treatments. These treatment processes can be studied using mediation analysis. Randomised treatment makes some of the assumptions of mediation models plausible, but the mediator-outcome relationship could remain subject to bias. In addition, mediation is assumed to be a temporally ordered longitudinal process, but estimation in most mediation studies to date has been cross-sectional and unable to explore this assumption. This study used longitudinal structural equation modelling of mediator and outcome measurements from the PACE trial of rehabilitative treatments for chronic fatigue syndrome (ISRCTN 54285094) to address these issues. In particular, autoregressive and simplex models were used to study measurement error in the mediator, different time lags in the mediator-outcome relationship, unmeasured confounding of the mediator and outcome, and the assumption of a constant mediator-outcome relationship over time. Results showed that allowing for measurement error and unmeasured confounding were important. Contemporaneous rather than lagged mediator-outcome effects were more consistent with the data, possibly due to the wide spacing of measurements. Assuming a constant mediator-outcome relationship over time increased precision.

Comparison of adaptive pacing therapy, cognitive behaviour therapy, graded exercise therapy, and specialist medical care for chronic fatigue syndrome (PACE): a randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Trial findings show cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) and graded exercise therapy (GET) can be effective treatments for chronic fatigue syndrome, but patients' organisations have reported that these treatments can be harmful and favour pacing and specialist health care. We aimed to assess effectiveness and safety of all four treatments. METHODS: In our parallel-group randomised trial, patients meeting Oxford criteria for chronic fatigue syndrome were recruited from six secondary-care clinics in the UK and randomly allocated by computer-generated sequence to receive specialist medical care (SMC) alone or with adaptive pacing therapy (APT), CBT, or GET. Primary outcomes were fatigue (measured by Chalder fatigue questionnaire score) and physical function (measured by short form-36 subscale score) up to 52 weeks after randomisation, and safety was assessed primarily by recording all serious adverse events, including serious adverse reactions to trial treatments. Primary outcomes were rated by participants, who were necessarily unmasked to treatment assignment; the statistician was masked to treatment assignment for the analysis of primary outcomes. We used longitudinal regression models to compare SMC alone with other treatments, APT with CBT, and APT with GET. The final analysis included all participants for whom we had data for primary outcomes. This trial is registered at http://isrctn.org, number ISRCTN54285094. FINDINGS: We recruited 641 eligible patients, of whom 160 were assigned to the APT group, 161 to the CBT group, 160 to the GET group, and 160 to the SMC-alone group. Compared with SMC alone, mean fatigue scores at 52 weeks were 3·4 (95% CI 1·8 to 5·0) points lower for CBT (p = 0·0001) and 3·2 (1·7 to 4·8) points lower for GET (p = 0·0003), but did not differ for APT (0·7 [-0·9 to 2·3] points lower; p = 0·38). Compared with SMC alone, mean physical function scores were 7·1 (2·0 to 12·1) points higher for CBT (p = 0·0068) and 9·4 (4·4 to 14·4) points higher for GET (p = 0·0005), but did not differ for APT (3·4 [-1·6 to 8·4] points lower; p=0·18). Compared with APT, CBT and GET were associated with less fatigue (CBT p = 0·0027; GET p = 0·0059) and better physical function (CBT p=0·0002; GET p<0·0001). Subgroup analysis of 427 participants meeting international criteria for chronic fatigue syndrome and 329 participants meeting London criteria for myalgic encephalomyelitis yielded equivalent results. Serious adverse reactions were recorded in two (1%) of 159 participants in the APT group, three (2%) of 161 in the CBT group, two (1%) of 160 in the GET group, and two (1%) of 160 in the SMC-alone group. INTERPRETATION: CBT and GET can safely be added to SMC to moderately improve outcomes for chronic fatigue syndrome, but APT is not an effective addition. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Department of Health for England, Scottish Chief Scientist Office, Department for Work and Pensions.

Clinical and cost-effectiveness analysis of an open label, single-centre, randomised trial of spinal cord stimulation (SCS) versus percutaneous myocardial laser revascularisation (PMR) in patients with refractory angina pectoris: The SPiRiT trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with refractory angina have significant morbidity. This study aimed to compare two of the treatment options, Spinal Cord Stimulation (SCS) and Percutaneous Myocardial Laser Revascularisation (PMR) in terms of clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness. METHODS: Eligible patients were randomised to PMR or SCS and followed up for exercise tolerance time (ETT), Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) classification and the quality of life measures SF-36, Seattle Angina Questionnaire and the EuroQoL at 3, 12 and 24 months. Utilities were calculated using the EQ-5D and these and costs were compared between groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY for SCS compared to PMR was also calculated. RESULTS: At 24 months post-randomisation, patients that had SCS and PMR had similar ETT (mean difference 0.05, 95% CI -2.08, 2.18, p = 0.96) and there was no difference in CCS classification or quality of life outcomes. The difference in overall mean costs when comparing SCS to PMR was GBP5,520 (95% CI GBP1,966 to GBP8,613; p < 0.01) and the ICER of using SCS was GBP46,000 per QALY. CONCLUSION: Outcomes after SCS did not differ appreciably from those after PMR, with the former procedure being less cost-effective as currently applied. Larger studies could clarify which patients would most benefit from SCS, potentially increasing cost-effectiveness. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN09648950.

Herpes simplex virus with highly reduced gD levels can efficiently enter and spread between human keratinocytes.

The rapid spread of herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) in mucosal epithelia and neuronal tissue depends primarily on the ability of the virus to navigate within polarized cells and the tissues they constitute. To understand HSV entry and the spread of virus across cell junctions, we have previously characterized a human keratinocyte cell line, HaCaT. These cells appear to reflect cells infected in vivo more accurately than many of the cultured cells used to propagate HSV. HSV mutants lacking gE/gI are highly compromised in spread within epithelial and neuronal tissues and also show defects in cell-to-cell spread in HaCaT cells, but not in other, nonpolarized cells. HSV gD is normally considered absolutely essential for entry and cell-to-cell spread, both in cultured cells and in vivo. Here, an HSV-1 gD mutant virus, F-US6kan, was found to efficiently enter HaCaT cells and normal human keratinocytes and could spread from cell to cell without gD provided by complementing cells. By contrast, entry and spread into other cells, especially highly transformed cells commonly used to propagate HSV, were extremely inefficient. Further analyses of F-US6kan indicated that this mutant expressed extraordinarily low (1/500 wild-type) levels of gD. Neutralizing anti-gD monoclonal antibodies inhibited entry of F-US6kan, suggesting F-US6kan utilized this small amount of gD to enter cells. HaCaT cells expressed high levels of an HSV gD receptor, HveC, and entry of F-US6kan into HaCaT cells could also be inhibited with antibodies specific for HveC. Interestingly, anti-HveC antibodies were not fully able to inhibit entry of wild-type HSV-1 into HaCaT cells. These results help to uncover important properties of HSV and human keratinocytes. HSV, with exceedingly low levels of a crucial receptor-binding glycoprotein, can enter cells expressing high levels of receptor. In this case, surplus gD may be useful to avoid neutralization by anti-gD antibodies.

Effect of fat retention on the rachitogenic effect of rye fed to broiler chicks.

Two experiments were conducted to determine the influence of fat retention on bone mineralization and amino acid retention for broiler chicks fed rye diets containing marginal levels of vitamin D3. In Experiment 1, rye diets containing tallow were supplemented with high vitamin D3, bile salt (sodium taurocholate), or a detergent (sodium lauryl sulphate). Fat retention and tibia ash were improved (P less than .05) with bile salt addition, and tibia ash alone (P less than .05) was improved when high vitamin D3 or the detergent was added to the diet. In Experiment 2, rye diets contained tricaprylin (TC), tristearin (TS), or triolein (TO) as a fat source. Both fat retention (TS less than TO less than TC) and tibia ash (TS less than TC less than TO) showed a significant (P less than .05) treatment effect. The results of both experiments support the hypothesis that the rachitogenic effect of feeding rye may be related to inadequate fat digestion. There was no significant treatment effect on amino acid retention in either experiment. A third experiment indicated a similar bile acid pool size for chicks fed rye as opposed to wheat; however, bile acid concentration of jejunal fluid was lower (P less than .05) for chicks fed rye. A possible microbial involvement in the disturbance of bile acid metabolism was indicated by the capacity of Streptococcus organisms derived from chick small bowel to degrade sodium taurocholate.